With IAG releasing Q1 results on 11th May..

There has been suggestion we will hear more info on what routes BA will be operating/dropping following the takeover of BMI?

My personal guess

767 to BEY, FNA, KRT/ADD, ALA
Dropping of TBS, FRU, DAM, IKA, EVN
Daily LHR-RAK
777 direct ATQ
Double daily AMM
LCA 767 to 321

There must be a good commercial case for returning to Seoul as, even under CEO Rod Eddington, whose wife was Korean BA, never seriously considered returning.

It is a difficult market to crack as Koreans are very patriotic and not too keen on foreign airlines.

Just as many foreigners are not to keen on Korean airlines :rolleyes:

QueenVic

I realise this your personal opinion, please clarify why you think would BA drop the Caspian routes. I also see no mention of GYD. I used to fly these routes regularly and found them reasonably busy in both the front and back; have yields reduced so much that they could still not be supported by the former BMED A320 fleet ?

Probably more the issue that BA dont have the right aircraft to operate all these new routes and offer a consistent product. To offer ClubWorld services it would need to be a 767 or 777. The 777 is too big and the 767 are currently stretched on existing services. The frequency would need to drop significantly or there would need to be significant 767 reshuffling. BA dont do double drop routes. An Airbus is a perfect aircraft for these routes but it wouldnt suit BA.

Even though the 787 is supposedly "alright now", they are creeping out into service in such penny numbers per month that it is obviously going to be many years before any of the BA order turn up, regardless of what Boeing might promise. Therefore it does look like an A332/A321 mix is the best answer.

BA must be regretting selling all the 757s.

CabinCrewe - not strictly true BA, some Caribbean routes are double drop;but some of the Caspian routes cannot sustain a 767. I remember GYD and ALA were originally 767 routes from Gatwick, before BMED took them over and switched to the 320/1 and they were fitted out with the old Club World product

On past performance BA would certainly want a consistent longhaul product, which would imply a 767 or 777. Ideally they would probably want an aircraft with more cargo capacity than an A321 can offer.

It seems unlikely they have sufficient spare longhaul aircraft to replace the 320/321 on these routes and the plan appears to be that the 332s will be disposed of soon. But if they discontinue them there will be more uncovered slots to protect at LHR. Why close them unless the economic performance is shown to be unacceptable ?

There would seem to be a case for continuing them to see how they can perform under BA ownership. The A321 seems to be a good size in terms of passenger numbers, and BA will presumably make the decision whether or not to accept its limitations in the short to medium term.

LHR-FRU I believe started life as a BMed contract with a Canadian mining company. Does anyone know if those mining contracts still sustain the route ?

Some interesting views on BA expansion but is there not an issue with the lack of aircraft to undertake this extra work. In addition T5 at times cannot cope with the volume of arriving passengers as it is.

I am guessing that Heathrow East (T1 and T2) will also be full to capacity very soon after opening.

Advised that Heathrow to Rotterdam, Zagreb and, wait for it, Leeds have just been announced.

With the BMI slots will we see some of the lgw routes move to lhr ??

LHR - RTM ? Really?

Only a couple of years ago KL dropped this route. Was op by F50's.

Are you sure BA are not opening LCY - RTM?

Quote: "With the BMI slots will we see some of the lgw routes move to lhr ?? "

Wouldn't have thought so, flyer55, think it's more likely that these slots will be used for the expansion of long haul business routes and/or routes attracting transfer passengers, with some new routes opening up in the so-called "emerging" economies.

Some of the former BD routes will be kept if BA find them to be viable.

Suspect that the mostly point-to-point leisure routes will remain at LGW, as will some short haul to give U2 a "run for their money".

Could be wrong of course!

Fair Deal Frank
I believe you are correct in your assumption. In a question and answer session at the Q1 Results Session Willie Walsh says IAG and BA remain committed to Gatwick.

Some quotes from the session below:
"Gatwick is an opportunity for both BA and IAG.

Pleased with restructuring and believe there is growth opportunity for IAG within the Gatwick market.

The new [airport] owner has a brought more ambitious focus for Gatwick.

We believe particularly longhaul will provide us with some additional opportunities going forarwd, we're convinced Gatwick will continue to play an important part and believe there is more to exploit from our presence there.

Longhaul operation is very successful, with some feed from shorthaul, but typically very low. Rejigging our connecting feed to Heathrow creates opportunities for renewed network focus including the network at Gatwick.

We are absolutely committed to Gatwick, we've reduced scale over past few years but don't see further reduction. May well be opportunities to grow presence there through IAG developments and BA developments.

We believe there are opportunities at Gatwick, and these plans are in the £1.5bn 2015 target." ( I think this is a profit target)

So some positive news hopefully.

V.

Could we now be seeing BA utilise it's slots more effectively in the UK? I'm really pleased to see them looking at both UK and worldwide expansion.

MAN I would imagine is going to see more 767/A321 flights when they use some of the BD MAN-LHR slots for long haul/new European destinations.

Are we to see the same for GLA and EDI?

MUFC_fan:

As we see BA taking its 76x's off LH and quite commonly appearing in BCN, CPH and other major Euro destinations I think we can safely say they will begin to appear domestically too.

You notice how he did not mention short haul......

He did however mention about Gatwick longhaul having 'some feed from shorthaul' which could be increased if longhaul were to be expanded and this in turn would benefit the shorthaul routes to an extent. Although BA have been downsizing Gatwick shorthaul they seemed to have slowed down significantly recently and the 20-22 based shorthaul aircraft suggest that there is a market for BA on shorter routes and they prehaps need to look into markets where their more upmarket brand and product could help them to gain their own part of a market.

On a similar topic I could possibly see IAG's 'other' airlines Iberia possibly starting a LGW-MAD route fairly soon to make the most of Iberia's longhaul routes. Also worth considering that Madrid form Gatwick grew significantly last year and with Ryanair's pullout there should be a reasonable gap in the market. Either that or Air Europa and the Orange will add an extra flight or two!

However the commitment to Gatwick by IAG is good to hear of regardless and I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

Quote: "BA dont do double drop routes."

Quote: "CabinCrewe - not strictly true BA, some Caribbean routes are double drop"

Indeed, as are BAH/DOH and AUH/MCT out of LHR.


Quote: "LHR - RTM ? Really?"

Must admit, also found this a strange one.....but LBA and ZAG are very welcome new destinations!