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Interesting.
Does anyone know the extent of what service their GLA based aircraft operate? |
An article in "The Irish News" that reported on the end of the BHD-LPL route a week ago mentioned this...
It comes amid fears that the carrier...is set to scale back on its regional hubs, cutting the number from 11 to possibly seven.
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Are CWL and DSA not subsidised?
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Originally Posted by mwm991
(Post 10298983)
Are CWL and DSA not subsidised?
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Not having a base at an airport does not necessarily amount to no longer serving the airport.
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Originally Posted by virginblue
(Post 10298971)
An article in "The Irish News" that reported on the end of the BHD-LPL route a week ago mentioned this......adding that BHD would not be one of those four The reamining ten are:
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Remember the LinkedIn article is their estimate, it in no way determines outright facts.
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I would treat the LinkedIn thing with real caution. It looks skewed by the Air France deal as ABZ and NCL are points where BE buys seats on AF and both are astronomically high. At places where AF buys seats from BE like BHX and MAN the numbers seem low. I guess the figures also include franchise routes so NCL and ABZ will be high as Eastern make up quite a big portion of Flybe brand activity at both. As the figures are for the last 12 months then they will also include stopped routes like the Highlands and Islands stuff during the tussle with Loganair. Definitely treat with caution, I’d say. It is interesting but I wouldn’t base any thoughts on it. |
So they would take the subsidy at CWL for three years and then not see out the rest of the agreement? Really? Do you think Welsh Government will see that as a good use of their money? |
Well the deal at CWL is for ten years which will be for a long time after the 195s are gone and I think you will find that if Flybe tries to leave early there will be penalties. |
A company at the end of its tether will not be scared by some penalty clauses in a contract. If a company needs to restructure, almost any contract it will have to touch has some sort of penalty clause in it or carries the risk of a liability for damages because of a breach of contract - be it leases, employment contracts or a contract with an airport. So what? Do you think CWL or DSA will sue Flybe with the obvious result that there still will not be flights afterwards and a then insolvent Flybe is unable to pay? By entering into a 10-year-contract, those airports took a gamble and they knew it.
But let's assume just for the sake of this discussion that Flybe is indeed forced to keep CWL and DSA, which four bases would you identify that are under threat of closure as per The Irish News? Without DSA and CWL (and apparently BHD), make your pick of four from these eight: EXT, SOU, MAN, BHX, EDI, GLA, ABZ and DUS. |
I would have to say DUS ABZ SOU and EXT i can’t see them closing BHX or MAN as they would have to find a place to fly over 20+ aircraft |
There is no way on God's earth that Saad would've got into a deal with CWL or DSA that Flybe couldn't get out of very easily. I think it'll be alot easier than you think for Flybe to pull the plug.
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I know we have been through this before but Welsh Government lent money to Cardiff Airport. Cardiff Airport used the money to subsidise Flybe. Cardiff Airport expects to make enough money at the back end of the deal to repay the Government. If any of that goes wrong there will be a huge political row and accusations of state subsidy and unfair competition. It wouldn’t be the same as a private sector airport shrugging their shoulders and regretting their bad call. |
Originally Posted by Reversethrustset
(Post 10299115)
There is no way on God's earth that Saad would've got into a deal with CWL or DSA that Flybe couldn't get out of very easily. I think it'll be alot easier than you think for Flybe to pull the plug.
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Originally Posted by tom7130
(Post 10299108)
I would have to say DUS ABZ SOU and EXT i can’t see them closing BHX or MAN as they would have to find a place to fly over 20+ aircraft |
Originally Posted by Reversethrustset
(Post 10299115)
There is no way on God's earth that Saad would've got into a deal with CWL or DSA that Flybe couldn't get out of very easily. I think it'll be alot easier than you think for Flybe to pull the plug.
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Originally Posted by runway30
(Post 10299128)
I know we have been through this before but Welsh Government lent money to Cardiff Airport. Cardiff Airport used the money to subsidise Flybe. Cardiff Airport expects to make enough money at the back end of the deal to repay the Government. If any of that goes wrong there will be a huge political row and accusations of state subsidy and unfair competition. It wouldn’t be the same as a private sector airport shrugging their shoulders and regretting their bad call. |
CWL is still growing but I think there's room for improvement. Lets not forget this is an average analysis of fare price. Some routes may be performing much better than others. It was an E195 base until earlier this year where it's not 3x E75, so probably more empty seats flying around until those changes. That being said there's a number of domestic routes from CWL that could be downgraded to the Dash. Would a mixed crew base of Embraer and Dash actually make it more efficient?
What we also don't know is if Project Blackbird had payments up front or payments over the term of the contract. I would suspect the latter, meaning continual income from the base over the period of the contract. If it was up front then BE could take the money and run. I would've thought a consolidation of poor performing routes over base closures would be better. BE could be making good money off some routes which may not be able to be operated if a base closes completely. |
Originally Posted by runway30
(Post 10299135)
If you don’t believe these ten year deals are enforceable, can I point you in the direction of Durham Tees Valley Ltd. v. Bmibaby Ltd.
That aside, the interesting questions are: 1) Did bmibaby operate until 2014 out of DTV because of that contract? 2) Did DTV recuperate the monies paid to bmibaby? 3) Has DTV been able to lure lots of new airlines to its shores after having sued bmibaby as a matter of principle? Long story short, if Flybe needs to dump CWL or DSA in order to survive, they will happily do so and suggest the airports to sue them and find out if Flybe will be around long enough to see the end of court proceedings and debt collection - and if so, if that will or will not be the final straw for BE. In the meantime, no more flights from the only remaining regional airline in the UK from anywhere to these airports. It is really not so much a legal as a practical issue for all parties involved. I would've thought a consolidation of poor performing routes over base closures would be better. BE could be making good money off some routes which may not be able to be operated if a base closes completely. |
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