Not only that. But from what I've heard the lease companies aren't exactly in a strong position to say no to any lease/payment deferrals at this time. Not like they can place their asset elsewhere.

45 DAY RULE is going to put pressure on the Sims?

Is it 2 days per driver?

Tiger

All sims and ground training on hold at the moment. We are more likely to come up against the 3 in 90 rule for the majority😟😟

The 45 day rule is only for recency, 1 take off and landing required. So, no, it’s not a 2 day event for that, it’s 10-15 minutes per person. If we go beyond 90 days then it’s 3 take offs and landings, so that’s be about 20-30 minutes per person.

Jet2 latest trading update, Leeds based owners Dart Group PLC seem to be doing ok despite the COVID-19 situation.

https://bdaily.co.uk/articles/2020/0...andemic-impact

Saying they are doing "ok" is a bit naive. Jet2 did very well until 31st March. They have no visibility of what this financial year might look like.

I don't think the 109 m is the cost of this. That's just the Hedge gone wrong cost
tiger

Not looking good for the likes of Jet2 or Tui.
Taken from the Travel Weekly.
Tourism chiefs in Palma are hopeful that some travel will resume by August this year.
Palma Tourism Board manager Pedro Homar said that restrictions were likely to be lifted first for local and domestic travellers, with hopes for a return of international travel later in the year and in to 2021.

Very similar to what has been coming out of the Canaries as well - they are not expecting foreign tourists until August/September.

And even then they would be daft to take visitors from the UK rather than from countries with much lower rates of infection.

Iceland revealed extremley high infection rates after undertaken mass testing of their population but so far have had relativly low death rates. There are more factors at play than just the headline grabbing daily death count that seems to be the ultimate measure of success.

It's not the "death rate" it's the infection rate, which presently in UK is way too high and isn't actually falling - it's static at ca. 4,000 per day.

Wow...now I can understand the reluctance of the Canarian Government to open up tourism to UK when Canarias closes the last 16 hours without new infections by Covid-19. Now I know why I will stay a little longer. !!!

Its testing that determines the infection rate, the more you test the more you find, the Uk is testing give or take 100'000 a day and report 4'000 cases a day which suggests a 4% infection rate, however you can't extrapolate that across the whole population because they are only testing selected groups, most of whom are at higher risk, there is a random sample being undertaken that should better inform population infection rates, but this will only pick up currently infected not people who have been infected.

It seems from early reports that most countries that have eased the lockdown have seen the rate tick up again with one chap in Seoul visiting 5 night clubs leading to 40 plus infections, fortunately their trace and track systems are well in advance of most western countries, but they now closed 2000 or was it 20000 night clubs !!

I suspect that Spain will see a second surge within 14 days, the distancing rules are being flouted and many are back to kissing and hugging anyone they meet. The only response should this happen is a further bout of restrictions which would spell game over for tourism this year.

The UK is not testing 100,000 a day and has not come even near to 100,000 a day since the lovely government propaganda of testing over 120,000 for one day. It is averaging 80,000 or less. It is also not about the number of tests it's about the number of people getting tested. Doing 2 or 3 tests on one person is good, but it the crucial number here is the number of people tested not the number of tests. That is what will matter.

As for Spain i have to agree with you; tourism may already be over anyway. I read a few articles, saying they were wanting to test tourism with Spanish mainland residents in Balearics and Canary Islands.

FYI new cases in Tenerife yesterday were 1 and deaths Nil

For the UK traveler, coming from a country where there are ca. 450 deaths a day, and a little less than 4,000 new cases a day, even if Tenerife did open up, it wouldn't be for us until we get new cases (deaths are a side show since there is a long time lag between contracting covid-19 and dying from it) down to ca. 1,000 per day there's no chance.

The Baltic states are opening up to travel between each other The same looks likely to be applied between other neighbouring countries. We appear to be allowing free flow between the UK & France even after the alleged 1st June Quarantine rules. However, the thought that many tourist destinations would allow incoming tourists from one of the world's hotspots, as is the UK, is wildly optimistic. There is no logic to any of this, certainly no joined up thinking between countries. Airlines, like Jet2 are in an impossible situation trying to second guess not only the virus itself, but the politicians too, good luck with that.
By the way the UK is only testing around 60,000 PEOPLE a day not anywhere near 100,000.

It makes no difference between testing 100,000 or 60,000 per day.
If the figure was 60 million a day, then that would matter.
You can test negative today and positive tomorrow as the test cannot predict the future. :ugh:
Which is why the government is rightly looking at a 14 day quarantine period.

The problem is the 14 day quarantine period should have been implemented the day lockdown happened, it was announced at the start of this month but won't be implemented until the end of the month, in that time, how many people could bring the virus in!

Or, more likely, take the virus out, except that all destination countries are closed to non residents

Exactly, I find it odd that it is only being introduced now that some measures are being slightly eased. Although, at times I am genuinely confused as to why so many people seem to be flying...

That is not confirmed and as far as I known it will only be implemented if needed at sometime in future

awwdabaaby
It should have happened in January, when we could see this coming.
Not helped by people still going on holidays to Asia in February and March and then moaning that they could not get back.:ugh:

I had a lovely time in Thailand in February. Can’t wait to go back.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e744b57aa6.png

https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/artic...ommercial-loan link for the above

How high profile was Coronavirus in the UK at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb period? Just as it was escalating and the risks becoming clear did we ramp
up preparation and warm people not to travel or did we give all airtime to something else? I don’t know the answer you see, I was in Asia.

Refunds.

Just received my refund for a cancelled flight which was due to operate on May 27. No hassle, no requiring me to take a voucher just a straightforward refund.

Well done Jet 2, I know who I will fly with in future.

I find the whole thing confusing.
How do we know what R is unless you have full testing?
The official line is as followsIndividual modelling groups use a range of data to estimate R including:

• epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths – it generally takes 2 to 3 weeks for changes in R to be reflected in these data sources, due to the time between infection and needing hospital care
• contact pattern surveys that gather information on behaviour – these can be quicker (with a lag of around a week) but can be open to bias as they often rely on self-reported behaviour
• household infection surveys where blood samples and swabs are performed on individuals which can provide estimates of how many people are infected – longitudinal surveys (which sample the same people repeatedly) allow a direct estimate of the infection rates

Different modelling groups use different data sources to estimate R using complex mathematical models that simulate the spread of infections. Some may even use all these sources of information to adjust their models to better reflect the real-world situation. There is uncertainty in all these data sources, which is why R estimates can vary between different models, and why we do not rely on one model; evidence is considered, discussed and R is presented as a range.

Who estimates R?

R is estimated by a range of independent modelling groups based in universities and Public Health England (PHE). The modelling groups present their individual R estimates to the Science Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) - a subgroup of SAGE - for discussion. Attendees compare the different estimates of R and SPI- M collectively agrees a range which R is very likely to be within.

Now that's as clear as mud to me.
We are guessing ( estimating) based on data that 2/3 weeks old from various sources.

Its simply a BS media thing for newspapers to get hold of and panic the Populi needlesdly yet again.
If we had had a brave Government and not one where Money comes before People theyd have kept lockdiwn on HARD until end of May at least.
But we haven't.

The trouble is the medical profession in Britain didn't "see this coming" in January. On Radio 4 this morning a doctor researching treatments for Covid-19 recalled a conversation with colleagues well into February in which they discussed 'this disease in China' and speculated that maybe it was a type of flu. He said that, at that time, none of them even considered it could be a threat in Britain. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but not constructive unfortunately.

I appreciate you’ve lost all respect for me because I expressed some facts - and I mean facts - about our Prime Minister that aren’t comfortable for his supporters which are evidently numerous in the Luton and Southend threads but this just isn’t true, or at least shouldn’t be true. I know the exact sequence of events and dates because I was caught up in it early on. It was clear by w/c 24/01 this was a major threat and other countries were taking action. The elephant in the room is what our Government and the media were completely pre-occupied with w/c 24/01, culminating in the evening of 31/01
and morning of 01/02. And where they were, the Prime Minister in particular, in the three critical weeks after that. The medical profession very much saw this coming and (hopefully) all will come out in a proper Public Inquiry. Hindsight sadly didn’t need to be required.

With regards to this thread Jet2 are all the worse for it.

AirportPlanner1 and Expressflight
If l could foresee that we were going to be in deep s*** from this virus in January, why did the various scientific types not see or believe it, or did they just have there heads in the sand.
With regards to the R rate, this should not be seen as what is going on today.
I have noticed that the daily death rate is only showing additional deaths that have been registered in the previous 24 hours.
Looking at my local NHS trust hospital, they had a round 8 deaths recorded on one day but these were people who had not died within the previous week.
All l can say is good luck to all those employed by Jet2 and other airlines who l have friends working with, because it is going to be a long struggle before we come out of this nightmare.

Mr Spotty M, I don’t believe it was the science community with their heads in the sand. More than enough evidence of that. But I’ll leave it there, because I don’t want to get put on probation again for merely speaking the truth which is in any case on public record.

Our dear PM (from my recollection) had just returned from 2 weeks in Mustique, chose to miss 5 Cobra meetings on Covid19, and then did a 2 week sickie to hide in the fridge at Chevening country estate to negotiate his divorce from his 2nd wife. Then came back to London to announce his girlfriend's pregnancy, and subsequent birth of his 6/7th child. Other than that he was right on it....so on it that he used his common sense to go and shake hands with a load of Covid patients as he needed the photo-op. Please correct me on fact if I have remembered any of that incorrectly - nothing meant to be at all political in that response; does that answer your question?

Please don't paint all in the medical profession in the same vein. I have read, listened and know many in healthcare sector who DID see it coming in January, warned their superiors, and did source their own PPE ahead of Govt awareness. Just look at the Senate whistleblower hearings yesterday in Washington to witness the same there. Best leave it to the Cabinet to re-write history.
Remember, we all watched Wuhan emergency hospital being built in a week in January and marvelled at it. If you work in aviation and are aware of the existence of long haul air travel, it didn't need much more to reckon it was going to come here in a matter of weeks, with 2m passengers travelling every 24hr. Perhaps if those in charge of preparedness had acted quicker we would have an industry left now. Just my personal view.

This thread appears to have lost its focus- Jet2, not who said/did/didn’t do what with regards to the start of this current mess.

Virgin Atlantic are looking to put back till August there planned return of operations, that is if the planned quarantine goes ahead, providing on them securing fresh financing.
Maybe Jet2 might consider this also?