Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

[cee cee]

Muslims prefer their departed to be buried quickly.

I would suggest that it is not just the Muslims. Bodies don't keep well in the weather there (hot and damp). That would bring about a culture of quick burials.


The bodies may hold clues that the plane broke up at altitude, which has implications in the search for the fuselage.

The news report interviewed someone from the hospital who said that the bodies recovered so far were in one piece, only bloated from being in the water. Also, the bodies recovered by the US ship today were reported to be more than 30 miles (confirmed was not kilometres) (source BBC news) away from the other bodies, and some were still strapped to their seats. That seems to suggest a possible mid-air breakup.

[Shandy52]

Strait Times reports:PANGKALAN BUN/JAKARTA - An Indonesian Navy vessel detected an object suspected to be the tail of AirAsia flight QZ8501 on Friday, Metro TV reported.

If you will excuse a query from a non-pilot... Is it at all likely, if the tail has been found separately from the fuselage, that the separation occurred at altitude? And could such a separation go some way towards explaining the aircraft's behaviour?

[AirScotia]

@cee cee

The news report interviewed someone from the hospital who said that the bodies recovered so far were in one piece, only bloated from being in the water. Also, the bodies recovered by the US ship today were reported to be 30 miles (or was it kilometres) away from the other bodies, and some were still strapped to their seats. That seems to suggest a possible mid-air breakup.

Presumably a spread of bodies (I've read 5km somewhere, so this is yet another unclear area), could be caused by sea currents over the course of five-six days? So not necessarily down to the bodies being released from the airframe at height.

[AirScotia]

@Shandy52

If you will excuse a query from a non-pilot... Is it at all likely, if the tail has been found separately from the fuselage, that the separation occurred at altitude? And could such a separation go some way towards explaining the aircraft's behaviour?

The tail of AF447 was also found floating on its own, but the plane had been completely intact when it hit the water. So this doesn't necessarily suggest separation at altitude.

[ManaAdaSystem]

it was found that the new take Air Asia weather information material at 07.00 pm after the impact of lost contact QZ8501 and not before take off

Does this say what I think it says?
Somebody picked up a weather breifing after the accident to make it look like the pilots dis this before the flight?
They departed without any weather information?

[MELT]

Mr Snuggles

Just to add to what you have said. You are correct that ELTs are not 100% reliable, however it is important to distinguish between the different types of ELTs. The old 121.5/243Mhz ELTs suffered poor reliability, but the newer 406MHz ELTs have, in the main, proved extremely reliable.

I am not aware of any civil airliner installed with an AF (Automatic Fixed) 406MHz ELT that crashed on land, where the ELT was not activated. What can though happen in a crash is that the antenna become detached from the beacon. This has happened in particular in helicopter crashes and is one of the reasons at least two ELT manufacturers build their ELTs with back-up antenna. Before anyone mentions the case of the Air Inter Airbus A320 Mont St Odile crash, this aircraft did not have an AF ELT, or for that matter any other ELT installed.

Of course as already mentioned once the antenna of an ELT is submerged, then whilst the ELT will still function, the antenna will obviously not be able to send a transmittable signal to the satellite. I doubt a ditched and intact airliner would sink within the 50 seconds before first transmission of a distress signal after activation. Then again I doubt an airliner could successfully ditch in the state of seas being discussed here.

[island_airphoto]

Does the A320 radar do vertical mode?
http://cdn.avweb.com/media/newspics/325/GWX_vertical_scan.jpg

[Sop_Monkey]

Mana

Don't think lack of current en route WX is worth getting too excited over. If you are near the ITCZ, you can expect rough WX, sig met or no sig met.

One should expect the worst WX and hope for the best WX, in-spite of any en route forecast.

[ekw]

The Java Straits have been churning like a washing machine the past few days so this could also explain dispersal of bodies and floating debris.

Autopsies are absolutely needed as part of the crash investigation but there is nothing to stop bodies being released quickly for burial after the State Pathologist has certified cause of death and noted types of trauma visible on the body.

[AirScotia]

So it's beginning to seem that AirAsia had no permit to fly SUB - SIN on Sundays, only Mon, Tues, Thurs, Sat. The 28th December flight was the first Sunday flight for the carrier, and it was unlicensed.

What are the implications of this for flight support arrangements?

Izin Rute AirAsia Surabaya-Singapura Dibekukan - Kompas.com (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2015/01/02/205840526/Izin.Rute.AirAsia.Surabaya-Singapura.Dibekukan)

Google translation:

JAKARTA , KOMPAS.com - The Ministry of Transport (MoT ) suspended license AirAsia fly Surabaya - Singapore route . Freezing is valid since 2 January 2015. The provision of these sanctions related to violations of operational time AirAsia Surabaya - Singapore route .

By virtue of a DGCA No. AU.008 / 30/6 / DRJU.DAU - 2014 dated October 24, 2014 regarding permission Foreign Flight Period Winter 2014/2015 , Surabaya - Singapore route given to Indonesia AirAsia is Monday, Tuesday , Thursday and Saturday .

Meanwhile , unknown turns AirAsia also opens the route service on Sunday ( 12/28/2014 ) . QZ8501 passenger aircraft and 7 crew 155 people have departed from Surabaya to Singapore on the day . Shortly after takeoff , the aircraft is believed to fall around the Gulf Karimata , Central Kalimantan .

" So this is the temporary suspension of the license AirAsia flights Surabaya - Singapore route , " said Head of Public Communication Ministry of Transportation JA Batara in his official statement , Jakarta , Friday ( 02/01/2015 ) .

This freezing sanctions contained in the letter of the Director General of Civil Aviation No. AU . 008 / 1 / 1DRJU - DAU -2015 by January 2, 2015. The Ministry of Transportation will review the sanctions have completed the National Transportation Safety Committee investigation results related incidents AirAsia QZ fall of 8501 .

" While the handling of passengers who have had the AirAsia flight tickets Surabaya - Singapore pp (roundtrip ) to be redirected to another flight in accordance with , " said Barata .

[Jet Jockey A4]

Sorry for the slight detour off thread but since they brought up the subject of Baro Altitude versus GPS Altitude I'm curious...

Besides the fact the Earth is not perfectly round thus rendering wrong GPS altitudes information (now taken care of by software adjustments), isn't one of the major problems for using GPS altitude the fact that we fly a constant pressure wave/altitude as we set 29.92/1013 on our altimeters and this pressure wave is not at a constant altitude above the Earth's surface?

When I look at our GPS altitude in our FMS, sometimes it is 1000 feet if not more off the Baro altitude and sometimes it is really close but I have never seen them match each other.

Could/can they even have a solution to solve this problem?

Also since aircraft performance is based on a "standard pressure" and if we now decide to switch to GPS altitude and now fly a "true" altitude above the Earth's surface how would that affect the aircraft's performance because now instead of being at a constant FL410 pressure altitude you might be at a 42,300 feet altitude?

[ManaAdaSystem]

Mana

Don't think lack of current en route WX is worth getting too excited over. If you are near the ITCZ, you can expect rough WX, sig met or no sig met.

One should expect the worst WX and hope for the best WX, in-spite of any en route forecast.

I agree, but if it's correct, it does suggest AirAsia tried to cover up the fact that they left without the required weather briefing.
That says something about their corporate culture?

[training wheels]

"It might be useful ..."
Maybe useful to you and a sense of curiosity shared by tabloids- but not to families who want to bury their dead, preferably in tact.

Yes, the same goes for motor accident victims as well. Some are even buried on the same day they died.

A TV news reporter reported that the first body found and buried had severe head injuries to the extent that she was not recognizable and that identification had to be done by other means. I noticed also that the body was buried in a wooden coffin which is not normal for a Muslim burial. Muslims are usually washed first, then wrapped in white cloth and buried with only the cloth that they were covered with. They are placed on their side with their face facing towards Mecca.

For a Muslim burial to take place with the use of a coffin would suggest that the above standard practice was not possible for reasons you can deduce.

(apologies for the morbid description)

[Sop_Monkey]

Mana

In defense of the pilots, who are unable to defend themselves, all required up to date WX may have been downloaded on ACARS. This of course would be able to be verified. What about Volmet?

Is it still necessary to keep "knocking down a good chuck of the rain forest" every flight that is carried out?

[training wheels]

Is it possible the pilots were not properly informed about the weather en-route?
Head of Data and Information BMKG Juanda , Bambang Setiajid , confirmed information that Air Asia QZ8501 not ask weather briefing . Though BMKG data showed growth cumulonimbus cloud remarkable since 02.00 .

I used to operate an early morning flight out of Surabaya, where scheduled departure time for us was 0600 local. My reporting time at flight operations was 0500 and we often had to wait until 0530 for the weather forecasts to come through from the briefing office because they were not adequately staffed for the early morning departures. Although this is no excuse if they did infact depart without a weather forecast, it does however highlight the difficulties that crews face when operating in this part of the world.

[BG47]

@Airscotia it’s also interesting that the pax for that flight were contacted to show up 2 hours earlier then scheduled. 23 pax missed this flight because they did not check their phone/email (thankfully).

So were the pilots scheduled for this flight? or were they called out/reserve pilots?

[fireflybob]

In defense of the pilots, who are unable to defend themselves, all required up to date WX may have been downloaded on ACARS. This of course would be able to be verified. What about Volmet?


Sop_Monkey, can you get a Sig Wx/Radar Images on ACARS?

When you say Volmet would that be HF as VHF Volmet only transmit METARs as far as I am aware?

[Sop_Monkey]

Bob

On the aircraft I last flew IIRC, you could download the latest accessible satellite view on a separate monitor. We were able to download almost everything else worth noting on the acars, of course. Notams, WX, company comms, flight plans etc. (no not a complete WX package)

Volment HF, tafs, Metars and SIG met.

"Sig Wx/Radar Images"? I used the WX radar for that.

In some of the areas, remote or not, you arrived at briefing to the tune of teleprinters rattling away with no paper and the "operators" asleep. That is when alternate means came in handy.

[SAMPUBLIUS]

its NOT wood my friend- its typical unpainted "honeycomb" - " fiberglass based " interior panels viewed from the backside.

[bille1319]

Originally Posted by Suastiastu View Post
"It might be useful ..."
Maybe useful to you and a sense of curiosity shared by tabloids- but not to families who want to bury their dead, preferably in tact.

Apparantly 41 souls who perished were members of Surabaya's Mawar Sharon Church according to their Pastor and were travelling to Singapore on holiday. I don't know whether it is Pentecostal or Presbyterian but 1/4 of all aboard; what a heart breaking tragedy?

[The Ancient Geek]

However, recovery from a stall requires:

1. reduce AoA, and
2. regain airspeed

Training emphasis has recently shifted towards the first, and I miss that in his post.

Adding power to regain airspeed is NOT the way to recover from a stall.
Underwing engines will create a pitch up force when power is added so it is essential to get the nose down FIRST before making matters worse by adding power.
Once the wing has been unloaded and the AoA is correct power can be added carefully to regain speed or minimise loss of altitude.

[fireflybob]

it is essential to get the nose down FIRST

What if the nose is already down? (A/c can stall in any attitude and airspeed).

Better to say "move the control column (or sidestick) centrally forward until the stall identification ceases" - then recover from the resultant unusual attitude.

[Ian W]

Sorry for the slight detour off thread but since they brought up the subject of Baro Altitude versus GPS Altitude I'm curious...

Besides the fact the Earth is not perfectly round thus rendering wrong GPS altitudes information (now taken care of by software adjustments), isn't one of the major problems for using GPS altitude the fact that we fly a constant pressure wave/altitude as we set 29.92/1013 on our altimeters and this pressure wave is not at a constant altitude above the Earth's surface?

When I look at our GPS altitude in our FMS, sometimes it is 1000 feet if not more off the Baro altitude and sometimes it is really close but I have never seen them match each other.

Could/can they even have a solution to solve this problem?

Also since aircraft performance is based on a "standard pressure" and if we now decide to switch to GPS altitude and now fly a "true" altitude above the Earth's surface how would that affect the aircraft's performance because now instead of being at a constant FL410 pressure altitude you might be at a 42,300 feet altitude?

The answer is that everyone has to fly using the same datum. (Posted earlier) So either everyone flies on GPS altitude or on a pressure datum altitude. For engines pressure is important as is temperature with temperature sometimes having more impact. As I posted earlier as you follow the pressure level you will descend and climb along that pressure level. This is an issue that is in the 'too difficult' pile at the moment but will eventually have to be approached as satellite based systems become more ubiquitous and reliable. The question will be which of the systems is more efficient from a fuel burn point of view and which is the safest. A brief read of the NASA ASRS (confidential reporting system) is frightening for the number of altimeter setting errors. If the decision was to be made without all existing grandfathered in altimetry equipment and procedures, nobody would ever suggest using barometers (altimeters) with multiple datum changes for measuring aircraft altitude.

[Frequent_Flyer]

Hello there,
I'm a flight attendant so I hope you do not mind me posting and asking the following which came to my mind:
-One of the people 'fished out' of the sea was a flight attendant.
-She seems to have ben burried at the speed of light.
Question: Why is there no information on an autopsy on her or other PAX?
Afterall, an autopsy can probably give vital clues to this incident. For example, hypoxia, level of stress an fear, certain organ damage can be examined and provide clues to whether there was discompression, whether people had time to get scared etc. Just like autopsys would be performed with any incident on ground where people have died and a criminal investigation in neccessary.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts ladies and gents!

[Evey_Hammond]

I also have the same question as Frequent_Flyer and equally with no morbid curiosity. One thing that would be determined in an autopsy is whether there is water in the lungs of the deceased which would end speculation regarding whether the person was alive or dead when the plane hit the water.

[ACLS65]

There is a whole host of information that can be gathered about the crash from the autopsies of the victims. The details are pretty morbid, but the information could be critical.

Though it tends to become news fodder it is really a key part of the investigation. See the link below regarding AA587 as an example of the information gained.

Victim Fragmentation Patterns and Seat Location Supplements Crash Data: American Airlines Flight 587 | Amy Mundorff - Academia.edu (http://www.academia.edu/1978841/Victim_Fragmentation_Patterns_and_Seat_Location_Supplements_ Crash_Data_American_Airlines_Flight_587)

[Livesinafield]

I also have the same question as Frequent_Flyer and equally with no morbid curiosity. One thing that would be determined in an autopsy is whether there is water in the lungs of the deceased which would end speculation regarding whether the person was alive or dead when the plane hit the water.

If the bodies have been submerged for a few days then everything will be full of water regardless of whether they are breathing at the time or not

[deadheader]

"Doctors have said they are not attempting to establish a cause of death. Their focus is on identifying victims quickly and returning them to their families".

AirAsia flight QZ8501: 30 bodies recovered after six days of searching (http://www.smh.com.au/world/airasia-flight-qz8501-30-bodies-recovered-after-six-days-of-searching-20150102-12gufh.html)

[Organfreak]

Deepest apologies if this has already been said; I am two pages behind in catching up here:

Also - and echoing an earlier post - no information has come out about the cause of death identified in the bodies brought back to shore. Distressing as it is to the families, the condition of the bodies may be an important clue as to what happened to the plane.

I can't speak with any authority whatsoever, since I can't fly (and that's a good thing), but the fact that the bodies recovered so far are, apparently, relatively intact, gives the lie to the preposterous speculation that the airplane was pointed straight down at impact. Wouldn't we have nothing left but small fragments in case of a high-velocity impact?

By the same token, if there had been a "water landing," you'd likely expect some death by drowning autopsy results. :ooh:

[Bobman84]

"Doctors have said they are not attempting to establish a cause of death. Their focus is on identifying victims quickly and returning them to their families".

Can understand the need to return the victims' bodies to their families, but not investigating the cause of death is a pity as it helps understand the final events a little better and if anyone suffered.

[jcjeant]

Frequent FlyerQuestion:
Why is there no information on an autopsy on her or other PAX?
Afterall, an autopsy can probably give vital clues to this incident. For example, hypoxia, level of stress an fear, certain organ damage can be examined and provide clues to whether there was discompression, whether people had time to get scared etc. Just like autopsys would be performed with any incident on ground where people have died and a criminal investigation in neccessary.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts ladies and gents! Thanx.
Will be released in due time and certainly a summary (as usual) in the final investigation report
Note that the general public is not a partie of the criminal investigation .. as usual

[langleybaston]

If the accident were, for example, under British jurisdiction surely autopsies would be deemed essential, regardless of religious sensitivities?

[Leightman 957]

Not many pics of debris yet. This appears to be another view of same debris as in earlier posts here. Some readers may recognize pieces and, more importantly, call attention to details that suggest the type of forces involved in the ac coming apart.
BBC News - AirAsia QZ8501: Search for plane focuses on seabed (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30654163)
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/80017000/jpg/_80017193_c8610f66-4a38-416f-8d74-3131f49c8f64.jpg

[oldoberon]

Surely any/all religious practices/requirements/preferences/rites etc should be secondary to the legal requirements of a crash investigation, after all some crashes are crime scenes.

SAMPUBLIUS, yep it's not wood, as you say fibreglass panels. From A320?, the hose appears to be an air feed or extraction for filtration.

[londonman]

Unfortunately, with some religions they override any concept of what we in the West might expect in our culture with respect to establishing cause of death, crash investigation.

[DrPhillipa]

Indonesia is constitutionally a secular state. It also seems that these flights actually serve a large proportion of ethnic chinese Christians.

[peekay4]

Unfortunately, with some religions they override any concept of what we in the West might expect in our culture with respect to establishing cause of death, crash investigation.
This has nothing to do with religion.

What Indonesia is doing is standard practice for large aircraft accidents in most countries (including major accidents in the U.S.) It would be highly impractical and extremely time consuming to conduct detailed autopsies -- to the point of determining the cause of death -- for all 162 victims.

Instead, an abbreviated autopsy is performed on each victim primarily to establish the victim's identity. In Indonesia, this is done under Police jurisdiction (from DVI -- Disaster Victim Identification unit).

Typically all victims are photographed, x-rayed (including dental x-rays) and fingerprinted. DNA samples may be taken from soft tissue, especially on limbs recovered without a body. Toxicology drug/alcohol samples may be obtained from some victims (typically any identified cockpit crew).

Major internal & external injuries are also noted, along with any foreign material found (embedded debris, shrapnel), burn marks, etc. E.g., "left tibia broken, right lung lacerated, body intact, no burn marks, no water in lung".

All of the information will be consolidated into a database, for later investigation by the National Transportation Safety Committee.

As an example, a similar abbreviated process was used in the US even on the TWA800 crash -- when the FBI suspected that a bomb might have downed the airplane.

[DrGitfinger]

Some of the photos here (http://www.lekiuk.com/gallery.php?dir_2=7) (choose A320 in the menu on the left and then "Overhead bins") show hoses which look rather like that visible in the pictures of that collection of debris.

[formulaben]

However, recovery from a stall requires:

1. reduce AoA, and
2. regain airspeed

Well, you're half right. :D

[island_airphoto]

Anyone remember "step on sky"? Unload the plane to zero AOA and use rudder to level the wings :ok:
Works great on some airplanes, AA over Long Island not so much :(

[silverstrata]

Firefly:

A/c can stall in any attitude and airspeed.
Nonsense.

We are talking commercial aviation here, not aerobatic puddle-jumpers. If you are pulling that much g that you stall with the nose low and with a high airspeed, then the stall-condition is NOT your primary problem.




Airphoto:

Anyone remember "step on sky"? Unload the plane to zero AOA and use rudder to level the wings :ok:
Yeah, except we don't use rudder to level the wings in commercial jets. The rudder is immensely powerful, especially with twins, and has to be treated with respect.

Let's say the left wing stalls and drops. If you kick too much right rudder, the swept wing makes the right wing violently drop. This leads to the perception that the right wing has now stalled, even though you may actually have successfully unstalled the aircraft. So you kick left, and now the left wing drops. And what you have just successfully achieved, is to do an American Airlines 587, and break your tail off. And it was all one big PIYaw and PIRoll (as opposed to a PIO), and nothing to do with the stall.

The recommended technique is push the c/c forwards (I term it this way for a reason), reduce the thrust a bit, gain some speed, and THEN roll the wings level. Simple and safe.

[formulaben]

...and that's exactly what may have happened this this accident.

Nonsense?

[EDLB]

The nominal G limit choosen for the high operation coffin corner is 1.3G. Flying a 30 degree bank angle will stall you there. What about any updraft in an ITCZ CB?

[fireflybob]

silverstrata, it may be nonsense to you but it's fundamental that an aircraft can stall in any attitude and airspeed.

[Midland63]

Lurking slf comment alert!

What always surprises me reading these threads is the amount of disagreement among the pro's about topics which I would have thought were quite basic such as stall recovery. I hope as a fare paying passenger that this is because many comments are from people who are not actually professional pilots.

I strongly suspect that in a year or two's time when the report into this has been finalised, it will be shown to have been something nobody's yet thought of.

Thanks for the opportunity to comment.

[Ka6crpe]

I must agree with Silverstrata. Even in light aircraft we do not teach using the rudder to lift a wing. Its apply sufficinet rudder to stop the yaw, and ease the control centrally forward to reduce AoA and increase airspeed. Increase throttle to reduce rate of sink, but be aware that increased power may tend to raise the nose. Once airspeed has been regained then its aerilon to roll level, and ease control back to obtain correct attitude.

Using rudder to lift a wing will often cause unintended secondary effects.

[Airbubba]

Anyone remember "step on sky"? Unload the plane to zero AOA and use rudder to level the wings
Works great on some airplanes, AA over Long Island not so much

Yeah, except we don't use rudder to level the wings in commercial jets. The rudder is immensely powerful, especially with twins, and has to be treated with respect.

Well, actually years ago American Airlines had an Advanced Aircraft Maneuvering Program that taught aggressive use of the rudder to level the wings in an upset recovery. This AAMP was all the rage in airline training departments and in my opinion rudder use was sometimes implemented to an extreme degree in recovery profiles.

As the FAA put it in the 'Lessons Learned' from the AA 587 crash:

8. The American Airlines Advanced Aircraft Maneuvering Program ground school training encouraged pilots to use rudder to assist with roll control during recovery from upsets, including wake turbulence.

9. The American Airlines Advanced Aircraft Maneuvering Program excessive bank angle simulator exercise could have caused the first officer to have an unrealistic and exaggerated view of the effects of wake turbulence; erroneously associate wake turbulence encounters with the need for aggressive roll upset recovery techniques; and develop control strategies that would produce a much different, and potentially surprising and confusing, response if performed during flight.

From: lessonslearned.faa.gov

AA Captain Warren VanderBurgh, famous for his 'Children of the Magenta Line' speech, is also closely associated with the AAMP.

These days, rudder kicks in airliners to recover from an upset are definitely no longer in the vogue I would say.

[fireflybob]

These days, rudder kicks in airliners to recover from an upset are definitely no longer in the vogue I would say.

As far as I was concerned it never was.

[Eutychus]

Hello, I hope this isn't too much of a tangent.

I follow these threads mostly to help deal with my SLF flying anxiety, and it really does help. Apologies in advance for sloppy terminology or other ignorance. My O Level physics was a long time ago.

Can anyone clarify something about aircraft stalls for me?

The Wikipedia page on aircraft upset, allegedly quoting an FAA manual, suggests that "pitch attitude" is one critical factor in stall conditions. This has confused me because, following this and other similar threads here, I thought the critical factor was not pitch (which I understand as the lengthwise inclination of the aircraft relative to the horizontal plane) but angle of attack (which I understand as, roughly speaking, the angle of the wing to the airflow).

Thanks to anyone with the mercy and patience to respond.

[HarryMann]

.. it probably comes from very high aspect ratio sailplanes, as well as some military aircraft (built like brick ****houses)

In the sailplane case, aileron would do very little or even a control reversal and pilot wouldn't want to push forward much (increase sink, or fall out of thermal) and a wee (but rapidly applied) bit of rudder keep that wing from dropping further (being a massive span).

Also note that it isn't always the 'dropping' wing that is the problem but the 'dragging back' wing, due to stall drag. With slower larger span aircraft the difference between outer and inner wingspeed is not insignificant... and may need correcting rapidly.. hence rudder!

How AA were conducting that programme without Airbus' input or comment and why, when an aircraft has most all the inbuilt stability to deal with most things thrown at it... well?

Controls centred and see what happens, then correct alittle (and consistently) if it climbs, dives or rolls away... (in heavy turbulence) could perhaps be one way of summing up a general approach.

[DCrefugee]

@HarryMann:

it probably comes from very high aspect ratio sailplanes, as well as some military aircraft (built like brick ****houses)

As well as from vintage taildraggers, like Cubs and Champs, which didn't feature things like differential ailerons -- they probably hadn't been invented when these aircraft were designed -- and with which margins for error are greater.

@Eutychus:

I thought the critical factor was not pitch (which I understand as the lengthwise inclination of the aircraft relative to the horizontal plane) but angle of attack (which I understand as, roughly speaking, the angle of the wing to the airflow).

Your understanding is basically correct. The Wikipedia article is imprecise.

Most of the time (e.g., calm air and unaccelerated (1G) flight), the airplane's pitch attitude and its wing's AoA are coincident -- tied to each other. (Which is not to say the airplane's pitch attitude and AoA are the same.) It gets more interesting when gusts with vertical components, G-loading and other factors are considered.

It's rather common for the wing's critical (stalling) AoA to be exceeded even though the airplane's pitch attitude is not as high.

[island_airphoto]

Professional has little to do with it, it is more what they fly. My experience is all in straight wing piston and turboprop airplanes. Swept wing jets can react a *lot* differently than small straight wing airplanes.
That said, there ARE different schools of thought about how to fly all kinds of airplanes. That makes all these forums and pilot break rooms entertaining ;) The flight school I went to was one of the "new way to fly, don't scare the students, we love our utterly benign nice wing wash-out Piper Warrior" schools. Coordinated rudder and aileron recoveries were what we learned and the planes tolerated it. Later on I learned from old time fighter pilots in some less forgiving airplanes the real use for rudder pedals :cool:
If I ever get type-rated in a jet the stall recoveries will be taught specific to that airplane. As of yet no one knows if stalls had ANYTHING to do with the current crash.

@Midland63
What always surprises me reading these threads is the amount of disagreement among the pro's about topics which I would have thought were quite basic such as stall recovery. I hope as a fare paying passenger that this is because many comments are from people who are not actually professional pilots.

[BG47]

some years ago a Miami based commuter (CRJ??) flew through CB over Freeport, Bahama. The crew lacked cold weather operations and neglected to turn on the a/c heats. According to reports the a/c tail accumulated substantial amount of ice resulting in the a/c tumbling tail over nose several times. The crew was able to regain control of the a/c only to have the a/c tumble once again tail over nose several times. The crew regained control and landed safely. What did ATC observe on their screen that day?

Was the Airasia pressure vessel compromised at high altitude? if so could the crew don their mask? other factors -30/-40 degree temps, spin, inverted spin, inverted a/c etc

[freespeed2]

Also, the bodies recovered by the US ship today were reported to be more than 30 miles (confirmed was not kilometres) (source BBC news) away from the other bodies, and some were still strapped to their seats. That seems to suggest a possible mid-air breakup.

While not ruling out the possibility of a mid-air breakup, this discovery would not necessarily provide evidence to support it. In the normal ocean currents over 5-6 days this distance is perfectly plausible for drift in the water.

http://physics.gallaudet.edu/OceanMotion/oscar/uvmean/spd/2013/03/spd03_20131201.png
This is courtesy of NASA and shows the currents for December 2013. 0.5 m/second = approx. 1 nautical mile per hour. While an object will not travel at the same speed as the current, over 96 hours since the crash, 30 miles is possible if the aircraft broke up on impact.

[roulishollandais]

For the moment we don't know what happened.

1. But why did the information of the very crazy vertical speeds, aswell climbing and descending, seen on the radar scope, need so many days to be published?

Some individual seem to have been quickly informed : to build a storry?

2. Is it the core of the crash of the Air Asia A320? But once again we have the discussion about the zoom climb followed by a decreased lift -stall or drop- possibly due to the "system".

I will say it again and again, any system, FBW or classical- needs absolutely two qualities : OBSERVABILITY and CONTROLLABILITY :

In the classical -and simple, because we don't need complexity to fly!- aircrafts, without these limitations called "protections", the pilot uses his/her stick to control the effective system, for instance to avoid overspeed.

But in a FBW system the pilot is "limited" in his/her action in that controllability.

In consequence we need another actuator to control the aircraft after that limit is reached. In the gums' F-16 exists a Nz actuator on the top of the stick controlling Nz and gums may control his aircraft. But in Airbus airliners no such actuator exists... Controllabilty is lost...:\

My question is : who decides during the design which actuators will be present to do what? Aeronautic Engineer or System Engineer? I think the latter who did not order the actuator to the first :\

[caulfield]

Well,all this talk is well and good but no one has the guts to say what is obvious.Airmanship is not taught and nurtured anymore,especially in Asia/Africa.Was it ever I hear you ask.Cant say third world anymore as its verboten.They only teach SOP's and rote automated flight.Even the supposed legacy carriers in the region like Jet Airways.I witnessed the CP of Adamair(same airline where this Air Asia pilot previously worked) land at Pontianak with flaps 15 and a touchdown speed of 175 knots.Ive seen it all and its a long list of woe believe me including:
-wx radar brightness at min during day so no returns showing
-attempting to traverse storm cells with range set to 80 leading to blind alley
-afraid to disengage AP unless below 500
-flying manually(those brave enough to try) with AT engaged and unable to maintain alt in a turn
-No idea of N1 and pitch for different flight regimes
-unwilling and unable to fly a standard visual approach
-following magenta line into storm cells(that was Air India Express at Calicut)
-blocking out all the flight deck windows with the Jakarta Times
-totally lost without flight director
-plethora of hot and high approaches(AP engaged with GS capture,speed building and cant take flap)-classic case and very frequent due military airspace and late descent clearance-dont understand concept of energy management when forced to maintain altitude
-focus on complex unnecessary SOP(look at Lionairs lights policy for example-Its a landing light for Gods sake,put it on when youre landing and no it doesnt matter who puts it on) all the while neglecting to instill basic flight skills in their pilots.
-not being able to work out descent profile but blindly following VNAV even if its not appropiate to reality
-cant fly in HSI mode,only MAP..whats a VOR?NDB?Raw data anyone?No,just give me that good old magenta line.
-putting FO's on line who cant takeoff/land and its approved by their CAA even without a third pilot
-Pilots with 5000+ hours who have never not used autobrake
-hard landings
-bounced landings
-FDM used incorrectly as a means of intimidation so basic flight skills(manual flight ILS/visual approach) cant be practiced on line

The list goes on.I should write a book.How I escaped flying in the Far East and lived to tell the tale.
The way I see it is we need to call a worldwide conference and look at what automation,SOP/rote focus and P2F has done to our profession.Let the airlines who still know a thing or two about real flying(airmanship) like Qantas/SWA/BA/Lufty take the lead and see what we can do to stamp out this menace that is giving our profession a bad name.Because if we dont do something about it and planes keep crashing because there was no glidelsope or because they pulled rather than pushed in a stall we may just find ourselves redundant.Right now a pilotless airliner is bad joke but who knows in 20 years?

[bud leon]

Yes, a return to western imperialism is definitely called for. :ugh:

[Propduffer]

You would think that the guy would get seat of the pants flying credit for his F-5 time. They are about as automated as a Volkswagen beetle.

And all his flying time was on or near the ITCZ so he couldn't have been a neophyte where it comes to weather.

I have had no hesitation pointing a finger at Zaharie, but this guy had all the makings of a good pilot AFIK.

[FLEXPWR]

Bud leon, this has nothing to do with imperialism.

This is a hard reality. Flying in Asia for many years now, I cannot disagree with caulfield views and observations. Of course it may or may not be relevant to Air Asia's current misfortune.

I fly with first officers who are ready to upgrade to captain, and have NEVER flown the A320 without ATHR. NEVER flown with FD's OFF. NEVER opened a book about aviation since they got their CPL, except the simulator syllabus for a 6 month check. Only when fully established on the ILS will SOME disconnect the autopilot before the minimums or 500 feet.

When you ask some basic questions like how TAS can be estimated, the answer is "look at FMS distance remaining and divide by the flight time to destination". No joke.

The laws of physics and aerodynamics are not to change, but over the years, beancounters et al. have sold to a wide audience that with today's technologically advanced aircraft, all you need at the pointy end is a couple of guys pushing buttons to keep all flight parameters in check. Nothing could be more wrong. This includes how the wx radar is used. This includes, unfortunately, how decision making is integrated, or not, in today's airline culture.

I do hope the above-mentioned aspects will not be found to be a contributing factor in the demise of this aircraft. But it is a possibility.

[Airbubba]

Ive seen it all and its a long list of woe believe me including:

Thanks for sharing this list. I've seen much of that in my expat days, the folks back in the U.S. think you are making stuff up if you tell them about it.

Unfortunately, I'm starting to see some of the same trends in the U.S. lately.

To add to the weather discussion, this article from the Malaysian Star tabloid:

Updated: Saturday January 3, 2015 MYT 11:10:53 AM

AirAsia QZ8501: Ice likely culprit in crash

SINGAPORE: Extreme bad weather triggered last Sunday's crash of AirAsia Flight QZ8501, Indonesia's weather officials said Friday, as Russia became the latest nation to get involved in the search effort for the doomed jetliner.

The 14-page "meteorological analysis" is the first official word from Jakarta on the reasons for the crash and comes close to confirming widespread speculation on the reasons for the disaster.

"The most probable weather phenomenon is that icing caused the plane engines to be damaged," said the report by Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).

"This is however just one analysis of what likely happened based on available meteorological data, and is not the final determination on the cause of the incident."

BMKG's report, authored by Professor Edvin Aldrian, head of its research and development unit, came as high waves impeded divers from entering the sea.

...BMKG said its preliminary analysis of weather data suggested the AirAsia Airbus A320-200 had flown into storm clouds. It also noted that weather charts issued before the flight showed the plane's scheduled route at cruising level would come across "worrying" conditions, with warnings of a gale. Satellite images also suggested peak temperatures of -80 to -85 deg C, which meant there were grains of ice in the dense clouds, the report added.


AirAsia QZ8501: Ice likely culprit in crash - Nation | The Star Online (http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/01/03/AirAsia-Icing-Crash/)

The BMKG report, written in Indonesian, is here:

http://data.bmkg.go.id/share/Gambar_Foto/Artikel/KECELAKAAN_AIRASIA_QZ_8501_ANALISIS_METEOROLOGIS.pdf

[SAMPUBLIUS]

REPORTING FROM SINGAPORE [Times are in GMT+8, unless specified]
THE LATEST

10:53AM: Main wreckage of plane has been located, says Indonesia's search and rescue agency. Two large objects roughly 30 metres under the sea have been spotted near oil spills in the area near Pangkalan Bun.

[Leightman 957]

Hardly "main" debris, but makes a nice headline.

"The first object measured 9.4 meters by 4.8 meters by 0.4 meters (30 feet by 15 feet by 1.3 feet), while the second is 7.2 meters by 0.5 meters (24 feet by 1.6 feet), he said.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/indonesia-widens-search-area-hunt-airasia-jet-021843141--finance.html

[Suastiastu]

"over the years, beancounters et al. have sold to a wide audience that with today's technologically advanced aircraft, all you need at the pointy end is a couple of guys pushing buttons"


Not sure that this is a purely Asian or African idea. What Asia has is a very rapid expansion in aviation, so modern techniques are more prevalent. Air Asia has flown more than 220 million PAX and not lost one before. The way to determine if the bean counters are right is to look at the stats.

[Richard C]

""The most probable weather phenomenon is that icing caused the plane engines to be damaged," said the report by Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)."


Engine icing doesn't explain why the aircraft made no radio calls and why it travelled only 10km from a height of 36000 ft.

[ipsatex]

Erroneous overspeed warning, pilot induced climb, stall ....?

[Richard C]

"Erroneous overspeed warning, pilot induced climb, stall ....? ":

Yes, instrumentation icing does explain the observed facts a lot better.

But the last word, of course, will be from the air safety investigators, not meteorologists.

[catterwell]

About 10 km horizontal from 36,000 feet implies a descent angle of about 45 degrees. If wind accounted for some of this angle, that's quite a fall.

[Ranger One]

Airbubba, that's interesting.

Hard factual information will mostly have to wait for wreckage and especially FDR/CVR recovery of course, and much speculation before then is bootless and to me somewhat distasteful when done in public - but I've been keeping my eyes open for a proper formal met. aftercast; that should be available *now*.

What, exactly, were the conditions at the precise time and place they lost contact...

[Ollie Onion]

So they are flying along, encounter some pretty bad weather and request deviations to avoid. Pitots ice up and give erroneous indications leading to the PF inducing a 1.6g pull up resulting in a 10,000 ft/min climb and speed quickly reducing down to below stall speed. Aircraft ends up with 16 degree pitch up / 40 degree angle of attach / 60kt groundspeed and 11,000 ft / minute descent.

Total confusion on the flight deck as when the G/S drops below 60 kts the aural stall warnings stop as the angle of attack information is unreliable below this speed leading to 'reversed' indications i.e. push nose down and speed increases and 'STALL STALL' warning starts, pull back and reduce power and 'STALL STALL' warning stops.

Aircraft impacts the ocean with very little forward speed, a high rate of descent and a very high pitch.

No mayday call due to the very busy confused cockpit workload, not much left on the surface as the aircraft impacted in one piece at slow speed.

Oh oops, I have summarised the Air France 447 crash. :suspect: I hope this is not the case, it would be a real shame for those lessons to have not been learned.

[oldchina]

"The first object measured 9.4 meters by 4.8 meters by 0.4 meters (30 feet by 15 feet by 1.3 feet), while the second is 7.2 meters by 0.5 meters (24 feet by 1.6 feet), he said".

Those objects are pretty large by A320 standards. Both are bigger than the vertical stabiliser (approx. 5.9m).

[mikedreamer787]

Erroneous overspeed warning, pilot induced climb, stall ....?

Or EXPED button pushed above F250 in concert with TAI non-activation/failure?

Or Erroneous Alpha Prot activation (AB AD 2014-0266-E)?

Point is there's no use speculating any of this until at least the preliminary investigation has been completed.

[Nemrytter]

To add to the weather discussion, this article from the Malaysian Star tabloid:
...
The BMKG report, written in Indonesian, is here:
http://data.bmkg.go.id/share/Gambar_...TEOROLOGIS.pdfMost of their "analysis" seems to have been taken directly from the website of an American University, much of the rest is from forecasts that, as it turned out, weren't particularly good.

[bud leon]

FLEXPWR, I don't doubt your observations. I'm very selective about which airlines I travel on in Asia. I don't doubt that there are many risks to quality in many parts of the world right now. What bothers me is that there is no reliable properly analysed evidence of cause in this incident but people have already arrived at a conclusion which clearly reinforces racial and cultural biases. Even referring to the region as the "Far East" sends a culturally biased message.

There is no doubt safety standards in Asia in many industries fall behind the west. That is a recognised development issue. There has to be some recognition that these are developing economies and standards also are developing. There is also no doubt that western safety standards are under increasing pressure. Whether there is a significant regional difference in aviation safety requires more than anecdotal evidence. This region, and aviation generally, are in a period of significant flux.

The statistical reality is that revenue passenger kilometres are increasing almost exponentially at over 5.4 trillion kilometres per year (doubled in ten years) and a lot of that increase is in Asia. Yet global airline crashes continue to fall.

Anecdotally there is equally sufficient information to suggest lapse standards in other countries… a quick look at this forum reveals pilots accomplishing hands free nose first landings into the runway, taxiing a plane to the gate on smoking rims, undershooting runways by 500 metres, landing at the wrong airport, landing on taxi-ways, stalling airbuses, the list could go on. I can't help think there are some cognitive biases at work here. Maybe there is a difference in standards, maybe the difference isn't as big as people imagine.

[silverstrata]

Midland 63:

What always surprises me reading these threads is the amount of disagreement among the pro's about topics which I would have thought were quite basic such as stall recovery.
Most of these guys commenting are wannabee's not pros, and you cannot take C152 experience and apply it to jets. Having said that, there are some pros out there who could do with a 20-hour refresher in a glider or puddle-jumper, because they have forgotten basic stick-and-rudder skills. (Because they are actively discouraged in some airlines - an old debate that has been aired many times here.)

Another problem is that the extremes of the flight envelope are often not explored in the sim, because you are not supposed to be at those extremes. So it would come as a surprise to many, if you did enter those forbidden areas.

An example of this, that few have explored in the sim, is a stall recovery at very low speeds and high power settings, which creates a thrust induced pitch-up (which is why you are supposed to reduce power in the stall). Reducing thrust in the stall is not a puddle-jumper technique, but is a must on jets with under-slung engines.

You will see from this example that even though the captain applied full stick forward very quickly, the pitch rose up to 44 degrees. (This is a real flight, with pax on board.)


http://oi61.tinypic.com/15zpijm.jpg (http://oi61.tinypic.com/15zpijm.jpg)


There was probably a big 'thinks bubble' on the flightdeck, because the aircraft 'should not be doing that'. But it will, and it is a corner of the flight envelope that is rarely explored in training. So I will throw this out there to the pros - how many of you have actually practiced this scenario in the sim? Anyone? Would Air France have taught this in the sim? Or was it all dual autopilot all the way stuff?

The only thing that stopped this aircraft doing a low-level back-flip, was the wing dropping - thus reducing the vertical component of the thrust and allowing the nose to drop. Then, the captain was back in 'normal territory', and was able to recover very professionally in the normal manner.

[bud leon]

"Even referring to the region as the "Far East" sends a culturally biased message".

What the fook are you talking about? From where I live it's always been the Far East. I must go check my school atlas."

Exactly. From where you live. From the centre of the 21st century world point of view it's you who lives in the "Far West", actually. It's a 12th century term that evokes the exotic and culturally separate.

[Metro man]

If an A320 pilot really wants to he can simply switch off flight control computers until the aircraft goes into DIRECT LAW. In this case he would lose all protections.

Why is beyond me as there no advantage in being able to over stress the airframe.

No single computer failure will down grade the control laws it has to be multiple, and often a simple reset will restore normality.

There is a control mode which recognises an upset and will allow manoeuvres necessary to regain control which would normally be prevented.

[mary meagher]

Silverstrata, the very very scary example you have posted of a stall experienced on a real flight with pax on board, is impressive and how. Am I reading it correctly? is it actually rather low in altitude? and was the first response of the pilot to shut down the stall warning noise?
The stick shaker seems a bit late to arrive to get their attention....

This printout of all these happenings should be enough to wake up any airman who flies expecting the computers to do his job. I wonder if the passengers noted anything amiss? and if they were on approach, did ATC have any comments? can we read the report anywhere, please?

[mseyfang]

Most of these guys commenting...

This is a great post with an eye-popping set of graphs, but the bean counters will win every time on issues like this, sad to say. Training costs money and unless there is a strong financial or regulatory incentive to shore up training in areas like this, it just won't happen. The pressure on management is accountability to shareholders, not accountability to the traveling public or the pride that should come from running as responsible and safe operation as one can. So the MBAs in the Executive Offices run their cost-benefit analyses on this kind of stuff and decide it isn't worth the impact to the bottom line. Pilots are not an asset, they are a cost to be mitigated with things like P2F.

[BillS]

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/Summary%20-%20AAR%203-2009%20Boeing%20737-3Q8,%20G-THOF%2006-09.pdf

[one dot right]

Could somebody please explain why airbus
can't fit their aircraft with pitot static probes with
enough 'oomph' so that they don't ice up in a CB when
you really need them to be working?

[DaveReidUK]

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...OF%2006-09.pdf (http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/Summary%20-%20AAR%203-2009%20Boeing%20737-3Q8,%20G-THOF%2006-09.pdf)

And the full (64pp) report here: http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/3-2009%20G-THOF.pdf

[chefrp]

tthey are a cost to be mitigated with things like P2F. Agreed. There is only one way to fight bean-counters, by making their business model unprofitable. :8

You could start with this...

Pilots involved in P2F should not be called professional pilots, because the definition of professional is being paid to do a job (in your profession)..."not paying to do your job"!

During in-flight introductions they should be introduced as such. ie... cadet pilot, amateur pilot, or pilot in training.

I think the PAX have a right to know, and just maybe, just maybe it might raise some eyebrows. Or make some feel uneasy, and choose another airline next time.

[ManaAdaSystem]

About the captains military experience.
It's difficult for western pilots to understand how some air force fighter pilots from some South East Asian countries can leave the service with very limited flying skills.

Speaking in general terms, not saying that was the case with this AirAsia captain.
Any information on his age?

[ozaub]

Bud Leon #1088 and others: ICAO has a handy tool for comparing air safety capabilities of different states at http://www.icao.int/safety/Pages/USOAP-Results.aspx. It’s based on very thorough, independent audits.

Before making sweeping comparisons between Asian and “Western” safety regimes just note that Singapore is one of the few States with a near perfect score and China is almost as good. Malaysia is much on a par with Australia and well above the international norm. Sadly Indonesia lags badly and theirs is very recent audit. So I fly on AirAsia’s Malaysian registered planes but not on those of its associates.

Interestingly AirAsia X Indonesia was due to start direct flights between Melbourne and Bali on 26 December but postponed the service at very short notice. Does anyone know if there were problems with the airline’s technical readiness?

[jimjim1]

@mary meagher

In dangly engined jets at low airspeed, and therefore low aero forces, extreme pitch up with high power has happened many times. Not all were so fortunate as in the example illustrated.

Other events:-

http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/2314.pdf
Report about go arounds

Afriqiyah Airways Flight 771 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afriqiyah_Airways_Flight_771#Accident_description)
power up, pitch excursion, CFIT

AeroUnion Flight 302 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroUnion_Flight_302#Accident)
Can't find much detail.

[chefrp]

Budi Sampurna, a professor at the University of Indonesia and member of the forensic team responsible for identifying bodies from the crash, said one autopsy had already taken place, but he didn’t comment on the cause of death. He also didn’t say how many other autopsies were planned.

via the Wall Street Journal

just to confirm autopsies have been performed

[mseyfang]

Any information on his age?

53 IIRC.

@chefrp I wish it were that simple. The flying public has shown time and time again that it will do anything to save $5. Even if saving that $5 costs them $50 in fees. What you're proposing by implication is an education campaign by pilots that has a steep hill to climb in convincing people that safety is worth a little extra. People will cram themselves into 28 inch pitch seats over a few dollars. If they won't pay a bit extra for their own comfort, the statistical unlikelihood of an accident makes it unlikely that they will pay for an extra safety margin.

[BG47]

PANGKALAN BUN/JAKARTA – Indonesia’s transport ministry will investigate all Indonesia AirAsia flight schedules from Monday as part of a government probe into Flight QZ8501 that went missing almost a week ago.

This comes as the ministry said flight QZ8501 was on an unauthorised flight schedule because the airline was only permitted to fly the Surabaya-Singapore route on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Flight QZ8501 took off last Sunday and the airline had not sought permission to change its schedule prior to the flight.

“We are going to investigate all AirAsia flight schedules,” said Djoko Muratmodjo, acting general-director for air navigation in the transport ministry. “Hopefully we can start on next Monday. We won’t focus on licences, just schedules.”

“It might be possible to revoke AirAsia’s licence in Indonesia,” Muratmodjo added.

The transport ministry suspended AirAsia's Surabaya-Singapore route on Friday. "AirAsia's permit for the route has been frozen because it violated the route permit given," he said.

The airline said it would cooperate fully with the investigation and would not comment on the matter till the investigation is completed.

The ministry said "customers who have booked AirAsia's Surabaya-Singapore tickets should be compensated with other airline tickets as per the existing regulation."

[Silver Pegasus]

Just to second that it seems autopsies are being done, just not on every body. Which is understandable given the circumstances and in some cases pointless.

AirAsia flight QZ8501: Another 12 bodies sent to Surabaya hospital for identification - South-east Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-flight-qz8501-another-12-bodies-sent-surabaya-hospital-ident#sthash.PqBtomCr.dpuf)

Autopsy will be performed on some of the bodies to support an investigation into the crash, Xinhua news agency quoted head of the Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) center Budiono as saying.

"Some of them will be autopsied to find out the cause of the accident," he said at the Police Hospital Bhayangkara in Surabaya, the provincial capital of East Java.

"We will conduct autopsy at least on bodies of the pilot, co-pilot,'' he was quoted as saying.

[Interested Passenger]

Meanwhile, the Indonesian weather agency has said that bad weather was the "biggest factor" behind the crash.

that will save a lot of time on tedious investigations.

[mary meagher]

Thank you, Dave Reid, for that very useful link to the full UK AAIB report on the Boeing 737 stall - a full stall, NOT just the approach to the stall - that took place on approach to Bournemouth on a flight from Faro on 23 Sept. 2007.

As nobody got hurt and it was early in the day at a quiet airport, the details of the incident got lost in the bureaucracy, and only a sharp eyed chap in the back office flagged up the true significance. By that time the airliner and the pilots involved had been flying as usual, for several weeks, without sharing the experience with the authorities....which means the Black Boxes had gone on to other things. However the pilot did talk to the company engineer, who assured him the data had been saved on the OFDM, or operational flight detail mentoring, which was sent to the company by mobile phone. And THAT's how the scary charts and details were saved and then studied by the AAIB.

Quite simply, they didn't monitor the airspeed. The auto throttle had disconnected and the warning light wasn't noticed.

And as Jimjim has posted here, if you intuitively apply FULL power, underslung engines can tip up the aircraft so that the elevator is not so effective. A balance has to be achieved, by using trim, power, AND elevator to recover from a full stall. Airline pilots reading this, please have a good look at that AAIB full report referred to by DaveReid. It was not an Airbus, it was an elderly Boeing. and it was not an Asian Airline, nor overly deferential Asian pilots, they were both British, well trained and fully experienced.

They probably overlooked the inconspicuous warning light on the Boeing panel that the autothrottle had disconnected. With everything hanging down, the engines, the flaps, the spoilers, here goes the STALL STALL STALL noise, and what do you do 800 feet from the runway at a speed of 82 knots? Well, it pitched up 33 degrees, they did very well to go around.

All in a day's work. But what is different about having everything go pearshaped in a Cunimb at 38,000 feet? Should have plenty of time to sort things out, and those who fly in these latitudes are experienced in interesting conditions.

[MrSnuggles]

mary_meagher

the full UK AAIB report on the Boeing 737 stall - a full stall, NOT just the approach to the stall - that took place on approach to Bournemouth on a flight from Faro on 23 Sept. 2007.

An eerily similar event took place by Iceland Air in Oslo, Norway, a few years ago. They came in for landing and messed up big time. Many passengers had brown pants... Capt didn't report it as he should have, it was only by reading out the FDR due to some other trouble that the incident was discovered (as I recall it...). I have the report on my computer somewhere but can't seem to find it right now on the Internet. You can look for it here:

Avgitte rapporter - luftfart | sht (http://www.aibn.no/Luftfart/Avgitte-rapporter)

[Sop_Monkey]

From one Monkey to another.

" Is there anyone on this thread who actually wants to discuss about AIR ASIA QZ 8501??"

My gut tells me we are. I hope I am wrong but time will tell.

[fireflybob]

Coincidentally a very interesting discussion on BBC R4 this morning from the author of "The Glass Cage" concerning man's interaction with automation - listen to the end to hear quite a lot about aviation.

Here is the link - start listening at 1.20.55:-

The Glass Cage (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04wnkcs)

[ChrisGr31]

Presumably the reports that they had no authority to fly that route are just a red herring, or is there a suggestion that as the paperwork for the flight schedule is not correct there may be other issues with paperwork?

Equally how did the Indonesians allow the flight to be booked, and depart etc as after they must have known it was happening.

[Hogger60]

Looks like they are getting close to the main wreckage field

Indonesian officials said Saturday that they were confident wreckage of AirAsia Flight 8501 had been located after sonar equipment detected four massive objects on the ocean floor.

The biggest piece, measuring 18 meters (59 feet) long and 5.4 meters (18 feet) wide, appeared to be part of the jet's body,
“I can confirm that these are parts of the plane we are looking for,” said Bambang Soelistyo, head of Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency.

Search teams again battled high waves and struggled to lower a remotely operated underwater vehicle to capture clearer images of the objects on the sea floor at a depth of about 100 feet.

[BG47]

Fox News reports:

"So AirAsia has committed a violation of the route that has been given to them," Barata told The Wall Street Journal. He said the company's flights from Surabaya, Indonesia's second largest city, to Singapore had consequently been suspended on Friday.

AirAsia used to have permission to fly the route daily, but the number of slots was cut for the period Oct. 26 to March 28 because the country was nearing its quota for flying people to Singapore, said Indonesia’s acting director general of aviation Djoko Murjatmodjo. He didn’t say if other airlines also had their slots reduced.

Murjatmodjo added that AirAsia had been flying the route on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays rather than the four days designated by the Transportation Ministry. He said the ministry is investigating why AirAsia was flying the route outside its permitted schedule. The probe will include an investigation of the ministry.

"Frankly speaking, it's a bit late for us to find out about this," he said. "One thing that's certain is the days that they are flying aren't the same as the days they were given. There was no request for changes."

[fireflybob]

Presumably the reports that they had no authority to fly that route are just a red herring, or is there a suggestion that as the paperwork for the flight schedule is not correct there may be other issues with paperwork?


Sounds a bit political to me more than regulatory.

[glendalegoon]

AGAIN, any airbus guys ...CAN THE PLANE JUST HOLD PITCH AND WINGS LEVEL BASED ONLY ON GYRO AND NOT WITH AIRSPEED OR ALTIMETER INPUTS?

and

underslung engines...well a long time ago most of us realized that if you add power the nose goes up

so, throttles forward, stick forward and everything is dandy

[DrPhillipa]

Greenwich is in the centre.

That is Greenwich, London UK, not Greenwich Utah or Greenwich King Edward Island etc.

[Msunduzi]

AGAIN, any airbus guys ...CAN THE PLANE JUST HOLD PITCH AND WINGS LEVEL BASED ONLY ON GYRO AND NOT WITH AIRSPEED OR ALTIMETER INPUTS?

and

underslung engines...well a long time ago most of us realized that if you add power the nose goes up

so, throttles forward, stick forward and everything is dandy

How?

Thrust will lift the nose, and the elevators don't have enough effect (due to low airspeed) to correct.

Not so dandy.

[Capetonian]

AirAsia Flight 8501 did not have permission to fly to Singapore on the day it crashed into the Java Sea, transport officials have said ...................

However, the company was only authorised to fly that route on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, Indonesia’s transport ministry said.

"It violated the route permit given, the schedule given, that's the problem," Djoko Murjatmodjo, the head of air transport, told AFP on Saturday.

It was not immediately clear why AirAsia had been flying that day if it did not have permission. All the company’s flights from Surabaya to Singapore have now been ordered to stop. The transport ministry has announced a full review of all AirAsia flights.

Presumably a flight plan was filed so I do wonder how the (supposed) breach of operating permit can be deemed as 'the problem'.

[GarageYears]

Is there any chance this thread could stay on topic, i.e. AirAsia 8501?

At this point for every one post about 8501, there are 20 posts about other flights, that are supposed, through some assumed causal relation to 8501, but mostly that link is simply "they crashed"....

There is some news from the search teams, there is some wreckage being recovered, so why aren't the clues that this information that is available being discussed?

One thing we can rule out is the aircraft landed intact on the ocean surface as some of the more radical news outlets tried to propose. I say this based on the wreckage we have seen pictures of and the number of bodies.

However, can we rule out some level of in-flight breakup at this point? I feel not, however if there is any evidence to the contrary let's discuss.

But all this talk of other aircraft loses seems at best a waste of bandwidth. We have no idea which, if any of these, are related. I suspect we can only start down that path when the FDR/CVR data is available. :rolleyes:

[training wheels]

Presumably a flight plan was filed so I do wonder how the (supposed) breach of operating permit can be deemed as 'the problem'.

Funny enough, the CAAS from Singapore reported (http://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore-says-airasia-qz8501-flight-schedule-was-approved) that Air Asia had approval from them to operate daily. This is quite typical of Indonesian bureaucracy to focus on petty things such as this to distract the world away from the bigger issues. It has been reported that the new Minister for Transport Ignasius Jonan stormed in to the headquarters of Indonesia Air Asia yelling and screaming at flight operations staff demanding why the Air Asia flight could have departed without receiving a weather briefing from the briefing office.

The simple answer was probably, that early in the morning, none of his briefing officers were ready for duty. I've operated from Surabaya for 4 years often doing the early morning red eye from Surabaya to Bali with a 0600 departure. We call Juanda ground at 0550 for ATC clearance and push back and often there is no answer because the airport doesn't officially open until 0600. If you take off before 0600, then there is a 2 million rupiah fine and some carriers like Air Asia and Citilink seem to be happy to pay the fine so that they can maintain their schedules.

Because of this, our dispatchers and most other airlines also too, obtained weather information from the Bureau of Meterology through their online service, when the Briefing office was 'unavailable'. And according to this article (http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2015/01/03/19542421/Kemenhub.Briefing.Tatap.Muka.Belum.Diwajibkan), the Indonesian DGCA does not have a problem with that, which pretty much puts egg on the face of the Minister for Transport.

[Greenlights]

Coincidentally a very interesting discussion on BBC R4 this morning from the author of "The Glass Cage" concerning man's interaction with automation - listen to the end to hear quite a lot about aviation.

Here is the link - start listening at 1.20.55:-

The Glass Cage

Interesting indeed.
I saw this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt8ooCms4sE

and you clearly understand why planes goes down once the automation fails.

[SKS777FLYER]

Garage Years : Quote
"Is there any chance this thread could stay on topic, i.e. AirAsia 8501?
At this point for every one post about 8501, there are 20 posts about other flights, that are supposed, through some assumed causal relation to 8501, but mostly that link is simply "they crashed"....
There is some news from the search teams, there is some wreckage being recovered, so why aren't the clues that this information that is available being discussed?
One thing we can rule out is the aircraft landed intact on the ocean surface as some of the more radical news outlets tried to propose. I say this based on the wreckage we have seen pictures of and the number of bodies.
However, can we rule out some level of in-flight breakup at this point? I feel not, however if there is any evidence to the contrary let's discuss.
But all this talk of other aircraft loses seems at best a waste of bandwidth. We have no idea which, if any of these, are related. I suspect we can only start down that path when the FDR/CVR data is available. "
- GY
......So, are you prohibited to posting links to the news and clues you referenced?:oh:

[training wheels]

Looks like the Indonesian authorities are having trouble locating the family of the first officer to request DNA from them for identification. This article suggests that his family is from the Caribbean islands (http://www.sayangsabah.com/qz8501-polis-indonesia-interpol-kerjasama-cari-keluarga-co-pilot/) but they no longer reside there, thus the authorities requesting the help of Interpol to locate them.

[valvanuz]

His mother has been on French TV a couple of times already. Some people knew where to find her...

[Irate Alien]

I've seen a couple of posts on here about cultural issues, and I thought I'd inject some thoughts. I'm a strategic communications professional with over 10 years experience in crisis communications, speak Japanese and Indonesian (both pretty badly these days, sadly), and have worked in both countries, as well as a bunch of other places.

I would request that we please stop using the term "Asia." Both my undergrad and grad degrees are from academic departments calling themselves "Asian Studies," but on the first day in each, we were told that "Asia refers to a land mass if you're not too hung up about accuracy," and nothing else. If you say "Asian" to someone in the US, they likely will think of China/Japan/Korea, if you say "Asian" to someone in the UK, they likely will think of India or Pakistan. Indonesia is as different from either of those as it is from Iowa.

The cultural aspect of this investigation is going to be really complex, because it involves: a Javanese pilot with military and civilian experience, a French pilot with civilian piloting and corporate experience, probably Javanese ATC--all of whom were operating in a third language: English. And, the pilots were further influenced by whatever corporate culture exists at Air Asia. So that's what, at least seven cultures interacting? There is some evidence that just the use of the foreign language can actually make one behave in a way that's less culturally native.

So my thoughts on how to do the socio-cultural analysis of this: 1) wait until the cockpit voice recorder is recovered so we can do content analysis of the interaction between the captain, first officer, and ATC; 2) wait until interviews are done of people who knew the pilot and first officer and knew something about how they worked together; 3) stop using the term "Asian" to describe the relevant culture here. Communication during the flight could be relevant to figuring out what went wrong: discussion between the pilots about the weather, their plans on how to deal with it, their communication as stress levels soared during the final few minutes.

Sorry for this long post on something that ultimately probably will be a bit tangential to the investigation, but I've spent my career battling bad decisions based on poorly-informed stereotypes of socio-cultural norms in "Asia." :ugh:


***speculation*** Having said that, I'll now deal a couple of stereotypes about Javanese: many people expect "Asians" to have a hierarchical culture because they carry stereotypes of NE Asia (China, Japan, Korea) when they refer to "Asia." But, Javanese tend (tend!) to be far more consensus-driven than hierarchical. They tend to like to discuss issues at length, usually asking the other side what they think first, and only then offering their view of the facts. They often will say what they think you want to hear before making requests (that really are requirements or orders), and then verbally, at least, end in ambiguity. This takes place in the context of respect (different from deference) for elders. That, of course, might go straight down the tubes when dealing with an experienced military officer sitting in what he might have thought of as his "home turf"--the cockpit.

Finally, having read this forum and the one about MH370 with great interest, I think my next lunchtime hobby should be a socio-cultural study of the pilots and engineers on this forum. :)

[peekay4]

Sister too:

AirAsia QZ8501: Co-pilot Remi Plesel's sister pays tribute to 'excellent' pilot, says he dreamed of flying - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-30/airasia-co-pilot-dreamed-of-flying-sister-says/5992284)

I think they're looking for help in getting DNA / dental data for identification, not in physically locating the family.

[ATC Watcher]

Total BS :The mother of the FO was interviewed on French TV a couple of times . and he was very well known in the French Caribbean islands for helping young locals to become pilots .

[FrequentSLF]

Being a SLF, for the past 20 years in Asia...

I would not trust anything that is coming out of Indonesian Authorities....

[Mad (Flt) Scientist]

Could somebody please explain why airbus
can't fit their aircraft with pitot static probes with
enough 'oomph' so that they don't ice up in a CB when
you really need them to be working?

OK, I'll have a go at this one.

(It's not really (just) Airbus's problem, since it's the probe manufacturer that qualifies the probe, not the OEM, but the OEM does end up holding the bag at some point)

They can't just add more oomph because the nature of the problem is different (assuming we're talking about ice crystal contamination and not classical inflight icing) - just making the probes hotter doesn't help, as the part affected isn't protected at all. And we still don't really understand the whole phenomenon, though people do know a lot more now than 5 or ten years ago. It's hard to design against a vaguely-defined threat. I'm not even sure there were test facilities that could reproduce the conditions until quite recently.

In fact, IIRC, Airbus had an internal probe spec which was somewhat more severe than the industry minimum Part 25 Appendix C, but that has proven to not be enough in some cases.

[peekay4]

Four large parts of missing jet found off Borneo coast

AirAsia QZ8501: Four large parts of missing jet found off Borneo coast, search for bodies continues (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-04/four-large-parts-of-airasia-jet-qz8501-found-authorities-say/5998888)

Recovery teams found two big parts of the AirAsia plane in the Java Sea off the island of Borneo late on Friday night.

Mr Soelistyo said another two sections, the largest of which was around 18 metres long, were located on Saturday.

Another official, Supriyadi, who is coordinating the operation from the port of Pangkalan Bun in Borneo, said earlier that
poor visibility had hampered efforts to capture images of the objects with underwater remote operating vehicles (ROVs).

"The visibility is only two metres," he said. "It's cloudy, making it difficult for the cameras to detect."

To add: I believe the A320 is only 40m long, so if the 18m part they found is part of the fuselage (unclear from the report) then that's a large section of the aircraft.

[aa73]

Regarding AAMP and AA training with the rudder years ago, mentioned in a post a few pages back:

In AA587 the FO was using the rudder only when full aileron was not arresting the bank, contrary to what some may believe. He didn't automatically just bang the rudder to stop the turn.

As many of you well know, Airbus (thanks to the NTSB making sure an aircraft manufacturer didn't get blamed) dodged a huge bullet by not being assigned the blame in this crash due to a highly sensitive and somewhat primitive rudder limiter that was never properly explained to its A300 customers. In effect, the FO of 587 was dealing with a monster that nobody quite knew about. Little did he (or anyone, at the time) know that only 2 inches or so of rudder travel at 240kts was resulting in full rudder deflection.

So, the timeline goes somewhat like this: first wake turbulence encounter, severe roll. Full opposite aileron, no effect. Opposite Rudder comes in with around 2 inches of pedal, bang, full rudder deflection. Severe roll in opposite direction. Full opposite aileron, no effect. 2 inches opposite rudder pedal, bang, full opposite rudder deflection. Another roll reversal. Rinse and repeat, tail comes off due to the rapid (unintentional) rudder reversals.

As you can see, 1) the FO was only applying rudder pressure when full opposite aileron was not helping, and 2) he did not know that only around 2 inches of rudder pedal pressure was deploying full rudder deflection. This is the fact that Airbus did not explain to its customers regarding its antiquated rudder limiter on the A300-600 series, and the NTSB and political pressure made darn sure airbus did not get blamed for this tragedy.

Any pilot on this forum (or in the world) would have reacted just as FO Sten Molin did that day. Uncontrollable bank and full aileron doesn't arrest it? Start bringing in the rudder. We would have had no idea as to the monster we'd be dealing with regarding the A300 rudder limiter. Neither did he.

The AAMP program provided a very convenient vehicle for the NTSB to help in assigning blame to the flight crew. I'd like to point out, however, having gone through the AAMP program, that the instructors (and program) always emphasized that you only used rudder when the ailerons aren't being effective in arresting the roll rate. There was NEVER any talk about strictly using the rudders without ailerons, nor using the rudder aggressively.

My point in this post is twofold: 1) tell the facts as they were, and 2) realize that the NTSB has a political agenda just like any government agency and sometimes needs to protect certain parties when bigger things are at stake. The aa587 NTSB report is a perfect example: it conveniently circumvents the real issues at stake (the A300 rudder limiter) and uses a training program to help assign blame to the flight crew, all in order to protect Airbus.

[k3k3]

Type1106

Anything with a heating element in it can fail, whether it be a valve in an ancient TV or a pitot probe. When I was involved in that sort of thing we used to replace them more often than I wanted (Boeing aircraft).

[Axel-Flo]

Absolutely yes, failed components are an operating hazard.....but really something as simple albeit important (and I choose not to use the word critical, only because it shouldn't be a critical loss) should not result in the circumstances being guessed at here and likened to the AF loss? If they are so critical then duplicity and triple redundancy should without doubt be the next step......

If it's just loss of formerly selective radial scanned info does Power, Attitude and Trim not give you time or at least something to hang your hat on while you diagnose?

[Sop_Monkey]

The wings can be "unloaded" to the extent the aircraft would be still under control, albeit with zero G, as in a hyperbolic maneuver. I have been in aircraft flown and still be under control at well below the published stall speed.

[marchino61]

Looks like the airline failed to grease the right palms....

Now I'd imagine Air Asia Indonesia will be firing their fixer...er, sorry....I mean "government liaison officer" ;-)

[enola-gay]

The distinguishing feature of this recovery operation is the dignity which the Indonesian armed forces and police are showing to the victims and to the world.

Everyone involved is dressed immaculately in starched and pressed uniform, polished boots, body bags handled swiftly with humility, lines of guards of honour saluting makeshift coffins. There are traditional floral tributes on every coffin even though the occupant is only a number.

This is humanity and respect for fellow man at its very best in a country which has had more than its share of ethnic conflict over the last 20 years. Most of the victims are ethnic Chinese, and many are Christians. The recovery teams seem to be mostly ethnic Indo-Malay folk who are probably Muslims.

I am full of admiration for this respect, when compared with the contempt shown by so-called Europeans in the East of Ukraine for the victims of MH 17, many of whom were left to rot in turnip fields and only slung into a refrigerated rail truck by unkempt militia after days of doing nothing.

[avfactor]

I feel everybody is missing the point and picking the flys..t out of the pepper debating aerodynamical points which although have some relevance but are avoiding the cardinal issue - do not fly into thunder storms, they bite hard and what has happened to good airmanship and pilot judgement, do a 180 and return to where there are no red bits on the screen. For heavens sake when are we pilots going to say that the VIP's on board are ourselves and to hell with the bean counters and the rest of the jam stealers in our industry who appear in the media crying crocodile tears for the innocent victims of this tragedy. The reality is profit overrides safety every time and I defy any airline exec to deny this. And as for the flying public if you choose to save a miserable couple of dollars and travel with a dodgy carrier you will get what you deserve. There is no price on safety and professional crew.

[Nieuport28]

AA73 [QUOTE]My point in this post is twofold: 1) tell the facts as they were, and 2) realize that the NTSB has a political agenda just like any government agency and sometimes needs to protect certain parties when bigger things are at stake. The aa587 NTSB report is a perfect example: it conveniently circumvents the real issues at stake (the A300 rudder limiter) and uses a training program to help assign blame to the flight crew, all in order to protect Airbus./QUOTE]

While I agree completely with your opinion, the QZ 322 was not a 300-6.
One would assume a completely different design on the 332's Limiter, no?

Are you saying there is no difference in the functioning in either airframe?

[jimjim1]

Someone (lost in the mists of internet time:-) mentioned this author earlier:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt8ooCms4sE
Nicholas Carr, "The Glass Cage: Automation and Us"
Talks at Google
55m

[BG47]

Enola-gay stated: "The distinguishing feature of this recovery operation is the dignity which the Indonesian armed forces and police are showing to the victims and to the world.

Everyone involved is dressed immaculately in starched and pressed uniform, polished boots, body bags handled swiftly with humility, lines of guards of honour saluting makeshift coffins. There are traditional floral tributes on every coffin even though the occupant is only a number.

This is humanity and respect for fellow man at its very best in a country which has had more than its share of ethnic conflict over the last 20 years. Most of the victims are ethnic Chinese, and many are Christians. The recovery teams seem to be mostly ethnic Indo-Malay folk who are probably Muslims.

I am full of admiration for this respect, when compared with the contempt shown by so-called Europeans in the East of Ukraine for the victims of MH 17, many of whom were left to rot in turnip fields and only slung into a refrigerated rail truck by unkempt militia after days of doing nothing."


I have been thinking the very same thing. Not an easy mental & emotional task to do but they have done a very respectful duty hopefully they too will find peace once all the victims are back with their families.

[Propduffer]

@marchino61 (http://www.pprune.org/members/213351-marchino61)

My thoughts exactly

[beamender99]

A Russian search team, including 22 deep water divers and a remotely operated submersible vessel, is expected to join the hunt for the black boxes after arriving in Pangkalan Bun on Saturday.

Russian search teams arrived aboard a Beriev Be-200 amphibious aircraft

BBC News - AirAsia QZ8501: Plane crash blamed on weather (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30665499)

[jehrler]

@mseyfang

I wish it were that simple. The flying public has shown time and time again that it will do anything to save $5. Even if saving that $5 costs them $50 in fees. What you're proposing by implication is an education campaign by pilots that has a steep hill to climb in convincing people that safety is worth a little extra. People will cram themselves into 28 inch pitch seats over a few dollars. If they won't pay a bit extra for their own comfort, the statistical unlikelihood of an accident makes it unlikely that they will pay for an extra safety margin.

While there may be some truth in this, the U.S. automakers long argued that the public wouldn't pay for safety (airbags in particular). Volvo and both government and insurance crash tests have put the lie to that position. There has been a marked industry wide effort to score well on these tests. In other words, presented with good information on safety consumers DID respond and, as a result, so did the auto makers.

I am of the opinion that, at least in the west, the presumption is that there are qualified crews due to regulation and fear of liability. And this presumption in the mind of most western passengers extends to most parts of the world, particularly when they see shiny new planes.

How many passengers are aware of the flight bans into the EU and US on a surprisingly large number of this new Asian low cost carriers.

I think western passengers would be surprised and would think twice if this info was widely disseminated.

[Mark in CA]

Interesting quote in an AP report entitled "AirAsia flight has parallels with 2009 ocean crash":

David Greenberg, a former Delta Air Lines executive who was hired at Korean Air to oversee pilot training and safety, said aircraft manufacturers, airlines and the FAA embraced the idea that automation could make flying safer, but more recently began to worry about the times when automation can't carry the day.

"The focus started to shift back to being capable of using the automation as an assist to reduce workload in the right circumstance, but being capable also of taking over and flying the old way," Greenberg said.

"In Asia, it's very normal to rely, in my view, excessively on automation," he said, "partly because the manufacturers stress that the airplanes are easy to learn and easy to train on and very safe because the automation narrows the gap between skill and required skill."

That last phrase gives me the chills.

[HarryMann]

That last phrase gives me the chills.


me too esp. after listening to that excellent Google sponsored
talk on 'Automation' that fireflybob kindly posted...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04wnkcs

[LCYslicker]

I know that this is a rumour network, but can one of the very few facts relevant here be made clear, BG47 and Jehrler?
62 Indonesian airlines are indeed banned from the EU airspace due to the failure of local regulatory oversight.
But 5 are approved. Presumably, that means that the EU finds their internal processes make up for the regulator's weakness.
And guess what? Indonesia Air Asia is one of those few Indonesian airlines approved by the European Union to fly to the EU if it chooses, along with Garuda (which does).
Because it meets EU standards.
Fact. Not rumour.
The links proving this are very early on in this thread, if our posters had read them rather than just smearing all low-cost airlines.

[Leightman 957]

I don't buy the protests that this thread has gone over the waterfall OT. If I shoehorn my size 38 keester into a size 31 seat and know from the getgo that if I lean my torso forward to brace for an indelicate flight conclusion that I'm more likely to break my neck than survive, I should not have to also worry that the person at the controls got there because his bank account or line of credit or papa's ego was bigger than the guy or girl with hands on ability and and not just knob experience. Accidents that hitherto may not have been regarded as related in cause are not out of bounds. We damned well better be learning from mistakes. Automation is very much on trial here, just as in any accident investigation, because automation is just another tool, and one that future hindsight may prove, like many tools before, to have been contributory to the outcome. It is increasingly clear that if automation gets to the point where it confronts a pilot with a choice between opposite actions, neither being particularly intuitive, to be determined in a matter of seconds by the pilot's best guess as to what the computer is thinking and where it may have erred, then you do have an automation/human interface problem. Even a hesitation at that point is contributory.


Someone wrote that automation has saved more lives than it has cost. The problem with that blanket approval is that many “advances” lengthen the cognitive decision chain when time is something one just doesn't have any more of.

[peekay4]

Early in a standard investigation, investigators will want to find the "four corners" of the plane (nose, tail, left wing tip, right wing tip). These four specific objects must be found or otherwise accounted for.

Once we have the "four corners", then from their positions with respect to other debris and with respect to each other, an initial determination can be made to see whether the accident:

- Occurred at high speed or low speed
- Occurred at high angle or low angle
- Occurred with significant rotation (indicative of a stall/spin)
- Involved an in-flight breakup

And from there then an analysis can move forward.

But before we can answer those basic questions above, the possibilities are just endless. I.e., we have no real idea of what happened.

So far for QZ8501 we don't know the location and/or condition of any of the "four corners".

[Simplythebeast]

According to BBC News the Indonesian Weather Agency are blaming the bad weather for the accident stating..."These icy conditions can stall the engines of the plane and freeze and damage the planes machinery."
That'll be it then.

[Smott999]

They've mentioned they think they have part of the tail....
Any word on BB or even pingers heard?

[david1300]

The distinguishing feature of this recovery operation is the dignity which the Indonesian armed forces and police are showing to the victims and to the world.

Everyone involved is dressed immaculately in starched and pressed uniform, polished boots, body bags handled swiftly with humility, lines of guards of honour saluting makeshift coffins. There are traditional floral tributes on every coffin even though the occupant is only a number.

This is humanity and respect for fellow man at its very best in a country which has had more than its share of ethnic conflict over the last 20 years. Most of the victims are ethnic Chinese, and many are Christians. The recovery teams seem to be mostly ethnic Indo-Malay folk who are probably Muslims.

I am full of admiration for this respect, when compared with the contempt shown by so-called Europeans in the East of Ukraine for the victims of MH 17, many of whom were left to rot in turnip fields and only slung into a refrigerated rail truck by unkempt militia after days of doing nothing.

Very well said, and I agree most strongly with your closing paragraph.

[jehrler]

@LCYslicker

I was not attempting to impune Air Asia or its pilot in this incident, I was just pointing out that there *are* concerns over safety in some of these carriers and that this has resulted in EU bans. There are plenty of incidents in non-banned carriers.

Rather, I was making the point that assumptions about adequate regulation and training are common among the lay passenger in the west. Therefore it is not surprising that there is a focus on fares/fees rather than safety as safety is a "given". Contra the OP, it doesn't mean these passengers don't care, it means they do not have the general knowledge or capability to understand the choices. Kind of like car buyers before crash tests began rating the survivability of various crashes.

[p.j.m]

-3.9241948673 110.5252477224
so pretty much where the original debris was found, and 180° in direction and 100 klms from where the last reported location/heading was

http://i.imgur.com/zThKKH2.jpg

AirAsia Flight QZ8501: Four massive objects found in sea thought to be lost jet (http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/four-massive-objects-found-on-sea-bed-thought-to-be-lost-airasia-jets-fuselage/story-fnizu68q-1227173834505)

[Machinbird]

I have read virtually the entire thread and there is much interesting comment. I would like to offer some structure to what we know followed by personal speculation that you are free to discount.

What I believe we know :
The aircraft was in cruise and encountered weather associated with the ITCZ.
The crew requested a heading change and a higher altitude. The Heading change was approved.
Shortly afterwards, ATC attempted to contact the crew with a higher altitude assignment but was unable to contact.
The aircraft was observed on ATC radars to both climb and to decelerate (GS) significantly before descending rapidly.
The aircraft wreckage has been found near the last known position.
The wreckage is in relatively large pieces and the bodies of victims are essentially intact.
The Captain was high time and had prior F-16 experience.
The first officer had more than 2000 hours.

There are 5 ways to crash near the LKP from cruise. From the above data, we can eliminate two of these and the third is now improbable. (I am not considering deliberate acts to crash an aircraft.)

1. An out of control dive. (Discount due to low velocity impact.)
2. A stall maintained down to the surface such as happened to AF447.
3. A stall leading to a spin down to the surface.
4. Inflight breakup. (Improbable due to the relatively low fuselage impact velocity).
5. Glide down from altitude with dead engines. (Discounted for a number of reasons, primarily because the aircraft crashed so close to LKP & conflicts with information from ATC radar.)

Speculation:
That the aircraft became stalled and either mushed or spun down to the surface.
The mush scenario is less likely due to the wide dissemination of the AF447 event.
Possible cause of a stall:
Weather related activation of high speed protection, pitching the aircraft up sharply, followed by either the crew putting the aircraft into Alternate law to regain control or activation of Abnormal Alternate Law and then stalling/departing the aircraft due to a high nose attitude and turbulence.

Expectation:
The Flight Data Recorders will be recovered in short order and should be readable. Hopefully the pingers are still bolted to the recorders and are functioning. With the weather in the crash area, there is a fair possibility of drifting sand on the bottom obscuring smaller crash debris.
We will learn in short order what happened. The why is going to provide much interesting discussion I suspect.

[WanganuiLad]

Could this have any bearing on the cause of the accident?


or... you could have just read the thread :ugh:

[einhverfr]

Now I'd imagine Air Asia Indonesia will be firing their fixer...er, sorry....I mean "government liaison officer" ;-)

My experience in Indonesia btw is that bribery and police extortion are entirely accepted if they protect the poor from the rich but highly prosecuted if it goes the other way. These are effectively mechanisms of collective social control ad not primarily by elites. In essence it is easy for Westerners to cry "corruption" and assume that the systme isn't working.

My reading is different. I think this is a demand by Indonesian regulators for a lot more money as punishment for losing the plane.

[Propduffer]

Thanks for the graphic p.j.m.

This is very interesting information, it gives the location for these big pieces as: 3.9241948672 s 110.5252477224 e

which is very close to where the bodies and debris has been said to have been found - and which is 70 miles SE of the first given last known position: (3°22'1.58"S 109°41'28"E)

or 60 miles SE of a "corrected last known position" given at GeorgeHatcher.com (3°36'31.0"S 109°41'46.0"E)

[bud leon]

Bud Leon #1088 and others: ICAO has a handy tool for comparing air safety capabilities of different states at Safety Audit Information (http://www.icao.int/safety/Pages/USOAP-Results.aspx). It’s based on very thorough, independent audits.

Before making sweeping comparisons between Asian and “Western” safety regimes just note that Singapore is one of the few States with a near perfect score and China is almost as good. Malaysia is much on a par with Australia and well above the international norm. Sadly Indonesia lags badly and theirs is very recent audit. So I fly on AirAsia’s Malaysian registered planes but not on those of its associates.

Interestingly AirAsia X Indonesia was due to start direct flights between Melbourne and Bali on 26 December but postponed the service at very short notice. Does anyone know if there were problems with the airline’s technical readiness?

osaub, as the tool explains the audit is of a country's oversight not an individual airline's safety performance. I'm not in the least bit surprised Indonesia gets this kind of score. If you read my post in its entirety you will see I make the point about a country's developmental progress. Indonesian systems do lag those of many other countries particularly with respect to corruption.

While good regulation is preferential, poor regulation does not necessarily mean an individual operator does not have good safety standards. On that basis, you would then argue that the only reason particular airlines have strong safety systems is strong regulation. It's always more complicated than that.

I agree with you about the mistake of making sweeping statements, that is my general point. It's also a point made well by Irate Alien.

I'm not arguing that regional factors are not relevant, I'm arguing let's not presume they are relevant.

[training wheels]

Regarding Air Safety Audits, the only Indonesian airline to have IOSA accreditation (http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/safety/audit/iosa/Pages/registry.aspx) is Garuda. Surprisingly, Air Asia does not appear on the list despite being approved to operate in the EU.

[cj8124]

My experience in Indonesia btw is that bribery and police extortion are entirely accepted if they protect the poor from the rich but highly prosecuted if it goes the other way. These are effectively mechanisms of collective social control ad not primarily by elites. In essence it is easy for Westerners to cry "corruption" and assume that the systme isn't working.

My reading is different. I think this is a demand by Indonesian regulators for a lot more money as punishment for losing the plane.

I would disagree with you, if you thought this is a form of punishment from the regulators for a lot more money. AirAsia just f*cked up, and fly without a route permit. Its just plainly wrong. AirAsia doesnt follow the rules.

Ever since our new president, Jokowi has been in office, he has been trying very hard to repair the system with each and everyone in the government to become more professional. The simple truth might be, they (transportation minister) have just known that AirAsia does these kind of practice. Changing schedules without asking permit to the authorities.

AirAsia has just endangered all their passengers on the doomed flight.

1. Insurance Coverage would be denied. I took this paragraph from the AirAsia Insurance.

Commercial flights scheduled by AirAsia Berhad, it being always understood that by AirAsia Berhad has at all times the requisite and valid licences or similar authorisations for scheduled air transportation and landing rights for fare paying passengers as issued by the relevant authorities in the country in which it operates, and that in accordance with such authorisation, maintain and publish schedules and tariffs for passenger service between named airports. In addition, departure times, transfers and destination points shall be established by reference to the Insured
Person’s Scheduled Flight ticket.

Since it does not have the appropriate authorisations (i.e. Route permit) than the insurance company can decline to pay.

2. There are regulations about preflight weather briefing that each and every pilot has to take before they fly. But AirAsia doesn't do that. They expect their pilots to download the weather forecast them self and print it out them self. Its just plainly wrong to break every rules that we have, in the name of cost efficiency.

[B772]

There is an interesting development with huge legal and financial ramifications for Air Asia - Indonesia in the loss of the Air Asia A320.

Air Asia - Indonesia did not have legal flight approval for the flight that has been lost. They were not authorised to fly SUB - SIN that day.

The reasons are not 100% clear at this stage but Air Asia - Indonesia are no longer flying the SUB - SIN route.

Having some knowledge of the Indonesian system I suspect there is a flurry of paperwork behind the scene with many documents and approvals being backdated by the DGCA. (All being done with God's approval)

If there had been Americans, Japanese or Australians on board there would have been a lawyers picnic in the making.

Ps. Air Asia Indonesia is 49% owned by Air Asia and 51% by the former
Indonesian carrier Air Wagon International. The name Abd Wahid (Gus Dur) may be familiar to some old timers.

[p.j.m]

There is an interesting development with huge legal and financial ramifications for Air Asia - Indonesia in the loss of the Air Asia A320.

Air Asia - Indonesia did not have legal flight approval for the flight that has been lost. They were not authorised to fly SUB - SIN that day

Little more than a beatup by some petty Indonesian official.

AirAsia Didn?t Have Permission to Fly Route on Day of Crash, Indonesia Says - WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/airasia-didnt-have-permission-to-fly-route-on-day-of-crash-indonesia-says-1420261574)

AirAsia used to have permission to fly the route daily, but the number of slots was cut for the period Oct. 26 to March 28 because the country was nearing its quota for flying people to SingaporeTransport Ministry spokesman J.A. Barata said the airline was only permitted to fly the route on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and SaturdaysMr. Murjatmodjo added that AirAsia had been flying the route on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays rather than the four days designated by the Transportation Ministry

[BG47]

Before take-off, the pilot of Flight 8501 had asked for permission to fly at a higher altitude to avoid the storm, but the request was not approved due to other planes above him on the popular route, according to AirNav, Indonesia’s air traffic control.

[onetrack]

This particular area of water contains vast amounts of WW2 wreckage and debris from numerous engagements, both air and sea.
That debris comprises large chunks of metal such as torpedoes, large shells, sea mines, and sizeable parts lost from ships that weren't sunk, but only badly damaged.

The Battle of the Java sea over 26-28th February 1942, was a huge battle between Japanese, American, Australian, British and Dutch warships that resulted in the loss of 6 known ships.

Another sea battle between the Japanese and U.S. and British ships on 1st March 1942 saw another 4 ships go to the bottom.
Then there are the numbers of WW2 aircraft losses in the Java Sea, both Japanese and Allied, from numerous dogfights, and just simple accident losses.
Add to that, civil wreckage such as ferries and local shipping lost over numerous decades.

The bottom line is, that this area is a recreational divers paradise, strewn with wreckage. Add in poor visibility in numerous areas caused by storms and strong currents, and you have wreckage search conditions that can best be described as "difficult".

Until a positively-identified section of the QZ8501 flight aircraft can be produced, there will be a large amount of "false alarms" produced in the wreckage search.
The fact that the current items reportedly found - that are immediately being identified as parts of QZ8501 - are listed as being found 100kms from the LRP, seems to me to be a somewhat unlikely location.

http://ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/USN-CN-Java/maps/USN-CN-JavaSea-7.jpg

[BG47]

Hi LcySlicker, I think you should reread my post as I made it clear that the article I sited was "not specific to AirAsia but to the country of Indonesia as a whole”. I also used “low cost airline” in quotes as this is what newspapers articles/TV are stating and it is also AirAsia’s own PR marketing campaign wording.

My only observation with regards to the wording “low cost airline”... does AirAsia push planes out the gate when possibly they should be delayed or cancelled ie due to wx etc. It is very costly for an airline to delay or cancel a flight especially if they do not have additional scheduled flights on the same day like this Sunday AirAsia flight (this sunday flight was the only flight that day for AirAsia).

In this case if a flight is cancelled the airline will still need to move the pax to their destination, there are several options 1) wait till the next scheduled flight and book them on that one. With regards to this Sunday AirAsia flight the pax would have had to wait till Monday or other flights that week, and I am sure the pax would not be too happy and AirAsia could loose a future customer plus if only there are any seats available and/or 2) sell the tickets to another competition airline who had open seats still. With the first case AirAsia could possibly loss out on a walk up customer because now all the seats are filled with the cancelled flight pax. Meaning no additional new revenue from walk up customers or last min bookings = loss of new income. The second option is very expensive as the competition airline buying the tickets can set the price very high (as a walk up price or higher). Airlines do not like to sell their customers tickets to another airline for the addition reason now that customer is exposed to another airline and may possibly purchase further tickets on the rebooked airline instead of say AirAsia.

My original post was more in the direction should this AirAsia flight been cancelled or delayed due to weather. It is fact that this flight was moved up 2 hours from the originally scheduled time...who moved it up and why? was it because the wx was going to be worse as the day progressed (which is fact). Not to mention the ripple effect of that plane delayed and not able to flight the next leg trips.

LcySlicker stated: I know that this is a rumour network, but can one of the very few facts relevant here be made clear, BG47 and Jehrler?
62 Indonesian airlines are indeed banned from the EU airspace due to the failure of local regulatory oversight.
But 5 are approved. Presumably, that means that the EU finds their internal processes make up for the regulator's weakness.
And guess what? Indonesia Air Asia is one of those few Indonesian airlines approved by the European Union to fly to the EU if it chooses, along with Garuda (which does).
Because it meets EU standards.
Fact. Not rumour.
The links proving this are very early on in this thread, if our posters had read them rather than just smearing all low-cost airlines.





My original post: In May according to the NYTimes the United Nations sent auditors to Jakarta, Indonesia to rate the countries aviation safety record...their conclusion Indonesia's safety recorded was “well below...global average in every category...scoring 61 in airworthness”. (note it was not specific to AirAsia but to the country of Indonesia as a whole).

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/01/wo...airline-safety

Another article on the net indicates that the EU bars 62 Indonesian carriers into Europe for safety reasons. This article sites that the biggest issue/concern is proper training with rapidly aviation expansion.

My concerns with this accident is the fact that it is a “Low cost airline” and MAYBE not conclusive the push to get planes in the air vs canceling or delaying a flight as it would disrupt that particular planes day flight legs and the possible loss of revenue/increase cost in revenue that is required to move the pax if a flight is cancelled and the airline needs to sell the seats to another airline to move the pax to their destination.

All accidents are a domino effect as we know and I think the first domino in this case goes back to management wanting to keep airline cost down, then dispatch and obviously the flight crew. There is no discussion on here about dispatch and their role in moving this flight forward by 2 hours...clearly dispatch knew the weather was bad and getting worse...the question is was dispatch pressed to get the fight into the air vs canceling or delaying the flight due to weather. What kind of training and years of experience do AirAsia dispatchers have and how much pressure from management/dispatch in the very early am did the captain of this flight have/feel and/or was he to fatigue to make a proper decision to delay the flight...."

[Ranger One]

p.j.m:

Little more than a beatup by some petty Indonesian official.

Perhaps, but perhaps more than nuisance value too.

If they were technically unauthorised for that flight, that might very well 'technically' invalidate their insurance, might it not...?

[p.j.m]

If they were technically unauthorised for that flight, that might very well 'technically' invalidate their insurance, might it not...?

Seems the authorities were happy to allow it to file a flight plan, and granted it permission to take off on the day.

[chuboy]

I wonder whether the Conventions regarding compensation would be applicable as well, if the flight was not authorised. But I suppose that is the least of Air Asia's concerns.

[bud leon]

osaub to be perfectly honest I usually fly Singapore Airlines and a few other premium carriers. I don't fly on LCCs unless there is no other choice.

[BG47]

Reuters news, By Lawrence White and Arno Schuetze

HONG KONG/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Allianz SE could be exposed to claims of at least $100 million linked to the AirAsia jet missing off the Indonesian coast with 162 people on board, which would be the third major airline accident it has been exposed to this year.

Allianz said on Monday it was lead reinsurer on the flight, having previously been the main reinsurer to Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 which disappeared over the Indian Ocean in March, as well as to flight MH17, shot down in July while flying over Ukraine.

In an emailed statement Allianz confirmed it had lead the provision of aviation hull and liability cover, adding: "It is much too early to comment on reports of this incident ... except to say that our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this missing flight."

One aircraft insurance broker estimated total costs would depend on liabilities for passengers and could be between $100 million and $200 million, including around $45 million for the plane.

Not all the costs would be borne by Allianz but the insurer declined comment on the extent of its exposure, or to identify others exposed to the missing Airbus A320-200.

Aviation incidents accounted for four of the top 10 major insurance losses not linked to natural catastrophes in the first eight months of 2014, putting pressure on aviation claims that are already rising due to the use of expensive materials and demanding safety regulation, an Allianz report said.

As with the two Malaysia Airlines crashes, Allianz and its co-insurers will have to foot the bill for the cost of the missing aircraft, as well as for payments due to the relatives of passengers aboard the flight.

The Airbus 320 sells for an average price of $94 million, according to Airbus's website. However, according to the age of the aircraft, the hull is likely to be insured for a lower sum.

For passenger liability, an international agreement called the Montreal Convention caps initial payouts at around $165,000 per passenger at current exchange rates, or a total of about $27 million for the 162 passengers aboard the AirAsia flight.

But if the airline is found to have been at fault, such as through pilot error, claims could be much higher.

"This is going be identical to MH370 and MH17 in the sense there are standard minimum insurance obligations which all carriers have to have, but if negligence can be demonstrated the sky's the limit in terms of claims," said John Ribbands, an independent Melbourne-based lawyer expert in aviation insurance.

JLT Group was the insurance broker for the AirAsia plane, the company told Reuters in a separate statement.

In a recent aviation safety study, Allianz said there are currently fewer than two passenger deaths for every 100 million passengers on commercial flights, compared with 133 deaths for every 100 million in the 1960s.

Allianz shares were 1.5 percent lower by 7.48 a.m. in a 0.8 percent weaker sector <.SXIP>. One insurance analyst said the accident would not change his view on the stock. "Payouts resulting from a single plane crash are usually manageable and by far less dramatic than a winter storm in Europe or a hurricane in the U.S.," he said.

(Additional reporting by Carolyn Cohn and Simon Jessop in London; Writing by Lisa Jucca; Editing by Michael Perry and David Holmes)

[p.j.m]

some interesting presos...

http://i.imgur.com/LUOwAKD.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/0plIv9H.jpg

[sAx_R54]

FLEXPWR, I don't doubt your observations. I'm very selective about which airlines I travel on in Asia. I don't doubt that there are many risks to quality in many parts of the world right now. What bothers me is that there is no reliable properly analysed evidence of cause in this incident but people have already arrived at a conclusion which clearly reinforces racial and cultural biases. Even referring to the region as the "Far East" sends a culturally biased message.

There is no doubt safety standards in Asia in many industries fall behind the west. That is a recognised development issue. There has to be some recognition that these are developing economies and standards also are developing. There is also no doubt that western safety standards are under increasing pressure. Whether there is a significant regional difference in aviation safety requires more than anecdotal evidence. This region, and aviation generally, are in a period of significant flux.

The statistical reality is that revenue passenger kilometres are increasing almost exponentially at over 5.4 trillion kilometres per year (doubled in ten years) and a lot of that increase is in Asia. Yet global airline crashes continue to fall.

Anecdotally there is equally sufficient information to suggest lapse standards in other countries… a quick look at this forum reveals pilots accomplishing hands free nose first landings into the runway, taxiing a plane to the gate on smoking rims, undershooting runways by 500 metres, landing at the wrong airport, landing on taxi-ways, stalling airbuses, the list could go on. I can't help think there are some cognitive biases at work here. Maybe there is a difference in standards, maybe the difference isn't as big as people imagine.

Cognitive implies some form of intelligence behind such views. These cultural biases emanate from deep within the soul of the xenophobic. They are also irrational and compare little to the sycophantic bilge produced in support of the BA pilot who parked the wing of his 747 in a building in Johannesburg. This major faux pas posed little in terms of perception on those pilots coming from the UK sub continent. Anyway, back to trying to understand the reasons behind this tragic event.

[sAx_R54]

tthey are a cost to be mitigated with things like P2F. Agreed. There is only one way to fight bean-counters, by making their business model unprofitable. :8

You could start with this...

Pilots involved in P2F should not be called professional pilots, because the definition of professional is being paid to do a job (in your profession)..."not paying to do your job"!

During in-flight introductions they should be introduced as such. ie... cadet pilot, amateur pilot, or pilot in training.

I think the PAX have a right to know, and just maybe, just maybe it might raise some eyebrows. Or make some feel uneasy, and choose another airline next time.

A better definition for professionalism is not what you get paid.....it is about how you conduct yourself.

[Fareastdriver]

QZ 8501 took off from Surabaya for Singapore at 05.35 local time. That ment the crew almost certainly reported for duty at 04.30. They had a double so they were scheduled for an eleven hour day. Their natural body clock would not have permitted them to get eight hours sleep before getting up before 04.00hrs.

Once airborne they were now under pressure to get to Singapore and back, twice, without overrunning their duty hours. When approaching a massive build up their first reaction would have been to go around it but then the time penalty would start to register. The desire to stay inside their time bracket would encourage a 'suck it and see' approach and maybe they tried this.

When it became obvious that this was not going to work that is when they asked for a heading and climb.

It was too late.

[Bergerie1]

Irate Alien
I was so pleased to read your post. The cultural arrogance of so many people from Western backgrounds (I generalise - Europeans, N. Americans, Australians, etc.) towards those from Asian, Indonesian, Indo/Pakistan and African peoples is breathtaking. We are blind to the many difference that you describe. There are more cultural differences across the Indian sub-continent than across Europe, we tend to see Chinese people as all the same when there are so many differences between the different parts of China that we just don't see.
One of my pet dislikes at the moment is the way 'the West' demonises all Muslims as possible terrorists when clearly the vast majority of Muslims are as horrified as we are at what is happening in the name of Islam.
A little more cultural humility would go a long way.

[unworry]

@p.j.m

indeed. can you provide source or some more context for #1169 please?

I'm especially curious as to what part of the a/c will be identified as object 1, and how far away is it from the cluster of wreckage?

http://i.imgur.com/0plIv9H.jpg

[172driver]

Leaving the various PC trolls aside for a moment (notice to all: don't feed the trolls!).

The last sentence in this Reuters report is interesting, as it pretty clearly states that AirAsia had, in fact, the permission to fly on the day.

Excerpted quote:

A joint statement from Singapore's civil aviation authority (CAAS) and Changi Airport Group said that AirAsia had the necessary approvals to operate a daily flight between Surabaya and Singapore.


Full article here: Weather frustrates divers as more AirAsia wreckage found | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/04/uk-indonesia-airplane-idUKKBN0K601G20150104)

[TWT]

Efforts to capture images with remote operated vehicles (ROVs) were frustrated on Saturday by poor visibility.

I wonder if there are any images that conclusively prove that the objects of interest are,in fact,from the aircraft in question

[ATC Watcher]

A joint statement from Singapore's civil aviation authority (CAAS) and Changi Airport Group said that AirAsia had the necessary approvals to operate a daily flight between Surabaya and Singapore.


Yes from the Singapore side the approval paperwork was OK, we knew that already a few days ago. Apparently this is from the Indenosian side that the "Sunday" approval was missing. It is an interesting point if proven true, as far as availibility of the Met services at the departure airport , outside of normal airport operating hours on a Sunday.

[Ber Nooly]

I wrote this meteorological analysis on this flight.

Indonesia Air Asia 8501: A Meteorological Analysis | Irish Weather Online (http://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2014/12/29/indonesia-air-asia-8501-a-meteorological-analysis/)

[threemiles]

With one small correction:
the flight was never cleared to FL380, but to FL340 only.
Though it appeared at FL363 on radar, but this was not a cleared climb.

In summary I would say, this is weather not untypical for the region, nor for the time of the year.

[MrSnuggles]

A few things:

1) According to Indonesian authorities AirAsia was NOT allowed to fly on Sundays.

2) Despite this, some kind of flight plan must have been filed somewhere for the flight to leave the ground at the airport of origin.

3) Does this in legal terms mean that the flight was allowed although it was not?

4) What would the insurance company make of it?

5) How will this discrepancy affect victims' families?

6) According to Singaporean authorities the flight was allowed to take place in Singaporean airspace to land on a Singaporean airport.

7) Does this in legal terms mean that if the wreck is found in Singaporean waters everything is OK, legally?

8) Or, consequently, does this mean that if the wreck is found in Indonesian waters everything is the opposite of OK, legally?

[Toruk Macto]

He requested FL380 and diversion , he got diversion but told to maintain FL . He was then cleared to FL340. He would have heard other diverting traffic and he would have had TCAS traffic also so we can assume he was keen to only climb to cleared level . Now if he was at FL363 he was not in control at that point . If what I've read so far is correct .

[caulfield]

I wrote this meteorological analysis on this flight.


Good report.I noticed before that EK409 started out being to 8501's right and ended up being well left(south-west)of their flight track.Their deviation appears to be considerable compared to 8501.What 409 saw and their amount of deviation will be of some importance to the investigation.409 faced the same weather at the same time on the same route.

[Ber Nooly]

Yes, and I only said it had requested a climb to FL380. In the end it actually was in a climb towards FL380, whether intentional or not. I suspect not...

[Toruk Macto]

If he hit one of these updrafts you describe and busted his altitude , FL380 is only relevant in that it was a request and probable as high as he could go . To say he was on climb to FL380 is a bit misleading at that point , just as easily say he was on climb to the top of the CB , 45,000 ft or higher . Great weather brief by the way 👍.

[slats11]

Can anyone advise what happens to barometric pressure within a strong updraft at typical cruise levels. I have not come across a definitive answer to this. Some articles describe increased barometric pressure, Others describe a reduced barometric pressure (which is assumed to be the explanation for the high apparent rate of "climb" reportedly seen in this incident).

Just wondering what pressure difference (if any) the static ports see as you enter a strong updraft.

The plane is obviously pushed up by the updraft. But it would be confusing if the static ports sensed increased pressure. At the same time as the plane was being pushed up, the altitude would decrease and the AP would presumably increase pitch and power to recover this lost altitude.

[ATC Watcher]

MrSnuggles :

Trying to reply to your points 2 and 3 : a Flight plan is just a plan to inform ATC of the flight all along its route, and is approved by ATC only, and tacticaly on the day. As as far as I can see from here this was the case.

An application to fly a route carrying pax between 2 States is a totally different thing , subject to political agreements ,reciprocity, et.c and normally ATC ( i.e. the ATS service provider) is not involved, the Civil Aviation authority would be.

The 2 are not linked. You can get one and not the other. And it goes both ways.

For the legal aspects . I do not know, I am not an expert on that.

[Ber Nooly]

That's a fair point, yes. I have updated the summary to take into account both of your comments.

[Capn Bloggs]

Once airborne they were now under pressure to get to Singapore and back, twice, without overrunning their duty hours. When approaching a massive build up their first reaction would have been to go around it but then the time penalty would start to register. The desire to stay inside their time bracket would encourage a 'suck it and see' approach and maybe they tried this.

Sounds like rubbish to me. Do you really think that a 5 minute weather diversion (or an orbit for that matter) would have any bearing on whether they could complete their 4 sectors? What would have happened had they been held at Singapore the first time? Our rules have always had allowable extensions; I'd be very surprised if the Indons don't have. Either that or there is a very dodgy mindset present here.

[Ian W]

Can anyone advise what happens to barometric pressure within a strong updraft at typical cruise levels. I have not come across a definitive answer to this. Some articles describe increased barometric pressure, Others describe a reduced barometric pressure (which is assumed to be the explanation for the high apparent rate of "climb" reportedly seen in this incident).

Just wondering what pressure difference (if any) the static ports see as you enter a strong updraft.

The plane is obviously pushed up by the updraft. But it would be confusing if the static ports sensed increased pressure. At the same time as the plane was being pushed up, the altitude would decrease and the AP would presumably increase pitch and power to recover this lost altitude.

According to research I have read which tends to be biased toward effects on the ground, the air pressure is lower in the updraft than ambient and higher in the downdraft. However, the changes don't appear to be significant enough to provide alarming changes perhaps a few millibars (HPA). I would be more concerned about sudden temperature changes that may fox the ADIRU algorithms for Mach No. and could cause a sudden overspeed indication. Those more knowledgeable in that area could perhaps jump in. However, I have heard of aircraft systems taking emergency overspeed protection action on OAT changes.
The severe updraft itself could have been up to 10,000fpm (100Kts) if you add that to a sudden protection initiated nose up pitch so uncommanded and unexpected by the crew - things could have got suddenly quite exciting. The cold airframe could have hit liquid rain in the updraft which could immediately freeze on the very cold aircraft surfaces and static and pitot ports. I presume at the same time ECAM would have 'helpfully' :rolleyes: been alerting to several urgent issues with alarms going off (overspeed then stall and pressure instrument failure?) this could have been followed by the aircraft at high pitch flying into a downdraft of 10,000fpm down - all of this IMC. Not a pretty thought.

This is why the advice is not to fly near or into severe storms.

[Toruk Macto]

Can never know what's going on inside a blokes head but being ex fast jet he may have been type A ish ? He probable flew through , around or over this type of weather a lot this time of year ? He was one of 3-4 Air Asia aircraft all going in similar direction dealing with same weather system and they where not holding or turning around . There was heavy long haul A/C on same track . Add in a 4 sector day over 11 hours with possible holding in SIN .

[Ber Nooly]

The severe updraft itself could have been up to 10,000fpm (100Kts) if you add that to a sudden protection initiated nose up pitch so uncommanded and unexpected by the crew - things could have got suddenly quite exciting. The cold airframe could have hit liquid rain in the updraft which could immediately freeze on the very cold aircraft surfaces and static and pitot ports. I presume at the same time ECAM would have 'helpfully' been alerting to several urgent issues with alarms going off (overspeed then stall and pressure instrument failure?) this could have been followed by the aircraft at high pitch flying into a downdraft of 10,000fpm down - all of this IMC. Not a pretty thought.

This is why the advice is not to fly near or into severe storms.

From the CAPE values (around 2000 J/kg) indicated by the model analysis I calculated MAXIMUM updraft velocities of around 55 knots. In reality, rain-loading of the updraft reduces actual velolcities by maybe 30-40%, but let's allow for some stronger outliers too. I still can't see 100 knots being possible, but that's a moot point at this stage.

[Lost in Saigon]

He requested FL380 and diversion , he got diversion but told to maintain FL . He was then cleared to FL340. He would have heard other diverting traffic and he would have had TCAS traffic also so we can assume he was keen to only climb to cleared level . Now if he was at FL363 he was not in control at that point . If what I've read so far is correct .

I bet they were already climbing before the FL340 clearance was issued. The fact that ATC never got a response tells me QZ8501 never heard the clearance and they were already out of control.

What time was the FL363 screenshot taken?

Here are two examples of the timeline as reported by two sources:

06:12 QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
Pilot then requests climb from FL320 to FL380
ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next air traffic control sector (Singapore)

06:14 ATC calls QZ8501 to approve partial climb to FL340
No response received after 2 or 3 further attempts to contact
ATC requests help from nearby aircraft to contact QZ8501

06:16 ATC still cannot reach QZ8501
Aircraft still observed on radar screen

06:17 Radar contact lost
Last reported altitude: FL290

06:12L QZ8501 requests Wx deviation and climb to FL380 (deviation granted by ATC)
06:14L ATC issues clearance to FL340 (no response)
06:16L Still in radar contact
06:17L ADS-B contact only
06:18L No transponder (disappears from radar screen)

[bunk exceeder]

There has been no mention so far, that I recall having been through this whole thing, of Air Asia HQ, or Maintrol, or whatever receiving any ECAM Mx fault messages, correct? I assume their ACARS was working that day.

[slats11]

I have read most posts here, and have formed the following take-home messages:

1 Air travel is demonstrably much safer than at any previous time - several recent high profile crashes not withstanding.

2. Air travel is becoming cheaper in absolute (not just relative terms). Its not just a LCC thing. I flew Qantas Sydney - LAX return for $1515 in 1990. I can get much the same fare on Qantas cheaper than this in 2015. Given fuel and labor costs are a large proportion of overheads, it is incredible that costs have decreased in absolute terms over a 25 year period.

3. The emergence of LCC have increased this trend, But it was happening anyway.

4. Commercial aviation is highly competitive, and many airlines fail. Airlines have little discretion over three large overheads - cost of fuel, cost of planes, and cost of borrowing to buy planes (interest rates). There will be some economies of scale of course, but other than this airlines presumably pay much the same for these three things. So when looking to cut costs, airlines can only look to costs of staff, training costs, and maintenance (off-shoring this as much as possible). Cadet ships and P2F reflect the fact that this is where airlines can cut costs.

5. In an increasingly high tech world, people have less understanding of the equipment they use. Whatever they use is increasingly a "black box" - whatever happens inside is a complete mystery. If something breaks, it increasingly needs to be fixed by a professional or else replaced. People have less ability to understand how things work (and they are persuaded they have less need to understand anyway as they are so reliable and nothing goes wrong).

6. Aviation is part of society and is not immune to trends in broader society. Airmanship and a thorough understanding of the aircraft has been gradually replaced by automation and SOPs and ECAM etc. At the same time, it is cheaper for the airline to rely on automation and SOPs, and not to teach airmanship and sound manual flying skills. So all the drivers here are aligned in the same direction.

7. Managers in all walks of life love SOPs as they create a level playing field in their eyes. A SOP can be read by a non-operational manager. SOPs eliminate "judgement call" as a defence for a decision made - non-operationsal managers always hate these as they are unable to judge a judgement call. But they can judge adherence to a SOP. So SOPs serve to dichotomise an individuals performance into either "right" and "wrong" - in a way that is accessible to a non-operational manager.

8. Due to reduced cost, worldwide capacity has increased dramatically. When you need to dramatically increase supply, quality can suffer. People who would not have made the cut a few decades ago now get through (this isn't just an aviation thing either). And everyone wants to believe that quality pilots don't really matter much anymore. The airlines want to believe it to reduce costs. The airplane manufacturers peddle this line knowing it is what the airlines want to hear.

9. On top of all this, some people here suggest a problem with Asian cultures and over-reliance on automation. They point to the presumed cause for this crash, or Asiana 214 at SFO (and overlook the western crews of AF447 or QF1 at Bangkok). I have spent a fair bit of time in Asia, and enjoy the culture. Maybe there is a case that the deferential culture at times allows small problems to develop into big problems. Maybe. But I suspect the real issue has less to do with the culture per se, and more to do with:
a) this is where growth has been most dramatic (and hence quality control is likely to be most problematic)
b) developing countries mean developing standards (as mentioned by others)
c) they have to deliver the product at a lower price consistent with the lower cost of living in this region. They pay the same for fuel and planes, so guess where the savings are achieved.

And I suspect that worldwide aviation has much bigger problems to address than different cultures in different areas. Because our similarities are greater than our differences.


Its all a bit grim. Particularly as bean-counters will keep pointing to number 1 (increased safety overall) and state there is no problem.

[VR-HFX]

Slats

That about says it all. Fate is of our own creation and she is now very much the hunter.

Accident statistics prove only that HAL mostly has the situation under control but when he has an off day, the operators are less and less capable of doing anything about it.

[captplaystation]

glendalegoon, try using a decent sized screen & not an i-phone



slats11 , good (but depressing to realise ) summary :ok:

[ATC Watcher]

bunk ex:
I assume their ACARS was working that day.

Air Asia A320s as far as I know are not ACARS equipped

[Sop_Monkey]

Slats

Regarding barometric pressure changes in a strong up drought. I am more concerned about the possible temperature change if entering a strong updraft. Apart from the up drought itself upsetting the aircraft, that temperature rise will play havoc if you are struggling along with 1.3 G protection at say ISA. If the ambient temperature is suddenly ISA +10c (not unheard of) or ISA +05c.

The above example is just one reason to consider an even lower altitude, if "caught out". Sure you're in for a rough ride but the chances of staying in control and not departing are so much greater.

[Propduffer]

FR24 has ADS-B information for QZ8501
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/551669337023840256/photo/1

From this we see that the FR24 last known position was seen at 23:10:57 at 3.996 s 110.232 e. This is much closer to the area where the big pieces are resting (the FR24 LNP is about 21 miles west of the debris location)

I tried to calculate speed for the last two position reports and came up with a speed of about 20 kts. This calculation may not be accurate as it may be affected by the timing of the ADS-B transmission (the sample period is only 36 seconds.) But it could actually represent the forward speed of QZ8501 in its last seconds.

If I back up and calculate the average speed for the last 100 seconds of FR24s' data I find an average GS of 329 Kts.

(3.996 s 110.232 e to 4.083 s 110.335e = 54,897ft)
(23:10:57 to 23:12:37 = 100 seconds)

54897 / 100 * 60 * 60/ 6000 = 329 K


The FR24 information provides a last known location that is much more in accord with the debris fields being reported.

(We never have been told where the earlier Indonesian supplied last known positions came from - primary radar or ATC radar.)

[nickp]

Can you tell an Airbus autopilot just to maintain attitude and power, effectively taking the height and speed locks out?

[training wheels]

Sounds like rubbish to me. Do you really think that a 5 minute weather diversion (or an orbit for that matter) would have any bearing on whether they could complete their 4 sectors? What would have happened had they been held at Singapore the first time? Our rules have always had allowable extensions; I'd be very surprised if the Indons don't have. Either that or there is a very dodgy mindset present here.

Flight and duty times in Indonesia are 14 hours duty time (with up to 3 hours extension) and 9 hours flight time. Abit more than in most countries, but you'll find that flying four sectors a day is the norm these days (even at Lion apparently, since the Bali Kuta beach landing).

[bille1319]

06:12 QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
Pilot then requests climb from FL320 to FL380
ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next air traffic control sector (Singapore)


Who was the nearby traffic and what exactly was their seperation at 06:12? Was it flight UAE-409, AIr Asia flight M635 etc and how come none have reported unusual effects due to weather?

Could it be that a weather 'bomb' is so confined to such a very small local area that craft in the region experience little or no effects from this hazard?

[ironbutt57]

hail shaft can be very isolated..

[IcePack]

nickp. That is what you get on FBW aircraft when you take the Auto Pilot out. However the system is complex and to understand it you need to take a type rating. (basically Auto pilot is guidance only)

[BG47]

“.......Five major parts of the Airbus A320-200 have now been found off the island of Borneo. But rough weather last week hampered the search, a huge operation assisted by several countries including the United States and Russia.

During a momentary respite from bad weather, a team of divers went down to the biggest part of the wreckage Sunday morning and recovered one body, while another three were found floating in the sea, bringing the total number recovered to 34.

The divers "managed to go down but the visibility at the sea bottom was zero, it was dark and the seabed was muddy, with currents of three to five knots," search and rescue agency chief Bambang Soelistyo told reporters.

He said the fifth major part of the plane, located early Sunday, measured about 10 metres by one metre.

The search, focused on a site southwest of the Borneo town of Pangkalan Bun, has also been extended east because parts of the plane may have been swept by currents, Soelistyo said.....”

Another article on Times Strait today reports:

"JAKARTA - The chief of Indonesia's search and rescue agency Basarnas expressed optimism on Sunday that the black box of AirAsia Indonesia flight QZ8501 was located "not far" from five large objects the search operation had spotted in the Java Sea.

"The black box should not be far from the five significant objects we found," Mr Fransiskus Bambang Soelistyo told a media briefing at the agency's headquarters in Jakarta late on Sunday.
Officials had believed they were close to a major breakthrough after pinpointing five large objects on the sea floor thought to be parts of the Airbus A320-200 jet this weekend. But Mr Bambang Soelistyo noted the ongoing difficulty facing the multinational recovery operation: "Our challeng is mud. Lots of mud at the sea bottom.”.....Up to now, he said, no vessels had detected any signal beamed from the black boxes, or flight recorders. He said five vessels with the ability to locate black boxes will be assigned on Monday. The weather also remains a problem, he said. "Several (divers) tried to dive but had to return. Safety is also important for rescuers," he told reporters...."

[Lost in Saigon]

06:12 QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
Pilot then requests climb from FL320 to FL380
ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next air traffic control sector (Singapore)


Who was the nearby traffic and what exactly was their seperation at 06:12? Was it flight UAE-409, AIr Asia flight M635 etc and how come none have reported unusual effects due to weather?

Could it be that a weather 'bomb' is so confined to such a very small local area that craft in the region experience little or no effects from this hazard?

The other traffic in the area probably just did a better job deviating around the weather.


http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/msowsun/photo%20stuff/Photo15/airasia-area-altitudes-graphic.jpg

[lomapaseo]

I'm just trying to check if I have missed something in the last week
The update above by jcjeant is clear but it sure doesn't seem to match even 50% of the post so far on this thread.

I'm all for some speculation but there seems to be too many twists and turns of sub level (given that. given that, given that) this probably happened conclusions.

It seems that the visible wreckage and bodies to date only confirm a water impact and nothing else. Still TBD, possible inflight breakup, twists and turns, or flat impact

Nothing on the sea floor as yet confirms that the main wreckage has been found, let alone understood regarding how the plane entered the water.

Maybe it's just me and I missed something said earlier but how does the day of flight permissions have any bearing on this accident cause?

[mcloaked]

Basarnas: Debris show plane body broken - Malaysiakini (http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/285265)

One interesting line in that news item is "Indonesian transport minister threatens to sack those who cleared QZ8501 for take off when AirAsia was not permitted to fly on Sundays" - not that it has any relevance to why the accident happened.

Also interesting is that no pings received from the black boxes - I wonder why?

[AirScotia]

Flightradar's ADS-B for the end of the flight.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/551669337023840256/photo/1

Someone has commented on the 7001 squawk, which puzzled me when I saw the FR24 playback. The AirAsia flight following just behind squawked 7002, I seem to remember.

Are those squawk numbers allowed for civilian flights in that airspace?

[NigelOnDraft]

(3.996 s 110.232 e to 4.083 s 110.335e = 54,897ft)
(23:10:57 to 23:12:37 = 100 seconds)

54897 / 100 * 60 * 60/ 6000 = 329 KI would suggest, from a quick look last valid position was 23:12:01 - it seems to slow then stop after that? As does the data rate (from every 3s to a big gap). Quick calc by me makes it 494K?

Are the 3rd/4th columns from the right TAS & Hdg? Track? 2nd V/S? Last column?

[oldchina]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTn2QxYKqaQ

[Flagon]

Raft would appear to be partially inflated as it comes aboard?

[DaveReidUK]

Are the 3rd/4th columns from the right TAS & Hdg? No, groundspeed and track.

2nd V/S? Yes.

Last column?No idea.

[fireflybob]

Life raft retrieval by Singapore ship

Is that not an escape slide? (Which granted may be used as a flotation device).

[Ian W]

From the CAPE values (around 2000 J/kg) indicated by the model analysis I calculated MAXIMUM updraft velocities of around 55 knots. In reality, rain-loading of the updraft reduces actual velolcities by maybe 30-40%, but let's allow for some stronger outliers too. I still can't see 100 knots being possible, but that's a moot point at this stage.

I realize that I increased the amount of the updraft it was for simplicity of calculation. I still think that the more likely cause of the upset would be the coincidence of a severe updraft and a jump in OAT that would confuse the ADIRUs. If that was linked to sudden accumulation of clear icing from liquid water droplets in the updraft that could block pitot/static ports, then things could get very confusing for both the automatics and the flight crew.

Experts on the Airbus AIDRU algorithms should be able to give an idea on how they could react to:
1. Sudden OAT increase in cruise at FL320
2. Sudden loss of reliable pitot/static information (possibly associated with (1).

The response of the FMC to the AIDRUs could be added to a sudden updraft with a VS of let's say 5,000fpm (to use a value in line with your CAPE values). If the FMC initiated a 'protection' pitch up at the same time as the ambient air was lifting the aircraft at 5000fpm it might explain the apparent unlikely climb rates.

[DrPhillipa]

One interesting line in that news item is "Indonesian transport minister threatens to sack those who cleared QZ8501 for take off when AirAsia was not permitted to fly on Sundays" - not that it has any relevance to why the accident happened.


Or maybe it has, assuming the passenger quota for SUB-SIN was correlated to all the other flights through the area and had something to do with potential safe AC density and separation in an habitually weather threatened airspace.

[AfricanSkies]

The machine has radar. It has multiple sensors and computers. When it sees that it is about to enter a turbulent zone as detected by radar, or indeed enters one, why can't it go into a 'Cautionary' mode where it will be anticipating conditions (large buffets, icing) and react accordingly, instead of not anticipating anything, flying along as if it is blind when it is in fact not, and blithely and stupidly sounding stall warnings when the airspeed drops by a ridiculous amount in an incredible time? If you're going to automate things, then automate them. Don't even display data that fails creditibility tests - it just confuses the pilots. Just pause the game, maintain thrust and attitude and display possible viable alternative data such as INS derived airspeed and AOA* to the pilots, remain engaged using such data but give the crew full unrestricted control if that data indicates flight outside its parameters. Do this until such time that conditions are such that credible data is again calculable, verified with the INS data, and only then display that data to the crew.

Its no use having the million dollar computer display rubbish to you.


*as the INS can describe a FPV then all the factors contributing to that vector can be calculated, even airspeed
(Please do educate me here if I'm incorrect, I'm just a pilot not an expert)

[Flagon]

"Is that not an escape slide?" - indeed, but when detached becomes a 'raft' as per drills.

"not that it has any relevance to why the accident happened. Or maybe it has.." - no - totally itrrelevant. This is a route licensing issue and has zero to do with this accident as far as I can see - a true 'red herring' which could even be 'political' trouble-making by another carrier.

[ATC Watcher]

Air Scotia : Are those squawk numbers allowed for civilian flights in that airspace?
Yes. Normal SSR codes.

DrPhillipa :had something to do with potential safe AC density and separation in an habitually weather threatened airspace
Absolutely not. Reason(s) for the Minister agitation is elsewhere, and he is not finished as I heard.

[thcrozier]

I understand very little about the ASEAN Open Skies policy, implementation of which is supposed to be complete by year end. But it does seem to be creating some friction between Indonesia and Singapore. That the Minister repeatedly failed to enforce an agreement between the two countries probably puts him in political hot water. Hence this unexpected CYA blame-shifting.

Asean open skies on track - The Nation (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Asean-open-skies-on-track-30251005.html)

http://thejakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/business/indonesian-air-carriers-nose-engines-idle-effort-stall-asean-open-sky/

[BigG22]

I admit to reading only 66% of this thread so perhaps I might have missed something. Apologies if this is the case.

It is well known that the CFM56 fan is neither capable nor certified to tolerate bird strikes of a size such as occured in the case of US Airways Flight 1549. A little research reveals that earlier CFM56 fan sets suffered from resonance and high-cycle fatigue. And in addition, rain/hail ingestion has also given rise to several incidents with this engine.

Perhaps what is generally less well known is that CFM56 fan blades have been observed to suffer significant damage in the event of ice accretion. When this occurs, high levels of N1 engine tracked order vibration are likely to be observed, along with audible changes in engine 'tone'. The consequences of prolonged engine operation in this condition merit little discussion.

The following report therefore, although not conclusive, contains some degree of credibility:

AirAsia Flight 8501 Crash Possibly Caused by Icing, Indonesian Report Says - WSJ (http://www.wsj.com/articles/airasia-flight-8501-crash-possibly-caused-by-icing-indonesian-report-says-1420298553)

Are A320 and B737 pilots routinely trained in ice shedding manouvres, and what is the policy for avoidance of potential ice accretion?

By way of explanation, my personal backgound is in aircraft and engine prognostic health monitoring, including engine bird strike detection and fan blade damage detection.

[AfricanSkies]

A thought. Now that accellerometers are so tiny, would it not be possible to mount sets of them at each extremity of the aircraft (nose , tail, wingtips) and then calculate a graphic representation of the aircraft's movements in space? Could be presented to the crew as a 3rd person view perhaps?

[nickp]

Thanks IcePack. It was a simple question - can I set the a/c up at turbulence penetration speed/mach, power and attitude and the a/c will then maintain power and attitude and ignore any other sensor inputs?
I get the impression the answer is 'no', because the various protection systems will kick in.

[etudiant]

A question for those who know A 320 cabin sidewall materials.
There was an image earlier in this thread of a damaged sidewall, including the window surround, that was recovered at sea. The sidewall was neatly cut across the top, is though it had been sheared.
Is there anything other than high speed aerodynamic stresses that can shear a composite structure so cleanly?
It seemed to me that this bit of debris was pretty strong evidence that the aircraft had broken up in flight. Is this a mistaken belief?
Certainly the absence of any cockpit communications during a long fall from 30 odd thousand feet is more consistent with a catastrophe than an icing/loss of control scenario.
After all, they were in ongoing ATC communication, unlike AF447.

[MrSnuggles]

etudiant.

As I answered to the original poster of that picture, we need to see the adjacent structure to make any claims of any sorts.

This type of damage can occur in many ways. One of the many ways may be that when the plane hit the ocean the forces made the bottom half snap cleanly from the wall structure but the upper part may have been stuck by, well, let's say, an overhead cabin and thus the crumbled upper part. This is just one of MANY explanations for this. Please remember that.

[HarryMann]

Etudiant

anything 'other' than high speed aerodynamic stresses that could do that,?

Whatever you mean by high speed aerodynamic stresses... lots of things could. A kniife like object striking it maybe...

Water is hard when struck at any speed.
Depending on how an object is supported acceleration or deceleration alone can achieve surprising things. Aerodynamic s doesn't have to come into it, high speed or not
so proof of nothing yet IMHO

NB. Aerodynamic Forces create stresses (and strains) on objects... per se there
is no such thing as an aerodynamic stress, other than maybe between molecules
of air.

[AirScotia]

The debris found shortly after the AF447 crash showed similar characteristics, and that was high velocity impact with the ocean. The cruise-level destruction of MH17 resulted in much smaller pieces (apart from engines) and fragmented bodies.

[ekw]

Slats11, your economic model is a little off. It should be Revenue - (Fixed Costs + Product Costs) = Profit. The biggest fixed cost savings which LCC find is in operating from cheaper airfields. They will only operate from expensive airfields when loading is always high (e. g. Hong Kong). Through clever hedging they might save on fuel as well but that can be a double edged sword. Whilst staff costs are cheaper in Asia than in Europe, there is no difference here between legacy and LCC carriers. Both pay peanuts for ground staff and cabin crew but both have to recruit internationally for the flight deck and maintenance. The real savings are in product costs. LCC try to achieve higher turn around times and higher efficiency by removing services which are not required in order to perform the contract of moving the customer from A to B. The inference that LCC are compromising safety is not accurate because if they were, their insurance premiums would move in tandem, killing their profit. Allianz actuaries will be sratching their heads trying to figure out why Malaysian* airlines are now such a big risk. 3 crashes yes, but no obvious link.

*Air Asia Indonesia is controlled by its parent, Air Asia notwithstanding that for political/legal reasons an Indonesian investor appears to own 51%.

[etudiant]

Thank you for the considered replies.
I spoke of high speed aerodynamic because in my limited experience, composites rarely snap cleanly as they did here, they usually have bits sticking above the line of separation, unless the break is very forceful and sudden. That plus the abrupt silence of the crew together are pretty significant, imho.

[Propduffer]

@Machinbird

Here is a KML file which expands on my post 1197.
Plug it into Google Earth and you will find the FR24 data plotted, showing the actual coordinates along with the debris locations etc.



https://www.dropbox.com/s/8j2tl52m5d43mxe/Asia%20Air%208501.kmz?dl=0

[Leightman 957]

Clips on this piece have been noted previously. What is top and what is bottom?
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/80044000/jpg/_80044578_80044577.jpg
I answered my own question: clips are at the panel top as suggested by A320 photos showing a radius on the panel concavity below the window. Panel bottom torn, top undamaged.

[ettore]

'Crashed AirAsia jet's pilots did not get weather report' - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/crashed-airasia-jets-pilots-did-not-get-weather-report/articleshow/45751125.cms)

Sorry if already posted. If true, I'm stunned :eek:

[McWho]

The only window I've seen is a plastic panel which is undamaged at one end and torn at the other. The wind probably tore it from its fixings. Would all passengers please replace their tin foil hats.

Given that the fixings in the bottom of the photo have hooks pointing up, I'd imagine that's the top. We can all rest easy knowing if we get bored on our next flight we know how to annoy the cabin crew by dismantling the interior of the aircraft.

[etudiant]

'Crashed AirAsia jet's pilots did not get weather report' according to Jakarta Post 'Crashed AirAsia jet's pilots did not get weather report' - The Economic Times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/crashed-airasia-jets-pilots-did-not-get-weather-report/articleshow/45751125.cms)

Sorry if already posted. If true, I'm stunned :eek:




Seen that there were other flights shortly ahead of him, behind him and to either side of him, it would be surprising if any weather reports would have changed a thing for the pilot of 8501.

[captplaystation]

ettore, I am going to post what I already posted on the 31st December, as I am led to believe, if we apply "normal" European decision making as regards go/no-go, whether to penetrate weather, how much separation to allow, there would be NO air travel in this part of the world.

I therefore humbly submit, that the failure (if there was one ) to get a "weather report" is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. Throw your hands up in horror if you wish, but, I am led to believe that, operating in that part of the world, is based very much on firstly going, and sussing it out the best you can once underway.

Standing by for corroboration/shooting down as required, but that is how I have been told it is. My (prev) post below.


I have not had the "pleasure" of flying in that part of the world, however, a couple of very experienced colleagues that did, for some time, intimated to me that if you did not accept to routinely fly through weather that you assuredly would avoid in Europe, you wouldn't operate any flights.

I doubt (knowing the individuals & their experience) if this was too much of an exaggeration, I believe it is quite probably the day to day reality of ops in that part of the world.

[ettore]

@etudiant

May be, may be not.

But - and again if this is true - it would be quite dearly telling about poor airmanship, safety culture and it would draw hefty liability consequences.

@captplaystation

May be. But - again, if this is true - it would certainly draw hefty liability consequences.

[Propduffer]

RE: "pilots did not get weather report"

That article strikes me as pure hyperbole. Does this newspaper expect that Captain Iriyanto was supposed to sit on the runway for an hour and a half waiting for a weather report?

This Captain was local to the area, he knew what the weather was like (all he had to do was look up as he walked to the plane.) There were a half a dozen other planes out in that weather, he could have gotten pireps anytime he was curious. Weather reports can only give generalized reports for an area, they can't pinpoint individual cells anyway. That's what the planes' weather radar is for.

Much ado about nothing.

[slats11]

Thanks ekw. I doubt there is any significant connection for Allianz to find between this, MH370 and MH17. They appear to be 3 very different incidents.

In some ways I find this the most disconcerting due to possible underlying factors.

I had simplified it a bit. Less popular airports, less popular timeslots, pre-packed food (for sale), reduced baggage etc are among the many ways LCC reduce costs. My point is LCC pay much the same for planes, interest rates, and fuel. So there are only so many places they can reduce costs. And so everything that is discretionary is reviewed to minimise costs.

The inference that LCC are compromising safety is not accurate because if they were, their insurance premiums would move in tandem, killing their profit.

Not so sure about that. The fact is that airline travel is very safe so it is difficult to see any differences that may exist. So people have to make subjective decisions due to insufficient objective data. As others have commented however, most people can't do this and price is paramount.

We are in the midst of widespread and probably unprecedented changes between society and technology. Never before have people been so divorced from the technology they use. This is a general issue that is changing all society. Aviation is but one symptom of this.

I think these changes are a risk for all. Air France is not a LCC. But I do believe LCC are probably more vulnerable to these changes.

[Sop_Monkey]

Captainplaystation, exactly.

If you fly in or near the the ITCZ for long enough, sooner or later you are going to end up, where you shouldn't, or don't want to be. There can be many reasons for this.

The important point being, give yourself plenty of margin for this eventuality.

Culture

Properly trained crews anywhere can be as good or as bad as anywhere else. However if they are allowed to pressurized by corporate greed and face punishment by a culture of fear and intimidation, that is a recipe for disaster. This is especially so for inexperienced pilots who maybe allow themselves to be so pressured influencing incorrect decisions. This is where, a proper regulator (or lack of) that ensures this doesn't occur is the real problem, as I see it.

[etudiant]

Properly trained crews anywhere can be as good or as bad as anywhere else. However if they are allowed to pressurized by corporate greed and face punishment by a culture of fear and intimidation, that is a recipe for disaster. This is especially so for inexperienced pilots who maybe allow themselves to be so pressured influencing incorrect decisions. This is where, a proper regulator that ensures this doesn't occur is the real problem, as I see it.




Here we have a very senior captain on a routine flight, which was also routine for the many other airplanes in the same sky at the same time.
It is difficult to extrapolate this accident into an issue centering on 'corporate greed' or ' a culture of fear and intimidation'.
That just seems a cop out to me when we have a very specific accident to evaluate.

[INeedTheFull90]

Ice shedding can be done on the ground or engine anti ice used in the air to get with the ignition turned on for maximum protection in the vicinity of weather.

Even if both engines flamed out due to there would be the means of communicating with the ground and plenty of time. Therefore engine icing is improbable and this incident was sudden and catastrophic.

[Sop_Monkey]

Agreed.

I was generalizing with the culture thing. We will never eliminate human error, no matter what the culture.

[MrSnuggles]

To all who looks at the debris photos:

When you see many adjacent part in context, then you can often tell what may or may not have happened. The photo of the relatively intact airplane window panel can not be taken out of context. It there are more debris found you can start making deductions.

The debris found shortly after the AF447 crash showed similar characteristics, and that was high velocity impact with the ocean. The cruise-level destruction of MH17 resulted in much smaller pieces (apart from engines) and fragmented bodies.

If several pieces of debris turn up rather undamaged like on the photo, a scenario where the plane hits the water with minor or no external damage MAY be what we're looking at. Reference the popular AF447.

If several pieces of debris turn up that are small and shattered you are more likely to have an in-flight break-up like Air India 182 (also a water event).

Please remember that even in the cases of Lockerbie and MH17 (debris on ground, not water) there are several pieces that are somewhat large-ish and undamaged so there are huge pitfalls in trying to guess from only one photo of debris.

So, can we move on from that window panel now?

Please continue to post photos of debris as they turn up though, I follow this thread more closely than any other news outlet.

[HarryMann]

Here we have a very senior captain on a routine flight, which was also routine for the many other airplanes in the same sky at the same time.
It is difficult to extrapolate this accident into an issue centering on 'corporate greed' or ' a culture of fear and intimidation'.
That just seems a cop out to me when we have a very specific accident to evaluate



Yes, that's a fair point alright!

[glendalegoon]

1. fasten seat belts cockpit and cabin including FAS

2. engine ignition on, engine anti ice on


3. rough air penetration speed

4. adjust tilt and gain on wx radar

5 direction of clearer air if things get bad

[captplaystation]

1 - for pax, a "ping" on the recording, I am sure it was done, if it was rough, quite possibly much earlier, if it was indeed ever switched off / for crew . . if some real nasties were anticipated, normally a conversation on the inter phone, or, in extremis (never been there personally ) "CC be seated immediately " or suchlike on the PA.

2 - not neccesarily a call out, with TAT colder than -40c, TAI not required on a B737, don't know for A320 but, same engines, so would imagine similar, ignition is normally "Auto" so crew action only required in severe turbulence

3 - if it is rough, agreed "may" be some verbal discussion, but most companies PF may make adjustments to speed without verbal confirmation to the other crew member.

4 - Good luck with that one. . . .

5 - there may be some discussion about which way to turn, and, normally, a request to ATC to do so, but. . .it isn't a bloody hollywood movie FFS, so, lack of "verbal annunciation", should not be interpreted as "asleep/not paying attention/not on the case". . . . Are you a current/rated/practicing/member of crew/Jet Transport ? if not, well. . .you are, a bit of a "clutter" on a semi-serious discussion. . . .as bloody usual on pprune :ugh:

[NSEU]

Experts....

How susceptible are ADIRUs to extreme turbulence? Specifically, the attitude section.

I seem to recall an incident with one of our aircraft (Boeing) which lost two of the three IRUs due to severe turbulence (perhaps about 10 years ago). I can't recall, however, if the IRUs were switched to ATT mode to help recover basic attitude displays.

Do ADIRUs have more than the basic 3 laser gyro and accelerometer pairs?
Do A320s automatically switch to an attitude display if navigation mode is lost? (plus manual backup). Of course, ATT mode is mode is useless if you can't achieve level flight for a certain period of time.

Note: I've even seen faulty attitude displays on ISFDs (with solid state accelerometers) after a manually generated upset. A reset was required.

There's a lot of talk about using pitch/power when air data is lost, but if attitude was lost, too....

[NSEU]

Where are the CVR/DFDRs located on the A320?

Are they in a section of the fuselage which is surrounded by metal on all sides which may attenuate the ultrasonic signals? Could they be in an air pocket and not submerged in water?

Other than rough weather, I'm trying to speculate why no signals have yet been detected.

[freespeed2]

SOP Monkey

Apart from the up drought itself upsetting the aircraft, that temperature rise will play havoc if you are struggling along with 1.3 G protection at say ISA. If the ambient temperature is suddenly ISA +10c (not unheard of) or ISA +05c.

In the experience that I quoted previously the OAT at FL410 went from ISA+2C to ISA+29C in the space of 5 seconds. However I would speculate that this would be less critical for an A320 at FL320, although it would put a cold aircraft surface back into the temperature region for super-cooled water droplets.

Since I don't fly the A320, any Airbus drivers got any suggestions on how an A320 would handle a sudden temp change of that magnitude at FL320?

[Photonic]

"Other than rough weather, I'm trying to speculate why no signals have yet been detected."

There have been reports about mud and silt on the sea floor being a problem with recovering likely debris, so attenuation of the signal might be a factor. It can only ping if it's not buried in mud.

[glendalegoon]

captplaystation

not quite sure what you mean. but yes, I am a current captain for a major airline

and we would certainly talk about changing speed to turbulence penetration speed. its called crm.

when we face rough air ahead, I brief the FA's or have the F/O brief them via the interphone. I make sure they have secured the cabin in advance of the rough air and are buckled in their seat belts.

I have a feeling our airline does things differently than your airline.

I wouldn't expect the F/O to change speeds without informing or seeking concurrence from the capt.

I would expect the captain to announce to the f/o that we were slowing to turbulence penetration speed.


And , just in case you don't know. When we get a clearance for another altitude we have a whole system of setting the altitude in the alerter pointing, saying, verifying.

[slats11]

Who would have thought we would be back here so soon listening for pingers completely unsuitable for the function we now require of them.....

They are extremely short range (and short lived) and so can only be relied upon for locating the recorders when you are in the right vicinity.

Hopefully thy are close to the section they reportedly recovered a body from. However you would hope they would have heard them if that close. Not much you can do about waves, but presumably non essential ships and aircraft can be kept away.

So maybe they are further away. Or maybe burried in silt. Or maybe they didn't survive intact.

[mickjoebill]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTn2QxYKqaQ


At the very end of this video of the recovery of a slide, is a shot of the slide inflation cylinder gauge.
Would someone who knows the system care to comment on the position of the needle?

[einhverfr]

If they were technically unauthorised for that flight, that might very well 'technically' invalidate their insurance, might it not...?

Things work differently in Indonesia than in the US or Europe. The official rules and the real rules don't really have as much overlap as you might expect. This is true both regarding insurance and regulations. Put another way, rules in Indonesia are flexible things but there is a lot of scrutiny into how they are bent.

If they were flying four days a week, chances are the transportation ministry knew what they were up to.

[thcrozier]

As a diver with almost 30 years experience, diving with 3 to 6 inches of visibility when you know the terrain is as easy as an instrument approach through coastal fog with no wind. With a current and/or exploring even a well known wreck there's a high pucker factor.

[fergineer]

Mick the slide was partially inflated so therefore the gauge would be reading low if the door had been smashed open on impact the slide would have or could have inflated.

[_Phoenix]

mickjoebill,

indicator shows that compressed gas from cylinder was transferred, as can be seen at the beginning of the video

[Australopithecus]

The escape slides do not have an inflation bottle big enough to fully inflate the slide. Instead, the bottles, when triggered by opening the door in auto, blow through a venturi which sucks the ambient air into the slide. An anti-deflation valve traps the resultant mass of air in the inflation chambers. Its a simple system with one moving part.

The downside is that, inflated underwater, the slide cannot fully inflate, and sucks in some water during the inflation sequence. This is why the 737 slides are not also rafts. A slightly better intake location on widebody slides allows them to double as rafts.

[BG47]

JAKARTA - Indonesia's transport ministry has ordered airport authorities to take action against staff who allowed Indonesia AirAsia to fly outside its approved schedule.

This comes after the ministry said the airline was not allowed to fly the Surabaya-Singapore route on Sunday. The missing flight QZ8501 had taken off on a Sunday.

"We issued orders to them to move these staff from a position related to flight operations," Djoko Murjatmodjo, acting director general of air transportation, said on Monday.

If there were staff from the transport ministry who were also involved, the ministry will take action against them, he added.

"Investigation is ongoing now. We won't apply a double standard stance. We wont discriminate."

The transport ministry is currently checking the airline's flight schedule to see if they match the airline's permits or agreements, he said.

Additional report on Strait Times:

“....The Basarnas chief said five vessels with the ability to locate black boxes would be deployed on Monday.

On Sunday, the search fleet included six fixed wing planes (four from Indonesia, one each from South Korea and Russia), 14 helicopters (10 from indonesia, two from Singapore and two from the US) and 27 ships (16 from Indonesia including two tankers to help with logistics and fuel, four from Singapore, three from Malaysia, two from the US and two from Japan).

KRI Bung Tomo, the main Indonesian vessel that had helped with sonar detection work, was sent home and was replaced by two vessels on Sunday: KRI Usman Harun and KRI Frans Kaisepo, which also have sonar beaming equipment, he said...."

[smiling monkey]

And here comes the typical knee jerk reaction from the minister for transport and their over simplistic band-aid solutions to a much larger problem in Indonesia.

AirAsia Flight QZ8501: Indonesia mandates pilot briefings before flight departure - South-east Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/airasia-flight-qz8501-indonesia-mandates-pilot-briefings-flight-depa)

Pilot briefing officers went out of fashion about 25 years ago in Australia because the Dept Of Civil Aviation realized pilots were capable of decoding a TAF and Area Forecast themselves without the aid of a talking head.

[8/8ths Blue]

@Australopithecus


Maybe the reason the slide appears to be quite heavy is that it has an amount of water in it?

[ATC Watcher]

Regarding the lack of Weather briefing prior departure :
Yes it might not really be a contributing factor to the actual accident but if proven true , it is in breach of regulations and for the insurance companies an open hangar door.
Plus it seems to become a local political football between the proponents of a strong regulator (State) and the proponents of liberal free enterprise ( the new privately owed airlines ) who do not like too much restrictive rules.
What this whole circus shows is the total inability of the State to control and regulate properly its airlines , but we knew that already from the EU ban .

[Ranger One]

Things work differently in Indonesia than in the US or Europe. The official rules and the real rules don't really have as much overlap as you might expect. This is true both regarding insurance and regulations. Put another way, rules in Indonesia are flexible things but there is a lot of scrutiny into how they are bent.

I'm well aware of that.

The issue in this case may well be that the insurers are European, not Indonesian, and therefore play by the official rules rather than 'local rules', if you take my meaning.

If the flight was not authorised under the terms of the official Indonesian AOC, licenses, and permits, they might well regard that as reasonable excuse to invalidate the cover. Insurance operates under the legal doctrine of 'utmost good faith', remember.

[BG47]

Surabaya Mayor Tri Rismaharini has offered experts on insurance law from Surabaya Airlangga University, East Java, to help the families of the victims on AirAsia flight QZ8501, which crashed into the Karimata Strait.

“I don’t understand law in the insurance world. That’s why I asked insurance law experts from Airlangga University to assist the victims’ families,” Risma, as the mayor is affectionately called, told The Jakarta Post, Sunday.

Risma said that the experts would assist the victims’ families by examining the calculated insurance values and reading the insurance contract thoroughly so they would not become victims again.

“I want AirAsia to pay to the victims’ families thoroughly,” she said.

She added that assistance would be available for non-Surabayans as well and that she was ready to help communicate with heads of the regions where the respective victims originally came from.

Risma said that all the data concerning the victims who originally came from Surabaya had been collected 12 hours after the aircraft lost contact with Jakarta air traffic control and was sent to banks and insurance offices.

Ronny Tanubun who represented passenger Adrian Fernando, 13, of Surabaya welcomed the mayor’s move, saying that it was the right step to take as most of the families of the flight accident victims did not understand insurance.

“I conveyed my misgivings to Bu Risma after receiving the calculated insurance payments from AirAsia several days ago,” Ronny said.

The aircraft plunged into the Java Sea along with its 155 passengers and 7 crew on Dec. 28. Most of the passengers were Surabaya residents.

AirAsia President Director Sunu Widyatmoko did not respond to the question regarding the insurance payments during a press briefing conducted at the East Java police’s crisis center.

Previously, AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes said that his company would take full responsibility for all the victims and crew members of the ill-fated flight and would provide compensation for the families of the victims.

Separately, chairman of the East Java branch of the Consumer Protection Institute Foundation (YLPK), Said Sutomo, said his office was preparing to sue AirAsia if investigations revealed that the company violated flight license and passenger safety procedures.