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I don't think you are too far off the mark there..... There will be a pivot change in how air travel is booked, operated and delivered. As long as ACMI operators can keep their heads above water I can see an exciting new business model coming out that we as a society have readily accepted in other forms of transport. Social acceptance and change are the drivers of technology.
Watch out aviation..! |
I can see an exciting new business model coming out that we as a society have readily accepted in other forms of transport |
Spain plans partial lockdown from Monday, the draft of an official decree seen by Reuters reveals some facts:
All public transport would be curtailed, with airline, train, bus and boat operators told they need to cut their services by at least half and that any plane, train, bus or other means of transport can only be a third full. |
France now essentially on lockdown. Hardly anywhere left now for European airlines to go to
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It now looks as though the skies over Europe, and much of the rest of the world, will be empty for the next few weeks or months. Under normal circumstances, few airlines could survive such an event.
I suspect we will soon see a G7 or G20 meeting (virtual, of course), to decide a common approach to the fall out from Covid-19. I also suspect that this will entail some multi-lateral agreement to extend contracts, give interest payment holidays, and preserve currently constituted legal entities. It would entail World Bank/IMF support for money printing which, if done in a co-ordinated manner could have a neutral effect on currency values and inflation. The US, Japan, UK, China and the EU would be the prime movers. With that sort of agreement, this could be an uncomfortable, but temporary blip. |
Let us not forget what Ryanair has said on state aid. Money for one, money for all.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/202...nair-on-flybe/ |
I believe WW is in full retirement from March 31st.
The difference is between bailing out a basket case which no amount of cash was likely to save with its owners not putting anything in and a whole industry. The loss of the airline inustry long term is not just some jobs at IAG and airports but the whole tourism and hospitality industry. |
Yes, that was an attempt at irony there. I don't want to see any casualties, IAG included. Just pointing out the hypocrisy of WW's rhetoric to invite failure at FlyBe.
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I am with you on the temporary blip, park the long term debt with a payment holiday. Lessors who don't play ball then let the access to funding die. The issue with most companies will be the day to day cash. If you have to refund pretty much all your flights fopr next 3 months then you may have no cash to just pay people.
You have to wonder is the someone doing all this with a plan.... probably not but everything crashing. |
I don't think anybody was inviting or wanted failure at FlyBe, it however was pretty clear within aviation industry that it was walking dead that no amount of cash would have turned it around. As hard as it is letting a business fail it can often be the only way that other businesses can survive. It isn't easy for those who lose out but walking dead companies with incompetent management do nobody any favours.
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Look on the bright side, Greta Thunberg must be smiling!
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
(Post 10714033)
Such as???
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Air France needs to stop flying back and forth to Africa. If one of those god forsaken former colonies gets the virus, it'll be imported from France. Once it takes afoot in Africa, well.... I don't want to think about it.
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In a stark message, industry body Airlines UK said the government's "prevarication" and "bean counting" had to stop. "We're talking about the future of UK aviation - one of our world-class industries - and unless the government pulls itself together who knows what will be left of it once we get out of this mess," it added. Airline bosses have been talking to ministers. Last week, senior figures in the industry were said to be "livid" that there were no emergency measures for the aviation sector in the budget, whereas most other sectors of the economy received billions of pounds of support. The government said in a statement that it recognises the difficulties UK airlines are facing. "We are engaging with the sector's leadership to support workers, businesses and passengers," it said. "We have influenced the European Commission to relax flight slots and HMRC is ready to help all businesses, including airlines, and self-employed individuals, experiencing temporary financial difficulties due to coronavirus." |
American Airlines will now slash their flights by 75%....
https://www.airlive.net/alert-americ...apacity-by-75/ |
It's already there.
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I suspect IAG would rather explore all other options than go to Governments for support.
If we're talking about double standards, don't forget that Sir Richard Branson said that BA should not get any state support when it was in trouble after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. |
The chances of this thing being over in the near term is pretty remote: So without wanting to incur a wrath of abuse..
In the UK would you rather support a ‘stipend’ payable to airline / aerospace employees and let the airlines fail - ie look after the people with a time limit of say 12 months / or do you want to be selective and effectively nationalise some airlines, airports, handling agents, even though there will be little or no traffic? Many industries will suffer terribly and very quickly and the govt could elect to make a stipend payable to people in order to reduce the risk of social unrest whilst keeping people relatively compliant with how the govt wants to resolve things going forward. Investors would lose money for sure but the small print clearly states your capital may be at risk..... New innovative airlines will be formed the second confidence starts to grow and it wont take long to see a new pivot in airline travel - there will be no shortage of hardware to choose from that’s for sure. I would expect most train franchises in the UK to be nationalised within the next 60 days... So a precedent does exist in transport! It will not be a quick process to get scheduled business or holiday traffic back to levels that are expected or required to service the debt and structure of many international airlines, so they have to completely restructure if they can in time or go bust and then allow innovation, technology and a pivot change in creating a new way to operate in the airline business. So do you save the people or save the company - I’d rather save the people - even if they are unemployed if the govt is contributing say £1500 per month for 12 months - they will not be homeless.... It’s not like they are going to be snapped up by other airlines currently! ?? |
Originally Posted by Jetscream 32
(Post 10715075)
.
So do you save the people or save the company - I’d rather save the people - even if they are unemployed if the govt is contributing say £1500 per month for 12 months - they will not be homeless.... It’s not like they are going to be snapped up by other airlines currently! This will be the dilemma as if Airline know they are on their own then why bother paying suppliers is you are going bust and trying to hold onto cash. Each of these supplier will be struggling anyway as work will have dried up but add in a customer who will never pay and there will be lots more jobs lost. Restarting and thinking new airlines will pop up is a no chance for a bank who has just got burned by a major airline for £300 million, lessors will be the same demanding huge deposits because they are in the same position and the old suppliers will be no longer in business because they lost their house / business etc. The least worst option is to say to Airlines, hold onto you staff at a reduced pay rate, Govt will fund this for 6 months to prevent thousands being shoved on the dole, lots of people seeking mega assistance from council for housing / mortgage and food banks. At least a reboot will be quicker because the majority of people should still be around, if at Gatwick you said to a big Airline, tough then lots of people living and renting in local area would give up and try to head for home. This is not just airline but the thousands who work in retail / airport services . Aside from devastating local economy in short term in the long term where are all those people who currently work in airport going to come from in an area with pretty much negative unemployment. |
With the way the situation is developing, I think the sensible approach for UK airports over the next few months is going to be a mixture of consolidation and temporary closure.
Having multiple terminals open at Manchester or Heathrow for example will simply not be tenable with what will in all likelihood be just a handful of flights each day. I know different airlines and groups are clustered to particular terminals, but with the low numbers of passengers being handled - probably not more than a few hundred per day at Heathrow for example - some form of manual check-in could be instigated. It simply won’t be worth having shops, restaurants, bars, duty free, check-ins, toilets etc open in every terminal and there probably wouldn’t be enough people available to staff them anyway. Whilst I would imagine airports such as MAN, GLA, LHR etc will remain open, it would be more cost-effective to concentrate any flights that are still operating to these airports, with the likes of Bristol, Southampton, Exeter, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle, Liverpool etc being closed and mothballed to all but emergency traffic for a few months. Staff would still need to be paid, but it simply wouldn’t be financially viable to stock an airport with fresh food and other supplies if there is virtually no traffic. According to data published today by University College London comparing transmission infection rates in various countries, using Italy as the ‘benchmark’, the UK is approximately 14 days behind Italy - so the whole landscape will almost certainly be very different in a few weeks from now. Taking such measures may seem drastic, but it would hopefully allow more of our airports and airlines to survive the coming events. I think it’s quite likely that some of UK airlines and airports will not survive, at least in their present form, but I’m sure that there will be a gradual return to something nearer normality later in the year. However I do think investors and financial institutions including insurers will be very wary of the airline industry, and it could be many, many years before we see traffic return to previous levels - if ever with the current growing awareness of environmental considerations. |
Italian Airforce yesterday................... with key point in Nessum Dorma 'Now more than ever, lest's be a team, together with strenght, together we can beat this" Hate it when it rain indoors. |
Saw a remarkable picture earlier on HKIA of aircraft parked bumper to bumper on taxiways as all contact stands were filled up. How BA are going to manage this at LHR in the next few weeks is going to be something as they rely on 50 aircraft overnighting downroute. There is going to be shortage of tarmac in many airports in the next few days.
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How much space do BA have available in Cardiff ? Perhaps they could use Doncaster or Exeter instead ? Prestwick ? Would the MoD / RAF be amenable to BA paying rent on space somewhere ?
No real need for BA to be parking aircraft at Heathrow or Gatwick if expected to be on the ground for several days or longer |
Prestwick's secondary runway is now being used for parking and a NOTAM has it closed for the next week. Three VS A340s have arrived for storage.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-10-000-jobs
Thanks to TartinTom on this SAS cutting jobs hopefully temporarily, as Social welfare system is way different then majority of employees should lose little income if based in Scandanavia. |
So let’s look at Easyjet and if they need state aid. Who should provide it and why? Much of their fleet is on the Austrian register. Most of their routes are between EU nations and don’t touch the UK. Is it down to the UK to keep the EU connected and keep EU citizens employed?
Same applies to Ryanair who has moved much of their fleet off the Irish register and only a small proportion of their services touch the republic. Not even sure if any heavy engineering is done in Ireland so we could just be talking about their HQ that is Irish based so how many jobs is that then? |
Where do Easyjet and Ryanair pay taxes ?
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If they have good accountants, probably nowhere.
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Happy Monday campers,
Tomorrow will likely see the number of cases outside of China be greater than inside... probably 83,000+ tomorrow, on Wednesday we will break the 100,000 mark and in 14 days from now outside of China will have exceeded 500,000 - at that point, I'm not expecting any airlines to be flying anywhere in the world apart from domestic China / Russia and a few others. The peak of cases will move like a barometer for each country - where it stabilises in some it will rapidly grow in others, BUT when that number reaches over 1 million cases in 19 days time on the 3rd of April I think it will dawn on most in this industry that there is no possible recovery for 2020, depending on WHEN we reach the inflection point of the virus outside of China depends when plans can be made to start re-introducing travel to some countries, however it will still take another 90 days from the date of inflection point to see a true downward curve. In 2021 as the worst of it is over depending on if we have a vaccine produced and available and depending on if its an annual virus like the flu will depend on how airlines come back to life. 2021 will see the year of 'Flag State Carriers' coming back to life but in a completely different model and not run like Alitalia etc. Stay safe everyone and good luck! |
Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
(Post 10715234)
How much space do BA have available in Cardiff ? Perhaps they could use Doncaster or Exeter instead ? Prestwick ? Would the MoD / RAF be amenable to BA paying rent on space somewhere ?
No real need for BA to be parking aircraft at Heathrow or Gatwick if expected to be on the ground for several days or longer |
Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
(Post 10715436)
do Easyjet and Ryanair pay taxes ?
David |
They do, millions every year or does Employer National Insurance at circa 15% of an employees pay in UK not count ? or Vat ?
They make profits but are not unsurprisingly allowed to offset the billions they are spending on capital investment. Easyjet added 58 news planes in last financial year, Ryanair added 45 new planes. BUT in 2019 Easyjets tax charge was £78 million on profits, Ryanair was €63 million................... all this is available in their published accounts, |
Can't understand why people think airlines/airports should be supported by Govt. ALL industries are affected and many companies will go bust - hotels, restaurants, transport companies, taxi drivers etc for sure
This isn't a single industry issue - a global meltdown is more like it I'd expect EVERY airline in the world to go into administration and it may be a couple of years before we see (much reduced) restoration of air travel to any thing lie decent levels. We have to face it - this is going to be "transformational" and a lot of what has taken years to build up is going on the scrap heap in a few weeks. |
Austrian and Lauda to suspend all flights
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Talking about negligence and irresponsibility, I'd like to recall one of the earlier messages of this thread
Originally Posted by nwoody2001
(Post 10697207)
Me....!
There are some amazing deals around, it' is a fantastic time to be a traveller https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/sta...44848988188672 |
”Ryanair expects the result of these restrictions will be the grounding of the majority of its aircraft fleet across Europe over the next seven to 10 days,” it says. “In those countries where the fleet is not grounded, social-distancing restrictions may make flying to all intents and purposes, impractical, if not, impossible.” For April and May it expects to reduce its seat capacity by up to 80%, and cannot rule out a full grounding of the fleet. The group is now taking action to reduce its operating costs and boost its cash flows by grounding surplus aircraft, deferring all capital expenditure and share buybacks, freezing recruitment and discretionary spending, implementing voluntary leave for staff, temporarily suspending employment contracts, and reducing staff working hours and payments. ”Ryanair is a resilient airline group, with a very strong balance sheet, and substantial cash liquidity,” states group chief executive Michael O’Leary. “We can, and will, with appropriate and timely action, survive through a prolonged period of reduced or even zero flight schedules, so that we are adequately prepared for the return to normality, which will come about sooner rather than later as EU governments take unprecedented action to restrict the spread of Covid-19.” The airline points out that it has a “strong liquidity” position, with cash and equivalents of €4 billion ($4.4 billion) as of 12 March. Flight - Ryanair may cancel entire April-May schedule |
Egypt shuts at midday Thursday - no more intl traffic
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Ryanair to ground almost its ENTIRE fleet...
80% of flights are cancelled with the possibility of all flights to be cancelled imminently. https://www.airlive.net/breaking-rya...eing-737-800s/ Norwegian to lay off 90% of its staff... https://www.airlive.net/breaking-nor...f-90-of-staff/ |
Originally Posted by eu01
(Post 10716067)
Talking about negligence and irresponsibility, I'd like to recall one of the earlier messages of this thread
Simon Calder, are you still looking for travel opportunities? |
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