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racedo 11th Feb 2020 11:37

Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
 
This is NOT about Coronavirus, there is already a thread elsewhere. Not able to use JB as was a naughty boy (alledgedly).

This is about its direct impact on Air Travel.

Black Death killed between 30-60% of people in Europe when it hit over a 7 year period, it originated in China and spread across the Steppes with the invading hordes / trading that occurred then. Last year a city close to latter day Moscow was show to have been almost Ground Zero where the Black Death really took hold in a European city for the first time. Human to Human contact, poor hygiene and everything else caused it to spread throught Europe. Rats don't walk thousands of miles, people did.

Currently as the actions of BA and other airlines have shown that closing air routes may reduce the spread. Already in Wuhan they realise that 5 million people are not in the city as they already left for Chinese New Year, stats borne out by Baidu Maps (Google map equiv in China) show how people moved in the weeks preceding the shut down of Wuhan, this mirrors the spread in China.

Now instead of 2-3 years across the Steppes where the Virus mutates and changes a Virus can move from China to Europe in 12 hours. The Airline industry which has opened up connectivity for trade has also opened it up for the spread of diseases. This is both good and bad as yes people will die, but in 2014/15 29k people died in UK because of Flu.

However the spread of Virus's quicker also means the are known about, examined and actioned quicker rather than 2-3 years in mutation. Spanish flu killed over a 3 year period rather than a single year, on of my ancestors died of it and spoke with some Balkan friends recently who remember grandparents talking of 2 neighbours left of a family of 15 when it hit their village.

So the impact on Air Travel, China has already been massively impacted and likely will see a net reduction v 2019 of the people ho will fly internationally / domestically. This likewise will impact on its neighbours.

In Europe in 28 days if the virus is worse, > 1 Million people infected and 10,000 dead then Governments will need to start considering whether isolation from outsiders needs to be considered. Having 200 people sitting in an aluminium tube breathing the same air for a couple of hours will not be hygienic (it is not now).

Governments may start to take coordinated actions in shutting down air routes as a means of halting the spread of the infection.It is clear that Governments are already looking at this as a drastic measure but discommoding Sandra from her hen weekend in Prague may be least worst option.

Travel is about confidence, we saw this post 9/11 where flight bookings collapsed, Ryanair in Europe bet the farm, rolled out 1p / 1c flights, got ridiculed in the media BUT got people back onto planes in weeks. People scared but a 1p flight to Dublin is still a bargain so let's go.

A drastic action such as shutting down flights would I believe destroy the industry as confidence is ficke and would ebb away overnight likely losing 20-30 of people who currently fly. But isolation and saving thousands of lives may be least worst option for many countries.

Which airlines would be left would be anybodys guess but believe it would take Airline Industry 10 years to recover.

pee 13th Feb 2020 16:30

No answers so far? Let's face it, the impact can be very dramatic if the virus continues to spread. And indeed, several airlines already had to take it very seriously. As an example, read this: Finnair eyes pilot layoffs due to coronavirus.

LGS6753 14th Feb 2020 09:22

I have sold my holding in IAG on the basis that the Coronavirus will affect air travel negatively. I intend to buy them back in due course (hopefully at a lower price).

HZ123 14th Feb 2020 14:54

More adverse at this time might be the fall in bookings for cruises ? Also those that might be affected may be the older persons whom cruise ships rely on. I guess we must wait to see what happens when it hits the USA ! Either way I expect there to be a decease in leisure air travel, wait to see who starts making offers.

PAXfips 15th Feb 2020 09:39

How air travel might "spread" COVID, study from RKI (Germany's CDC so to say):
Route Analysis & Effective Distance | Event Horizon --- COVID-19

pee 21st Feb 2020 08:08

Most recent estimation: Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn. To my understanding it is based on an assumption that the viral germ will be prevented from spreading across Europe or the US. Too optimistic perhaps?

racedo 21st Feb 2020 20:35


Originally Posted by pee (Post 10692682)
Most recent estimation: Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn. To my understanding it is based on an assumption that the viral germ will be prevented from spreading across Europe or the US. Too optimistic perhaps?

Bit too late as it is already here.

Question now is containment.

There are 2 scenarios.

A national self isolation of everybody when / if it does take hold. It will work BUT it will mean everybody goes into that mode and hope it will burn out, people develop immunity. Problem is that there is not enough food / resources to allow that happen. A 30 day containment potentially but a 180 day economic loss.

Second scenario is let it take hold and try and contain but expect to lose 2 % of the population in worst case scenario.

I am painting a black picture but losing 2 % of population doesn't sound drastic until you realise in some areas it could be 20% and in other areas 0.0001%. Everybody hopes to be in the survivors but likely would be under martial law for stability for a while

OTOH it may blow over as others have done in decades past.

OTOH it is a flu like virus and in Uk in 2014/15 30,000 died in a bad year.

usbhub 21st Feb 2020 21:48

Finally the coronavirus will by spread in the entire world by planes and will kill 27.7 of the world population above 50.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

Sobelena 22nd Feb 2020 10:06

[/QUOTE]Finally the coronavirus will by spread in the entire world by planes and will kill 27.7 of the world population above 50.[QUOTE]

Conspiracy theorists will have a field day with that. A cull of the old to address the ever growing problem with pensions? :E

LGS6753 22nd Feb 2020 22:30


Finally the coronavirus will by spread in the entire world by planes and will kill 27.7 of the world population above 50.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Someone needs some maths tuition here. What the above chart means is that the virus kills 14.8% of the over-80s that it affects. It also kills 8.0% of those in their seventies who contract it, and so on. The 27.7% is therefore a huge exaggeration of the virus's impact.

magyarflyer 23rd Feb 2020 02:13

Those numbers are totally eschewed
from the Chinese medical,papers at least 20 to 25% of the patients in China required intensive care (ventilator, oxygen, iv, antibiotics) and that is in a country that has built hospitals in 10 days and military and civilian medical personnel that have not refused to participate and die in the course of stopping the spread
now in countries outside China even in USA there are not enough ventilators, oxygen masks, Icu beds and i can assure you that medical personnel are going to flee from getting exposed to the virus, just imagine that, maybe is time to buy an oxygen bottle, masks and survival rations and get away from major urban areas. I asked a couple of my colleagues here (I am a retired md) who are active practicing and the answer was in the negative, not willing to take the risks for the benefits (ie risks) implied.

ZFT 23rd Feb 2020 07:25

Finally the coronavirus will by spread in the entire world by planes and will kill 27.7 of the world population above 50.


Conspiracy theorists will have a field day with that. A cull of the old to address the ever growing problem with pensions? :E
Funny enough I thought that too. Sorry but I intend to screw up his 'stats'

pee 23rd Feb 2020 08:50

While nobody wants to create any unnecessary panic around the world, most physicians do realize that Corona virus may well become pandemic very soon, no conspiracies involved. Let me return to the air travel now. Over two weeks ago the National Geographic has tried to make a preliminary analysis: Hereís how coronavirus spreads on a planeóand the safest place to sit. Now the impact on travel. As magyarflyer has noticed some medical personnel will flee from getting exposed to the virus. What about the flying personnel, would't they? What about the governments waking up to protect their citizens and banning flights?
I hope that
COVID-19 can still be blocked, but the facts are worrying, the impact would be huge.

alm1 23rd Feb 2020 15:59

Reportedly Israel banned all tourists from Italy from entry. This should start affecting European airlines now in a major way.

LTNman 24th Feb 2020 04:24

Starting to think that it is only a matter of time before air travel is suspended in much of the world including Europe and the U.K. Even if it is still sanctioned will passengers want to sit in a tube if this virus unleashes its full potential.

davidjohnson6 24th Feb 2020 04:34

LTNman - next weekend, I am meant to be flying for leisure to Istanbul. Huge airport with passengers from all over the world. There are also plenty of pax connecting there from Iran due to sanctions. Non-refundable ticket, but beginning to think going is maybe not a great idea. I'm wondering how many people in the world are just abandoning ticketed non-refundable trips...

On a separate note, AirNZ are cancelling their Seoul route from 08March until the end of June. I'm wondering if later this week we will see mass cancellations by airlines of routes to South Korea

AirportPlanner1 24th Feb 2020 05:59


Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 (Post 10694531)
LTNman - next weekend, I am meant to be flying for leisure to Istanbul. Huge airport with passengers from all over the world. There are also plenty of pax connecting there from Iran due to sanctions. Non-refundable ticket, but beginning to think going is maybe not a great idea. I'm wondering how many people in the world are just abandoning ticketed non-refundable trips...

On a separate note, AirNZ are cancelling their Seoul route from 08March until the end of June. I'm wondering if later this week we will see mass cancellations by airlines of routes to South Korea

How many people in the world and how many have corona? Chances of getting it next week in Istanbul are negligible. And what does Iran have to do with anything?

LTNman 24th Feb 2020 06:27

Nothing to do with how many have the virus it is all about how many could get the virus and what precautions people start to take like curbing air travel.

Iran is the latest hot spot with many countries closing their borders with the country. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...160135283.html

Austria has shut down rail links with Italy. This is starting to get serious.

Jetscream 32 24th Feb 2020 11:04

Black Swan:

Pandoras box is fully open and this will probably tip the worlds greatest economies into recession or something close to it, corporates will almost immediately start cancelling flights for employees and if they are all booked on full flex refundable tickets, the airlines that use that money for cash flow and fixed costs in advance on release from BSP or card merchants will quickly start calling in for more investor money or start going bust.

Europe will see a major swing in the profitability of even the richest LCC's and it will happen with such speed that nobody will be able to mitigate against it. Fixed costs of airlines are the killer - banks and lessors are going to be in fear of default and it will change the landscape of airline travel forever I think.

In the days of the Black Death virus, we didn't have Twitter, Facebook and instant media attention that is stoking the fear, the narrative versus flu (which is still the biggest killer) is strong enough as we don't have a vaccine or anything for Covid-19 yet....

As an airline exec, I'd be super focused right now on damage limitation, having the very best lawyers speaking with lessors and pre-briefing all of our staff that we may be forced to suspend operations and what the outcomes of that will mean for shareholders and staff.

This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!

racedo 24th Feb 2020 21:23


Originally Posted by alm1 (Post 10694230)
Reportedly Israel banned all tourists from Italy from entry. This should start affecting European airlines now in a major way.

It only takes a single major 1st World country to ban incoming air travel and pretty much everybody will follow the leader. I wonder how many weeks are we away from it. Yup the whole economy will fall into recession BUT if it becomes a real pandemic then closing borders early and losing 1% v 10% of the population is a gamble worth taking.

Even if it burns itself out quickly then Govt who acted first is in a better place, problem is that next time Govts will panic even quicker.

Some Irish friends emailed me and tongue in cheek (well this week it is) said come on over, drive a transit, fill with dried food etc, stay in it on ferry (hmmm) and when come you can isolate yourself close by for 4 weeks, we will leave the beers etc outside the door but will ensure you have Wifi / Netflix code. Told them give it a month and we will see.

If happens then Air Travel is gone for 10 years, people simply will be scared to fly and travel.

racedo 24th Feb 2020 21:25


Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 (Post 10694734)
This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!

In truth people will happily lose their jobs if it came to it V their lives. Hopefully it never becomes a choice we need to consider.

alm1 25th Feb 2020 04:53


Originally Posted by alm1 (Post 10694230)
Reportedly Israel banned all tourists from Italy from entry. This should start affecting European airlines now in a major way.

I am sorry but apparently my source was wrong. I see planes still going from Bergamo to Tel Aviv.

Still in my country there are plenty of populist calls to ban air travel from Italy. We also have a basketball match here in my city on Friday with Milan team with usual attendance of 15000. This is still not canceled but there are plenty of calls to not allow any fans from Italy.

eu01 25th Feb 2020 07:18

Btw. My son happens to be in Italy right now and he sent me a photo
......
What if you checked the inventory at your nearest store?

mike current 25th Feb 2020 10:57


Originally Posted by eu01 (Post 10695328)
Btw. My son happens to be in Italy right now and he sent me a photo
......
What if you checked the inventory at your nearest store?

5 million people caught the regular flu this winter in Italy and 400 died. Long before we had heard of CV. If paranoia or overreacting make people apply better hygiene habits it can't be a bad thing.

Sober Lark 25th Feb 2020 14:39


Originally Posted by mike current (Post 10695482)
5 million people caught the regular flu this winter in Italy and 400 died. Long before we had heard of CV. If paranoia or overreacting make people apply better hygiene habits it can't be a bad thing.

European heat wave of 2003, record high temperatures across Europe in 2003 that resulted in at least 30,000 deaths (more than 14,000 in France alone).

LTNman 25th Feb 2020 15:25

So the world is over reacting which is what the deputy health minister of Iran was saying until he caught it as he didn’t believe in quarantine.

racedo 25th Feb 2020 16:00


Originally Posted by Sober Lark (Post 10695646)
European heat wave of 2003, record high temperatures across Europe in 2003 that resulted in at least 30,000 deaths (more than 14,000 in France alone).

NHS indicated that 30,000 people died in UK in 2014/15 winter because of Flu.

racedo 25th Feb 2020 16:04


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10695679)
So the world is over reacting which is what the deputy health minister of Iran was saying until he caught it as he didnít believe in quarantine.

I think the world is attempting to take reasonable precautions over what could be something small / medium or large.

Best case is nobody dies in uk, medium case is 15,000 infected and 300 deaths, worst case is 15 million infected and 1 million die. Faced with this Governments are trying to manage a line between everything is ok and let's all panic.

LTNman 25th Feb 2020 16:26

And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly? Already hotels are being quarantined in Tenerife and Austria. If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism? No wonder airline stocks are plummeting. Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.

22/04 25th Feb 2020 17:43

I have to say I wouldn't book a holiday in a few months at the moment - not so much because of the disease but because of the potential my holiday won't go as planned due to restrictions etc. Wait and see. Not for 10 years though - six months to a year maybe

racedo 25th Feb 2020 20:08


Originally Posted by 22/04 (Post 10695803)
I have to say I wouldn't book a holiday in a few months at the moment - not so much because of the disease but because of the potential my holiday won't go as planned due to restrictions etc. Wait and see. Not for 10 years though - six months to a year maybe

I think your view will be the one picked by many people, lets wait and see, hold back, then stay at home on the basis of better safe than sorry. This will be disastrous for travel industry who will have to lay off thousands and economically will impact quite a lot of countries.

Ultimately it is about confidence, when people start to worry then they alter behaviour, like in a recession when even though job safe, not in financial difficulty people decide not to renew the 2 cars and wait another year or two, hold back on consumer spending.

Potentially a real negative could be xenophobia where immediately anybody foreign looking is suspected of being a carrier, this is irrational but people act irrationally when afraid of the inknown.

alm1 25th Feb 2020 20:23

There is one more problem. I have checked my travel insurance - epidemics and pandemics are specifically not covered. Getting stuck somewhere could very soon end up very expensive.

racedo 25th Feb 2020 20:24


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10695730)
And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly?

Zero pretty much and industry will collapse.


If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism?
It virtually ceases to exist.


Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.
Me too

BUT if doesn't and Govt have to go for a shut down, what happens ?
People won't be working so mortgages get unpaid, banks will demand payment, well in reality nobody working in banks so nothing will be happening, what happens to cash / food etc.
Almost like the 1930 great depresssion again. Fingers crossed weather kills virus and no other Black Swan event occurs but Locusts in Africa / Asia could be interesting.

racedo 25th Feb 2020 20:44


Originally Posted by alm1 (Post 10695912)
There is one more problem. I have checked my travel insurance - epidemics and pandemics are specifically not covered. Getting stuck somewhere could very soon end up very expensive.

True BUT getting stuck somewhere may not be the worst thing to happen. Imagine you stuck in a place, flying in and out banned, home place becomes a hot zone and you in a place which is infection free.

The how they hell am I going to pay for it becomes less of a worry and you just hope on the kindness of the people where you are. If you have a skill which helps the then even better but even if not the people there have 2 options. One is kick all the non natives out, two include them as all in the same boat. Humanity has dealt with this before in times of war or pandemic.

Those who kick everybody out will find history judging them very harshly but I have a belief in people, look at the thousands who shielded people in WW2 and other events.

LTNman 25th Feb 2020 23:23

My daughter has booked a holiday to Minorca a few days ago. This health event is moving so fast I would suggested now that she deferred any plans for travel outside the U.K. Not so much about the fear of catching the virus but getting caught up in a lock down. So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?

racedo 26th Feb 2020 01:15


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10696029)
My daughter has booked a holiday to Minorca a few days ago. This health event is moving so fast I would suggested now that she deferred any plans for travel outside the U.K. Not so much about the fear of catching the virus but getting caught up in a lock down.

Reasonable because always can take another holiday and at the moment it is reaction to events.


So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?
Ultimately Spanish Govt as they are preventing you from leaving hotel for Public Health reasons. Same way as people shut off in Liverpool / Milton Keynes after flying in from China.

The nightmare scenario is people flying in via 3rd and 4th countries / cities. Keep quiet about any illness, not disclosing how they came to a country and leaving a trail that cannot be quickly followed.

I can't remember the book but was mass infection in the US, person visiting LA but disease spread from Las Vegas, person had joined someone else for a weekend in Vegas, never used any cards to spend money / registered at a hotel. After weekend back to LA and they died there but gap was why not disease in LA but in Vegas.

840 26th Feb 2020 09:40

I've just become aware of a large multi-national company, with employee numbers that run well into 6 figures that has instituted an immediate work travel ban (with the exception of getting people already traveling home). This is when the financial consequences for aviation really kick in.

racedo 26th Feb 2020 09:58


Originally Posted by 840 (Post 10696338)
I've just become aware of a large multi-national company, with employee numbers that run well into 6 figures that has instituted an immediate work travel ban (with the exception of getting people already traveling home). This is when the financial consequences for aviation really kick in.

If it is a one off and nobody follows then maybe, however likely the message will permeate quickly and others will do similar.

HR friend did a risk analysis of 3 people travelling to Taiwan last week. Risk was acceptable and they travelled. She has been in Northern Italy twice in last 2 weeks so it was an Oh SH*T.

racedo 26th Feb 2020 10:02


Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 (Post 10694734)
Black Swan:

Pandoras box is fully open and this will probably tip the worlds greatest economies into recession or something close to it, corporates will almost immediately start cancelling flights for employees and if they are all booked on full flex refundable tickets, the airlines that use that money for cash flow and fixed costs in advance on release from BSP or card merchants will quickly start calling in for more investor money or start going bust.

Europe will see a major swing in the profitability of even the richest LCC's and it will happen with such speed that nobody will be able to mitigate against it. Fixed costs of airlines are the killer - banks and lessors are going to be in fear of default and it will change the landscape of airline travel forever I think.

In the days of the Black Death virus, we didn't have Twitter, Facebook and instant media attention that is stoking the fear, the narrative versus flu (which is still the biggest killer) is strong enough as we don't have a vaccine or anything for Covid-19 yet....

As an airline exec, I'd be super focused right now on damage limitation, having the very best lawyers speaking with lessors and pre-briefing all of our staff that we may be forced to suspend operations and what the outcomes of that will mean for shareholders and staff.

This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!

I think the ecnomic impact could be considerable BUT Govt and Central Banks may take a freeze on loan repayments etc to prevent lots of places folding. Banks foreclosing on lots of businesses like 10 years ago happened because there were others who could buy or pick up the slack. When the whole economy is like that it is a different position.

eu01 26th Feb 2020 10:32

Does anyone have knowledge concerning no shows on flights to Italy? How much does it differ from usual numbers?


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