I also question the open borders we seem to still have with the world but when I watch the live Prime Minister updates flanked with his scientific advisers they give compelling reasons why they are right.

The Irish Republic have shut down schools etc for two weeks so then what? There will then be an extension after extension and still the population will catch it because the virus will still be out there when the ban is lifted.

They have to give the air of confidence even though they will have diffeent ideas.

Irish Republic will not be opening schools this side of Easter, add in 2 weeks extended from March, then Easter holidays and they are at 3rd week of April. Irish secondary schools close at end of May and primary school at end of June. In Foot and Mouth disease issue 16-17 years ago they got everybody involved in ensuring they knew how bad it could be.

The delay is to stretch out as long as possible possible infection because then medical teams have a longer time to cope rather than a massive upswing where triage comes in abruptly where if over 60's it is just passive care until you die or recover. Medical teams cannot go 24/7, they will get infected also so need to look at resources you have and manage them.

This thinking presumes that locking the country down completely actually achieves the most beneficial 'big picture' outcome. Delaying the inevitable onset of C-19 too long comes with unintended consequences.

We need to think this through logically. The objective is not to delay the spread of C-19 indefinitely. It is to try and induce an extended flattened peak of cases through the Summer months at a manageable rate. This brings several advantages. Firstly, the younger and fitter demographic are best equipped to fight off the infection independently in warmer Summer conditions. Secondly, the NHS is less under pressure from more familiar admissions in Summer than it is during Winter months when regular Winter flu (with broadly similar mortality rates and risk-groups) does its worst. Hence more beds / staff / resources available to cope with C-19 cases in Summer. Even the most vulnerable groups have enhanced chances of successful recovery in Summer conditions as opposed to Winter. A phenomenally successful campaign of containment which pushes the main C-19 onset back to November would be a disaster in reality. Peak-infection during Winter months must be avoided. So - whilst the politicians can't admit as much - getting a wave of early cases out of the way in Spring followed by a hopefully steady flow into the Summer months is the best way to manage an infection which an estimated 80% of us are fated to face anyway.

All terrible news for the airline industry, of course. And for leisure travel generally. But bigger concerns have to take priority. In the longer term it is hoped that an effective vaccine can be formulated. But finding an effective treatment and then producing it in sufficient volume will be a very challenging endeavour. We may not achieve this in time for Winter '20/'21.

Will Norwegian survive? And Alitalia for that matter...

Alitalia could survive WW3, WW4 and WW5 given it's record.

Don't be too sure about that the Italian economy will divert its cash into fighting this virus not to a flagging airline that's cancelled most of its flights.

This seems to be the last straw for Alitalia. Their government gave them a huge financial support last year, but with all this scenario, they wont be in the capacity to do it once again in such a short time, specially when they need to prioritize their spending to more critical entities and local governments.

Regardless of the money, I don't think anyone at a senior level in the Italian Govt has time to think about Alitalia - efforts will likely be focussed entirely elsewhere

So much for a common approach from the EU. 27 countries and 27 different reactions and plans. Countries closing borders with each other. Every country thinking about itself.

Every National Govts 1st responsibility is to its citizens first.

Not according to the EU press conference I was watching. United front? Yeah right

All politics is local. They will coordinate but all Govts will act for their own population first. No different from Scottish doing it in UK irrespective of what London says.

It should be but I suspect every Government looks after itself first.

OzzyOzBorn Yes, it is a valid approach. In six months time we'll know if it was the right one!

I certainly understand reluctance to go to extremes but most politicians do not like people pointing at them and screaming 'You killed my granny'. There will be plenty of opportunity for that and the tabloids will lap it up.

From the Norwegian thread :

Sort of associated, but after 9/11 when passenger volume fell well away, the same happened with air freight volume too, both belly and full freighter. This was somewhat perplexing as freight was not worried about flying, and there was little equivalent economic downturn. I don't think it was ever satisfactorily explained.

Regarding belly freight, that is going to be impacted with the elimination of flights. All those Chinese imports, particularly at the higher tech end, pharmaceuticals, etc, even if shipped in bulk by container by sea, are dependent for product support and rush orders on air freight, much of whose capacity may be disorganised or lost. I was anticipating that as China gets economically back on its feet, as seems to be starting to happen, there might actually be an air freight surge to Europe/N America etc to recover supply lines.

Not an unreasonable viewpoint.

As China shuts for New Year the view from many end customers is that you lose a month between shut down and start up, with stuff on the water from Mid Jan then it would only be hitting ports circa late Feb which ultimately means it is only about now when into factories / stores. In addition many places over order because of the Chinese down time so orders wold be well over normal. Therefore assumption is that stock would be up to mid April before post New Year stock is in.

Biggest questio is whether start up is really happening and how long will it take items to be shipped via sea. If economic slowdown in west continues then inventories could be back to normal by June. At the higher end you still air freight because of value to weight.

Interesting that according to the WHO the daily cases outside of China are still above 15%
UK daily increase currently at 20%
USA daily increase currently trending at over 40% per day..... that could be tricky!!

Really interesting if you haven't looked at these: https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

With global borders shutting down and almost everyone having to self isolate for 14 days on arrival if they are flying then I think by Monday 16th the world airline landscape is going to be very different again.

Chinese domestic airline travel continues to increase. Was on an absolutely jam packed flight today between two lesser known cities. The whole system is working towards the greater cause with temperature checks, a barcode system linked to an app which tracks your whereabouts and knows if you've been in a high risk area and much more. Every single person wears a mask and just gets on with it. Meanwhile d*ckheads at home are scrambling and brawling over loo rolls and hand gel. Talk about third world!

UK has always been lead by the Daily Fail, The Scum, and other vile nasty pieces of gutter press. This is why we've got this going on - they are causing panic for no reason for a cheap headline the following day. Hence why we've got Boris "clueless" Johnson and his vile government. These nasty scum bag pieces of press led a campaign full of lies against Corbyn and Labour. Brainwashed the nation. They'd certainly be a target of mine if i was to ever become Prime Minister.

You will find that many would disagree with you. But this thread isn't the place to argue party politics.

Certainly isn't - and people have their choice. But you try have a factual debate with someone re: the election and i tell you right now the people voting for the conservative or the ones i have had the debate with were quoting lies which were peddled by the Daily Mail, The Scum etc.

I'll stick by my point above - we are acting 3rd world thanks to the nasty scum bags who write crap for their income.

You are out of order. It would be quite easy to point out untruths peddled by the left. But leave this thread for COVID-19. That is concern enough.

Im pointing out why are, the UK, are acting in the 3rd world way we are WHILST China has very much organised a very structured approach to it. Our free press. And i used GE as an example of this. I'm not out of order, i'm highlighting the simple truth.

Read post 287 on this thread. The strategy is quite logical. Not a matter for party political point scoring.

There is much to be said on how the media and different political systems influences how Govt forms policies towards handling pandemics. What works in an authoritarian state with little journalistic freedom doesn't work in a liberal democracy, different societies prioritise human rights in different ways - it's a huge topic for debate... but maybe something for JetBlast ?

The strategy adopted by China, and by its neighbours, has been to use draconian restrictions to throttle the spread of the virus. The trouble is that outside Hubei province very few have been infected, so, as soon as normal activities resume it is likely that the disease will reappear (until a vaccine is developed).
The policy in the UK and I think the rest of Europe is to accept that most people will catch it and it will die out when enough have, and are immune. The focus is on ensuring that we don't all catch it at once, overwhelming the hospitals as has happened in northern Italy.
Which strategy will prove to be correct? Time will tell.
​​​​​​
​​

Now the UK govt talks of banning mass gatherings from next week. This seems curious as, an infectious person can more easily infect those around them - than across a stadium. If you ban mass gatherings it does not stop infected (but asymptomatic) people from infecting numerous people.

But, happily we shall know the answer very shortly, in about three months time...

You are clearly an angry person who hasn’t got over the loss of yet another General Election, which is actually yesterday’s news. People like Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott and John McDonnell were the authors of their own downfall together with a manifesto that made the party unelectable.

Back to the thread. Countries are shutting the door after the horse has bolted but there is an argument that restrictions on entry could still make a difference. This virus can’t be stopped now, most people accept that point so it comes down to controlling the speed of the infection rate to build up the populations immunity in a controlled manner, if that is even possible, and to keep it away from elderly people. When enough people have immunity it will help keep others safe and reduce the impact of further waves of infections hitting the U.K. next winter.

We can see what is happening in Italy where their health service is overwhelmed. This is going to happen to not only the NHS but most health services in Europe so is a frightening prospect as people will die due to a lack of treatment.

It might not happen in America where many Americans would rather die than pay the deductibles which insurance companies charge. Then there is of course those millions of Americans with no insurance who could not even afford the $2000 for a ride in an ambulance let alone any treatment.

It will be interesting to see the final death rates for America compared with Europe with its socialised health care.

Last mention of aviation was ten posts ago - back on topic, please or take it to JetBlast.

Concerning the air traffic, the most radical countries in that regard are at present these in Central-Eastern Europe. For example:

• Czechia is closing all its borders, allowing only its own citizens to return back home. To my understanding, that does not mean ban on flights at the moment
• Slovakia closes all its international airports for passenger traffic as of now
• Poland introduces ban on all international flights from Sunday 15th of March

For an airline that is medium sized or larger (ie 50 aircraft each with 150 seats), does anyone have an idea of how much of the company's costs would be variable (fuel, air nav charges, per-pax airport charges, etc) versus fixed costs (salaries, debt repayment for new aircrafy, rental on office space, etc) ?
Furthermore, how much of these fixed costs can be cut (eg staff redundancies) without the risk of being sued heavily in court (eg by aircraft lessors) ?

I realise that every airline is different and commercial confidentiality mean exact figure are private - but there must be some sort of ballpark ranges for this

Spain is now closed and citizens under effective lockdown

Every airline will be different but as posted day or two ago the 1.) Lease 2.) Payroll 3.) Fuel 4.) Airport / APD / ATC / etc wil likely to be the highest in value terms.

Aircraft lessors will have to take a pragmatic view of rescheduling payments because failing to do that means Airlines start collapsing and there is not a who new range of clients out there will to take aircraft on, hence still owe but instead of paying next quarterly payment (not sure whether it is like property where rent paid 4 times a yr in advance) debt gets parked until can be paid. Lessors taking a hard line will likely find that other airlines / govts etc act against them like banking license etc. Basically everybody in same boat so consistent approach sought.

Employess............. likely to be laid off, Govt will then have to fund via welfare system

Fuel............. not using then not paying and contracts for certain levels will just be rolled over, bearing in mind fuel price halved then oil companies will want airlines held to contracts at €75 a barrel, hence play ball.

Govts etc............... possibly more problematic but can see airlines taking a lot longer to pay, airports which do not have aircraft stationed there and no flights coming in for foreseeable future may not be paid for a long time. Pay those whom you need to pay, rest will pay eventually. Some airports will go bust.

We should also remember the thousands of staff who work in airports, many already on reduced hours and many will lose their jobs.

Bottom line is to manage cash flow now.

LTNman Unfortunately, the virus has already mutated and at least two strains have been identified. Herd immunity is not possible.

All govts are going to print money, unfortunately, as we were on the brink of recession anyway - this will compound the sovereign debt problem.

UK and Ireland to be added to the list of naughty countries by the USA

A good example is airlines that have been hit by long term strikes, sometimes several months. These seem to manage through all these fixed costs with no income without significant subsequent collapse. This happens even through passenger loyalty, once restarted, may have evaporated to other carriers, which is not going to happen here.

So what of the future?

It appear entirely conceivable that there will be some pretty serious failures in the travel and tourism industry in the next 12 months, unless there is to be a new global mantra of "sh1t happens - keep calm and carry on" which isn't the direction of travel at the moment. It is hard to imagine governments (with the possible exception if Italy who have form) bailing out airlines and / or tour operators in the way they bailed out the banks in 2008/9. When it all comes to an end, as it surely will, there'll be aircraft in the hands of leasing companies with nothing to do, and empty hotels with no forward bookings.

Is the whole industry going to rebuild from ground zero, and will there be a return, at least initially to there being a myriad small independent tour operators chartering aircraft and seats off a new generation of smaller charter and scheduled airlines? Are we, in other words, essentially going to be turning the clock back to 1970, at least from a European leisure industry perspective?

Germany has promised substantial assistance to their affected companies.

How about it, Mr Sunak? Mr Shapps?

Although I expect Willie Walsh will turn down any bailout offer for IAG following his comments about assistance for FlyBe. ;-)

I know that is offering assistance to industry across the board as a result of the current crisis, but bail companies out? If that company were to be Volkwagen, Siemens, BMW or another big industrial concern they amy well, subject to whatever state aid rules might apply from Brussels, but bailing out an industry that essentially ships wealth out of the country? Can't see that myself. Assistance is one thing and may help, but unless things change I can't see assistance being enough.

Similar from the UK government? Well unless you're a bank I honestly can't see it, even when we're out of EU transition.

Who will want the exisitng big operators - who they know, and who have a track record - to survive, so will do all they can to make that happen. Seems more likely than a ground zero approach. "a myriad small independent tour operators chartering aircraft and seats off a new generation of smaller charter and scheduled airlines?" - chaos. Scale and experience will be needed.