The reason teh virus spread in China was because Chinese Govt did not do lockdown not because they did it.

Wuhan could have been locked down 2 weeks earlier and stopped it there and then. They didn't and with millions going back home for New Year holidays the virus went with them. Baidu maps correlated the movement of people from Wuhan and the increase in cases, further correlated by Chinese mobile phone companies.

The idea that supposed "Liberal Democracy" states willnot take specific action is laughable, they will but when it suits not when needed. No different from anywhere else.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur...ustom2=twitter

Austria is closing its boarder with Italy

Jet2 cancelling all flights from the UK to Italy.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co....tbreak-2445228

Yet Japan has reported reinfections and I know I read of others so not so irresponsible

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...aly/?market=en

Ryanair suspends all Italian flights

Spain has just shut the door on ALL Italian flights from midnight tomorrow https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/busi...ost_type=share

:rolleyes: Sorry who? Which airline is this?

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....69751d1902.png

And on the 4th April (start of Easter) all will be right with Italy. I am thinking summer at the earliest if not longer and then there will still be no bookings as the public are spooked.

So which airlines could handle say 3 months lost bookings spread over six months? This seems a likely scenario at present

Cash Flow is the major thing - even the biggies likes EZY and RYR can get very hurt or go boom or bust just because of the lack of cash flow
Many airlines nowadays have few or no assets as a/c are leased.

One saving grace if fuel prices stay very low and Govt's perhaps do something about easing passenger taxes and APD (but then the Greens will kick off)

If you read up a little on the case of the one Japanese woman (yes it was just one) who was tested positive a couple of weeks after being cleared of the virus at a hospital, you will find that nearly all the experts thought that is a case of the original infection lying dormant and then perhaps reaching her lower respiratory system. At that point she reported a sore throat and chest pains and was tested again and found positive. There was a similar report of a Chinese woman presenting in that way.

Ryanair have $4bn in the bank and own 90% of their aircraft.

I did say ''Many'' not all

FYI EZY lost 20% of their value last week

Are they being selective? 5 minutes ago, a quick look at traffic around Italy showed a Ryanair arriving at Bologna ex Eindhoven, a flight from Naples to Bergamo and another en route from Rome to Barcelona. Although all carrying Ryanair flight numbers, the 3 aircraft are part of the Malta Air fleet.

Biggest payments for airlines are 1.) Manufacturers 2.) Wages 3.) Fuel 4.) Airports / ATC / APD

Ryanair likely would be to EXIM but bearing in mind that Boeing will owe Ryanair couple of hundred million for Max issue then really not an issue, U2 will get relief via National Govts who will want to look after national airlines and airbus.
Staff will be paid but lots will be laid off which Govts will be paying as technically unemployed unless Govts do a deal, can see this happening
Fuel - Drop in fuel prices is of no benefit as airlines will have forward bought into next year, they will need to use up what they bought and as nobody flying it could be 2 yrs worth. Unless a deal done but if not using then little cash going out.
Airports / ATC................... generally owned by Govts who will hold back on demands for money to ensure airlines don't go bust. Govt aid ( with EU support) will stop shouting.

Airlines can survive to end of year in reduced capacity provided they manage the cash and Govts in relation to APD operate leniently.

An immediate shutdown leaves people stranded. A phased shutdown allows options.

If you have seen the video from my previous post, https://www.pprune.org/10707455-post206.html and you want to make your own mind up on how long this is going to go on for..... take a look here https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/ it updates daily about 20:00 UTC - very fascinating!!

The coronavirus outbreak is now officially declared a pandemic.

My thesis: The only way to avoid the bankruptcies of many airlines is to ban most if not all flights around the world. Only this can save money being burned now almost everywhere. Yes, that means long unpaid vacations, but gives a hope that there will be a workplace to return to in a few months. Controversial? Certainly, but give it some thought.

Now that is wishful thinking, try 12+ months..... Hang on tight...

When governments put in restrictions it will be very hard to drop them as any reductions in cases will reverse when restrictions are lifted.

Might well be the case that once the whole world has had a dose then it will be safe to lead a normal life. I think airlines can forget Easter and maybe the summer.

El AL has put 80 % of staff on unpaid leave. This will include 600 out of 650 pilots.

Looks like things are going to get more serious here in the UK. The PM has called for a COBRA meeting tomorrow which may see the Government escalate the UK's move into the 2nd phase (Delay).

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...elled-11955695

Trump has suspended all travel from mainland Europe to the US...

China has put in restriction to stop the country being reinfected while in February they were protesting about other countries putting restrictions in place on visitors from China. How the world has changed.

We all have something to learn from each other. The communists have shown their crazy, ugly, daft and also clever side. This is a world redefining moment.

I think what will come out of all this was the worlds reluctance to impose travel bans right at the start from China and later Italy. Putting bans in place when the genie is out of the bottle is now too late.

The US majors must be feeling a little better this morning after Trump’s ban. They after all have Chapter 11 to fall back on if the hit from vastly reduced EU-US travel is sufficiently big. Many of their European rivals don’t have that luxury. If Trump was serious about reducing the risk, and not just playing political games he wouldn’t be limiting the ban to non-US citizens (who are more likely to have been in crowded areas in Europe such as tourist spots and large hotels).

The genie was always getting out of the bottle . The plan is to spread the infections out into the summer. Shutting down the country means we could have a spike next winter. In a country that is economically farked.

China is not communist in any way shape or form. That idea went out years ago. It is capitalist just not the same capitalism that the US has but it is capitalist.

There is more state control but every state operates state control just often at different levels. In 1980's miners strike UK police were forcibly stopping cars and people and refusing them acces to an area because a strike was involved. When push comes to shove they all have their own way of doing things and will always find pliable judges willing to ok it.

Everything is farked just now questions of degrees.

Key thing now is can your country produce enough food to be self sufficient or work with its neighbours to ensure both are. We may be glad that the Russians grow wheat like there is no tomorrow because many places could be cut off.

Assumming senior leaders catch it just like rest of population then you are looking at new leaders emerging potentially in many countrys with a very different viewpoint. Additionally IF a country ends up really weakened and its neighbours decide they want it then could have some regional impacts.

Friend texted me to say Bratislava airport will be shut down so no flights entering or leaving country, not sure how accurate it is but things are noving quite quickly everywhere.

The wait and see which was not unreasonable for a few weeks has moved to a lets action, the actions of President Trump has opened the doors for many to up their actions without free of starting a stampede.

racedo, you're just a scaremonger and poor at spelling to boot!

Racedo is correct. Complete shutdown of airports, land border (except for entry by Slovak nationals) and rail.

In the last few minutes my own booking with BA has been cancelled. This was a replacement booking due to Flybe

You keep peddling this line, but who was the only Western European country to ban Chinese flights?

The issue is he can't stop US persons from returning in the general sense. They have an automatic right to entry. He could impose an involuntary quarantine on return, but that would not fit his other MOs. However, the near total ban on non-US persons who have been in the Schengen area in the last 14 days will probably keep many US citizens from returning as the flights will dry up quickly.

He is trying to keep within the law to prevent someone seeking to clog up the courts system with a challenge for the sake of a challenge.

The flights will dry up quickly as you state PLUS countrys they leaving from may impose quarantine on US citizens leaving or airlines demand results of tests. No doubt some would be on to Embassy / Congress etc demanding release and a "formal" protest made while behind the scenes an informal if infected then we have no objections will apply.

There are other ways to quarantine people returning from abroad into the US with resorting to Presidential dictat.

This sort of stuff should really be in JB, strayed well off the aviation impact now but I'll rise to the bait - just curious as to what you've based this impact on, do you know something about the expected mortality rate that the rest of us don't?

Trump has had contact and may (allegedly) have underlying conditions....just saying

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...yees-1.4201318

Norwegian cancels 4000 flights and lays off 50% of staff.

So based on PM BJ and his two experts live briefing at 5pm in UK - they were definitely indicating the daily trend getting worse at least till May and possibly June

Am I the only to have picked up on that?

Based on a 10x multiple of virus every 16 days till May before a decline in the virus just for the UK means that the regional airlines that have rushed to backfill Flybe will be going the same way?

If the time to infliction point is 90/100 days that is 2020 written off. Add another 12/24 months to gain confidence back at discounted rates and that is massive debt for the worlds airlines when we will already be in the worst recession known to mankind

Whoa don’t I sound cheery! 😎

Time to start an airline!