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Plane.Silly 22nd Sep 2018 08:43


Originally Posted by castleford tiger (Post 10255272)
Good to see i'm not alone Castleford Tiger.

OK This bit that you quote that is correct is a 50/50 split. The 13 and 12m also look pretty close.
Lets look at Holidays that I estimate will be 3 million this year up from 2.5m which was up from 1.8 the year before ( added new bases.)
So yes it may have taken 11 years from the start to get to 3 m but the rolling figure I have used to get to 50% of the market is based on
3 m in current year 3.5 m then 4.375 then 5.25 and finally 6 million.
Adding 20 or 25% to bigger numbers rapidly get you there.
Look at 1.87m to 3m in just two seasons well on the way to doubling the base figure.

I disagree that other companies are growing ,but agree the market maybe expanding a little. TCG have been hammered by JET2 holidays.
At Faro its spot a TUI or TCG rep.
Looking at growth the company have predicted for summer 19 I think my 3.5m is on track.
As i said I understood from the AGM there WILL be a new order for frames BEFORE we need to replace the 757 fleet. I think 30 would not shock me.
I think the wet lease number will increase as we see growth. Leeds has the TITAN 757 doing 4 sectors a day.

The key part to this is the jump from 1.87 to 3m in 2 years. All this was facilitated by the addition of BHX/STN and also off the back of the 34 737-8MG's. There is nothing like this on the cards for the next few years (i.e. no new large bases or large amount of new aircraft joining the fleet). so i would have guessed no more than 1/2 m extra hols pax per year, meaning 6m is hit in 6 years. Still not a bad performance.
As for the market, while TUI would stay about the same and Thomas Cook drop slightly further, the growth would be from other areas such as Expedia/On The Beach. Also there's competition from BA holidays. Even U2 are starting up their holidays product as well though their no different to Expedia & co...

Moving on from all that though, the prospect of a new fleet order to replace the 757's is intriguing. Since they already have their B738's, we'd be looking on the larger side. Initial thoughts would be the Max9/10 or the A321neo filled with around 220 to 230 seats, similar to the 235 seats the 757's operate. Or do they make the jump to widebodys as they have done with the leased A330's. The smallest widebody would surely come into consideration as well (A332/A338) or B788. They'd probably be able to get around 350 seats in each which could probably be sustained on a decent amount of routes. Also opening up the prospect of Long-Haul operations too (tying in with the TCX rumour).

Interesting times ahead, and im sure they'll make a huge success of it, regardless of what 'it' is

sixchannel 25th Sep 2018 10:51

LS612 Divert
 
LS612 GRO - EMA G-GDFL has diverted to Rennes after a rapid 180 at altitude.
Hope everyones OK.
Update - according to Nottingham Post, diversion due to "poorly pilot". Doesnt say if PF or PM.

Flying Wild 25th Sep 2018 12:33


Originally Posted by sixchannel (Post 10257859)
Doesnt say if PF or PM.

I think you mean FO or Capt. As soon as someone is incapacitated, the PM is also the PF, or vice versa.

Plane.Silly 25th Sep 2018 13:07


I think you mean FO or Capt. As soon as someone is incapacitated, the PM is also the PF, or vice versa.
Doesn't have to be flight deck, it could be one of the flight crew, meaning they need to divert and either source replacement crew, which at RNS is unlikely, or they unload pax and continue with a reduced load. Might not explain the 'rapid 180' but just throwing that out there

sixchannel 25th Sep 2018 13:12


Originally Posted by Plane.Silly (Post 10257972)
Doesn't have to be flight deck, it could be one of the flight crew, meaning they need to divert and either source replacement crew, which at RNS is unlikely, or they unload pax and continue with a reduced load. Might not explain the 'rapid 180' but just throwing that out there

Yes, what they said. ;-)
Although the '''newspaper" does say 'pilot'.

David Sharpe 25th Sep 2018 16:31

Summer 2019
 
Whilst realising it is still very early days, I have had a look at the currently filed Summer 2019 peak programme (based on August 2019)
It presently shows 1236 departures per week (+103 on Summer 2018)
Manchester (262 departures per week (+17)) Leeds Bradford (202 departures per week (+16)) London Stansted (190 departures per week (+34)) Birmingham (166 departures per week (+39)) East Midlands (115 departures per week (+8)) Newcastle (99 departures per week (no change)) Glasgow (81 departures per week (+2)) Edinburgh (68 departures per week (-13)) Belfast (53 departures per week (no change))
There are presently 329 airport pairs on offer, an increase of 26 from the Summer 2018 peak

inOban 25th Sep 2018 17:28

Surprising reduction at EDI. I know they've dropped VIE, much to the annoyance of friends, and Murcia of course, and reduced BUD (FR competition),and of course they're gradually eliminating the 733's. But anyone know more?

GoEDI 25th Sep 2018 18:15


Originally Posted by inOban (Post 10258165)
Surprising reduction at EDI. I know they've dropped VIE, much to the annoyance of friends, and Murcia of course, and reduced BUD (FR competition),and of course they're gradually eliminating the 733's. But anyone know more?

The reductions are for August only as it looks like they're sending an aircraft South for English peak, so EDI temporarily drops from 6 to 5 aircraft. I've heard EDI is meant to be going all B738 next Summer though, if this does turn out to be the case it will mean even one aircraft down total seat capacity won't be miles off what it was this August when it was 3 B738/3 B733.

inOban 25th Sep 2018 18:40

That makes sense. This year there was an extra ALC-based flight which only operated in the Scottish peak.

Garstag 29th Sep 2018 14:30

GDRTN (formally VQBJX) landed at Lasham yesterday for fitting before entering service for Jet2



sixchannel 29th Sep 2018 16:33


Originally Posted by Garstag (Post 10261651)
GDRTN (formally VQBJX) landed at Lasham yesterday for fitting before entering service for Jet2

Hopefully a nice old girl. Ready in time for 2019 season?
Sweet Sixteen yrs, Ex-Pegasus (2002-2011) and then a few other lease-outs over the years before ending up in Russia, who'd had enough of it after 2 yrs. Likely coming out white with blue tail, do you think, as Orenair was white with red tail? Easy make-over?

sixchannel 29th Sep 2018 19:50

TTAN/JET2 G-POWH flying GIB-BHX today
 
Looks like FR24 are showing the Jet2 Titan 757 G-POWH running ZT631 and 632 codes on STN - Gibraltar - Brum runs.
Curious - are these some sort of ''proving runs' as GIB is not a listed destination and I believe its a Captains Only Landing airfield.

irishlad06 30th Sep 2018 01:36


Originally Posted by sixchannel (Post 10261850)
Looks like FR24 are showing the Jet2 Titan 757 G-POWH running ZT631 and 632 codes on STN - Gibraltar - Brum runs.
Curious - are these some sort of ''proving runs' as GIB is not a listed destination and I believe its a Captains Only Landing airfield.

POWH has finished its summer lease with Jet2.com hence flight numbers at ZT - these are charters for someone else.

daz211 30th Sep 2018 06:52


Originally Posted by irishlad06 (Post 10262007)


POWH has finished its summer lease with Jet2.com hence flight numbers at ZT - these are charters for someone else.

I thought the same but the flights did not show on the arrival and departure boards at GIB.

southside bobby 30th Sep 2018 11:27

Titan POWH ops for EZY at STN today...(non GIB without saying.)

Buster the Bear 30th Sep 2018 14:23


Originally Posted by sixchannel (Post 10261731)
Hopefully a nice old girl. Ready in time for 2019 season?
Sweet Sixteen yrs, Ex-Pegasus (2002-2011) and then a few other lease-outs over the years before ending up in Russia, who'd had enough of it after 2 yrs. Likely coming out white with blue tail, do you think, as Orenair was white with red tail? Easy make-over?

Red rudder.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2dv4c2c.jpg

sixchannel 30th Sep 2018 15:25

Thank you, Buster.
I can quite see that it can turn out as all white fuselage with big, red ''Jet2 on nose and red tail

https://app.box.com/s/2010vb2j2wgo2yrykcocyagxbm43503d

but it wouldnt take more than a tin or two of blue paint and the 'sunrise' motif either. 😉

PS - can anyone please tell me how to put the link up so it shows the pic.
Ta

Buster the Bear 30th Sep 2018 18:52


Sharklet_321 1st Oct 2018 07:47

SOU base on the cards?

sixchannel 1st Oct 2018 08:13


Originally Posted by Sharklet_321 (Post 10262804)
SOU base on the cards?

Have you had a tip-off?
The consensus earlier was no new base in 2019.
As it happens, SOU of no use to me, living in the Midlands. I've (possibly temporarily) abandoned BHX for my Jet2 flights due to their ever-increasing Security queueing times and rdiculous waits for bags in Arrivals, for EMA. Gotta give it a Can't be any worse and car parking is SO much cheaper.


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