REX to transition to ATRs, start domestic jet ops

[ebt]

My recollection back to the Jetstream and Fokker 50 days was that RPT was the BASE for Skywest, not FIFO. That came later. There was only ONE jet charter operator at Perth airport and that was NJS. Alliance started with one F100 to Mt Keith. Skywest were late to the FIFO party.

XR was doing FIFO for Rio Tinto's Argyle Diamond mine before QQ came west - that was what got them into F100s in the first place. When QQ came west, they wanted to be able to tap XR's parts store.

That aside, if you are not making money doing FIFO, you're doing it wrong. RPT is much harder as the operator bears all the risk. Rex are buggered because they haven't kept up with the market when it comes to pay, and now whine about losing pilots and engineers to those who are willing to pay more. If they couldn't see that coming a few months ago and did something about it, then it is their own damn fault. And with Qantas moving onto the Rex network they should have done something about it rather than just whine and cut routes. That's what management should be paid for, you would think.

[43Inches]

Pay is only a small part of the problem wrt to Rex pilots leaving, its more about treatment and lifestyle. Economics will never allow a SAAB operator to compete for crew on a 'pay' basis with 737+ operators. But for a long time now they have been squeezing what was a fairly part time job into full time pilot hours, doing 6 hours a day for 4 days a week would be fine for current pay. Do jet job hours and rosters for turboprop pay, and the proof is in the pudding, mass exodus whenever the opportunity presents itself... I used to think the management there had some idea, turns out they just ran what was left of Ansett into the ground sucking whatever was left from the stone. That is they took something most anyone could have profit from and just cut costs to keep it afloat until the wheels fall off, the last ten years have seen pitiful management, and that is mostly in the role of staff management and retention. I remember hearing when they slashed the pay of a sim instructor, and thought, these guys want to run a high flow, through training airline, and are stupid enough that they don't recognize they have to pay the training staff more to keep up the rates.... It's like somebody within management there is actively working against the airline now.

[Ladloy]

Pay is only a small part of the problem wrt to Rex pilots leaving, its more about treatment and lifestyle. Economics will never allow a SAAB operator to compete for crew on a 'pay' basis with 737+ operators. But for a long time now they have been squeezing what was a fairly part time job into full time pilot hours, doing 6 hours a day for 4 days a week would be fine for current pay. Do jet job hours and rosters for turboprop pay, and the proof is in the pudding, mass exodus whenever the opportunity presents itself... I used to think the management there had some idea, turns out they just ran what was left of Ansett into the ground sucking whatever was left from the stone. That is they took something most anyone could have profit from and just cut costs to keep it afloat until the wheels fall off, the last ten years have seen pitiful management, and that is mostly in the role of staff management and retention. I remember hearing when they slashed the pay of a sim instructor, and thought, these guys want to run a high flow, through training airline, and are stupid enough that they don't recognize they have to pay the training staff more to keep up the rates.... It's like somebody within management there is actively working against the airline now.
Pay will be a huge issue going forward. The bew cadetship agreement is 9 years, 150k loan and 50k balloon payment at the end. How does a cadet survive on 50k while paying a cadet loan and expected to live in a capital city?
They will struggle to find willing participants.

[Icarus2001]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1366x958/img_0987_25a8c2a1a8143a272a722d9c382f8e391236e599.jpeg
Well that is what the market thought of REX yesterday. Around a 13% drop in the share price. The graph shows five years of activity.
There is no question that their jet plan relied on Virgin being out of the market. I am not sure they had a contingency for if Virgin continued to operate.

[PoppaJo]

Pay will be a huge issue going forward. The bew cadetship agreement is 9 years, 150k loan and 50k balloon payment at the end. How does a cadet survive on 50k while paying a cadet loan and expected to live in a capital city?
They will struggle to find willing participants.
9 years is a long time in Rex. Many will be knocking on Virgin and J* door well before then. Or another Emirates exodus again.

[Ladloy]

9 years is a long time in Rex. Many will be knocking on Virgin and J* door well before then. Or another Emirates exodus again.
They are so confident in the new agreement they are still advertising 7 years on the FAQ

[Deano969]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1366x958/img_0987_25a8c2a1a8143a272a722d9c382f8e391236e599.jpeg
Well that is what the market thought of REX yesterday. Around a 13% drop in the share price. The graph shows five years of activity.
There is no question that their jet plan relied on Virgin being out of the market. I am not sure they had a contingency for if Virgin continued to operate.

Given that in 2020 VA were less than 50/50 to survive and become the next AN, REX would have had rocks in it's head not to take a chance on filling the potential void
1) Covid impact would not last forever
2) Big chance VA were history
3) Even if VA were saver it was looking like the revived airline would resemble Ansett Mark 2
3) Plenty of cheap 737s available, along with crew

Very few people counted on what Bain managed to achieve with VA though

This obviously left REX in a dilemma as to which way to go forward
Rather than a rapid growth to 30+ frames, they slowed growth way down and seem to be doing ok thus far

Where did they go wrong ?
They took a punt on VA going busto

That said, I have thought all along that their disconnected regional network was too reliant on their interline deal with VA in the first place
Even without the VA potential collapse, they could likely have put 30-40 pax on their 737s just from connecting pax they gave to VA, eg Wagga to Brisbane, add another 70-80 walk ups and you at least break even

Now REX will open new routes and add frequencies gradually topping up their fleet with 2-4 frames per year

As far as I am concerned, they have adapted well

[Icarus2001]

How long can they lose $35 million per annum for?

[Ladloy]

How long can they lose $35 million per annum for?
Deano will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're past halfway in their convertible shares, so less than 70 mil to tap into. 2 years if PAG decide they hate money

[43Inches]

Deano will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're past halfway in their convertible shares, so less than 70 mil to tap into. 2 years if PAG decide they hate money

They will have to change their name to 'NAG' if they want to continue to back these kind of horses...Sorry, had to say it.

[Deano969]

Deano will correct me if I'm wrong, but they're past halfway in their convertible shares, so less than 70 mil to tap into. 2 years if PAG decide they hate money

The $150 million was always there to be used

[PoppaJo]

Once the cash is exhausted, I understand PAG get a 49% stake, plus one board seat.

[Ladloy]

The $150 million was always there to be used
I don't think it's being used the way they wanted it to be used though. You said it yourself, the expansion has slowed considerably.

[Wizofoz]

I don't think it's being used the way they wanted it to be used though. You said it yourself, the expansion has slowed considerably.

Do you mean of the jet operation? Not really- it's going ahead as quickly as they can find frames and train crews- the aim was 10-11 frames this year- 8 and 9 arrive in the next few weeks.

[sandsthrudahrglass]

has a new 737 payscale come in???

[VH-RME]

Apparently EBA is in the works - anyone know anything more?

[MikeHatter732]

Looks like its in the queue at FWC waiting to be approved.

REX AIRLINES DOMESTIC PILOTS’ ENTERPRISE AGREEMENT 2022 (https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/agreement-applications/ag2023_2109.pdf)
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1472x544/msedge_piavbcv7dc_3a8e28d91d68646d8af9b1518ba5c5e65e0e0643.p ng

[SHVC]

That’s bloody rough no pay rise for the first two yrs.

[Ladloy]

That’s bloody rough no pay rise for the first two yrs.
Don't act surprised. They're happy to fleece the kids of management pilots during their cadetship.

[Brakerider]

Looks like its in the queue at FWC waiting to be approved.

REX AIRLINES DOMESTIC PILOTS’ ENTERPRISE AGREEMENT 2022 (https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/agreement-applications/ag2023_2109.pdf)
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1472x544/msedge_piavbcv7dc_3a8e28d91d68646d8af9b1518ba5c5e65e0e0643.p ng

this is embarrassing money to fly a 70t jet. SAAB captains would be earning more.

[brokenagain]

It’s a disgrace that something like that gets voted up in the current climate. We really are our own worst enemy.

[MickG0105]

this is embarrassing money to fly a 70t jet. SAAB captains would be earning more.
SAAB Captains aren't even close to that.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/995x726/screenshot_20230705_104114_adobe_acrobat_e98860d7ec2f31d4de0 b50e70d7b282b2ab13817.jpg
https://www.fwc.gov.au/document-search?q=%22Regional+express+pilots%22&options=SearchType_3%2CSortOrder_agreement-relevance#

[transition_alt]

SAAB Captains aren't even close to that.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/995x726/screenshot_20230705_104114_adobe_acrobat_e98860d7ec2f31d4de0 b50e70d7b282b2ab13817.jpg
https://www.fwc.gov.au/document-search?q=%22Regional+express+pilots%22&options=SearchType_3%2CSortOrder_agreement-relevance#

I wouldn't be taking that as gospel. Saab captains are well and truly earning over $200k a year.

[43Inches]

SAAB Captains aren't even close to that.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/995x726/screenshot_20230705_104114_adobe_acrobat_e98860d7ec2f31d4de0 b50e70d7b282b2ab13817.jpg
https://www.fwc.gov.au/document-search?q=%22Regional+express+pilots%22&options=SearchType_3%2CSortOrder_agreement-relevance#

You can add $40k to a Captain who does the bare minimum per year and another $150k for those that ride the system and max out their overtime. I know people at Rex that have earned on both ends of that scale. Also those figures just increased by 4%.

[MickG0105]

I wouldn't be taking that as gospel. Saab captains are well and truly earning over $200k a year.
How do they manage that under the current EBA?

​​Here's the schedule of additional allowances.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/578x794/screenshot_20230705_110324_adobe_acrobat_d52b95f9b245110e360 651daf2c94c5727105155.jpg

[43Inches]

How do they manage that under the current EBA?

​​Here's the schedule of additional allowances.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/578x794/screenshot_20230705_110324_adobe_acrobat_d52b95f9b245110e360 651daf2c94c5727105155.jpg

You are missing the payments for reclaiming RDOs (13% per year)$13k-$18k, DTA up to $30k per year, meal allowances up to $5k per year, multiple extension, over CAO allowance, callouts, working from leave, etc etc all adds up way over $100k extra. That is what SAAB captains ARE earning, now the 737 crew hopefully have similar allowances netting them over that hopefully. Like I said before a savvy SAAB Captain can earn up to $150k extra above the base.

[MickG0105]

Then it sounds like comparing the $202K base for B737 Captains to the total take-home of $200+K for SAAB Captains isn't exactly apples and apples.

[43Inches]

Nothing is apples and apples, when you compare two companies, as the allowances and lifestyle clauses all make a big difference. No point saying you could earn $200k but everyones on 50% salary due to the company doing poorly. Or your base is $200k, but that includes everything, and someone on $150k base is earning $300k for the same workload. This is another area where Australians get smashed in industrial relations as the word 'package' does not figure, mostly just what is my salary. In the US the package is important, as you need good medical, leave and retirement clauses. Australia is really no different now, as you wont get pension until you are 70, and face it you wont live a lot longer than that after a life of shift work and solar radiation, so getting a lot of super is becoming more important. Even things like time to command are important as whats the point of comparing what an FO gets, if you will be a Captain in 4 years where at the other place it might be 20 years in the RH seat at 20% less than a Captain at the other....

Hence as I said in another thread a proper union should have package comparisons, so that you can compare the overall deal.

[smiling monkey]

Looks like its in the queue at FWC waiting to be approved.

REX AIRLINES DOMESTIC PILOTS’ ENTERPRISE AGREEMENT 2022 (https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/agreement-applications/ag2023_2109.pdf)
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1472x544/msedge_piavbcv7dc_3a8e28d91d68646d8af9b1518ba5c5e65e0e0643.p ng

On the FO side, JQ is only slightly better than Rex FO but Rex at least pays their FOs during training. Surely JQ boys and girls can match Rex's FO training pay at the next EBA negotiations?

[Seriously]

Those salaries are increased by 5.75% as per clause 40.2

[Australopithecus]

When are we ever going to talk about basic pay, NOT meal allowance and extra pay for working days off or leave? Those pay scales are a joke.

[transition_alt]

When are we ever going to talk about basic pay, NOT meal allowance and extra pay for working days off or leave? Those pay scales are a joke.

Bottom line is Rex’s base pay is terrible.

However, the way Rex’s crewing and rostering work, these things need to be taken into account.
Theoretically, if you only worked as your roster said, you’d probably earn between $15-30k above the base for 600-700 hours a year.

A savvy Captain, can turn that into 500 hours (yes, working less) a year and an additional $100k-150k pretty easily by knowing the way things work.

[43Inches]

When are we ever going to talk about basic pay, NOT meal allowance and extra pay for working days off or leave? Those pay scales are a joke.

Your pay package includes all of that, like I said compare the whole package, if you just compare base salaries you will probably be on less than somebody with a good total package. Airlines will con you by saying their base is better, then pay you measly allowances. Poor allowances and penalty payments mean you will get your ass worked as hard as possible, as it will be cheaper to work you to the bone than employ new pilots. Add FRMS without good penalties and OT allowances and you will be in a working hell... (Jet*)

If you looked at QF international salaries only without allowances you would be missing a huge chunk of their income. That was a big difference when VA started Crz FOs and such, you could be seeing similar Base salary and $100k difference in allowances in those environments.

Then you really need to know what actual workload the company will offer, as you have a lot of income based on workload, so if you are not working you could be on half pay working only to minimum guaranteed hours, which could be quite low if you don't read the fine print. Thats when you get conned with the *equivalent full time pay, meaning if you did work full hours you would get that, but you were employed on schedule B that only gets half that guaranteed.

Usually somebody telling you to only compare base salaries is management from one of the lower end companies...

Theoretically, if you only worked as your roster said, you’d probably earn between $15-30k above the base for 600-700 hours a year.

From What I hear absolute minimum would be additions of about $30K-$40K, half of which is tax free. You'd have to be not flying to earn much less than that. That assumes you claim everything entitled to you, something you need to do at Rex.

PS most loan agencies and the like are on to this now, they don't care about base salary figures, they want to know what your take home pay was, ie actual income. With pay slips as proof that you actually get that from your employer.

[Switchbait]

43 Inches, the style of work program you are promoting is all that is wrong with aviation in Australia.

To earn decent money at Rex on the SAAB, you must sacrifice any hope of a decent lifestyle and your self respect.

The salary package combined with the system of claims, (purely designed to get out of paying what you are owed), is a disgrace, reflected by their lack of ability to retain pilots, or attract new ones.

Absolute bottom dwellers.

[43Inches]

43 Inches, the style of work program you are promoting is all that is wrong with aviation in Australia.

To earn decent money at Rex on the SAAB, you must sacrifice any hope of a decent lifestyle and your self respect.

The salary package combined with the system of claims, (purely designed to get out of paying what you are owed), is a disgrace, reflected by their lack of ability to retain pilots, or attract new ones.

Absolute bottom dwellers.

I will repeat for the hard of hearing, I'm not promoting or saying the Rex deal is good, and have said numerous times they need to do better, especially in the lifestyle part. Laying out what they earn is just being truthful, I suggest you put down what your airline experience pays you and what you get as real pay, not what the EBA says. but what you end up with in reality, then we can see where pilots should be aiming for. I'm still yet to see anyone post that, just random base salaries that mean nothing. As I said earlier I'm all for a Union that lays bare what each airline actually offers, base+allowances+leave+super for what workload. There are some sites that try, but they are very fudgy with Australian airlines. Or are there a number of pilots out there embarrassed at what they accepted to fly the shiny jet they always dreamed of? I know Jet* flogs you for the money you get, VA does as well, it is better than the SAAB for sure, but what are the pros and cons of earning that extra $100k?

A savvy Captain, can turn that into 500 hours (yes, working less) a year and an additional $100k-150k pretty easily by knowing the way things work.

And there is that, if you really know your EBA at places like Rex you can earn more for less work.... Work smarter, not harder as they say. From experience once you get into larger airlines it can be harder to twist the crewing officers to what you want, so you may get paid more but you are more likely to fly the roster they give you without alteration. But the bidding processes are better, especially once you get seniority, so the roster is more what you wanted anyway.

[A320 Flyer]

I suggest you put down what your airline experience pays you and what you get as real pay, not what the EBA says.

286,680 all in

237,333 gross taxable

Difference in allowances and super

That’s for just over 800 stick hrs and I only took 4 weeks leave thought the year

That’s roughly 67 stick hrs per 4 week bid period flown

I’m sitting in the RHS domestic (and not flying an A320 anymore….. same size though)

[43Inches]

286,680 all in

237,333 gross taxable

Difference in allowances and super

That’s for just over 800 stick hrs and I only took 4 weeks leave thought the year

That’s roughly 67 stick hrs per 4 week bid period flown

I’m sitting in the RHS domestic (and not flying an A320 anymore….. same size though)

I'd call that a reasonable reward for the work done, and sounds more like mainline QF than VA current arrangements. It's the sort of amount I'd want to see as a minimum for 737/A320 FOs. How does that compare to what one would earn at say NJS or Alliance, and dare I say some takers from Easterns or Sunstate?

[Australopithecus]

That’s $272/hr including vacation pay. (871 hrs total credit). I believe you are at the top of Australian narrow body right seat pay and still grossly underpaid at that.

Anyone who advocates counting meal allowances etc does not understand that they are about expense reimbursement, not additional pay.

[43Inches]

Anyone who advocates counting meal allowances etc does not understand that they are about expense reimbursement, not additional pay.

Not sure what you are arguing there, all allowances are some form of reimbursement. If it's part of an EBA, it's an entitlement in your pay packet, it's all pay! Some EBA those items are built into your base salary, so it's important to note what EBAs have and which do not. And OT meal claims are not reimbursements they are generally an inconvenience fee for missing a break allowance. So if your company only assigns minimum break periods and you run 1 minute late into that break, you get the meal allowance, it's poorly named I know.

You probably won't have much of a medical if you went through $120-$200 a shift in meals.

[Ladloy]

Not sure what you are arguing there, all allowances are some form of reimbursement. If it's part of an EBA, it's an entitlement in your pay packet, it's all pay! Some EBA those items are built into your base salary, so it's important to note what EBAs have and which do not. And OT meal claims are not reimbursements they are generally an inconvenience fee for missing a break allowance. So if your company only assigns minimum break periods and you run 1 minute late into that break, you get the meal allowance, it's poorly named I know.

You probably won't have much of a medical if you went through $120-$200 a shift in meals.
I'd be so interested to know who you are at rex. We must speak to different people at the company.

[43Inches]

I'd be so interested to know who you are at rex. We must speak to different people at the company.

Not at Rex anymore, but know a lot that are still there. Also have worked at QLink, if that helps, and now somewhere else, bigger.

If you don't get it, QLink has an EBA coming up, they might need a bit of a shove up to get the balls to bring their pay and conditions up to standard. Playing down what the competition is earning won't help. I feel they need a step up of at least 20% to be where they should be starting from.

[Colonel_Klink]

That’s $272/hr including vacation pay. (871 hrs total credit). I believe you are at the top of Australian narrow body right seat pay and still grossly underpaid at that.


That figure puts the Captain on $360k for the year assuming the FO is 66% the hourly rate of the skipper.

So what should a domestic narrow body Captain and FO be paid for doing 800 hours a year?

[Australopithecus]

I believe the legacy carrier benchmark in the US is currently at US$ 450,000+ extras. (~AUD675K) Australia is a higher cost country. The US airline pilot unions are militant and their members enjoy the benefits of that. Contrast that to the local dynamics and you get the local crap pay.

As to what is fair: Whatever the market will bear given the industrial laws and the backbone of the union membership.

I get something close to $360/hr. That’s after at least three years of pay freezes in my career and increases below inflation. Absent those things my rate of pay would be over $400/hr.

I think $450k is a reasonable number. But I wonder why I should accept less than our colleagues overseas when our fares are at least as high and the CEO is the highest paid airline exec in the world? For running down an airline that was ranked 18in the world by fleet size to 38th in ten years.

As far as the LCCs go…who else takes lower pay for the same work to offset the employer's revenue model? The difference between my pay and a JQ captain's pay is what? 50c per seat per hour?

And by the way…I think a Dash 8 skipper should get at least $200K based on seats and speed.

[43Inches]

The US pilots deserve as much as they can get, especially at the lower echelons. $450K does sound very high though, although I would not complain and if they can get more why not.

And yes, Dash and SAAB skippers should be closer to $200k as a minimum, not after all considered and working your ass off. The proof is in the pudding though, no one wants to fly for those companies, at least not for long and only as a stepping stone.

If you took CPI increases as a minimum then SAAB Captains should be on closer to $160k base and Dash Captains at least $180k. However that does not account for the lifestyle changes to these operations over the years, with more layovers and FRMS implementation. So the figure of around $200K is probably where they should be. Can't afford it? Well whats less affordable, paying pilots more so that you have flights, or not having any pilots and a lot of grounded aircraft.

The regionals have to make a big decision if they want to stay in business. Look at base salaries north of $200k for Captains AND 10-12 days off to attract/retain senior staff, or, shut the doors and go manage a fish & chip shop.

[Ladloy]

Is it true that overtime is based on the load factor for rexjet crew?

[ewxpress]

Basic economics, money talks or people walk. Basic Economics.

[Australopithecus]

The US pilots deserve as much as they can get, especially at the lower echelons. $450K does sound very high though, although I would not complain and if they can get more why not.

And yes, Dash and SAAB skippers should be closer to $200k as a minimum, not after all considered and working your ass off. The proof is in the pudding though, no one wants to fly for those companies, at least not for long and only as a stepping stone.

If you took CPI increases as a minimum then SAAB Captains should be on closer to $160k base and Dash Captains at least $180k. However that does not account for the lifestyle changes to these operations over the years, with more layovers and FRMS implementation. So the figure of around $200K is probably where they should be. Can't afford it? Well whats less affordable, paying pilots more so that you have flights, or not having any pilots and a lot of grounded aircraft.

The regionals have to make a big decision if they want to stay in business. Look at base salaries north of $200k for Captains AND 10-12 days off to attract/retain senior staff, or, shut the doors and go manage a fish & chip shop.


Here's some more data points for you: In 1980 I flew a 55 pax aeroplane at 280 kts and was paid $60K. (~1000 hrs)That was around three times an average 1980 salary. That equates to $221,000 now. That aircraft could generate 28,600 revenue passenger kilometres an hour. A Dash 8-400 can generate 48,000 rpk/hour.

My next door neighbour is a small time builder doing renos and small extensions. He uses 2 or 3 contractors and makes $250K himself. Home by 4 every day, every weekend off. You get the idea. But sadly, its not a sexy job.

[43Inches]

Yes, makes sense. When I was talking Dash-8 I meant the 100-300, which yes would put the -400 another $20k up again, so $220,000 for a Q400 Captain is reasonable. The issue with QLink dash operation was always the rift between Easterns and Sunstate, and no more evident than at EBA time. If DiVosh was still with us he could attest to that as he was directly involved in the negotiations there. We had more than one conversation about how they were pushing '****e' uphill at negotiations, that's around when DHA was introduced as QLink was playing silly buggers by providing meals rather than letting pilots claim for them. Things like using the Q400 fleet locations to swing one pilot body against the other.

[davidclarke]

Yes, makes sense. When I was talking Dash-8 I meant the 100-300, which yes would put the -400 another $20k up again, so $220,000 for a Q400 Captain is reasonable. The issue with QLink dash operation was always the rift between Easterns and Sunstate, and no more evident than at EBA time. If DiVosh was still with us he could attest to that as he was directly involved in the negotiations there. We had more than one conversation about how they were pushing '****e' uphill at negotiations, that's around when DHA was introduced as QLink was playing silly buggers by providing meals rather than letting pilots claim for them. Things like using the Q400 fleet locations to swing one pilot body against the other.

Under the new multi employer bargaining rules would Easterns and Sunstate be able to bargin as one??

[43Inches]

Under the new multi employer bargaining rules would Easterns and Sunstate be able to bargin as one??

There's nothing at all stopping them working together before or now, except the division between the pilots themselves. The issue is that due to basing differences there are different needs/wants between the two. Sunnies being more related to QLD basing wants and needs, and Easterns more in the south, VIC/SA and a sort of sharing of NSW. This is where it comes back to EBAs being way more complicated than just a base salary.

[JPJP]

I believe the legacy carrier benchmark in the US is currently at US$ 450,000+ extras. (~AUD675K) Australia is a higher cost country. The US airline pilot unions are militant and their members enjoy the benefits of that. Contrast that to the local dynamics and you get the local crap pay.

As to what is fair: Whatever the market will bear given the industrial laws and the backbone of the union membership.

I get something close to $360/hr. That’s after at least three years of pay freezes in my career and increases below inflation. Absent those things my rate of pay would be over $400/hr.

I think $450k is a reasonable number. But I wonder why I should accept less than our colleagues overseas when our fares are at least as high and the CEO is the highest paid airline exec in the world? For running down an airline that was ranked 18in the world by fleet size to 38th in ten years.

As far as the LCCs go…who else takes lower pay for the same work to offset the employer's revenue model? The difference between my pay and a JQ captain's pay is what? 50c per seat per hour?

And by the way…I think a Dash 8 skipper should get at least $200K based on seats and speed.

Consider the source. That $450K number came from Robert Isom’s (CEO of American Airlines) letter to the media. He was negotiating in public. He was also including everything but the kitchen sink, not just the pay for flying.

Notional 12 Year Delta Captain (320/737NG). 1106 pay hours is a realistic average amount. Some less, some more.

- 1106 credit hours per annum @ $335.00 = $370,579.00 ($554,000 Australian dollars)
- company retirement contribution @ 16% = $59,292.00
- profit sharing @ 10% = $37,579.00
- retirement contribution on profit sharing = $9486.00
- per diem = ~ $6000.00

Total = $482,357 ($721,120.00 Australian dollars)

The retirement contribution you’ll never see nor spend until you retire. The per diem is for food in a hotel, and the profit sharing isn’t guaranteed.

[cxflog]

Consider the source. That $450K number came from Robert Isom’s (CEO of American Airlines) letter to the media. He was negotiating in public. He was also including everything but the kitchen sink, not just the pay for flying.

Notional 12 Year Delta Captain (320/737NG). 1106 pay hours is a realistic average amount. Some less, some more.

- 1106 credit hours per annum @ $335.00 = $370,579.00 ($554,000 Australian dollars)
- company retirement contribution @ 16% = $59,292.00
- profit sharing @ 10% = $37,579.00
- retirement contribution on profit sharing = $9486.00
- per diem = ~ $6000.00

Total = $482,357 ($721,120.00 Australian dollars)

The retirement contribution you’ll never see nor spend until you retire. The per diem is for food in a hotel, and the profit sharing isn’t guaranteed.
Also lower tax rates and lower cost of living (unless you live in NY/Cali) which makes that amount of money go much further.

18 hour long call reserve? Sign me up.

[Bull_Shark]

How is it that these overseas airlines can give massive pay rises, enormous bonuses or generous salaries and sign on incentives, yet airlines in Australia (and Rex is definitely one of them) shriek like the whole operation will cease to exist unless an EBA is rolled over with nothing more than a 2 or 3 percent pay rise?

[Twomonthsoff]

How is it that these overseas airlines can give massive pay rises, enormous bonuses or generous salaries and sign on incentives, yet airlines in Australia (and Rex is definitely one of them) shriek like the whole operation will cease to exist unless an EBA is rolled over with nothing more than a 2 or 3 percent pay rise?


I will seldom stick up for management in any airline I’ve operated for, however, you might find that those airlines dishing out big bonus’s are those with the least tax liabilities, I do stand to be corrected; I love to be wrong

[Ladloy]

How is it that these overseas airlines can give massive pay rises, enormous bonuses or generous salaries and sign on incentives, yet airlines in Australia (and Rex is definitely one of them) shriek like the whole operation will cease to exist unless an EBA is rolled over with nothing more than a 2 or 3 percent pay rise?
The Rex chairman has been quoted saying "I'd rather cut my arm off then pay pilots more".

[KRUSTY 34]

The Rex chairman has been quoted saying "I'd rather cut my arm off then pay pilots more".

That was at a time when all the domestic airlines were in major expansion. As a result, REX lost 60% of their pilots in 2007/08. REX were cancelling flights left right and center but were able to whether the storm due to its (at the time) commendable low debt/equity ratio. Although the thousands of stranded passengers may not have seen that as a positive.

It was however getting to the point where rational pragmatism (survival) may have started to have an influence. Then came along the GFC which ultimately saved the day!

[Ladloy]

That was at a time when all the domestic airlines were in major expansion. As a result, REX lost 60% of their pilots in 2007/08. REX were cancelling flights left right and center but were able to whether the storm due to their (at the time) commendable low debt/equity ratio. Although the thousands of stranded passengers may not have seen that as a positive.

It was however getting to the point where rational pragmatism (survival) may have started to have an influence. Then came along the GFC which ultimately saved the day!
history is repeating itself currently.

[Going Nowhere]

Meanwhile…

https://rex.com.au/BlobViewer/BlobViewer.aspx?attachtype=MR&filename=716151754969663256573858585875416B754D4577696A56495 9637053486275513932374F47336F6750464849696E30676436415377795 22F734356394B4535572F6E39456E3156784C4A496A4F4D4D7777596A412 B4556365843716B5A70494769332B6167764B3637453D

[Maisk Rotum]

"Ice Pilots, Our Heart is in the Country" Sounds like a good tv series.

[Bignose101]

Let's hope it doesn't result in a smoking hole in the ground.

[dejapoo]

"Ice Pilots, Our Heart is in the Country" Sounds like a good tv series.

Aren't the ice pilots in Bali? Confused.

[Tom/PER]

Are there any updates as to when/if the 2 x ex SQ B738’s that we’re due in June/July are still arriving?

[Wizofoz]

Are there any updates as to when/if the 2 x ex SQ B738’s that we’re due in June/July are still arriving?

1st one is going through acceptance flights this week.

[markis10]

aSX release today said mid July and September, they took longer to finalise the leases than initially outlined, read into that what you want….

[assasin]

Krusty 34,
Surely Rex can’t be having a pilot shortage! When AAPA was started, it was sold to all as a savour to Rex ever having a pilot shortage, “ever again”. Refer to press releases of the time.
Yet at a guess this would be the second or third shortage since 2006/7. Something is broken, shareholders should be asking the question as to why.

[Slippery_Pete]

$35m loss. Ouch.

[KRUSTY 34]

Krusty 34,
Surely Rex can’t be having a pilot shortage! When AAPA was started, it was sold to all as a savour to Rex ever having a pilot shortage, “ever again”. Refer to press releases of the time.
Yet at a guess this would be the second or third shortage since 2006/7. Something is broken, shareholders should be asking the question as to why.

Yeah! Funny that?

[Slippery_Pete]

Yeah! Funny that?

Probably not enough are prepared to make a “solemn promise” and do weeding on their days off.

[VH-RME]

Can anyone shed any light on what their staff travel looks like? TIA

[Ladloy]

Can anyone shed any light on what their staff travel looks like? TIA
Do you like emailing forms that were designed for fax?
When I was there it was ID90 off the highest fare, so sometimes travelling regionally it was cheaper to buy a full fare ticket

[MickG0105]

Loads are terrible mid week on the 737 apparently. Great for the cash burn. Terrible is 20-50 ish. Perhaps they need a decent frequent flyer program. Triangle 5pm you shouldn’t have a spare seat available during the week. Flights are at 80 percent LF.Your intel is BS. Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting. Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE. Seven Eight months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE. Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.

Having looked at two week's worth of data now, Rex might just be in a spot of bother; it appears that not enough punters are flying with them. ​​​​​​

For the week 25-31 July, Rex's domestic jet operations moved something in the order of 29,250 passengers on the 255-odd flights that they operated over that period. Their numbers on the Brisbane - Sydney - Melbourne triangle were alarmingly ordinary; a shade over 20,000 over some 180-odd flights.

Coming into August, despite seeing an extra jet being brought into the fleet (an increase of about 14 percent), Rex cut their schedule by some 14 flights (around 5.5 percent). They do have plans to add 14 flights a week back into the schedule when MEL-HBA starts next week but it seemed to be an odd decision to just mark time on their flight schedule despite the additional fleet capacity. Perhaps one of the existing jets has a major service due this month.

Any old how, if the last week of July wasn't ordinary enough (and July is routinely a very good month for domestic), the first week of August has been worse. For the week 1-7 August Rex's jet ops saw some 26,900 pax (down 8 percent) over just shy of 240 flights. The overwhelming majority of that loss in pax numbers occurred in the triangle where numbers fell from 20,000 to 17,200.

And yes, only 14 days worth of data, and just one week-to-week comparison; apply all the usual caveats that apply to small data sets.

And yes, we don't know what Rex's yield was but we do know two things; passenger numbers are an important input to yield (and to load factor), and probably more saliently, Rex haven't been saying boo about the profitability of their domestic jet ops for quite some time now. I don't think that it is a huge logical leap to conclude that Rex might be struggling to make a quid off the back of these passenger numbers.

Here it is probably worth noting that, by their own reporting, Rex's domestic operations initially swung into profit in September last year. Their domestic network load factors for September 2022 were in the low-80s.

And yes, we know that back in the day Rex previously routinely made a small profit off of the back of sixty-x percent load factors. Comparing an operation using a wholly owned fleet of turboprops flying between regional airports, with one using a leased fleet of jets flying between major airports is riddled with obvious issues. And, see the point about the lack of "We're in the money!" announcements.

​​​​​​​Rex's full year results will be out in a couple of weeks. Their H2 revenue will be a number to look at.

[Deano969]

Mick they may have cut 14 flights but added 14 SYD-ADL
So Triangle lost 14 explaining the drop there
You may also find REXs fares are up and are closer to VA than JQ now, further explaining the lower seat numbers but a slightly higher yield per seat
L/F still around 60-70% which is much higher than many on here predicted predicted
More birds on the way
FFPs not far off
More mainline destinations coming and extra through traffic
And solid sustained loads

Mick I think you are just nit picking

[SHVC]

How is their core business going, you know the SAABs? Something like 17 odd parked up doesn’t scream things are going great. Rex as a whole could be in a spot of bother.

[PoppaJo]

They did mention a corporate drop off in the last results, and a strange comment about higher international fares, which then flowed over to its own network resulting in less spend, and hence, less bums on seats. That would explain the quietness on the triangle, but I wasn’t aware that Rex was carrying large amounts of corporate traffic on these routes.

Rex, like Tiger, and probably Bonza, are certainly more vulnerable in any downturn. Even more so if one has no corporate revenue streams, loyalty programs. Generally the first to fall apart when fuel jumps.

[MickG0105]

How is their core business going, you know the SAABs? ...
The core business that back in February they said had been "a drag on the Group's performance"?

I haven't been tracking their regional flights so can't offer a view. Back in February at the half-year results announcement they did say that they expected regional to "return to monthly profitability in Q3FY23."

I would add (and just have) that if regional had returned to profitability in Q3FY23, given Rex's track record on market announcements, I suspect that we would have heard something to that effect in May.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

And solid sustained loads
​​​​​​​Have you looked up "sustained" in the dictionary?

[Ladloy]

Solid sustained losses

[Bull_Shark]

they expected regional to "return to monthly profitability in Q3FY23."

REX getting another blasting in the media today concerning delayed and cancelled regional flights. People in the country are fed up and it seems the Saab operation is on life support and probably now terminal.

[MickG0105]

REX getting another blasting in the media today concerning delayed and cancelled regional flights. People in the country are fed up and it seems the Saab operation is on life support and probably now terminal.
Makes you wonder what happened to that joint project with ATR that Rex announced back in June 2020. According to the MOU they were meant to be studying "optimised solutions" for the replacement and modernisation of the Saab fleet by a fleet of "state-of-the-art ATR 42 and ATR 72 aircraft".

As for anyone claiming that Rex have managed "sustained loads", that is just sheer nonsense. It is looking very much as though Rex have somewhat spectacularly failed to sustain the sort of loads that got their domestic jet operation into the black in September, and through to December, last year.

It is worth noting that according to Rex, the first time that their domestic jet operation reached "slight profitability" was September last year. Coincidentally or not, September was the first time that they cleared the 80 percent load factor hurdle for the month; 134,350-odd pax carried on just shy of 910 flights. For October 2022 Rex announced an unaudited Profit Before Tax for jet ops of "about $2m". Again, coincidentally or not, their load factor for October was solidly mid-80s; around 139,000 pax on some 925 flights.

Monthly profitability announcements (the "We're in the money" series) continued for another two months ... and then they stopped. I don't think some newly found sense of modesty drove that change. A couple of weeks before EOFY we got what is likely to be the first in the "We're in the ****ter" series of announcements.

On an admittedly thin set of data, Rex's numbers are now sitting squarely in the 60s. Coincidentally or not, no profitability announcements.

And you can't band-aid that sort of decline in load factor with yield. RASK is simply LF by Yield, so just to maintain the same RASK with that 20 percentage point drop in LF, you need a 30 percent uplift in Yield. That would be a stretch with a largely inelastic product, it is essentially impossible with air travel in a competitive market.

Rex has gone from moving some 31,000 pax a week on 210 flights, to roughly 28,000 pax on 246 weekly flights. By any objective assessment, it appears that something fairly significant has happened to their customer base. It may have something to do with their pricing - they are now being undercut by Jetstar and matched (or bettered) by Virgin - or it may not.

One way or another, something is amiss for those guys. I really can't see how you can dress that up.

[PoppaJo]

Don’t forget they picked up some significant traffic last year on the 737s while all the others operationally were a disaster, they gained some good PR and picked up many new customers. Essentially they had become the go to airline.

Now the others, while still very average in some areas performance wise, are not as bad as once was.

The customers all returned to the others. Perhaps that’s the issue. The emotion around never flying Virgin, Jetstar or Qantas is short lived. The experience is a bit more polished over the fence, and they chuck some points and status credits at you, Australians love points and flashy loyalty cards. Rex needs a management and board renewal, to be able to effectively complete with the duopoly, and take it into the next Rex era.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

I flew BNE-MEL-BNE recently. I was choosing on price basis. With Rex, not much choice, and because of that, I could choose a (much) cheaper flight with any of the other 3 at a less popular time.

[MickG0105]

I flew BNE-MEL-BNE recently. I was choosing on price basis. With Rex, not much choice, and because of that, I could choose a (much) cheaper flight with any of the other 3 at a less popular time.
Interestingly, BNE-MEL is one of their better performing city pairs; consistently mid-70s - mid-80s LF. But they only operate two return flights a day.

[Deano969]

Moving from a fare of say $80 to $110 sees an extra $30 per seat, however, this is not the full story
Deducting a whole bunch of fees and costs sees the actual net per seat go up significantly more

For example
$80 fare may just be break even, a small loss at 80% L/F
$110 fare at 80% L/F could be around $4000 higher
Even at 60% L/F their net would still be better off than $80 at 80% L/F

[MickG0105]

Losing customers to competitors who are undercutting you on price? Worried about your revenue line?

Try our "Jack Up Your Prices" strategy!

Use code URNIDIOT for 10 percent cash back on insolvency advice.

[Deano969]

REX would have revenue of an extra $400 on 60% @ $110 verses 80% @ $80
They would also save plenty on screening, airport passenger charges, meals, fuel

Plenty on here bagging them when they were getting good loads with cheap fares saying that it's not about bums on seats, it's about revenue
REX has been doing regional for decades with low L/Fs

BTW a quick look at QF shows a mixed bag on the triangle of reasonable loads, then full loads preceded by empty flights, obviously cancelling flights, then filling up the next one or 2
VA on the other hand just have mediocre loads outside the peak

Has the bubble burst on pent up demand ?

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

REX would have revenue of an extra $400 on 60% @ $110 verses 80% @ $80
They would also save plenty on screening, airport passenger charges, meals, fuel

Wow, what a strategy!! Think how much they'd make if they didn't carry anyone!

REX has been doing regional for decades with low L/Fs

In QLD at least those routes have been subsidised by the Govt. They get paid even if there's no one on it............Wait, maybe that's the plan for the jets??

[MickG0105]

REX would have revenue of an extra $400 on 60% @ $110 verses 80% @ $80They would also save plenty on screening, airport passenger charges, meals, fuelWow, what a strategy!! Think how much they'd make if they didn't carry anyone!

REX has been doing regional for decades with low L/Fs
In QLD at least those routes have been subsidised by the Govt. They get paid even if there's no one on it............Wait, maybe that's the plan for the jets??
Unless you are engaged in a trial that is actively testing the efficacy of blood pressure medication, arguing with idiots is entirely pointless.

People can speculate about the hypothetical possibilities of a theoretical pricing structure for as long as they want. Back in the real world, Rex are losing money. All we need to know is that Rex were reporting profitability for domestic jet ops when load factors were in the mid- to high-80s, and when they fell below that, no more profitability proclamations. Draw your own conclusions.

​​​​​​

[SHVC]

Given the weekly ASX updates have stopped, speaks for itself.

[assasin]

Rex latest job advertisement for Saab captain recruitment $30k sign on bonus, Cairns, Townsville, Perth positions. Advertised on seek. Things must be getting desperate!

[43Inches]

Rex latest job advertisement for Saab captain recruitment $30k sign on bonus, Cairns, Townsville, Perth positions. Advertised on seek. Things must be getting desperate!

Maybe if they had added $30k to the base salary at the last EBA there might have been less leave! If there's no one to attract I'm not sure what offering a one off payment is going to do to poach back pilots from other operators who are paid more anyway. Now each day that goes by the figure to retain pilots is increasing, probably up past $50k added to the base, can't afford it ? Well, its that or no one to fly the planes....

[Ladloy]

Maybe if they had added $30k to the base salary at the last EBA there might have been less leave! If there's no one to attract I'm not sure what offering a one off payment is going to do to poach back pilots from other operators who are paid more anyway. Now each day that goes by the figure to retain pilots is increasing, probably up past $50k added to the base, can't afford it ? Well, its that or no one to fly the planes....
It's a beautiful thing to watch this company suffer for all it has done for suppressing wages.

[43Inches]

It's a beautiful thing to watch this company suffer for all it has done for suppressing wages.

From what I've heard they haven't made a single offer to retain existing crew, who are leaving at a much higher rate than they could ever replace. Just crazy if you think that the share holders will probably ask the question "what did the board do to try to retain staff?" if the company does hit the wall. With the only answer, "oh we worked them harder to fill the gaps left, what do you mean retain anyway?".

[Ladloy]

From what I've heard they haven't made a single offer to retain existing crew, who are leaving at a much higher rate than they could ever replace. Just crazy if you think that the share holders will probably ask the question "what did the board do to try to retain staff?" if the company does hit the wall. With the only answer, "oh we worked them harder to fill the gaps left, what do you mean retain anyway?".
The 30k is also applicable to Captains in Perth, Cairns and Townsville if they stay for another 2 years.


Retaining staff has never been their business model. They told me that many many years ago when I interviewed.

[43Inches]

Well in that case they are meeting their KPI for that at least...

[markis10]

REX would have revenue of an extra $400 on 60% @ $110 verses 80% @ $80
They would also save plenty on screening, airport passenger charges, meals, fuel

Plenty on here bagging them when they were getting good loads with cheap fares saying that it's not about bums on seats, it's about revenue
REX has been doing regional for decades with low L/Fs

BTW a quick look at QF shows a mixed bag on the triangle of reasonable loads, then full loads preceded by empty flights, obviously cancelling flights, then filling up the next one or 2
VA on the other hand just have mediocre loads outside the peak

Has the bubble burst on pent up demand ?

Not much revenue at the moment with $70 fares Syd-Mel midweek https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/793507

[dejapoo]

Such a beautiful thing to watch. When they hire direct entries, upon arrival at crAPPA they tell you "they hate direct entries and get ready to fail" ya reap what you sow.

Our hearts in the cuntry, our profits (or is it loss) in Saunapore.

[PoppaJo]

They should be using the fleet of 73s to actively promote from within off the turboprop, give people some reason to hang around, it’s great for culture and loyalty. Many American entry level jobs will give you a large jet rough start date from joining. I wonder what the panel would say if you asked them how long until you can offer me a 737 spot at a Saab interview? God help the poor soul.

10 years on a Saab, plus an organ, might get you a look in.

[dejapoo]

They should be using the fleet of 73s to actively promote from within off the turboprop, give people some reason to hang around, it’s great for culture and loyalty. Many American entry level jobs will give you a large jet rough start date from joining. I wonder what the panel would say if you asked them how long until you can offer me a 737 spot at a Saab interview? God help the poor soul.

10 years on a Saab, plus an organ, might get you a look in.

Wouldn't cost them a thing ! A bit of succession planning, now there's a thought ! No doubt if the whole thing goes down the tube beetroot head will blame those pesky pilots (of which he used to be one I'm pretty certain).

[Ladloy]

They should be using the fleet of 73s to actively promote from within off the turboprop, give people some reason to hang around, it’s great for culture and loyalty. Many American entry level jobs will give you a large jet rough start date from joining. I wonder what the panel would say if you asked them how long until you can offer me a 737 spot at a Saab interview? God help the poor soul.

10 years on a Saab, plus an organ, might get you a look in.
They had expressions of interest, only 10% applied internally and the majority were turned down to save the numbers on the saab fleet. They are actively allowing movement even to NJE now bit too little too late. Apparently the best way to get a 73 spot is put a resignation in. The fleet manager calls you within a few hours.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Wow, just like a Foxtel subscription. They completely ignore you and treat you like dirt, but ring and ask to cancel, you are their best friend.

[Mach E Avelli]

Promotion from within is one good pilot retention strategy that can offset a lower pay scale...at least in the short term. Anyone competent on a Saab won't have a problem with a B737, and by now the Training Departmnent surely know who is competent, and who is not?
Longer term pilot retention will depend very much on which way the market heads over the next few years. It would only take a major recession in the USA to see a sudden rise in 'loyalty' (for want of a better word) at home. OTOH, if the USA continues to go gangbusters, our airlines will be busy importing and training third country nationals who see Australia as one step up the aviation food-chain from where they are now. That will cost Rex heaps more than any internal promotion policy.

[43Inches]

Promotion from within is one good pilot retention strategy that can offset a lower pay scale...at least in the short term. Anyone competent on a Saab won't have a problem with a B737, and by now the Training Departmnent surely know who is competent, and who is not?
Longer term pilot retention will depend very much on which way the market heads over the next few years. It would only take a major recession in the USA to see a sudden rise in 'loyalty' (for want of a better word) at home. OTOH, if the USA continues to go gangbusters, our airlines will be busy importing and training third country nationals who see Australia as one step up the aviation food-chain from where they are now. That will cost Rex heaps more than any internal promotion policy.

No one is going to hang around for an opportunity that they can get straight away somewhere else, progression is a carrot when there is little movement. I'm pretty sure alot leaving would be under the understanding that they would progress to the jet at some point, given that they have offered it to some. People are leaving due to better pay and better treatment, there's no confusing that. The simple fact is right now Rex needs to stump up a better long term offer, everyone will see through an 'extra' bonus that's not added to the base. They need to up the base salary to prove they are interested in having pilots for some tenure, that's the new world airlines are living in. Make the job pay well and offer stable lifestyle and you will have pilots.

The funny thing is that every time Rex seems to be getting somewhere, they nobble themselves with this stupid idea of letting staff flow control their business. The company could have been making twice the profits they have, had they kept a reliable workforce number that provided reliable services. BUT, every time they start getting on a roll, their archaic remuneration policy bites them on the arse and they lose their main competitive edge, reliability and frequency. Without that the passengers flock back to the other operators and Rex has to build up it's image again...and again... So they start self fulfilling their own demise because the bread and butter routes in SE Aus start wanting QF or someone else to come and offer them better service, while the accountants at the top focus on some mildly profitable regulated route in BF nowhere!

[KRUSTY 34]

The 30k is also applicable to Captains in Perth, Cairns and Townsville if they stay for another 2 years.


Retaining staff has never been their business model. They told me that many many years ago when I interviewed.

Exactly. There are strings attached to that offer. the title bond says it all. Somewhat narrow in the band of potential candidates I would imagine as well?

Speaking of the EBA, is it true that one of the conditions were that if a pilot is demoted, they now revert to their lower salary after 8 weeks rather than from Check to line!?

[dejapoo]

Relevant question. Never seen so many demoted people. Ever.

[KRUSTY 34]

Relevant question. Never seen so many demoted people. Ever.

Uh Oh!

[dr dre]

The 30k is also applicable to Captains in Perth, Cairns and Townsville if they stay for another 2 years.


Closer to $15k after tax. The bonus wouldn’t match the salary shortfall of staying at Rex for two years vs leaving to a higher paying jet job. I wonder if airline managers sometimes think pilots a) have no idea what other airlines pay and b) can’t do basic math.

[Wizofoz]

Relevant question. Never seen so many demoted people. Ever.

Sorry, what? Demoted from what to what?

You clearly have an axe to grind- how about being honest about what your experience was.

[CorporalElectric]

So, from Casa records which match the Rex website, there are 61 Saab 340s operated by Rex/Pelair. Of them, 19 havent flown in over a month, with another couple that havent flown in the last two or three weeks. Two or three of them might well be in heavy maintenance, but that still leaves a solid third, or just under, of the Saab fleet parked up for months on end - at least a quarter of the fleet parked at Wagga, Adelaide and so on. That must be costing a fortune. According to Flightaware some of that parked fleet last flew in 2022.

[swingswong]

Apparently the best way to get a 73 spot is put a resignation in. The fleet manager calls you within a few hours.

This is a well known story amongst current crew. If you screw people it has a knock on effect, not just to the people it directly effects but also to people who hear about these things happening to their respected peers. These stories influence individual decisions about career futures.

There are lots of other jobs available at the moment and whoever offers the best deal will get the people.

You can treat your people well, or not.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

a solid third, or just under, of the Saab fleet parked up for months on end
I think those are the ones waiting for the electric engines. That will be the gig to bid for. Fly one max range sector, plug the charge cable in, and ride your pushbike back home.

[Wizofoz]

I think those are the ones waiting for the electric engines. That will be the gig to bid for. Fly one max range sector, plug the charge cable in, and ride your pushbike back home.
#winsinternet

[markis10]

That must be costing a fortune. According to Flightaware some of that parked fleet last flew in 2022.

Doesnt cost much when your not paying leases, and airport parking for planes is much cheaper than cars!

[ACMS]

The SAAB 340 uses the same Engine as the Blackhawk Helicopter, the production line is stretched to the max for the Blackhawk and Rex is having trouble sourcing spares and even servicing their Engines……

[anito4a]

How on earth did this happen?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-15/rex-handed-six-year-contract-for-regional-wa-routes/102733156

[BEVLY9]

How on earth did this happen?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-15/rex-handed-six-year-contract-for-regional-wa-routes/102733156

“•The regional provider was the only airline to tender for contracts for a number of the routes across regional WA”

[KRUSTY 34]

Doesnt cost much when your not paying leases, and airport parking for planes is much cheaper than cars!

True.

Sad, but true.

[KRUSTY 34]

The SAAB 340 uses the same Engine as the Blackhawk Helicopter, the production line is stretched to the max for the Blackhawk and Rex is having trouble sourcing spares and even servicing their Engines……

Should have stayed with the GE Engine Care Maintenace Program (ECMP) perhaps?

[MickG0105]

Rex will be looking to do some serious key jangling ahead of the disclosure of their FY23 financials.

They have put out three media releases in the last seven days (Chinese trainees, partnering with Enterprise for the Antarctic tender, and the WA regulated routes tender). Those releases have either been ignored or picked up by only a handful of outlets (apparently Rex were quite affronted by the notion that one outlet wanted to discuss Rex's pilot shortage problem instead of just running a fluff piece on the return of Chinese cadets to their academy). In any event, none of the media releases have moved their share price from their current quite parlous levels.

Given what are going to be some pretty ordinary results (their passenger revenue and retained earnings lines will make for interesting reading, as will the inclusion (or otherwise) of an imputed facility fee amortisation line), share price is critical for them. Because their deal with PAG has a $1.50 strike price for the convertible notes, any time that Rex want to draw further funds from PAG when the share price is under $1.50 means that Rex are on the hook for the difference between the share price and the strike price.

Through late June and July, Rex made a series of announcements - new routes, Skytrax award, new jets, new base for NJE, Antarctic tender, new jets again - doubtless hoping to give the old share price a kick along. Then, at the end of July, they very quietly drew down a further $5 million from the PAG kitty. The average share price in the two weeks ahead of the draw down was around $1.13 (it had been as low as $1.05 only a week or so prior).

There has been a hint of glimpse of the makings of the suggestion of the possibility of an upturn in the domestic jet numbers over the last seven days. I would not be in the least surprised if that is woven into a pronouncement about a forecast impending return to profitability for domestic in September. As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

[Saintly]

I see Rex (through NJE) are using Dash 8-400 aircraft to fly to CVQ starting from November.

[smiling monkey]

I see Rex (through NJE) are using Dash 8-400 aircraft to fly to CVQ starting from November.

Where do you see that being mentioned? Any mention of the E190 being used for RPT?

[regional_flyer]

Where do you see that being mentioned?

It shows on the Rex booking engine. Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays have the Q400 scheduled.

[Saintly]

Where do you see that being mentioned? Any mention of the E190 being used for RPT?

Not sure. Maybe the Dash 8-400 will be used on the ALH and EPR routes.

[MickG0105]

It shows on the Rex booking engine. Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays have the Q400 scheduled.
It looks like Rex are swapping out their usual morning Saab run (ZL2416/2417) for a Q400 run (ZL2532/2533) on those days.

As an aside, booking two months in advance, there are some absolutely eye-watering fares that the punters are being slugged with. Between $408 - $612 one way.

[Stationair8]

When does the YMML - YMHB start?

[anito4a]

It looks like Rex are swapping out their usual morning Saab run (ZL2416/2417) for a Q400 run (ZL2532/2533) on those days.

As an aside, booking two months in advance, there are some absolutely eye-watering fares that the punters are being slugged with. Between $408 - $612 one way.

Aren't these meant to be WA government subsidised flights and therefore be at an affordable ticket price?

[PoppaJo]

Aren't these meant to be WA government subsidised flights and therefore be at an affordable ticket price?

The reason why Perth to Bali is such a big market is flying Perth to anywhere else are some of the highest airfares in the world. Perth to Broome is about $1k return for the coming months. Bonza, where are you?

[regional_flyer]

When does the YMML - YMHB start?

Started yesterday (Aug 17th).

[ResumeOwnNav]

When are the ATRs turning up?

[PoppaJo]

When are the ATRs turning up?
Probably after the creditors meeting.

[SHVC]

Their share price is taking a flogging now. Maybe sharpie needs to release daily ASX updates again.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Aren't these meant to be WA government subsidised flights
They probably are. Getting the Government to foot the bill for a percentage of a $1k airfare is a lot smarter than asking for the same percentage of a $500 airfare.

[MickG0105]

Aren't these meant to be WA government subsidised flights and therefore be at an affordable ticket price?
The WA Regional Airfare Zone Cap scheme (https://www.transport.wa.gov.au/aviation/regional-airfare-zone-cap.asp) is, as it suggests on the tin, only available to WA regional residents for personal travel on eligible routes to and from Perth. If you are a Perth resident travelling to Carnarvon, you are looking at return fares in the $750 - $1,125 range. If you are a Carnarvon resident travelling to Perth, your return fare is capped at $398.

[43Inches]

The WA Regional Airfare Zone Cap scheme (https://www.transport.wa.gov.au/aviation/regional-airfare-zone-cap.asp) is, as it suggests on the tin, only available to WA regional residents for personal travel on eligible routes to and from Perth. If you are a Perth resident travelling to Carnarvon, you are looking at return fares in the $750 - $1,125 range. If you are a Carnarvon resident travelling to Perth, your return fare is capped at $398.

Considering there's only about 3000 residents in that area who would be in the bracket capable of possibly paying for such fares (19-75 years old), there's not going to be a lot of subsidized fares. From a marketing point of view you could probably drop that number down to less than 1000 for actual possible customers (using census data), yes there is catchment from surrounding areas, but not a lot. I'd say the majority of paying passengers would be tourists/workers flying in and out of the area. Albany and Esperance have much better population support as well as tourism. Very interesting that no one else tendered for those two, says a lot about what capacity other operators have and what they want to focus on.

[MickG0105]

The Western Australian government's Regional Airfare Zone Cap scheme covers any resident living outside the Perth/Peel region, about 550,000 people. Zone 1 ($398 capped return airfare to Perth) covers Albany, Carnarvon, Esperance, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, Laverton, Leonora, Meekatharra, Monkey Mia (Denham), Mount Magnet, and Wiluna; Zone 2 ($598 capped return airfare) covers Broome, Exmouth (Learmonth), Karratha, Kununurra, Newman, Paraburdoo, and Port Hedland.

By the WA government's accounting (https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook-Labor-Government/Capped-airfares-prove-popular-in-first-year-of-landmark-scheme-20230815) "... more than 42,500 capped airfares were used by regional residents between April and June 2023. This is a five per cent increase on the third quarter results and brings the total amount of fares used during the first year of the scheme to 151,181."

The 2023-24 budget papers (https://www.ourstatebudget.wa.gov.au/2023-24/budget-papers/bp2/2023-24-wa-state-budget-bp2-data-transport.xlsx) show that $17.143 million was spent on the scheme in 2022-23 (over $4 million more than was originally budgeted), and some $22.248 million has been budgeted for the current FY.

[43Inches]

The Western Australian government's Regional Airfare Zone Cap scheme covers any resident living outside the Perth/Peel region, about 550,000 people. Zone 1 ($398 capped return airfare to Perth) covers Albany, Carnarvon, Esperance, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, Laverton, Leonora, Meekatharra, Monkey Mia (Denham), Mount Magnet, and Wiluna; Zone 2 ($598 capped return airfare) covers Broome, Exmouth (Learmonth), Karratha, Kununurra, Newman, Paraburdoo, and Port Hedland.

By the WA government's accounting (https://www.wa.gov.au/government/media-statements/Cook-Labor-Government/Capped-airfares-prove-popular-in-first-year-of-landmark-scheme-20230815) "... more than 42,500 capped airfares were used by regional residents between April and June 2023. This is a five per cent increase on the third quarter results and brings the total amount of fares used during the first year of the scheme to 151,181."

The 2023-24 budget papers (https://www.ourstatebudget.wa.gov.au/2023-24/budget-papers/bp2/2023-24-wa-state-budget-bp2-data-transport.xlsx) show that $17.143 million was spent on the scheme in 2022-23 (over $4 million more than was originally budgeted), and some $22.248 million has been budgeted for the current FY.

Granted that's the entire system covering a lot of towns supported by airlines with much larger capacities. The catchment on Albany and Esperance would be quite large for locals, but Carnarvon/Monkey Mia is very small in comparison, so I doubt Rex would be making large amounts on that route from the subsidies, probably a nice route to tick over revenue for tourist seasons, but barely profitable if at all on off season. I have no idea what sort of loads they get on those, all post my time there. I know Albany and Esperance have always been decent loads for any airline that goes there, even with 50 seaters, which really does make me wonder why no others put in a bid... Maybe there's a strategic bid by players to make Rex look bad so they don't get a look in ever again, ie make their money hungry management wreck the rest of their network trying to crew Perth while neglecting the East coast sinking them further into the abyss.

Somebody once told me that airlines can either run RPT or Charter, but never be good at more than one. Rex used to be very good at RPT, but have chased so many tenders they may have forgotten what price/reliability sensitive passengers want from RPT and have shifted to be almost a charter operator. If the heart of Rex in the South East Aus collapses they will not have the revenue to do anything else, and no pilots will want to live in the areas they have tenders on the money they pay. Focus is everything and it looks like QF group have focused on Rexs heartland, and Rex have just let them take it... It will be almost impossible to get those passengers back once QF gets properly established.

[Deano969]

What QF took from ZL is more than offset by ZL now running to PQQ and CFS along with DPO
IMO REX sees itself more like an emerging QF or VA
Keeping solid regional only and moving away from underperforming places like Lizmore, Grafton, Taree, Cooma etc all the while building their jet network
Regionals will still play a part, but their move is away from servicing low volume places better served by the likes of Pelican, shame Pelican has ties with VA or REX could have worked with them so they both could have benefited off each other

[43Inches]

What QF took from ZL is more than offset by ZL now running to PQQ and CFS along with DPO
IMO REX sees itself more like an emerging QF or VA
Keeping solid regional only and moving away from underperforming places like Lizmore, Grafton, Taree, Cooma etc all the while building their jet network
Regionals will still play a part, but their move is away from servicing low volume places better served by the likes of Pelican, shame Pelican has ties with VA or REX could have worked with them so they both could have benefited off each other

Hmm, I can see QLink have moved back into South Australia in several Rex ports, and are operating ABX-MEL, WGA-MEL, BWT-MEL, GFF-SYD, OAG-SYD, MIM-SYD, MQL-SYD, plus BDG-SYD, which would have been an ideal Rex route. Then theres all the increased capacity on other competitive routes. Not sure how PQQ, CFS and DPO have offset the losses, considering MIM, BWT, GFF were Rex goldmines at one point and now running at 1/3rd what they were with triangulations when the competition flies direct... sad really. I think they have really dropped the ball and QF have seen that they are willing to compromise these routes to prop up tendered routes in other states, which without the mass revenue from the other routes will become loss making rather than cash cows as the cost of operating these routes exceeds the tender amount.

Then there's the crew issue...

The main thing that killed the regionals in the US was locking into fixed price deals with the majors, and had no out clauses for when costs spiraled. If they had independence in price setting they could adjust, but thinking fixed price tenders and charters are long term options can get you into deep water fast.

[PoppaJo]

IMO REX sees itself more like an emerging QF or VA
Can you elaborate on what you actually mean by that?

[43Inches]

Rex does not want to be any of those, QF is a massive corporation that is almost impossible to build up to in todays environment. It's just lucky QF has not had any serious competition since it 'shared' the market with Ansett, which is why many outside airlines have tried to white ant QF with supporting failing airlines such as VA just to drain some revenue from the Roo to stop them competing in Asia. QFs main competitor is itself, in that no one else can really bother them, just their own management tend to get in it's way. Onto VA, you have a basket case within a basket case, it's struggled to know where it fits in the market, it's been propped up by multiple internationals to drain cash from the Australian domestic market so QF doesn't run away with it, and now its in the hands of Bain, with an unknown future. I have to say VAs planes are looking very tired at the moment, some really need a paint, and some other thing showing real signs of restricted cash flow. Are they profitable, who knows, its all behind closed doors, and more importantly are they profitable because they are feeding off whats left or profitable with the means to maintain and build capital to keep operations ahead of the game.

[Deano969]

Can you elaborate on what you actually mean by that?
Meaning REX don't see a future in being a stand alone regional that serves every tin pot airport that no one else bothers to serve
Prior to VA going busto, they were somewhat happy being the above and they had a reasonable association with VA happily pushing passengers to each other
When VA failed there were 2 factors leading to their foray into their jet age
1) They could be the next VA similar to when AN sent busto
2) REX had no other player left to interline to and from for their passengers transiting beyond state capitals

So point 1 a bit of opportunistic greed and point 2 a matter of survival against QF / Link that could do eg. Dubbo to Melbourne on the one ticket

Now the see themselves as a smaller version of QF / VA
Their plan I believe is
Grow jet operations to around 30 over the next few years
Offer hourly on the triangle
Cover all state capitals
Jets into regional ports such as CNS, TSV, MKY, ROK, BDB, MCY, OOL, BNK, CFS, CBR, HBA, LST
Keep larger regional operations and drop (as they have) marginal ones
Keep their customers on the one ticket from regional to other state destinations
Replace SAABs with ATRs or now more likely Q400s as they now have a few on fleet through NJE and it looks like they will start them out west

A smaller version of QF or a version of VA but with their on regional network as a feed allowing for pilot progression from training / cadet through props to jets

In the background dabbling in FIFO and contract ops

Can't see them doing ULC or buying out an established Bonza
Can see them doing something with QR on international if they get their Oz ownership level right though
Not just to Doha either, I can totally see QR birds with ZL paint doing Asia, NZ and US

This is not fantasy as they are already having talks
For QR
Expanded network with more metal to Oz
REX pilot academy for a source of experienced pilots
A better and more cost effective alternative than a VA buy out
For REX
A way to counteract the losses of pilots to QF and others
A career path from academy to props, jets and widebodies that is well managed
A strong financial backer
International feed

[PoppaJo]

The day I see Rex flying to LAX and DOH is the day I’ll move to mars.

[MickG0105]

On the basis that the average subsidy under the Regional Airfare Zone Cap scheme was a shade under $115 per fare, there's likely to be very little upside to the participating airlines.

Regarding Rex more generally, I have little doubt that they see themselves in a variety of different ways. They may well see themselves as God's airline; based on current numbers it looks very much as though they only make a quid on Sundays.

The cold, hard facts of the matter though are that the regional business that used to return low- to mid-single digit net profits has been wrecked. What should have been the base upon which they built their domestic jet operation has instead become, to use their own words, "a drag on the Group's performance". With a third of the regional fleet parked up, it is hard to see how that predicament might have improved.

Domestic jet operations had some four months in the black before slumping back to loss making. Something pretty dramatic happened to Rex's passenger revenues in the first six months of this year; the full extent of that will be revealed in a week or so. And they certainly don't appear to have a cogent plan for their fleet additions; they increased their fleet capacity (and fleet-based fixed-costs) by around 14 percent recently but are still operating the same number of flights as they were four weeks ago.

They are going to be leaning hard on NJE to keep some air in their life preserver. And here it is worth remembering that Rex only owns half of NJE; the other half is owned by LKH and friends.

[MickG0105]

The day I see Rex flying to LAX and DOH is the day I’ll move to mars.
If that comes to pass, I'll fly you there.

[PoppaJo]

If that comes to pass, I'll fly you there.
Take me on a Rex 777X

[Slippery_Pete]

Meaning REX don't see a future in being a stand alone regional that serves every tin pot airport that no one else bothers to serve
Prior to VA going busto, they were somewhat happy being the above and they had a reasonable association with VA happily pushing passengers to each other
When VA failed there were 2 factors leading to their foray into their jet age
1) They could be the next VA similar to when AN sent busto
2) REX had no other player left to interline to and from for their passengers transiting beyond state capitals

So point 1 a bit of opportunistic greed and point 2 a matter of survival against QF / Link that could do eg. Dubbo to Melbourne on the one ticket

Now the see themselves as a smaller version of QF / VA
Their plan I believe is
Grow jet operations to around 30 over the next few years
Offer hourly on the triangle
Cover all state capitals
Jets into regional ports such as CNS, TSV, MKY, ROK, BDB, MCY, OOL, BNK, CFS, CBR, HBA, LST
Keep larger regional operations and drop (as they have) marginal ones
Keep their customers on the one ticket from regional to other state destinations
Replace SAABs with ATRs or now more likely Q400s as they now have a few on fleet through NJE and it looks like they will start them out west

A smaller version of QF or a version of VA but with their on regional network as a feed allowing for pilot progression from training / cadet through props to jets

In the background dabbling in FIFO and contract ops

Can't see them doing ULC or buying out an established Bonza
Can see them doing something with QR on international if they get their Oz ownership level right though
Not just to Doha either, I can totally see QR birds with ZL paint doing Asia, NZ and US

This is not fantasy as they are already having talks
For QR
Expanded network with more metal to Oz
REX pilot academy for a source of experienced pilots
A better and more cost effective alternative than a VA buy out
For REX
A way to counteract the losses of pilots to QF and others
A career path from academy to props, jets and widebodies that is well managed
A strong financial backer
International feed

Wow Deano, I want some of whatever you’ve been smoking!

If (and it’s a big if) they can financially survive the next 2-3 years, then their only future lies in cannibalising the SAAB pilots to fly a slowly expanding jet operation.

The fundamental problem here is that
a) they went cheap with engine maintenance during COVID and it’s massively bitten them in the ass, and
b) the pilot shortage is real and there’s no avoiding it for them.

You say they’ll use AAPA to feed 30 jets and also Q400s, but you miss the fundamental problem. They’ve had AAPA all along, and they’re still desperately short of pilots right now. They’re clambering out the door. You can’t just click your fingers over night at AAPA and spit out 50-100 pilots per year who won’t leave. They need AAPA instructors, more GA aircraft, SAAB check and trainers, SAAB sim instructors, 737 trainers and sim checkers. Where are they going to get all of them from, when the majority of them are resigning to fly e-jets and 717s and join mainline?

Rex pilots will have a golden ticket to mainline when their recruiting kicks off again shortly, because they’re one of the few airlines producing good pilots that aren’t from a subsidiary. The trickle rates into mainline have been glacial from subsidiaries and that’s likely to get even worse. Qantas know that taking pilots from Rex means they aren’t passing in their own yard.

I have no idea why Rex are announcing courses of more Chinese pilots. It may be a good money spinner, but they should be cancelling them and training as many as possible for Rex themselves.

What I see is the SAAB operation closing down. Eventually they’ll realise they just can’t crew the thing, and so they’ll sell the airframes and use it to feed the jet operation with pilots - those that don’t end up at mainline.

And then we can all sit back and listen to another John Sharp whinge with victim media statement.

When your 50+ year old TREs are all leaving to go to Atlas, you really have to ask yourself why. Perhaps decades of ruling with an iron fist is finally coming home to roost.

[43Inches]

The SAAB operation would be fine if they had just stuck to their traditional routes and focused on what they do best. It would not have taken much negotiation to come to some agreement with existing pilots to continue to operate a reliable tight schedule in NSW, VIC and SA. However management have pretty much just ignored the pilot issue and made the situation much worse than it should be by treating people with no respect.

At the moment management inaction on pilots is costing the company probably over $100 million in revenue. There's the cancellations, reduced schedules, competition stealing loyal customers, customers defering travel or going by other methods, the list gos on. $100 mil is probably only the tip of the lost revenue iceberg.... We know the customers are there, a mate at QLink said they are getting reasonable loads on all the Rex routes.

[Ladloy]

Last I heard, cadets were breaking their 7 year contract around the 2-3 year mark for greener pastures. Paying out $120000 to leave. Cadets are usually command ready around the 3-4 year mark.

[43Inches]

The fundamental problem here is that
a) they went cheap with engine maintenance during COVID and it’s massively bitten them in the ass, and
b) the pilot shortage is real and there’s no avoiding it for them.

Don't forget that a heap of engineers walked out the door for much the same reason the pilots are leaving. So the backlog of maintenance is hamstrung by a lack of engineers as well as flying stymied by lack of pilots.

I think the whole dynamic of retain staff, or reduce the business is hitting home. Rex is in the simple position of not having looked after it's staff, now that they have options they will leave in droves until the company does something, the staff will not initiate negotiations as they don't care about the future of a company they can leave behind for greener pastures. It is entirely in managements court to offer something of an olive branch to make up for years of adversarial IR practice. Either move now, or shut the business down while it still has some cash, as the staff bleed will not abate anytime soon. I think shareholders will be very interested as to what management has done to retain staff... it might be worth a few of the free shareholders turn up to the AGM and query this.

If I had the cash I would do what management did at the start and buy out and revive the old Kendell and Hazos part of the operation, re-hire all the disaffected pilots on better lifestyle oriented contracts and upgrade the fleet. Offer better recognition for long term employees and make it a decent lifestyle choice for older pilots, not a flow through tube for new pilots (and other staff). Flick off the QLD and WA routes and focus on the main engine of the company in SE Aus.

[PoppaJo]

Last I heard, cadets were breaking their 7 year contract around the 2-3 year mark for greener pastures. Paying out $120000 to leave. Cadets are usually command ready around the 3-4 year mark.
The day of spending 7/8 years in GA are over just like the days of spending 5-10 years in Rex.

CPL Ticket to GA to Rex to Virgin under 5 years. You will not find a better time to get a CPL , the time is now.

Do you works for you, not what works for some of these businesses stuck with mindsets in the 80s ‘we own you’

[ebt]

Wow Deano, I want some of whatever you’ve been smoking!

If (and it’s a big if) they can financially survive the next 2-3 years, then their only future lies in cannibalising the SAAB pilots to fly a slowly expanding jet operation.

The fundamental problem here is that
a) they went cheap with engine maintenance during COVID and it’s massively bitten them in the ass, and
b) the pilot shortage is real and there’s no avoiding it for them.



Agreed, and I will add in point (c) - they will not be able to get 737NGs as cheaply and as quickly as they originally thought they would.

Lease rates on NGs are going up month by month, and it is only continuing as the global supply chain issues hold up the roll-out of the Maxes and Neos, while the P&W issue has carriers with big GTF-powered fleet scrambling for capacity. The first six frames Rex got were at Covid rates and PBH agreements, but in time those will roll off and the owners will jack up the rents to the current market rates, or just take them back and give them to someone that will - and there are no shortage of airlines chasing NGs with green time on their engines.

Even assuming they get to 10-12 737s over the next six months, that is still at far too small a scale to be delivering acceptable returns on their cost of capital, which has also increased due to interest rate rises. That leaves Rex vulnerable if QF or, more likely, VA decides that they want to attack the small slice of the market that they have. For now, both the big ones are making good money and don't have the spare capacity to really try and flood the market with seats to drive Rex out, being able to do so at lower (all-in) unit costs than Rex.

Rex Jet is stuck in startup mode. How long have they been promising to get a loyalty scheme together? When will they get their national network happening?

Yes, hindsight is 20/20, and if LKH knew where things were going to end up, he may not have gone into the larger market. But at the same time, I get why he did, so the issue is now to try and make the best of the situation, and that will require some decisions to be made about what the company actually wants to be: A regional airline with a Tigerair-esque appendage among its other associated businesses, or a sub-scale but full-service airline?

And while I'm on a rant - why bother with the Antarctica stuff? Oh that's right, it's The Hon's pet project from when he owned a slice of and was on the board of Skytraders.

[MickG0105]

The first six frames Rex got were at Covid rates and PBH agreements, ...

Are you sure the initial fleet is on a power-by-the-hour deal? Any details?

... And while I'm on a rant - why bother with the Antarctica stuff? ...
https://youtu.be/WDIo5kCuBSE

Expect more of the same this week and next to distract from the results.

[Lead Balloon]

JB-P used to call it 'feeding the chooks'.

[PoppaJo]

Are you sure the initial fleet is on a power-by-the-hour deal? Any details?


https://youtu.be/WDIo5kCuBSE

Expect more of the same this week and next to distract from the results.

The key dangling has started.

I disagree with the way they write these press releases, especially the comments around cancellations. Saying they are ‘spectacular’ compared to the opposition as they cancelled xx less flights vs them, is not a valid point when you have a few dozen aircraft operational while the others have a few hundred each. Also comparing your Saab operational performance against Virgin’s A320/F100 operation is just plain weird.

Plenty more key dangling to come as we now enter the golden quarter. Then the dangling stops. Then it starts up again.

Rex Tops Reliability Whilst Rivals Bomb
Monday, August 21, 2023
Rex Airlines has again been confirmed as Australia’s most reliable airline for the month of July, leading the table by a wide margin, according to the official publication by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE).

[MickG0105]

The key dangling has started.

I disagree with the way they write these press releases, especially the comments around cancellations. Saying they are ‘spectacular’ compared to the opposition as they cancelled xx less flights vs them, is not a valid point when you have a few dozen aircraft operational while the others have a few hundred each. Also comparing your Saab operational performance against Virgin’s A320/F100 operation is just plain weird.

Plenty more key dangling to come as we now enter the golden quarter. Then the dangling stops. Then it starts up again.

Rex Tops Reliability Whilst Rivals Bomb
Monday, August 21, 2023
Rex Airlines has again been confirmed as Australia’s most reliable airline for the month of July, leading the table by a wide margin, according to the official publication by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE).
Typical Rex PR clap trap. The cancellation rate totally ignores passenger impact - there's a marked difference between having your flight cancelled and being moved onto a different flight departing 30 - 60 minutes later versus having your flight cancelled when there's on average 2.5 hours between flights on the best serviced route.

In any event, ask any CEO, COO or CFO which they would prefer; 74.5 percent on time and losing money, or 71.5 percent on time and making money.

With results out next week, the old "unaudited management accounts" forecasts of milk and honey can't be far off now.

[43Inches]

Typical Rex PR clap trap. The cancellation rate totally ignores passenger impact - there's a marked difference between having your flight cancelled and being moved onto a different flight departing 30 - 60 minutes later versus having your flight cancelled when there's on average 2.5 hours between flights on the best serviced route.

In any event, ask any CEO, COO or CFO which they would prefer; 74.5 percent on time and losing money, or 71.5 percent on time and making money.

With results out next week, the old "unaudited management accounts" forecasts of milk and honey can't be far off now.

All fine except I've had several QF group cancellations on Sydney - Melbourne flights where the delay was over 4 hours, including with mainline. So your argument falls apart to say that having a more frequent schedule means less disruption to a passenger if a flight is cancelled. It all depends on why a flight was cancelled and if there was space available to accommodate everyone on the next or over several flights throughout the day.

Cancellation rates and OTP are very important for passengers on 'quick' day trips such as business travel or medical appointments. Even 1 hour delays can be the difference in getting things done or not, or having to book a hotel for the night.

[MickG0105]

All fine except I've had several QF group cancellations on Sydney - Melbourne flights where the delay was over 4 hours, including with mainline. So your argument falls apart to say that having a more frequent schedule means less disruption to a passenger if a flight is cancelled. It all depends on why a flight was cancelled and if there was space available to accommodate everyone on the next or over several flights throughout the day.

Cancellation rates and OTP are very important for passengers on 'quick' day trips such as business travel or medical appointments. Even 1 hour delays can be the difference in getting things done or not, or having to book a hotel for the night.
And of course, the anecdotal exception proves the rule.

The extraordinarily simple and uncontroversial maths that underpins the argument is that a cancellation on a route that has only five services a day with an average of roughly 2.6 hours between flights will likely cause a more significant disruption to passengers than a cancellation where the airline operates 30 flights a day with an average of less than 30 minutes between them.

[PoppaJo]

Your screwed if it swings to 25 in Sydney in the arvo regardless of carrier and if you make make it home that night, buy a lotto ticket.

I still don’t know why they are quoting that Virgin Perth ops cancel 600% more flights vs its Saab operation.

When is results day?

[43Inches]

And of course, the anecdotal exception proves the rule.

The extraordinarily simple and uncontroversial maths that underpins the argument is that a cancellation on a route that has only five services a day with an average of roughly 2.6 hours between flights will likely cause a more significant disruption to passengers than a cancellation where the airline operates 30 flights a day with an average of less than 30 minutes between them.

Except that I've worked for both QF group and Rex so know how each handle cancellations, Rex was generally the better of the two.

Rex has questionable IR/staff treatment, but their operational control and recovery is very tightly run.

[MickG0105]

...
When is results day?
For Rex, next Wednesday, 30 August.

[MickG0105]

Except that I've worked for both QF group and Rex so know how each handle cancellations, Rex was generally the better of the two.

Rex has questionable IR/staff treatment, but their operational control and recovery is very tightly run.
So when Rex cancel ZL337 BNE-SYD and their next flight is five over six hours later, how does their tightly run operational control and recovery deal with that? Teleportation?

Back in the day, not that long back in fact, Rex ran an efficient regional operation. Not any more. Their past success has been relegated to irrelevance by their current performance.

[Deano969]

Your screwed if it swings to 25 in Sydney in the arvo regardless of carrier and if you make make it home that night, buy a lotto ticket.



Don't know why SYD never built a parallel to 25 even a short runway over the fire station for regionals
A fairly cheap fix for August winds....
During 25 ops its a ghost town south of General Holmes Drive
Actually I'd reckon you could land a Q400 or SAAB on Bravo10 or Lima if you needed the extra length !!
Too often during 25 ops the runway gets congested with regionals who need the same spacing as jets

[aussieflyboy]

Don't know why SYD never built a parallel to 25 even a short runway over the fire station for regionals
A fairly cheap fix for August winds....
During 25 ops its a ghost town south of General Holmes Drive
Actually I'd reckon you could land a Q400 or SAAB on Bravo10 or Lima if you needed the extra length !!
Too often during 25 ops the runway gets congested with regionals who need the same spacing as jets

or just close 25 all together…

[dejapoo]

or just close 25 all together…

Don't be ridiculous. Please think of the lawyers!

[43Inches]

Don't know why SYD never built a parallel to 25 even a short runway over the fire station for regionals
A fairly cheap fix for August winds....
During 25 ops its a ghost town south of General Holmes Drive
Actually I'd reckon you could land a Q400 or SAAB on Bravo10 or Lima if you needed the extra length !!
Too often during 25 ops the runway gets congested with regionals who need the same spacing as jets

Turboprops need way less runway occupancy than say a 737, just that the SID/STAR system is set up for follow the leader, meaning faster traffic stuck behind slower traffic are blocked. At least off the main runways at Sydney they have early turns to allow TPs to get out of the way of jets and free up space, which means the TPs can get airborne turn off runway track and let a jet depart very close behind.

[Saintly]

I saw on facebook that Rex will be replacing the Saab 340 with Dash 8-400. Is this true?

Also, the post on facebook where i saw the news was on the Aviation WA facebook page, so if there are changes happening with the Saab 340s...then the changes from the Saab to the Dash 8-400 may only happen in WA.

[UnderneathTheRadar]

I saw on facebook that Rex will be replacing the Saab 340 with Dash 8-400. Is this true?

Also, the post on facebook where i saw the news was on the Aviation WA facebook page, so if there are changes happening with the Saab 340s...then the changes from the Saab to the Dash 8-400 may only happen in WA.

there was discussion about wetleasing to cover the WA contract routes

[smiling monkey]

I saw on facebook that Rex will be replacing the Saab 340 with Dash 8-400. Is this true?

Also, the post on facebook where i saw the news was on the Aviation WA facebook page, so if there are changes happening with the Saab 340s...then the changes from the Saab to the Dash 8-400 may only happen in WA.

I believe it's to be operated by NJE which is now a part of the Rex Group. NJE has a Q400 base in ADL and now BNE so who knows, the change to Q400 may extend to other states.

[dejapoo]

there was discussion about wetleasing to cover the WA contract routes

Yes due to no pilots. All off to Q

[MickG0105]

Rex FY23 Results (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02705082). A statutory profit (that is correct, profit) after tax of $14.4 million.

In a master-stroke of creative accounting they decided that NJE, a business that they paid $48.18 million for, is worth $142.673 million (that is despite them having previously valued NJE at $77.645 million back in December 2022).

​​​​​​Fernangling aside, they lost $31.7 million. Passenger revenues collapsed by over 8.5 percent in the six months to 30 June.

[PoppaJo]

Now considering they released monthly, unaudited, 737 profit numbers to the market for 5 months, one would assumed they would be posting a profit today, well that is what they have led the market to believe.

Misleading behaviour.

[ebt]

Rex FY23 Results (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02705082). A statutory profit (that is correct, profit) after tax of $14.4 million.

In a master-stroke of creative accounting they decided that NJE, a business that they paid $48.18 million for, is worth $142.673 million (that is despite them having previously valued NJE at $77.645 million back in December 2022).

​​​​​​Fernangling aside, they lost $31.7 million. Passenger revenues collapsed by over 8.5 percent in the six months to 30 June.

Worth noting too that the NJE "fair value gain" of $44.5 million came despite the unit contributing losses of $6.3 million to the bottom line.

I want some of what they're smoking.

[43Inches]

Rex FY23 Results (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02705082). A statutory profit (that is correct, profit) after tax of $14.4 million.

In a master-stroke of creative accounting they decided that NJE, a business that they paid $48.18 million for, is worth $142.673 million (that is despite them having previously valued NJE at $77.645 million back in December 2022).

​​​​​​Fernangling aside, they lost $31.7 million. Passenger revenues collapsed by over 8.5 percent in the six months to 30 June.

Haven't bothered to read it, but did the pax numbers collapse year on year, or just since December, as the months from Feb to mid year are traditionally low times for Australian airlines.

Anyway is all has to be Audited by an independent agency for the ASX, so they can only be so creative.

Imagine how much more 'profit' they may have actually made if they had retained even 30% of the pilots that left and were able to operate normal services, rather than bleed profit to QF group.

[gamma69]

I guess it is embarrassing when pre Covid years Rex always bolstered we made more profits than QF And VA combined. Now creative accounting to match profits with the big players. Maybe the scones and clotted cream doesn’t taste that good. Reap what you sow Rex. 👍

[Ladloy]

Sugarcoat it for me Deano

[PoppaJo]

Sugarcoat it for me Deano
7777777777s are coming. LAX and DOH

It’s all gonna be good!

[dejapoo]

Where's Deano? Doin his tripler endo? "Our hearts in Doha"

[43Inches]

Where's Deano? Doin his tripler endo? "Our hearts in Doha"

Get it right, he's taking delivery of the new battery powered electric A350. It will commence operations on the new hub busting Mildura direct Doha service, codeshare with Delta, and Bonza.

[MickG0105]

One positive to come out of this; with the profit before tax of (ahem) $12.8 million, that should clear any hurdles for backpay under the pilots' EBA.

What will be interesting is whether the "profit" is deemed to have also cleared the hurdles for the Executive Bonus Share Plan. Any betting on how that will play out?

[dejapoo]

Get it right, he's taking delivery of the new battery powered electric A350. It will commence operations on the new hub busting Mildura direct Doha service, codeshare with Delta, and Bonza.

Has Baxter st approved such a project? Wotabout mouthpiece his Excellency Akbar Al Beetroot Face?

[43Inches]

One positive to come out of this; with the profit before tax of (ahem) $12.8 million, that should clear any hurdles for backpay under the pilots' EBA.

What will be interesting is whether the "profit" is deemed to have also cleared the hurdles for the Executive Bonus Share Plan. Any betting on how that will play out?

You are joking right? You of all should know how this 'profitable loss' or is it a 'loss making profit', will be worded in regards to who gets what...

[Deano969]

Reducing operating loss by over $70mil per annum is nothing to be sneezed at, particularly when you consider
REX is a transitioning airline moving from purely regional to mainline jet ops with regional feed
Around double the revenue from 2022 to 2023
There is still coin available from PAG
Pilot drain and maintenance issues due to supply chain problems

Big picture dictates an operating loss of $32mil is not the end of the world
250 or so return trips sold per day will wipe this out rather quickly

[ebt]

Reducing operating loss by over $70mil per annum is nothing to be sneezed at, particularly when you consider
REX is a transitioning airline moving from purely regional to mainline jet ops with regional feed
Around double the revenue from 2022 to 2023
There is still coin available from PAG
Pilot drain and maintenance issues due to supply chain problems

Big picture dictates an operating loss of $32mil is not the end of the world
250 or so return trips sold per day will wipe this out rather quickly

OK sure it's good, but it is all being driven by the revenue coming back as it ramped back up of operations, and that as we know hit a bit of a pothole. Rex lost focus on their core regional business and are going to be sub-scale in the jet business for a while. They are going through the PAG coin pretty quickly, and that will only accelerate as the costs are rising above what they must have planned for. Oh, and what's the price of oil like these days?

Look, I personally want to see Rex thrive and become a viable third competitor across the country, and perhaps they can. It's just at this juncture, it seems that the spin machine is running hard and they are facing some challenges. They aren't insurmountable, but you also need to be realistic.

[SHVC]

I have just come into few thousand from sharks looking to re invest soooo is it a good time to buy Rex shares they seem very cheap!

[Deano969]

Buy low sell high

[Deano969]

New route BNE-ADL

[MickG0105]

I have just come into few thousand from sharks looking to re invest soooo is it a good time to buy Rex shares they seem very cheap!
Well, not that this should be treated as financial advice, but 5.30pm-ish on Friday and here's the view from Rexville

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/858x1073/screenshot_20230901_183511_slides_9c3da6f4b2aeefff2096c3c0b8 9c6287a6b97a0c.jpg
ZL143 SYD-MEL, ZL368 SYD-BNE, ZL152 MEL-SYD

Rex's heart might be in the country but you get the feeling that their customers are on someone else's flights.

[Deano969]

88 103 74 sold respectively meh, not great but certainly could be doing better
Obviously they could be selling more, but they are selling seats for higher prices that a few months ago so their yields per seat are up a fair bit, they seem to be pitching their pricing around the same as VA
Had a look at QF for the same say, loads looking more solid, however they have a lot of blocked seats on most flights, are these sold or reserved for staff?

[Ladloy]

88 103 74 sold respectively meh, not great but certainly could be doing better
Obviously they could be selling more, but they are selling seats for higher prices that a few months ago so their yields per seat are up a fair bit, they seem to be pitching their pricing around the same as VA
Had a look at QF for the same say, loads looking more solid, however they have a lot of blocked seats on most flights, are these sold or reserved for staff?
Going with your argument, QFs price is much higher.

[markis10]

88 103 74 sold respectively meh, not great but certainly could be doing better
Obviously they could be selling more, but they are selling seats for higher prices that a few months ago so their yields per seat are up a fair bit, they seem to be pitching their pricing around the same as VA

Same day is somewhat irrelevant, 5Pm Friday should be a sellout which it was with JQ/QF and VA at that time on the triangle. It’s when you make the yield to cover less favoured times. if you are seeing a lot of blocked seats on a Qantas flight same day then your not looking at accurate seat maps, blocks are removed at T-80 for QF with the exception of chairman’s lounge. At least Rex seem to be filling the J cabin, maybe they could look at all J, maybe not given what happened to Ozjet. As for yield, fare bucket information for each flight would give you a better idea than spot pricing.

[MickG0105]

Trying to avoid that sort of rank nonsense is why I use the Block function. If you have aircraft tooling around the triangle only half full on a Friday between 5pm and 8pm, something is wrong. And not just "meh" wrong, something is desperately wrong.

On the first Friday of September last year, Rex moved a shade over 1,430 pax between Sydney and Melbourne on ten flights (5 return services). Yesterday, they had fewer than 1,400 pax spread over their 14 flights between Sydney and Melbourne.

The maths is not particularly difficult. On what should be a money making day on a money making route, Rex were haemorrhaging.

[Hollywood1]

Might have something to do with JQ’s improved OTP and reliability. Folks who were voting with their feet 12 months ago are returning to JQ as they have more flights during the day to choose from and the brand new NEO LRs are much more attractive than clapped out 73s.

[PoppaJo]

I don’t think people care if it’s a NEO or an old 737. The passenger they are targeting likely wouldn’t even know what they are flying on, nor would they care. It’s all about price.

Rex would be wise to introduce a hand baggage only fare, like Virgin did. Melbourne to Sydney is heavily skewed carry on.

[Mr Mossberg]

I've partaken of a bit of travel lately. If Virgin or Qantas are the same price as REX or even a few bucks more, I'm going with VA or QF. I've got a credit card that gets me in to the Virgin lounge, I've got a few passes floating around for QF. Rarely are Jetstar cheaper than a VA flight if you're flexible with flight times. REX fares appear random, it's like they set prices randomly not via an algorithm, and Jetstar's algorithm looks weird when some of their flights cost more than a QF. Either way, the pair of them are weird.

[43Inches]

I don’t think people care if it’s a NEO or an old 737. The passenger they are targeting likely wouldn’t even know what they are flying on, nor would they care. It’s all about price.

Rex would be wise to introduce a hand baggage only fare, like Virgin did. Melbourne to Sydney is heavily skewed carry on.

I don't think that would be on the cards, as Rex is marketing the added extras like bags included and tea/coffee and a snack included.

The problem that Rex has always had is marketing, full stop... the product is great, just they have always sucked at letting people know they exist. That's the problem when you see things like crew and advertising as waste of money.

And yes, sitting down the back of a 737 is the same for a passenger in virtually any of them, just some of the older ones are looking a bit ratty at the moment.

[PoppaJo]

Once the 777s arrive and they start hitting LAX and DOH they should become a bit more well known.

When is that starting again?

[Deano969]

Once the 777s arrive and they start hitting LAX and DOH they should become a bit more well known.

When is that starting again?
QR still think they have a chance with up to 21 extra flights weekly
If there is zero chance of extra flights, talks will heat up again

QR are also in talks with VA much along the same lines
Either way one of these 2 will get WBs if things don't go QRs way

[SilverSleuth]

Either way one of these 2 will get WBs if things don't go QRs way

soooo wrong on both accounts

[Seriously]

Rex cannot fly internationally as they’re majority foreign owned, so even if Qatar bought them they’re not flying to Doha.

[ACMS]

A lot of negative cock heads in here.
nearly every flight I’ve done has had good loads lately.
spin it how you want ( no QF VA JQ bias in here ! ) but people livelihoods depend on this operation and so far it looks ok.

oh and the pax all love flying Rex, the crew are fantastic the service and free check in bags appreciated. They don’t know or care it’s not a brand spanking new max.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

so far it looks ok
Except on paper, and at the bank.
free check in bags
They're not free. They're included. You are paying for them. Just the same as you are paying for them in any fare with any carrier that has checked luggage included in that fare. The difference I guess is that Rex don't give you an option to not pay for them and thus get a cheaper fare.

[43Inches]

Except on paper, and at the bank.

They're not free. They're included. You are paying for them. Just the same as you are paying for them in any fare with any carrier that has checked luggage included in that fare. The difference I guess is that Rex don't give you an option to not pay for them and thus get a cheaper fare.

I see that you are very well 'conditioned' by the corporate sales department to accept this as normal when beyond 20 years ago it was always 'included'. In any case the airlines dont carry much freight on domestic routes so the hold will just be empty space and the fuel savings maybe a few kilograms over a sector where no one has 'paid' for luggage space.

[Ladloy]

A lot of negative cock heads in here.
nearly every flight I’ve done has had good loads lately.
spin it how you want ( no QF VA JQ bias in here ! ) but people livelihoods depend on this operation and so far it looks ok.

oh and the pax all love flying Rex, the crew are fantastic the service and free check in bags appreciated. They don’t know or care it’s not a brand spanking new max.
Yeah livelihoods of working to the dollar of jobkeeper during covid, no more. 'Livelihood' of working minimum wage as a Saab FO. 9 YEARS, 150k loan at 10% if you're a cadet.

If the company fell over tomorrow the vacuum would be filled by some other entity, and hopefully with better conditions for all the staff and pax. Especially the regional pax.

Rex pilots are leaving in droves as they're finally figuring out their worth.

[Deano969]

Yeah livelihoods of working to the dollar of jobkeeper during covid, no more. 'Livelihood' of working minimum wage as a Saab FO. 9 YEARS, 150k loan at 10% if you're a cadet.

If the company fell over tomorrow the vacuum would be filled by some other entity, and hopefully with better conditions for all the staff and pax. Especially the regional pax.

Rex pilots are leaving in droves as they're finally figuring out their worth.
Was the last EBA not endorsed by well over 80% of pilots?

[43Inches]

Was the last EBA not endorsed by well over 80% of pilots?

More likely so that those leaving could lock in back pay and increases before the exodus. Rex needs to up its pay by 50% to offset the crew bleed at the moment. I've heard a number of the reliable old hands will be retiring over the next 24 months, many pushed over the edge by workload and out of base duties. There cant be much of an experience base after they leave. The SAAB operation will be all but dead unless they do something drastic right now.

[Colonel_Klink]

A lot of negative cock heads in here.
nearly every flight I’ve done has had good loads lately.
spin it how you want ( no QF VA JQ bias in here ! ) but people livelihoods depend on this operation and so far it looks ok.

oh and the pax all love flying Rex, the crew are fantastic the service and free check in bags appreciated. They don’t know or care it’s not a brand spanking new max.

Before you go lecturing the rest of us on livelihoods, I will direct you to Project Mother, where Sharp was salivating at the idea of taking advantage of a workforce going through administration. So forgive me for not jumping for joy at everything Rex, an organisation that was gleefully trying to pay jet pilots 10% lower than the cheapest NB pilots in the country.

Going through that presentation 3 years after the first thought bubble - well it makes for interesting reading.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1617/6e413e38_a492_4d4e_b4df_b5b170d9e826_eb3836329fe1f6b49b6ee0c e07d56228a7366f1a.jpeg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1531/6a75858e_63fb_436c_b9d1_fd01d2eb6503_58a19d59f6928e30e030572 abcf1b47721d32017.jpeg
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1048/36ad56cc_cbc7_4f47_aab0_be7349af45f1_06c76758f6f1130817bf9d3 e6c278eb5f49bae88.jpeg

[Ladloy]

Was the last EBA not endorsed by well over 80% of pilots?
over 100 pilots have left since it was signed. A third of the group, mostly from the LHS. Thats a huge drain. They wanted to ensure they were paid their backpay as it was written thay those who stay get it paid every year for 3 years, if you leave it's paid outright.

[No Idea Either]

And that folks is the problem".."…………
if the Rex eba was voted up 80% just so those that leave can get back pay, well then I for one condemn those that voted for it for that reason. Talk about self interest……..I hope they went overseas because if they’re now at QF, VA, JQ or Bonza and vote like that again, then what hope do we have as an industry. For those of you who have only been here for less than 10 years or so, let me tell you that the industrial conditions at the moment favouring the pilots are the best it’s been in 30 years. I say again THIRTY YEARS. If we can’t take advantage of that then we’re all fuc#ed………….

[ANstar]

Rex cannot fly internationally as they’re majority foreign owned, so even if Qatar bought them they’re not flying to Doha.
Foreign owned just like VA and Bain no? There are ways around it.

[PoppaJo]

Before you go lecturing the rest of us on livelihoods, I will direct you to Project Mother, where Sharp was salivating at the idea of taking advantage of a workforce going through administration. So forgive me for not jumping for joy at everything Rex, an organisation that was gleefully trying to pay jet pilots 10% lower than the cheapest NB pilots in the country.

Going through that presentation 3 years after the first thought bubble - well it makes for interesting reading.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1617/6e413e38_a492_4d4e_b4df_b5b170d9e826_eb3836329fe1f6b49b6ee0c e07d56228a7366f1a.jpeg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1531/6a75858e_63fb_436c_b9d1_fd01d2eb6503_58a19d59f6928e30e030572 abcf1b47721d32017.jpeg
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1048/36ad56cc_cbc7_4f47_aab0_be7349af45f1_06c76758f6f1130817bf9d3 e6c278eb5f49bae88.jpeg

Project Mother was built on opinion, not reality. It was purely what Rex wanted to hear, and what Rex wanted to eventuate, completely disregarding the reality of the situation.

The statement in regards to Virgin exiting the process with high costs and low pax numbers is bizarre and indicates they have a very bare understanding on how the administration process works.

Rex wanted to rip accumulated entitlements from flight crew quite proudly, he said it with a smile at many press conferences, and it’s mentioned in many press releases, and mentioned in the above presentation. Disgraceful organisation that has no place in our industry.

[Bull_Shark]

Before you go lecturing the rest of us on livelihoods, I will direct you to Project Mother, where Sharp was salivating at the idea of taking advantage of a workforce going through administration. So forgive me for not jumping for joy at everything Rex, an organisation that was gleefully trying to pay jet pilots 10% lower than the cheapest NB pilots in the country.

Exactly this, well said!

Rex had no hesitation in sinking the boot into Virgin and it’s staff when they were on the ropes hoping to then scoop up a whole lot of unemployed and desperate staff rewriting a new low standard for jet pilots in this country letting a very few megalomaniac management and check pilots live out their dreams of finally being bigger and better than Virgin, Qantas or Jetstar.

Rex aren’t the saviours of aviation in Australia and god help us (passengers and staff alike) should they realise their plans of becoming a major player.

[Wizofoz]

Exactly this, well said!

Rex had no hesitation in sinking the boot into Virgin and it’s staff when they were on the ropes hoping to then scoop up a whole lot of unemployed and desperate staff rewriting a new low standard for jet pilots in this country letting a very few megalomaniac management and check pilots live out their dreams of finally being bigger and better than Virgin, Qantas or Jetstar.

Rex aren’t the saviours of aviation in Australia and god help us (passengers and staff alike) should they realise their plans of becoming a major player.
You mean like Virgin did when Ansett went into administration? That was most certainly when the downward spiral in Airline Ts&Cs started.

[The Love Doctor]

I will direct you to Project Mother, where Sharp was salivating at the idea of taking advantage of a workforce going through administration. So forgive me for not jumping for joy at everything Rex, an organisation that was gleefully trying to pay jet pilots 10% lower than the cheapest NB pilots in the country.



All airline pilots both here and overseas who are contemplating joining Rex should never forget this

[Wizofoz]

All airline pilots both here and overseas who are contemplating joining Rex should never forget this
VB paid 60% less than the existing airlines when it started.

[PoppaJo]

Well, not that this should be treated as financial advice, but 5.30pm-ish on Friday and here's the view from Rexville
What about this morning Mick? Time to update the market on the declining performance?

These slots would be better off given to Bonza.

[MickG0105]

What about this morning Mick? Time to update the market on the declining performance?

These slots would be better off given to Bonza.
Well, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are my preferred days to fly for good reason; generally the lightest loads of the week.

That said, Rex's first flights of the day are much lighter than the competition. ZL9 SYD-MEL left with around 55 pax and ZL18 coming the other way was carrying 70 pax. For comparison, VA (which operated three flights in the 20 minutes or so either side of the Rex flights) averaged 103 and 113 pax respectively.

And this time last year, the same Rex flights for the first Tuesday in September were carrying 102 and 153 pax respectively.

Stepping back a bit, yesterday was Rex's second worst day since late July; about 1,080 pax SYD-MEL-SYD spread over 14 flights, about 2,690 on 28 flights on the triangle, and just under 4,100 pax on 42 flights for the domestic jet network.

That capped off their worst week in the past six weeks; 29,975 network pax over 278 flights.

People can dress it up anyway they like but there appears to be something definitely wrong with Rex's domestic jet operations patronage. At best, they don't appear to have grown their customer base over the past twelve months, and they are now just atomising that base over an increasing number of flights.

Who knows though, maybe last week was an aberration and things are on the improve. Doubtless Rex will let us know as soon as there's even a glimmer of things turning around.

[chuboy]

VA loads don't seem that great either considering they have a much larger market share and footprint. Given the state of the economy today I'm surprised it wasn't fewer than 55/70 pax you counted.

[43Inches]

I wouldn't be surprised if the two large operators QF and VA haven't over saturated all the markets in reaction to the Covid angst travel spike. It might be a lean 12 months ahead for everyone, which may be why AJ has pulled the pin earlier as public pressure mounts on all aspects of QF operations over the last few years. This might play well for Bonza and Rex as they (QF group and VA) pull back flights and leave some holes in the non-peak times. I heard anecdotal evidence that Perth loads for QF and VA are less than half, and have seen Syd/Mel loads with most passengers with rows to themselves on these operators. Haven't traveled with Rex for ages so can't comment on them. This is probably the real reason QF has high cancellation rates on this sector, yield management, rather than other operational issues, have to keep those slots filled with scheduled flights so no-one can argue their use, then cancel the flight and merge it when it's not profitable. Hopefully the government looks at 'used' slots rather than 'scheduled' slots when they redistribute.

[MickG0105]

I can't attest to QF or JQ numbers to Perth, but across all of yesterday and so far today, VA have moved nearly 2,950 pax to Perth from the east coast on 21 flights (plus one cancellation). Including the cancelled flight, that's 134 pax per flight. There was one very light load in that sample; only 35 odd pax on VA697 out of Melbourne last night.

All the caveats around small samples apply, YMMV.

[Deano969]

My home loan repayments have risen from $2423 to $3696 per month that's around $15,000 extra per year after tax and I'm not alone
Rents on the sunny coast have risen about 50% over the last year and a bit
Electricity, gas, rates, water, food, fuel and just about everything is surging in price
Equating to less disposable coin for Joe Public to spend on holidays
Businesses are also pulling the purse strings on expenses
If we had no immigration, we would be in a serious recession

So no surprises that loads are suffering
There will either be a run of sales or frequencies will need to be cut
This may be a bit of a dilemma for QF at SYD as they will not want to give up their slots if this downturn is sustained
Could we see Q400s replacing 737s SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE to maintain full loads on smaller birds to keep slots :D

[KRUSTY 34]

Project Mother was built on opinion, not reality. It was purely what Rex wanted to hear, and what Rex wanted to eventuate, completely disregarding the reality of the situation.

The statement in regards to Virgin exiting the process with high costs and low pax numbers is bizarre and indicates they have a very bare understanding on how the administration process works.

Rex wanted to rip accumulated entitlements from flight crew quite proudly, he said it with a smile at many press conferences, and it’s mentioned in many press releases, and mentioned in the above presentation. Disgraceful organisation that has no place in our industry.

Wanted to hear, wanted to eventuate, completely disregarding reality. Sounds suspiciously like a certain personality trait that we all know and love?

[mikewil]

My home loan repayments have risen from $2423 to $3696 per month that's around $15,000 extra per year after tax and I'm not alone
Rents on the sunny coast have risen about 50% over the last year and a bit
Electricity, gas, rates, water, food, fuel and just about everything is surging in price
Equating to less disposable coin for Joe Public to spend on holidays
If we had no immigration, we would be in a serious recession

So no surprises that loads are suffering

Could we see Q400s replacing 737s SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE to maintain full loads on smaller birds to keep slots :D

With that said, if we had no immigration, rents would have increased 0% rather than the 50% you mentioned above, so renters wouldn't be as strapped for cash.

[Deano969]

With that said, if we had no immigration, rents would have increased 0% rather than the 50% you mentioned above, so renters wouldn't be as strapped for cash.
Rents started going up during the pandemic with no immigration go figure?
Yet they were still building houses and apartments ...
Sunny coast saw greater that average as southerners relocated up here during and after the pandemic

All that said, you cant argue a lot of people are finding things very tough at the moment and that will certainly put a damper on anything leisure related and would explain the lower load factors

[markis10]

Immigration and rent rises are unrelated, it’s more due to a pent up desire to travel causing landlords to look at short term accomodation (AirBNB) as a cash cow vis long term. Why get $600 a week when you can get that for a few nights a week and not have the long term wear and tear, especially given immigration was not happening during COVID when the rental crisis started. Land banking is not helping, I haven’t seen latest figures but places lick Docklands in Melbourne have a 10% occupancy on any given night.

That same pent up desire to travel is why airlines should be soaring, and it’s still happening according to the pundits that know.

[MickG0105]

It's 5pm ... do you know where your customers are?

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/896x1566/screenshot_20230906_173658_slides_4fbaeaec2f799f7bb3f8374a46 64ad50e4d17b42.jpg
ZL152 MEL-SYD 17:15 dep (l), ZL143 SYD-MEL 17:20 dep (r)

[Icarus2001]

Immigration and rent rises are unrelated,

Are you kidding?

There are 7,700 people arriving in Australia each week! Given around 3,300 deaths a week in Australia that is a very large amount of people looking for somewhere to live.

[43Inches]

Land and house 'investment' is the major factor causing Australian housing to inflate in price. There is more than enough land for 50 times the population, however it is sold by land holders at a drip feed to ensure they get more for their land each time. Then the developers take their part, the cost of improvement and such adds to the basic land price and then the cost of capital improvement. Before the home owner/renter steps foot in their property there has been a massive level of profit already made. Then come the capital gains speculators, who only buy the property as an asset that basically solidifies cash into something that appreciates over time, without having to do anything, sometimes these investors will own several properties and not even rent them out, just using them as a safe haven for their cash. These investors will not part with the house at a loss, and don't care for the dips and waves of the market. Then comes the home owners with more dollars than sense who will pay whatever the seller wants, sometimes competing for the same property. And many other levels of investors, before an immigrant and their family buy an entry level property in poorer crammed in suburbs. Yes, immigration adds a small amount to the price pressure at the lower end, but the main driver of Australian properties and rental prices is people investing to make money from the property market, AND, no lack of people willing to pay the prices advertised. At some point rentals will have to adjust to follow the price of housing.

The only way to stop the appreciation of the housing market is to make it less attractive to own a house, get rid of negative gearing, beef up capital gains tax, increase interest rates on investment loans, increase rates and land tax, introduce death taxes and so on.... Things like inheritance tax make it very hard for generational land holdings, unless the land/property is financially cash positive, as the tax on large land estates basically wipes out any profit you can make, so no more land banking and drip feeding land to developers and so on... With those sort of taxes the capital gains investors will flee and the prices will collapse, but there will not be many 'empty' houses as you will need the rent to make any empty property even remotely viable.

[PoppaJo]

It's 5pm ... do you know where your customers are?
Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.

[43Inches]

I tried to book on the later flight, which is the commuter one, and it was booked out... 5:15PM day trippers are still packing up from the days work. If you are catching the 5:15pm you probably finished work at 3PM.

[Colonel_Klink]

Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.

Would be interesting to know how many of those J class seats are paid for, or are just free upgrades?

[MickG0105]

Mick the trend appears to be, they do well in off peak non business times, but do terrible in peak business periods.

If you have a look, flights are actually much heavier at lunchtime and late late night. Busy on a Friday to Sunday, however that is only half of it. Then, Virgin is the reverse, heavier in peak and lighter in off peak, the margin is in peak though!

They really appear to only carry the scraps of any business traffic, probably as much as Tiger Air did back in the day. They really need to get that fixed before fuel goes on another road trip, which appears that trip has just started, will bleed them dry flying around like that for half the day.
They're certainly shaping up as God's airline - Sundays are their best day for loads. Fridays have tended to be their best day for pax numbers but spread over more flights than Sundays. And yep, on the triangle and generally, it's the middle of the day when they see reasonable loads.

Melbourne - Brisbane is their most solid city pair on the triangle for loads; they limit themselves to 2 return services a day there. Melbourne - Gold Coast is generally solid (one return a day) as is Sydney - Adelaide (also one return a day).

When they were starting to hit their straps this time last year, there was good evidence of solid corporate bookings; good early am and 5pm - 7pm loads on the triangle, Monday to Friday. That now appears to be missing, and that is going to sting as the economy cools.

Their next play is going to be Brisbane - Adelaide. It will be interesting to see how that goes; it's an already pretty well serviced route. Shades of their play for Melbourne - Hobart there perhaps; that was a reasonably well serviced route when they chipped in mid-August.

[43Inches]

I think it just shows the absolute lack of marketing at play here, tomorrow you can get $120 fares all day, yet QF is asking $500+ after lunch, meaning you could be paying over $1000 for a Sydney to Melbourne return, economy, when Rex will only charge you $240 return. Now that means either Sydney siders are incredibly stupid, or they have no idea how much they are being ripped off, ie, they have no idea Rex is that much cheaper. And, to be honest, if you can afford to be paying $1000 return on Sydney - Melbourne - Sydney, then there is definitely no cost of living emergency...

[das Uber Soldat]

You had me at sydney-siders being incredibly stupid.

[MickG0105]

I tried to book on the later flight, which is the commuter one, and it was booked out...
Anyone guess as to why it looked booked out – ZL161 flew with over 40 empty seats, ZL171 had just shy of 70 empty seats. Rex ended up carrying a handful less than 1,120 pax between SYD-MEL for the day spread over 14 flights.



… Now that means either Sydney siders are incredibly stupid, or they have no idea how much they are being ripped off, ie, they have no idea Rex is that much cheaper ...
Or they’ve planned ahead and have already got themselves a cheap QF seat or they are wanting to travel at a time that falls into that 5-6 hour chasm between Rex’s last morning flight and their first afternoon/evening service.

[43Inches]

Anyone guess as to why it looked booked out – ZL161 flew with over 40 empty seats, ZL171 had just shy of 70 empty seats. Rex ended up carrying a handful less than 1,120 pax between SYD-MEL for the day spread over 14 flights.




Or they’ve planned ahead and have already got themselves a cheap QF seat or they are wanting to travel at a time that falls into that 5-6 hour chasm between Rex’s last morning flight and their first afternoon/evening service.

Yeah, I doubt that it jumped suddenly from $150 odd a seat to $500+. A lot of passengers have booked tickets well in excess of the Rex price, even if they didn't get to $500. To me that shows a very large number of punters are not shopping around, or are fooled that the loyalty programs might save them money. And to restate, if they are willing to pay an extra $400 to save 3 hours then there is definitely no cost of living problem here....

[Ladloy]

Yeah, I doubt that it jumped suddenly from $150 odd a seat to $500+. A lot of passengers have booked tickets well in excess of the Rex price, even if they didn't get to $500. To me that shows a very large number of punters are not shopping around, or are fooled that the loyalty programs might save them money. And to restate, if they are willing to pay an extra $400 to save 3 hours then there is definitely no cost of living problem here....
Have a walk in a qantas terminal and guess the median age. The cost of living emergency affects a certain age group more than others. Those 60+ increased their wealth in the last 12 months while the 20 to 35s are going backwards.

This paints an interesting picture. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-27/boomers-boosting-inflation-as-the-rba-lifts-rates/102610512)

[Lead Balloon]

<snip> To me that shows a very large number of punters are not shopping around, or are fooled that the loyalty programs might save them money. And to restate, if they are willing to pay an extra $400 to save 3 hours then there is definitely no cost of living problem here....There are lots (and lots) of public sector people (public ‘servants’, members of parliament advisors, pollies etc) doing lots (and lots) of air travel, for whom the cost of air fares (and airline lounge membership) is irrelevant. It’s paid for by the taxpayer.

[43Inches]

There are lots (and lots) of public sector people (public ‘servants’, members of parliament advisors, pollies etc) doing lots (and lots) of air travel, for whom the cost of air fares (and airline lounge membership) is irrelevant. It’s paid for by the taxpayer.

That's been an issue for a long time as well, given that the pollies/public servants of the major parties will only travel with QF mainline group and if there's no QF flight they charter a private jet, even if the destination is served by another airline. Tax dollars up to good use....

I've run a lot of flights to regional centers where well known smaller party members are down the back and the major party members fly in on the same direct route via private charter or RAAF jet. There were a few major party members who went out of their way to only use regional RPT instead of charters, but only a few, and they made sure everyone around them knew they were supporting the 'local' airline.

[Lead Balloon]

Really for the Qantas thread, but ordinary members of the public have become pretty much a sideshow for Qantas. Ordinary members of the public are to Qantas like GA is for the leased Commonwealth airports: An irritating legacy issue getting in the way of profits. (However, it must be acknowledged that profit can be made by Qantas out of ordinary members of the public by charging them in advance for services not provided (and of course from government handouts paid for by the public), and by airport lessees out of GA infrastructure by destroying it. Neat tricks!)

[Xhorst]

Yeah, I doubt that it jumped suddenly from $150 odd a seat to $500+. A lot of passengers have booked tickets well in excess of the Rex price, even if they didn't get to $500. To me that shows a very large number of punters are not shopping around, or are fooled that the loyalty programs might save them money. And to restate, if they are willing to pay an extra $400 to save 3 hours then there is definitely no cost of living problem here....

You haven't looked very hard. Unless you want to travel same/next day, there are heaps of $150 QF fares SYD/MEL, and at peak times too, quite often.

[43Inches]

You haven't looked very hard. Unless you want to travel same/next day, there are heaps of $150 QF fares SYD/MEL, and at peak times too, quite often.

There's no actual $150 fares for QF until mid next week, and then they are suspiciously at only the exact same departure time as the Rex flights. The tab says there is some cheap fares earlier but when you click on the date its all a minimum of $200, even if you use your FF points you still have to pay half a Rex fare. The next few days are $500 except a few very late departures. There's a couple of J* $400 fares.

[Deano969]

Loads on the 737 were all pretty much full yesterday out of Melbourne
Fairly quick turn around from last week, perhaps Mick can confirm this or find a flight with a sub 50% load anywhere on the jet network

[MickG0105]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/972x1643/screenshot_20230910_153614_slides_104f32dd027f638388859b7f1e 14e5808ba27610.jpg

You're welcome.


Rex moved just shy of 1,080 pax between Sydney and Melbourne yesterday over 8 flights; essentially full loads out of Melbourne, averaging 103 pax per flight going the other way.

[1A_Please]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/972x1643/screenshot_20230910_153614_slides_104f32dd027f638388859b7f1e 14e5808ba27610.jpg

You're welcome.


Rex moved just shy of 1,080 pax between Sydney and Melbourne yesterday over 8 flights; essentially full loads out of Melbourne, averaging 103 pax per flight going the other way.
Given Sydney Swans played a final in Melbourne on Saturday, it would astonishing if just about every seat on MEL-SYD was not full on all airlines yesterday.

[Chris2303]

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/972x1643/screenshot_20230910_153614_slides_104f32dd027f638388859b7f1e 14e5808ba27610.jpg

You're welcome.


Rex moved just shy of 1,080 pax between Sydney and Melbourne yesterday over 8 flights; essentially full loads out of Melbourne, averaging 103 pax per flight going the other way.

From where is this seat map sourced?

[KRUSTY 34]

Anyone guess as to why it looked booked out – ZL161 flew with over 40 empty seats, ZL171 had just shy of 70 empty seats. Rex ended up carrying a handful less than 1,120 pax between SYD-MEL for the day spread over 14 flights.




Or they’ve planned ahead and have already got themselves a cheap QF seat or they are wanting to travel at a time that falls into that 5-6 hour chasm between Rex’s last morning flight and their first afternoon/evening service.

I Reckon you may have something there Mick. Economies of scale meets available slots maybe?

[MickG0105]

From where is this seat map sourced?
expertflyer.com (https://www.expertflyer.com/)

[43Inches]

Even the interstate trains get booked out during finals season for the right match combos, if you are not full on those days your marketing is worse than trains with no marketing....

[Chris2303]

expertflyer.com (https://www.expertflyer.com/)

Thank you.

Please be aware that the only seat map showing the actual load is the one that is produced for despatch. Any other map is showing only those pax who have prebooked their seats.

[MickG0105]

Thank you.

Please be aware that the only seat map showing the actual load is the one that is produced for despatch. Any other map is showing only those pax who have prebooked their seats.
Those maps have routinely proven to be very accurate once the flight has been closed out in the relevant GDS. You can see the transition from pre-booked only to allocated seats from pre- to post-close out.

[PoppaJo]

Someone told me this week the next 737 will be named after John Sharp including the rego?

Please tell me that was just a joke?