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PPRuNe Forums (https://www.pprune.org/)
-   Airlines, Airports & Routes (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes-85/)
-   -   Flybe-9 (https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/599822-flybe-9-a.html)

limited_sight 17th Oct 2018 06:58
Flybe fresh profit warning
 
Expected result for the year 18/19 by £29m lower due to weaker demand, higher fuel prices and lower £.

Looks like that we should expect a further reduced schedule... and the uncertainties associated with brexit will not make it easier.

willy wombat 17th Oct 2018 07:39
At what point do you accept that the Flybe business model is just not working, and needs more fixing than just tinkering round the edges?

toledoashley 17th Oct 2018 07:39
Originally Posted by limited_sight (Post 10285176)
Expected result for the year 18/19 by £29m lower due to weaker demand, higher fuel prices and lower £.

Looks like that we should expect a further reduced schedule... and the uncertainties associated with brexit will not make it easier.
Share price has taken a hammering this morning, currently -33%.

22/04 17th Oct 2018 08:52
I think Flybe Is more vulnerable than many in the current political uncertainty. If Business travel is down and investment is down; and manufacturing is vulnerable, is provincial base means more impact is likely.

ATNotts 17th Oct 2018 09:05
Originally Posted by 22/04 (Post 10285260)
I think Flybe Is more vulnerable than many in the current political uncertainty. If Business travel is down and investment is down; and manufacturing is vulnerable, is provincial base means more impact is likely.
Does it run deeper than that? Is there a growing realisation that as BEA, and British Airways discovered, there is no money to be made out of connecting the regions of the UK by air. The best way forward may in fact be to make interlining arrangements with major carriers such as AF / KL and Lufthansa to feed into their hubs from UK regional airports, and retain just a few of the major domestics such as SOU, BHX and MAN to GLA / EDI and connecting Belfast to the main UK centres.

In essence cut back to the routes that they can and do make money on and can the rest - much smaller, slimmer operation, but one which does what shareholders want - makes profit and pays dividends!

PDXCWL45 17th Oct 2018 09:30
Originally Posted by ATNotts (Post 10285268)
Does it run deeper than that? Is there a growing realisation that as BEA, and British Airways discovered, there is no money to be made out of connecting the regions of the UK by air. The best way forward may in fact be to make interlining arrangements with major carriers such as AF / KL and Lufthansa to feed into their hubs from UK regional airports, and retain just a few of the major domestics such as SOU, BHX and MAN to GLA / EDI and connecting Belfast to the main UK centres.

In essence cut back to the routes that they can and do make money on and can the rest - much smaller, slimmer operation, but one which does what shareholders want - makes profit and pays dividends!
Your assuming that they make money on the interlining and codesharing? What would be better for them is a joint venture. Also with KLM you'd have thought they'd have been in a relationship with them by now as that would help release slots for KLM at AMS.
And why in these scenarios does Cardiff always gets dropped considering it's seen the most BE expansion lately and it's a government owned airport.

SWBKCB 17th Oct 2018 09:37
and it's a government owned airport.
What's the relevance of this - thought the ownership was an "arms length" commercial arrangement?

PDXCWL45 17th Oct 2018 09:55
Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 10285292)
What's the relevance of this - thought the ownership was an "arms length" commercial arrangement?
Yep it is but i do believe companies can get loans off the Welsh government especially if they were to setup new operations in Wales like Aston Martin.

Expressflight 17th Oct 2018 10:25
Flybe shares now down 37% on the day. Any chance of a new Stobart bid or was the first one just an Andrew Tinkler driven idea?

southside bobby 17th Oct 2018 11:00
Rather mischievous post above regarding that infamous Stobart/Tinkler bid for Flybe...

stewyb 17th Oct 2018 11:46
This the latest profits warning with things seemingly not changing for the better. There will be more routes/capacity slashed in order to stem the bleed. Only recently both Easyjet and Ryanair suggested that more regional airlines would go bust within the next 12 months. BE don’t hedge their fuel costs like the LCC’s, a major contributing factor for their struggles. I do hope they will eventually come out the other side although increasingly have my doubts!

Planespeaking 17th Oct 2018 11:48
Originally Posted by southside bobby (Post 10285335)
Rather mischievous post above regarding that infamous Stobart/Tinkler bid for Flybe...
I am not sure 'infamous' is quite the word I would have used, 'opportunist' perhaps, after all business is a shark infested lagoon. The Flybe business model seems to be very flawed thanks to the legacy of Jim French together with the naive and binding contracts he and his board signed with Embraer. How low the share price has to go before the company becomes attractive to a prospective buyer remains to be seen. I am sure Stobart are grateful that the Tinkler deal didn't complete a few months ago.

toledoashley 17th Oct 2018 12:04
I would say we’re not far from that barrier, maybe as low as 15p and I could see a takeover bid from someone - either Stobart, AIL or even IAG.

DC3 Dave 17th Oct 2018 12:19
Mike Ashley, perhaps?

bycrewlgw 17th Oct 2018 12:29
Originally Posted by toledoashley (Post 10285381)
I would say we’re not far from that barrier, maybe as low as 15p and I could see a takeover bid from someone - either Stobart, AIL or even IAG.
probably would never happen but always thought that BE would one day become BACon. Hopefully they’ll pull through.

southside bobby 17th Oct 2018 12:44
Perhaps research the Stobart tilt at Flybe in the business pages after that event...

PDXCWL45 17th Oct 2018 13:37
I wonder if they would think of doing something similar to Air Malta and sell flights through Ryanairs website. Would give them bigger exposure.

Flightrider 17th Oct 2018 14:26
Oh my word - has anyone seen the new edition of Airliner World?

Jamesair 17th Oct 2018 15:54
Yes....huge article on Flybe

davidjohnson6 17th Oct 2018 16:16
Can't remember - is it Airliner World or a different magazine which is known for its feature curse ?


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