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southside bobby 16th Sep 2018 19:29

Looking forward then with that 2020 "teaser"...

Agreed...lots of doubters concerning Jet2 to STN & into the LCC "lions den".

Their & STN`s growth has been nothing short of remarkable since.

Jet2 have been market makers here & MAG it is obvious were confident of the outcome too.

It appears interesting that for STN`s catchment now the Jet2 CEO refers to it as the South & Southeast...a very large market.

As with Emirates to STN,MAG too have the data/knowledge & acumen to drive their investment on.

The STN CEO has a pretty formidable record previously for growing MAN & customer airlines too hence the reasoning a while back for switching him here.

PDXCWL45 16th Sep 2018 20:06


Originally Posted by southside bobby (Post 10250616)
Looking forward then with that 2020 "teaser"...
It appears interesting that for STN`s catchment now the Jet2 CEO refers to it as the South & Southeast...a very large market.
.

It has to be marketed as that in a way as slots at Gatwick and Heathrow would be extremely hard to get so i wouldn't be surprised if in the long run STN becomes there biggest base.

Plane.Silly 17th Sep 2018 06:46


Bit of a random one, but has anyone heard of LS taking over Thomas Cook? Heard from a source that they were considering it
This is most definitely a non starter based solely on the company's nature...
LS pride themselves on doing everything themselves. All their growth has been natural (i.e no takeovers/ mergers)
LS have the 2nd largest ATOL, leaving TCX in 3rd. LS are expected to clear over 3m pax for the financial year whereas TCX have been broadly static around 2.5m
LS have all their own in-house operations, including self handling at several of the largest bases, which in turn provides a more reliable and favoured service. Everything TCX has is outsourced where possible to 'save costs'. While this may not be too much of a logistical problem, they'd just be taking on extra dead weight in most areas.
The only airline benefits (that i can see) for LS to take over TCX is for airport slots, particularly at MAN. Operating an all Boeing fleet (the A321/A330's are all wet leased) causes pilot/ training/ warehousing issues for them so the planes would be next to useless to them (unless they sold them back to Condor)
The benefit for the Holidays Arm is the hotel portfolio to help expand their Jet2Holidays offering. Having said that, they will likely overlap on upto 90% of hotels, meaning LS would take over TCX just for around a 10% hotel expansion. Based on some of the guarantees TCX will have signed, they may not even be available for a number of years.

So in summary, i would very much question your source, I'd eat my entire wardrobe if this went ahead (a hat wouldn't be that significant)

JM926 17th Sep 2018 10:27


Originally Posted by Plane.Silly (Post 10250857)
This is most definitely a non starter based solely on the company's nature...
LS pride themselves on doing everything themselves. All their growth has been natural (i.e no takeovers/ mergers)
LS have the 2nd largest ATOL, leaving TCX in 3rd. LS are expected to clear over 3m pax for the financial year whereas TCX have been broadly static around 2.5m
LS have all their own in-house operations, including self handling at several of the largest bases, which in turn provides a more reliable and favoured service. Everything TCX has is outsourced where possible to 'save costs'. While this may not be too much of a logistical problem, they'd just be taking on extra dead weight in most areas.
The only airline benefits (that i can see) for LS to take over TCX is for airport slots, particularly at MAN. Operating an all Boeing fleet (the A321/A330's are all wet leased) causes pilot/ training/ warehousing issues for them so the planes would be next to useless to them (unless they sold them back to Condor)
The benefit for the Holidays Arm is the hotel portfolio to help expand their Jet2Holidays offering. Having said that, they will likely overlap on upto 90% of hotels, meaning LS would take over TCX just for around a 10% hotel expansion. Based on some of the guarantees TCX will have signed, they may not even be available for a number of years.

So in summary, i would very much question your source, I'd eat my entire wardrobe if this went ahead (a hat wouldn't be that significant)


You might well question his source, but as an employee I heard the rumour only a matter of weeks ago. Not saying there is any truth whatsoever to it-but it has been doing the rounds internally

Plane.Silly 17th Sep 2018 11:41


Originally Posted by JM926 (Post 10251010)
You might well question his source, but as an employee I heard the rumour only a matter of weeks ago. Not saying there is any truth whatsoever to it-but it has been doing the rounds internally


Jet2 seem to be on the giving end of a lot of takeover rumours over the past few years: Tie up with Easyjet, Takeover of Monarch before going bust, now this
The price you pay when you're as successful as they are, and with organic growth i suppose.

I just don't see it happening, given that LS have pretty much come out of nowhere 15 years ago and now have a fleet of 80+, then to start a tour operator 10 years ago which is now the 2nd largest. It makes no sense that LS would want to takeover TCX, when they could just do it themselves, and probably better than the current TCX way.
As i said, the only benefits would be a slightly larger hotel portflio and Aircraft slots, which all in all probably isn't worth the gargantuan figure they'd need to pay

SWBKCB 17th Sep 2018 11:47

If it's all the Thomas Cook group and not just the UK airline, it gives them a ready made European operation (I they want one)

azz767 17th Sep 2018 15:49

It would also give them a foothold into long haul ops, especially in holiday terms to the home of the mouse and the Caribbean. But also a foothold into the US market if they want it, with the perfect sized a/c. Long haul is something LS have been rumoured to be looking at for a number of years

daz211 17th Sep 2018 17:11

With the traditional summer holiday market now at saturation and winter sun destinations limited compared to the summer season, Jet2 are looking for a new market, I know Orlando and Las Vegas are holiday markets Jet2 have looked long and hard at as well as Year round city breaks to New York but the lack of suitable aircraft has been the sticking point.

The situation is now expanded to new destinations or acquire a bigger market of what we have now.

sixchannel 18th Sep 2018 21:26

Cape Verde Islands?
 
With Jet2 expanding their holiday market vigorously, i wonder if the Cape Verde Islands might be a target for the near future?
Those who know can advise if the new 800s have the range.

shamrock7seal 19th Sep 2018 01:41

How many aircraft does Jet2 have based around its network (S19)?

Leeds Bradford - 16
Stansted - 12
Birmingham - 11
Manchester - ???
Glasgow - 7
Edinburgh - 5
Newcastle - 7
East Midlands - 7
Belfast - ???
Alicante - ???
Palma - ???

irishlad06 19th Sep 2018 02:11

[QUOTE=shamrock7seal;10252388]How many aircraft does Jet2 have based around its network (S19)?

Leeds Bradford - 16
Stansted - 12
Birmingham - 11
Manchester - ??? 22
Glasgow - 7
Edinburgh - 5
Newcastle - 7
East Midlands - 7
Belfast - ??? 4
Alicante - ??? 3
Palma - ??? 2 possibly 3

BHX5DME 19th Sep 2018 06:27

Hoping BHX May have a couple more yet ?

inOban 19th Sep 2018 07:06

Only 5in EDI? There were 6 this year.

Plane.Silly 19th Sep 2018 09:58


Originally Posted by sixchannel (Post 10252259)
With Jet2 expanding their holiday market vigorously, i wonder if the Cape Verde Islands might be a target for the near future?
Those who know can advise if the new 800s have the range.

Think it's very much on the limit. Based on MAN to Boa Vista (BVC) it's around 4600km. which with a full load of 189 + bags would be pushing it i think. TUI do use a B738 from FRA, which is about the same distance but not sure if it uses an aux tank or not.
They could however use their B752's, which would get there no problem.

For the airline then, it might not be a problem, but what about the range of accommodation for their Holidays arm? I haven't been myself but i think the big areas have TCX/TUI exclusivity which limits the options for Jet2 couldn't get into. They like to look in both areas before launching new routes from previous observation

Ivan aromer 19th Sep 2018 20:33

Cape Verde
 

Originally Posted by sixchannel (Post 10252259)
With Jet2 expanding their holiday market vigorously, i wonder if the Cape Verde Islands might be a target for the near future?
Those who know can advise if the new 800s have the range.

of course the 75s can do it without breaking a sweat!

castleford tiger 20th Sep 2018 18:42

I also do NOT think JET 2 will buy TCG.
They have a mountain of debt to start with.

Figures quoted at the AGM.
12 million package holidays booked in the UK.
Jet 2 have 25% 3 million.
It was said that's where the growth will come from in the next few years.
I think within 4 years we will have 50% of the market.
In my opinion we do it better and our returning customers are growing the business.
We offer a better end to end service than TCG..
We will roll out resort check in to more hotels.
When asked about replacing the 757 fleet it was said either the new 737 or an order with Airbus would come.
I think another order for frames is being talked about now and I expect one around 2020.
We will have 100+ flying at the peak next summer.

Returned today on LS252 out of FARO on the TITAN 757 that had an issue a month ago.
Not a spare seat out or back
Early in and out and Faro looks like a UK base some days ( 3 flights from lba and man)
Excellent service till you get to LBA and not a trolley to be found in arrivals. Such a shame they do let themselves down.
E mail to Mr Laws tomorrow.

I am a shareholder and communicate with the Directors at the AGM.

Plane.Silly 21st Sep 2018 06:58

Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.

While i believe their Holiday market will continue to grow tremendously, the 50% in 4 years is a bit unrealistic.
Even if the market stayed the same size at 12m, which is highly unlikely, Jet2 would need 6m, So they'd need to double their current volume of holiday passengers. Bearing in mind it's taken the 11 years to reach the 3m mark as well
(it's Maths time...)
Jet2Holidays are around 50% of all seats sold (grapevine rumour). and based on around 13m seats currently on sale. Assuming 12m are actually sold (Loads of about 92% which sound about right).
50% of 12m = 6m holidays seats = 3m return trips [so stands to reason that if you double the number of seats on sale, you'll double the volume of holidays passengers.
This also means you'd need close to double to existing fleet so we'd be taking around 180-200 planes (including any leased in like the A330) and taking onboard several mid-life 738's isn't going to facilitate this.
WIth all that said, the more likely scenario is that other companies would grow as well, so by the time Jet2 were to hit 6m holidays customers, the market would probably have grown as well to around 18m. This would leave a market share of 33%.
(end of maths time)

Sorry you caught me on a bad day and while you bring useful info, i needed to clarify your thought. I fully believe Jet2 can achieve great things. They'll definitely have TUI in their sight who have a share of around 44% (based on current ATOL) and it's that share that all for the taking

HH6702 21st Sep 2018 07:17

Thomas cook
 

Hasnt Thomas Cook ONLY put the airline part of the business up for sale not the holiday side.?

my understanding of this is that if any deal was done it would give Jet2 all there aircraft and slots at all uk airports however flying Thomas Cook passengers when required.

so TCX holidays would charter in Jet2 to do the flying.

Jet2 would then have to decide if it would keep Airbus or order more Boeing aircraft.

sp any deal is aircraft/airline only

Curious Pax 21st Sep 2018 07:35


Originally Posted by HH6702 (Post 10254389)

Hasnt Thomas Cook ONLY put the airline part of the business up for sale not the holiday side.?

As I understand it they’ve not gone that far, but have said they are looking at getting external investment, which I read as hoping someone would take a minority share. Of course if the right offer for the whole airline came in I’m sure they would consider it.

castleford tiger 22nd Sep 2018 08:06

Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.

While i believe their Holiday market will continue to grow tremendously, the 50% in 4 years is a bit unrealistic.
Even if the market stayed the same size at 12m, which is highly unlikely, Jet2 would need 6m, So they'd need to double their current volume of holiday passengers. Bearing in mind it's taken the 11 years to reach the 3m mark as well
(it's Maths time...)
Jet2Holidays are around 50% of all seats sold (grapevine rumour). and based on around 13m seats currently on sale. Assuming 12m are actually sold (Loads of about 92% which sound about right).
50% of 12m = 6m holidays seats = 3m return trips [so stands to reason that if you double the number of seats on sale, you'll double the volume of holidays passengers.
This also means you'd need close to double to existing fleet so we'd be taking around 180-200 planes (including any leased in like the A330) and taking onboard several mid-life 738's isn't going to facilitate this.
WIth all that said, the more likely scenario is that other companies would grow as well, so by the time Jet2 were to hit 6m holidays customers, the market would probably have grown as well to around 18m. This would leave a market share of 33%.
(end of maths time)

Sorry you caught me on a bad day and while you bring useful info, i needed to clarify your thought. I fully believe Jet2 can achieve great things. They'll definitely have TUI in their sight who have a share of around 44% (based on current ATOL) and it's that share that all for the taking

OK The bit that you quote that is correct is a 50/50 split. The 13 and 12m also look pretty close.
Lets look at Holidays that I estimate will be 3 million this year up from 2.5m which was up from 1.73 the year before ( added new bases.) and 1.22 then 1.0m then 830,000 in 2014
So the number doubled in just two seasons 1.22 to 2.5m and trebled in 4 from 830,000. That's EXCLUDING current year.
So growth has been 20%/22%40%/40% and current year we estimate 20%
That's pretty impressive.
So yes it may have taken 11 years from the start to get to 3 m but the rolling figure I have used to get to 50% of the market is based on
3 m in current year 3.5 m then 4.375 then 5.25 and finally 6 million. so 17% next year then 22% then 20% and finally 15%
Adding 20 or 25% to bigger numbers rapidly get you there.
Look at 1.87m to 3m in just two seasons well on the way to doubling the base figure.

I disagree that other companies are growing ,but agree the market maybe expanding a little. TCG have been hammered by JET2 holidays.
At Faro its spot a TUI or TCG rep.
Looking at growth the company have predicted for summer 19 I think my 3.5m is on track.
As i said I understood from the AGM there WILL be a new order for frames BEFORE we need to replace the 757 fleet. I think 30 more would not shock me.
I think the wet lease number will increase as we see growth. Leeds has the TITAN 757 doing 4 sectors a day.

We have totally ignored a new base and just assumed that growth will come from current bases.
best tiger


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