The first person infected in Lithuania flew Bologna-Kaunas on Ryanair.

In other news Geneva motor show canceled.

First British death in Japan. Easyjet cancelling some flights to Italy due to a lack of demand.

I assume you never leave the house during the winter, just in case you catch the flu - a far more deadly disease. After all, that would be irresponsible and without thought about your family and friends.

As I alluded to before, some of us will enjoy this world at a far more bearable population level whilst the rest of you hide indoors. Being able to explore Milan without being hit in the face with a selfie stick sounds ideal to me.

You forget the tiny-tiny difference that 20% of the flu patients don't need intensive care with mechanical ventilation to survive. Good luck with that in Milan.

Where are the facts to back this up?

In China. .

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14441008.html

The trouble is that it isn't just the virus that will be the problem. It is the fear and disruption. I have posted before that I wouldn't book a holiday in the next few months because of the disruption at least as much as the virus- my flights mike get changed I might get stuck somewhere etc.

Now I have a new problem. I often fund my holidays from very modest savings invested in stocks and shares. Those modest savings have lost the price of a bl***y good holiday in the last week- so I will think much harder about withdrawing money and may wait until there is a recovery. Either way I am like many not booking flights.

that's a fact? More like just more fake news

In that case you best lock yourself in a room with no windows and a stockpile of dry/long life foods.

It might happen that people in green jackets with guns will make you to.

Oh no, obviously influenza isn't that bad

https://i1.wp.com/emcrit.org/wp-cont...pg?w=550&ssl=1

...and just a fraction of those hospitalized needs ICU. Most of the intensive care patients survive with the support of NIV (non-invasive ventilation through face or nasal mask).

Always a bad idea not to attribute a source to claims such as that.

Dr Tedros Adhanom, Director General of WHO said recently that over 80% of those infected suffer mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms such as pneumonia/shortness of breath, 5% critical symptoms, including respiratory failure, and 2% die. He went on to say the risk of death increases the older you are.

Far easier to draw meaningful conclusions from a source such as that.

Source: The Guardian, 20th February 2020.

Spanish flu was a very different proposition. It actually killed the fit and healthy due to its immune response (cytokine storm). This seem very different in that its killing the over 80’s (CFR 15%) and those with underlying health issues.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....568bc4c95.jpeg

Yes as you have stated 21% get pneumonia, critical symptoms or die which is a far high percentage than flu.

I have a suspicion there will be many more emmetts in Cornwall this year!
As the powers that be have said, it will get worse before it gets better, hoping not too much damage is done in the meantime.

Pre internet this might have just made page 17 of the times .. to make it even more amusing hopefully they will find chlorinated chicken and smoking protects,you from it

In 2004 (from Statista) total number of Air Travellers worldwide estimate at 1.9 Billion, in 2018, 2020 was forecast to be circa 4.8 Billion. If go back to 1995 which is really the pre Net era then it was 1.5 billion. In 1995 UK pax were 115 million, in 2019 it was 195 million.

Many people's "ONLY" flight per year was to the bucket and spade destinations in the Med or Mickey Mouse land in the US. Airports were dead outside of morning / evening rotations and holidays aside from the biggies.

In 1995 it was impossible to find someone who has been to China / Japan on holidays, now while still unusual it would not be that hard to find someone who knows someone.

The net has allowed quicker info (not always good) but also open up airline travel.

In 1979 there were approximately 10,000 employed directly in UK aviation, in 2019 this estimated at 85,000 people.

This was the basis of starting the thread. Discovering impact on the industry. Already we are seeing passengers voting with their facemasks and believe this is only the start. Indebted airlines will start to have problems in the weeks ahead as cash flow dries up.

IAG already stated it cannot give ANY profit forecasts going forward, others will quickly be in this position. 3rd week of April is when airlines report their quarter results and believe many will be in a bad position.

This industry is about confidence, this no more evident that 2001, post 9/11. Additional security reassured passengers but difficult to reassure passengers when you can't see, smell, taste a potential infection. This is why it is worrying and agree that UK tourist industry is set for a potential boom. No doubt brextiteers will be cheering as a justification but downside is many job losses will also ensue from Airlines / Airports and Travel industry. It may be short term which everybody hopes but if not then who knows.

Does anyone have any stats on the no-show rates from maybe last year and a day in the last week where people are likely travelling from a low-risk area where they live to a high-risk area which is not their home ? Something like the no-show rate in the last few days for flights from London to Verona or Venice is the kind of idea I'm thinking of

I'm not interested in just a single flight - would be far more interested to understand what's happening to overall desire to travel, even when people know they will not get a refund on their ticket.

I heard an actual expert on R4 this morning. The death rate from this virus is 10x that from flu, because most of us have some immunity to flu.
And most public buildings in Milan, such as the cathedral, are closed.

I think the recent cancellations by EasyJet and BA give you your answer. From mid-March, EZY are cancelling at least 48 departures from Malpensa each week, and at least 28 from Venice. OK, these aren't strictly "no-shows", but they are an indication of the level of bookings and cancellations at present. To put it in context, this means EZY are cancelling around 20% of the departures on these routes.

US-Europe links are now being cut
American Airlines is suspending all flights from NYC and Miami to Milan Malpensa until 24 April

https://www.reuters.com/article/chin...-idUSL1N2AU01Y

Can’t help but think that one of the main reasons for the fast spread of this virus around the world is the reluctance of governments to introduce travel bans from the worst affected area. Just need to look at the cases that have come from Northern Italy travellers to the 4 corners of the world.

Meanwhile while third world countries that border Iran have closed their borders to Iran no such restrictions have been introduced here.

Yeah we should've stopped all flights from China... just like Italy.

It is a problem for all forms of overseas travel as well, we have a motorhome and it is noticeable how many others chatting on related forums say they will be staying in the UK this year and not travelling in France and the rest of Europe. On the plus side there was a picture taken by NASA in the last 48 hours which shows a significant drop in pollution levels over China!
Sadly the airline industry is not the place to be if you want long term job security, been there and got that T shirt.

I think one of the issues for airlines will be their longstanding desire to offer the best fares by booking well ahead, and then insistence that the moment you book, you cannot get your money back. This means that when there is any uncertainty about what may happen at destination (eg the cancellation of the Geneva Motor Show, mentioned above, done with 1 weeks' notice) there are going to be a lot of business travellers with now useless plane tickets. Hotels and car rental are not nearly so bad with this. This approach is very rapidly going to put people off advance booking.

Likely in the majority of business related traffic it is a business paying, not Joe Bloggs, hence while business will suffer the employees will not be out of pocket. Issue is smaller suppliers / individuals where cash is out of pocket.

If Airlines are forced to cancel the route then persons booked entitled to money back, may be easier said than done if forces airline into a cash crisis. Figure lots of airlines (business) already hoarding cash.

I figure there will be lots of people with motorhomes making sure the engine is ticking over, things are working and where necessary they can get in and out of dodge in 12 hours. Self isolation in a motorhome is easy as quite a few do it anyway in travelling around. Just find a place to park............... airport runways could be ideal place soon.

Fuel up at service stations with CC only pumps and online ordering and pickup from supermarket where shopping is left for you to bring in or meet the Tesco van at X location.

Weather raining over last 2 weeks has probably been good for stopping spread of virus outdoors, soon as in the air it gets splodeged by raindrops and onto the group.

I see people at Luton kissing and cuddling after meeting family from all over Europe. Other airports it is from travellers from all over the world. I don’t touch any surface at Luton including the hand rails on airport busses and lift buttons as I consider any airport to be high risk.

Also I am aware that I touch my nose, mouth and eyes hundreds of times a day. I am trying to reduce it but it is done without a thought.

Load factors are declining quickly
 

This is across the board; scheduled domestic and international short-haul and long-haul. Holiday sun/beach flights so far relatively unaffected. Not anecdotal, fact. Most unfortunate for all friends and former colleagues in aviation and related industries. It looks like the effects will be far more widespread than aviation alone. (Over-reaction IMHO; that IS anecdotal)

Delta is also suspending JFK-MXP until 1st of May
https://www.forbes.com/sites/catheri.../#71ca39f65382

TK is also suspending all flights to Italy (along with Iran,Iraq,China,S.Korea)

https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-...ry-29-update-2

What will happen if the virus gets out of control in rest of Europe,like it did in Italy? Will they suspend all european flights? Cases in Germany, France and Spain are rising rapidly everyday..

Let us suppose for a moment that Europe goes into some sort of lockdown comparable to the current state in China.
What happens to places like Mallorca or Corfu, islands whose economies are almost completely dependent on millions of sun-starved visitors from northern Europe coming to visit ?

EZY, RYR, WZZ stocks are dropping, they have cancelled or reduced flights to north Italy and other destinations, some have frozen their recruitment.

Is not like in the past, during the last economic crisis the low cost where still growing due the low tickets price, now pax don't want to fly either for prevention or hysteria.

Is the reason for stability in sun/beach flights that these have greater tendency to be booked well in advance? And that actually over the next few weeks as later bookings dry up these too will decline?

I think the BBC is guilty of not offering a proportionate narrative when reporting the likely effects of the virus becoming widespread in the UK.

Today on their website topic 'What are the symptoms?' they write: 'It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough. After a week it leads to a shortness of breath and some patients may require hospital treatment.'

The 20th February 2020 analysis from the WHO China Joint Mission on Coronavirus states that of 55,924 cases studied 87.9% had a fever, 67.7% a dry cough and 18.6% shortness of breath.

So less than 1 in 5 patients suffered shortness of breath. Reading the BBC report you would be led to think that everyone suffers shortness of breath - a quite alarming prospect.

While obviously a very serious situation is evolving, sloppy reporting is something that I would have expected the BBC to avoid.

Until the global media change the narrative to:
'There is a nasty strain of virus trotting around the globe, wash your hands often, sanitise if you can, don't shake hands, but keep calm and carry on' then there is little chance of this situation not changing the airline landscape drastically... I'm all for freedom of speech but when there is no mechanism to control the internet/media reporting and spread of information then there is little chance of containing the panic and fear which leads to a lack of confidence in the travelling public and corporates banning all travel through fear of the legal repercussions if you knowingly send someone for a meeting using airline travel that then turned sour! - Instead - work from home...

Unfortunately, the fixed costs of airlines are not up for negotiation and the burn rate of cash is eye-watering even if you get a 3-month sabbatical on the aircraft lease payments - trading insolvently in the hope this is a short-lived problem is a fool's game that only makes the problem worse when you do go bust.

Investor confidence in anything airline related for the next 5-10 years will be long gone, and lessors will now change their operating models to take account of events like this.

Tighten those straps were in for a bit of severe turbulence!

LH emailed to offer European travel on the next three months to have Triple M&M. Even I had not just been on holiday, the answer would be No.

This is going to be serious. But it will be another six weeks before we can see what the story is.

There is a great deal of (possibly) unintended but nevertheless inaccurate reporting about this virus which is fueling the panic. For sure all form of businesses are going to suffer the consequences, many of which could have been avoided. The outcome may be that the virus may kill more businesses than people!