You're assumption that summer 2021 will be bigger than what was planned for 2020 is a brave one. I would imagine that Jet2 are more concernec about getting through this summer than what they are going to do next.

However, if you are right I wouldn't have thought capacity would be an issue - the a/c being released by LH alone would be enough to cover your estimated shortfall. And who knows, even the MAX issue might have been resolved by then, releasing even more capacity into the market.

Long way to go before we get there, though. Far too many imponderables and uncertainities means it's all guesswork.

Who ever could perdict the future with the airline industry would be a rich person,a bit like what numbers the lottery would pick. Hope you clear of the virus and stay safe.

With economic forecasters suggesting an (average) drop of more than 14% in the size of the economy it would be very unlikely that forecast demand for 2021 as envisaged at the beginning of this year having any resemblance to reality come summer 2021. With so much of the population living hand to mouth (no rainy day savings) on their fully salary, take 20% away and luxuries like foreign holidays are going to be hard to justify / pay for come 2021 for many people.

The only way Jet2 will be at initial 2020 or ‘21 capacity fleet-wise will be if one or more other players folded, for example creating a gap at LGW that needs filling.

even then, Jet2 are never ones to just jump in and hastily open a new base to fill a gap left by a defunct carrier

Spot on, I can’t see any way there can much activity at all this year, according to industry estimates 2021 likely to be about 75-80 percent of 2019. Same for TUI and others. Lots of aircraft retirements ahead - agree the unexpected emergence of slots at LGW might change things for Jet2.

FF

LGW
 

Before we all get two carried away with Jet2 and Gatwick. Stansted covers the London market for them. I don’t see any carrier taking the risk of splitting the market and operating half full flights in the next year or so. There remains the possibility they could up sticks and move to LGW entirely after COVID as, I imagine, the slots would be available and the airport would welcome them with open arms. on the other hand however all the crew are Stansted based, they have a full self handling operation at Stansted and I imagine they have a legal agreement in place with Stansted airport to cover the discounts that they almost certainly have.

In my opinion I think it’s unlikely, but not impossible, they would move south of the river after this.

To be clear I wasn’t suggesting they would move south of the river. My suggestion was that if a large number of slots became available, and capacity in the core ‘Med’ market was lost, it would be a logical move for them to add a base. Also STN + LGW would greatly increase their catchment. I’m also not suggesting they would do so in an all-out kamikaze fashion.

Although anything and everything can change in this world, Jet2 had every opportunity to go for Gatwick slots when Thomas Cook failed. They did not even apply (where others including BA and Wizz did) and so one has to assume that's a clear statement by Jet2 of "no interest in Gatwick", albeit six months ago and not today.

Things do change. When CityFlyer Express was sold in the late 90s to BA, EasyJet had no interest in bidding for CFE because at that time EZY had no interest in LGW, seeing its future just at LTN.

Or maybe they weren't interested in the size of operation that could be launched from a share of the TCX slots, didn't have the resources available or a number of other reasons other they had no interest.

Airlines are fighting for survival and hoping for the best. Not thinking of expansion. Even the pre covid successful ones.

I think part of Jet2s previous lack of interest in LGW was not just lack of slots (the TCX portfolio was probably too small for them as noted above) but the price of them. If so many were to become available the value is low or zero that would be a different ball game no matter what was said a few months ago. Of course this is still heavily caveated on the health of Jet2 itself and the wider industry.

Talk of passengers numbers going back to 2018/19 levels for the next 2 years we could see a reduction of flights at many of jet2 bases and move a few aircraft down
instead of 2x daily to Palma the May move 1 of those flights to Gatwick.

all depends on the deals in place but I would expect airports and airlines will be talking about redoing some of these so I wouldn’t ever say no to Gatwick.

remember after 9/11 Easyjet went to Gatwick and look at them now so this could be the time if they have the money to go to Gatwick if there is a opening and good deal to be having.

good thing is Jet2 own most of there aircraft so they have an asset without large fees to pay each month unlike TUI or some of the others

good luck to them all

With all the speculation about Gatwick, I'm left wondering... how do Jet2 survive at Stansted when Ryanair would be only too willing to do the dirty against them.
The conclusion it seems is that they have a holiday arm which works well - and consumers trust (unlike Ryanair's holiday arm which largely failed)

Yes, Gatwick has a wealthier demographic than Stansted, but would Jet2 be able to compete as effectively against Easyjet's new holiday offering or the holiday arm of BA, never mind that of TUI ? I just don't see any of these 3 airlines disappearing (Monarch and Thomas Cook having already been sacrificed), and expect that they will all be offering plenty of flights to Mediterranean beaches for summer 2021

They don't seem to be doing too bad everywhere else, why would Gatwick be any different?

They already do at Manchester and Edinburgh....

I'm no accountant but owning an asset is not always a good thing. I think the 2018 accounts said the 737 order was financed with more debt and loans which will have to be serviced anyhow.

The much discussed G-LSAN just arriving at MAN back from Norwich

Apologies if I missed it but is LS still planning on flying the full summer 2020 schedule (other than cancelling LIS and the A330s) this year when and if things return to somewhat normal or have there been any other cuts to the schedule?