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Old 15th Dec 2023, 17:29
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Originally Posted by MARK 101
Maybe I am reading this incorrectly but dont get Turkish reducing slots when an increase has already been announced. Also Play show passenger figures for 2023 or is it just slots held that show up
Turkish applied for more slots last summer, but didnt use them all, in fact they used 868, not 984. For Summer 2024 the slot report was in place before they had just announced their recent increase, so the 2024 slot report is therefore incorrect

Play also applied for slots in Summer 2023, and again never used them.
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Old 15th Dec 2023, 17:48
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Size of UK Airports - 31.10.23 v best ever figure

Current size compared to highest ever size



LHR – 77,856,986 down 3.9%

LGW – 40,036,572 down 14.2%

MAN – 27,584,978 down 6.4%

STN – 27,590,526 down 3.1%

EDI – 14,085,021 down 4.7%

LTN – 16,092,391 down 11.9%

BHX – 11,268,738 down 13.7%

BRS – 9,675,881 – highest ever

GLA – 7,213,623 down 27.2%

BFS – 5,686,701 down 12.6%

LPL – 4,074,279 down 19.8%

LBA – 3,935,737 down 3.6%

EMA – 3,852,179 down 21.%
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Old 15th Dec 2023, 22:45
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GLA - ouch 😮 and EDI's gain

BRS - hot on our heels, amazing figures for an airport that's (in terminal and apron size) small compared to BHX and boasts just 11 scheduled airlines (with no long haul) compared to BHX with 25 airlines. easyJet must really pile the pax through BRS!

Will be interesting to see how the stats work out in 2024 given the new EZY base at BHX + expansion by LS and FR amongst others
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 06:48
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Originally Posted by BHX5DME
Current size compared to highest ever size

LPL – 4,074,279 down 19.8%

LBA – 3,935,737 down 3.6%

EMA – 3,852,179 down 21.%
So is the figure the first ten months of 2023? If so, NCL is over 4.2m for this year. As the highest ever was 5.65m for 2007, will still be well down on that.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 07:14
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
So is the figure the first ten months of 2023?
No. It's the Moving Annual Total, i.e. the sum of the twelve months up to and including October 2023.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 07:31
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OK - found that table now!
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 07:33
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Originally Posted by Matt995
Turkish applied for more slots last summer, but didnt use them all, in fact they used 868, not 984. For Summer 2024 the slot report was in place before they had just announced their recent increase, so the 2024 slot report is therefore incorrect

Play also applied for slots in Summer 2023, and again never used them.
Some of the Turkish slots may be to Antayia and or Dalaman in addition to Istanbul .

Spicejet has a borrowed A340 from some dodgy Romanian outfit plus the consideration of operations with the 737NG via Turkey subject to available GOi authority - think the bilateral have unlimited frequency however but with seat capping in place.

Manchester is also said to be in consideration. (Doubt either will materialise imho)

Very modest growth projections to be honest

Some deck chair moves by the three Pan-European carriers (changes between country AOCs)

Malta/Austria/GB/Hungary ….


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Old 16th Dec 2023, 08:04
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Originally Posted by GayFriendly
GLA - ouch 😮 and EDI's gain

BRS - hot on our heels, amazing figures for an airport that's (in terminal and apron size) small compared to BHX and boasts just 11 scheduled airlines (with no long haul) compared to BHX with 25 airlines. easyJet must really pile the pax through BRS!

Will be interesting to see how the stats work out in 2024 given the new EZY base at BHX + expansion by LS and FR amongst others
If you look at the slot report that matt posted upthread you can see that FlyBe constituted nearly .5m pax, so its hardly surprising return to pre-pandemic figures has yet to be reached. Also to be taken into account is the decline in business traffic since covid that has hit the full service airlines. Just look at LCY figures.

BRS is leisure heavy and their catchment is rather more affluent than the West Midlands.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 08:24
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
If you look at the slot report that matt posted upthread you can see that FlyBe constituted nearly .5m pax, so its hardly surprising return to pre-pandemic figures has yet to be reached. Also to be taken into account is the decline in business traffic since covid that has hit the full service airlines. Just look at LCY figures.

BRS is leisure heavy and their catchment is rather more affluent than the West Midlands.
Think Bristol and Luton, given the airlines that operate must both be getting close to 100% Lfs on fairly low fares
given BHX long haul routes , it's a surprise we aren't doing better, but like all routes its actual revenue that counts
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 08:39
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Agreed about Flybe, they were a huge loss for BHX when they went under, of course not long before TCX went and prior to that ZB. So BHX has done well considering the hit it took losing three major carriers and that was before COVID decimated air travel in 2020 and for a long time after.....

S24 is looking positive at BHX with a good range of increased frequencies and new destinations plus Pegasus as a new carrier. BHX has clearly had a major strategy rethink in terms of it's approach to route development. It has clearly struck a good deal with FR and has pulled a blinder with the EZY base. Those 3 aircraft could have easily been redeployed to existing bases

As for BRS, don't run away with the idea it's about an affluent catchment. Parts of Bristol and west Somerset (Weston, Bridgwater etc) are as deprived as parts of the West Midlands. I think BRS figures are good because the airport also pulls in huge footfall from Cardiff and south Wales, given that Cardiff airport has such la limited range of flights
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 08:59
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Bristol's catchment will spread as far as afluent towns such as Newbury and Bath to the east, Cheltenham to the north, the whole southwestern peninsula and of course Wales which with the slow decline of CWL now has BRS as its principal departure point. Of course all these areas also have their less well of areas, but if you just take house prices as a (rather poor) yardstick many are way more wealthy than Birmingham, Coventry. Sandwell, Stoke etc. More wealth generally means greater disposable income.

BHX is really not doing too badly, probably at least as well as could be expected, though without doubt not as well as most would wish.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 09:08
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I agree, at one stage NCL and BRS were very similar in terms of passenger numbers - while the impact of airline failures etc play their part, the overwhelming factor is the underlying economics of the relative catchment areas.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 11:24
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The catchment area if an individual airport is so difficult to geographically define these days as the UK is a relatively small country and so many airports within easy reach of so many. My nearest airport is BHX (I live in Worcester) and I always research flights from there first but in the past 18 months I've also flown from MAN, BRS, STN and LTN none of which I consider to be in their catchment areas based on where I live. My decision to fly from these airports varied - mostly to do with flight times, frequency of flights and days I needed to travel and destination.

BRS strength is that it is the only relatively easily reached 'major' airport for South Wales, Somerset, Devon and Cornwall (relatively affluent areas). BHX being in the middle of the UK doesn't have claim to an individual area to mop up passengers from and yes, big parts of its geographically close populated areas are very deprived.

BRS on the other hand (like BHX) also suffers from the proximity of LHR, particularly for those living in Wiltshire and Berkshire its as easy to get to LHR as BRS both driving and on public transport.

I would wager it's also just as easy to get to BHX from Cheltenham and Gloucester as to BRS. If working properly you can get from Cheltenham to BHX by train in just over an hour much the same as catching the train to Temple Meads then the bus to BRS . As for road access to BRS, we all know how bad that is!

I wonder if easyJet will see some leakage of pax north of Bristol to BHX?

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Old 16th Dec 2023, 12:06
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GayFriendly,

With regard to leakage of EZY passengers from BRS to BHX I reckon thats a dead cert.

If BRS is close to being 'full' it could well be one of the reasons for opening the BHX base, but I doubt we'll ever find out.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 12:16
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Originally Posted by GayFriendly
The catchment area if an individual airport is so difficult to geographically define these days as the UK is a relatively small country and so many airports within easy reach of so many. My nearest airport is BHX (I live in Worcester) and I always research flights from there first but in the past 18 months I've also flown from MAN, BRS, STN and LTN none of which I consider to be in their catchment areas based on where I live. My decision to fly from these airports varied - mostly to do with flight times, frequency of flights and days I needed to travel and destination.

BRS strength is that it is the only relatively easily reached 'major' airport for South Wales, Somerset, Devon and Cornwall (relatively affluent areas). BHX being in the middle of the UK doesn't have claim to an individual area to mop up passengers from and yes, big parts of its geographically close populated areas are very deprived.

BRS on the other hand (like BHX) also suffers from the proximity of LHR, particularly for those living in Wiltshire and Berkshire its as easy to get to LHR as BRS both driving and on public transport.

I would wager it's also just as easy to get to BHX from Cheltenham and Gloucester as to BRS. If working properly you can get from Cheltenham to BHX by train in just over an hour much the same as catching the train to Temple Meads then the bus to BRS . As for road access to BRS, we all know how bad that is!

I wonder if easyJet will see some leakage of pax north of Bristol to BHX?
Other than second home ents Cornwall is among most deprived places in Europe as are the Welsh Valleys for that matter . Plymouth and Exeter has sizable areas of deprivations as well.

Wealth in England and Wales (excluding London) is concentrated along the M4 /M3 Corridors North and East of Basingstoke , with enclaves around the fringes of South Manchester and between Birmingham and Banbury. and around Milton Keynes.

That said all four London Airports ( not City) have advantages in depth of services available supporting inward travel that are mitigating of traditional concepts of catchment ( determined as up to 2 hour travel radius) Only Manchester comes close to competing with them.

That said more generally Bristol has done exceptionally well in recent years mainly down to Easy in tapping into some the M4 corridor clientele west of Newbury and indeed the burgeoning middle classes nearer the city itself. I don’t believe although don’t have the numbers to support it, that traffic from Wales southern coast line is a massively significant factor.

Many that have the wherewithal are I expect on the GWR to those London Airports to be honest.

However you try to square it Birmingham underperforms that is for sure and lack of local support surely doesn’t help in reaching the point of self sustaining growth .

Like Manchester, through now history both made strategic mistakes at the beginning of the millennium in recognition of the changed face of mass travel and as created by the flexible fares and lower operating cost models .

I believe the shock of BA withdrawal were both unplanned or recognised in their business plans. And it took a further decade to restore that impact , indeed both airports are only now delivering the necessary infrastructure needed to address these changed fortunes. Both have have sustained credible consumer criticism over the last few years .

Some of the growth at Bristol and until COVID at Liverpool may be a consequence of that disappointment alone. All of the early century growth at Liverpool was down to MAG negligence of the market.
#
Rant over .


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Old 16th Dec 2023, 12:21
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
GayFriendly,

With regard to leakage of EZY passengers from BRS to BHX I reckon thats a dead cert.

If BRS is close to being 'full' it could well be one of the reasons for opening the BHX base, but I doubt we'll ever find out.
Bristol currently has a plan to further increase parking terminal and car parking potential and to remap the old terminal ramp for larger aircraft.

As it happens I have a tender for concrete and fire stopping works for this on my desk . Some of the fire stopping and protection works are subject to significant qualifications and potential delay in light of the Luton incident through.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 13:38
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I've always been surprised, as a largely armchair traveller, by the fact that BHX isn't much more popular as it has direct trains via B'ham International, from the vast majority of the UK. Often every hour.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 13:48
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Originally Posted by inOban
I've always been surprised, as a largely armchair traveller, by the fact that BHX isn't much more popular as it has direct trains via B'ham International, from the vast majority of the UK. Often every hour.
Last time I arrived at Birmingham International station I was struck by just how many passengers use the train to get to BHX already, many more than I thought might, but the big problem with rail is it is so expensive over long distances. I also don't know just how much the public actually know about where they can catch direct trains to Birmingham International from.
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 17:17
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
Last time I arrived at Birmingham International station I was struck by just how many passengers use the train to get to BHX already, many more than I thought might, but the big problem with rail is it is so expensive over long distances. I also don't know just how much the public actually know about where they can catch direct trains to Birmingham International from.
Again it’s the lack of viable options and range of services .Chicken and egg as it were .

Avanti, WestMidlands/London Northwestern, some cross country service via Coventry and Leamington to the south coast and north to Manchester . TFW to Shrewsbury and alternating to Aberystwyth or Chester . Cross town to Rugeley Trent and of course almost anywhere else with a change at New Street .

Other than the East Midlands and that’s a potentially sizeable market to tap into the rail network is pretty impressive, but remember the airport isn’t the primary driver for the station , that remains the adjoining the exhibition centre.
The current station to terminal isn’t exactly walking distance
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Old 16th Dec 2023, 19:56
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Rutan16

Totally agree with your comments about BA and the after effects for BHX after their withdrawal.

I worked at BHX whilst BA/Maersk operated a fairly sizeable European operation. There was no plan in place if they withdrew as no one believed they would. Instead everyone believed that BHX and BA would always be in bed together and sneered at these pesky new low cost airlines who they thought would only ever operate limited marginal flights from what they saw as secondary airports like East Mids and Bristol. When BA eventually pulled out, as you rightly say, it was a HUGE and unexpected shock and took years for BHX to recover as there was no interest from FR, EZY, GO as by this stage, these pesky low cost airlines were in fact doing very well indeed from East Mids, Bristol, Liverpool, Luton etc. ....BHX had well and truly caught a cold. They half heartedly tried to catch up a few years later with My Travel Lite but this didn't last long and in any case, by now fast growing numbers of Midlanders were getting used to travelling to a growing LTN plus the aforementioned airports to take advantage of cheap flights to destinations available from them but not from BHX. OK BHX boasted carriers and routes these upstarts didn't (I'm thinking legacy Euro and EK, TK, CO etc) but these didn't provide the huge growth in pax numbers and routes that the low cost gang did, particularly at BRS, LPL, STN and LTN. Trouble was the thought process and attitudes of BHX management were stuck in the late 80's / early 90's for too long and the airport failed to adapt quickly enough to what was a seismic change in air travel in the UK from the mid 90's. It lost ground to airports that were mere minnows in the 80's and early 90's but who were by the late 90's (and beyond) making huge gains on BHX

Fast forward to 2023 and yes BHX has made huge strides forward but still underperforms considering it's location. However IMO it has a decent roster if airlines and routes thanks to a change in approach to all aspects of business model and credit to the route development team have certainly proved their worth - Pegasus, easyJet, Saudia, SunExpress, plus the return of Aegean, Qatar, and a clearly a much better relationship with FR, all in the last 12 months. BHX has also retained its legacy Euro carriers despite COVID and the decline in business travel and has good links to the Indian sub continent. There is a lot to be happy about. But one wonders where the airport would be now had it not been so short sighted and instead had been more appreciative and open to the low cost revolution of the 90's and hadn't had such a dismissive attitude to this and the airports who did embrace and grew so strongly because of it.

​​​
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