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Birmingham-8

Old 19th Nov 2020, 12:07
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Birmingham-8

Airport Slot Allocations and Impacts on BHX

What we know with regard to the changes to our surrounding context and catchment is as follows:

Bristol - a new 3/4 aircraft Jet2 base is to open up at BRS operating circa 30 new routes. This is confirmed. What appears to be the case is that this is Jet2 going after the market that was utilised by Thomas Cook before they went belly up, wit routes primarily to Greece, Turley and Canaries. This is a risk given the proximity to BHX that this will impact on market share out of BHX. However, as we haven't had a (normal) summer season since Thomas Cooks collapse, we have no way of knowing what impact this will have. This is something worth considering but there is a concern that all the jet2 customers that travelled to BHX from wales and the southwest no longer need to but i have no idea how big that market was...

Manchester - the ACL Slot report has been release and shown the following airline have applied for the following:

= Aer LIngus - a 4 a/c base operating long haul routes to the USA (1x A330 and 3x A321LR)
= Wizz Air - a 4 a/c base operating across europe (4x A321s)
= Ryanair - increase their base at MAN by adding an additional 5x a/c to their existing base

Its worth nothing that these are purely slot allocation to date. All of the above could happen, all of the above could never see the light of day. until flights are formally announced and on sale, its always hard to tell. Obviously there is concern that such growth f it did occur at MAN would have significant consequence on BHX, with the Wizz base also have major consequences on LPL and DSA. Again, until anything formally is announced, nothing is fixed. This could be airlines hedging their bets in the wake of the covid crisis or genuine plans.

Birmingham - similar to the above, the ACL Slot report has been release and shown the following airline have applied for the following:

= Easyjet - applied for 24x additional weekly departures for S21 compared to their proposed S20 schedule taking them to 72x departures a week (+50% on S20)
= Ryanair - applied for 35x additional weekly departures for S21 compared to their proposed S20 schedule them to186x departures a week (+26% on S20)

Unfortunately there are no additional Wizz application beyond the 4x new routes we already know about.

Other interesting inclusions on the report

= Aegean Airlines - application for 2x weekly flights to ATH
= Air India - applied to increase to 8x weekly flights
= CSA Czech Airlines - applied for daily flights to PRG
= Loganair - applied for 29x weekly flights. We know about ABZ and INV but this will also include IOM

And finally....

= Flybe - have been allowed to retain over 600 slots or 300 weekly flights

Again, as above, these are purely slot applications. All of the above could happen, all of the above could never see the light of day. in this day and age we will never know.one thing i find interesting is that even after years of stagnation, for Ryanair to proposed an additional 35-40 weekly flights and an increase of their BHX operations by 25% is big shock. but will it happen? What is clear is that with covid, a lot of airports have a lot of extract space space than before. With several airline collapses and the news the 737M could be back flying in 2021, there is also a lot of aircraft on the market and under utilised that need to be put somewhere.

some interesting time ahead that is for sure!!!!

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Old 19th Nov 2020, 12:15
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Just an addition to Manchester Easyjet are planning for 25 based for next summer with rumours that the Liverpool operation might close
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Old 19th Nov 2020, 13:22
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Just to be clear, that is an unsubstantiated rumour. As regards the base, the ACL report refers to 21 based a/c, which doesn't seem to be fully supported by the number of weekly departures. As others have pointed out, there can be a huge gulf between initial slot applications and what eventually happens, be it at BHX or MAN or elsewhere.
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Old 19th Nov 2020, 13:45
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Yes I know not confirmed yet and of couse many won`t happen
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Old 19th Nov 2020, 14:16
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one thing i find interesting is that even after years of stagnation, for Ryanair to proposed an additional 35-40 weekly flights and an increase of their BHX operations by 25% is big shock. but will it happen?
I think FR are probably doing this type of increased, speculative slot application at many of their base airports as a negotiating tool to get rock bottom deals - in other words look what we can do to help you increase traffic as long as you do us a deal or we will expand elsewhere - isn't this always how they have 'negotiated' with airports?

But will this happen at BHX? I doubt it but with expansion at LTN, BRS and MAN by a number of airlines already either confirmed or very strongly rumoured, BHX needs to act fast - remember it lost Flybe just before the Covid shit really hit the fan and very little of that capacity or routes has been replaced (or is even being planned to), so BHX is already very much on the backfoot for 2021 even without taking Covid into account.

This is what MOL had to say in an interview with Anna Aero this week:

Rapid recovery for airports will go to those airport operators who are swift and responsive and which come up with the right traffic growth incentives.” “We have to make aircraft allocation decisions for S21. We’re finalising our schedules, that’s why we’re in active discussion with progressive airports.”

“Stansted and Manchester get it”, O’Leary said, likewise “airports in Eastern and Central Europe, in Italy, Beauvais [a new base that opens in January 2021]…” Growth at such airports – and others like them – for next summer is probably assured.
Only time will tell if BHX 'gets it'.....

If a vaccine does become widely available over the next 6-8 months (looking ever more likely) and the Govt. doesn't cock up the logistics of getting it out and administered to the public, then I think Summer 21 will see a huge amount of pent up demand for short haul travel and holidays and those airports who have got a competitive mix of airlines, routes and frequencies in place will recover quickly and strongly, leaving those who are still in the doldrums in their wake.
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Old 19th Nov 2020, 16:28
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Navpi

Dont necessarily link Wizz with Eastern Europe .They talked of the Gatwick base to operate Med routes ,so think they are looking beyond their traditional markets.
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Old 29th Nov 2020, 16:35
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Update

Emirates daily pushed back a week

Turkish - back to 3 a week this week although the 789 skips a week with the next one Monday 7th December

Air India - despite I believe excellent loads, it skips at least week next week at the very least

Wizz - quickly reinstated some Bucharest rotations with one operating today, Wednesday and next Sunday as well the usual Friday and the Monday service restarts next Monday. Craiova, Cluj and the new Iasi service are all brought forward a week - starting 11th December onwards

Ryanair - several routes due to restart after lockdown pushed back to the week commencing 13 December

Aer Lingus - Belfast City seems to return to double daily from Tuesday and Dublin increases to 5 per week next week and then 6 per week

KLM - Mainline are back from Thursday night and then both flights from next Monday but no change with Air France still February. LH FRA continues at 8-9 a week and Eurowings DUS 2 a week

easyjet - Belfast increases from this Friday to 5 per week then 10 per week the following week. Although Edinburgh and Glasgow restart 18th December both end again 3 January until February 1st

Loganair - Should be back Monday 7th on a combined Aberdeen & Inverness

No noticeable reaction to the Tier 3 announcement from Jet2 or TUI and both restart Wednesday on slimdown operations. Jet2 - Antalya (3 to start 4 by Christmas), Fuerteventura(1 moving to 2), Las Palmas (2 per week & 5 by Christmas), Arrecife (4 per week & 5 by Christmas), Tenerife daily moving to 10 per week by Christmas and Funchel Monday 7th then Friday as well later in the month. There are still ski routes from Saturday 19th at the moment (GNB, GVA, INN & SZG).

TUI -
The Canaries start Thursday with Las Palmas (MON as well) and Arrecife (Sunday as well) Friday Tenerife (Sunday & Tuesday as well) and Fuerteventura (Saturday & Wed 9th).

Punta Cana is shown for 8th December and Cancun 14 December and Bridgetown 20th - all remain to be seen.

Egypt (HRG, RMF & SSH) all delayed at least 2 weeks to at mid December and the same for Cape Verde (SID & BVC).
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Old 19th Dec 2020, 14:53
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Slightly positive to see Easyjet Swiis back today on Geneva, although whether it will last the season remains to be seen. Interestingly Blue Air have a Bucharest rotation tonight at 0020 departing 0120 ! Presumably Romanians returning home for Christmas, but hardly sociable timings, cant imagine BHX staff are very keen considering theres no other passenger flights after about 2100
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Old 23rd Dec 2020, 18:11
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JET2 SHOWS SUMMER 2021 CONFIDENCE WITH 135 MORE FLIGHTS TO GREECE[Jet2 has added 135 extra flights to Greece next summer in response to “continued demand”.

The additions will be from Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds Bradford and Stansted airports. Extra services will operate to Corfu, Kefalonia, Crete (Heraklion), Kos, Santorini, Rhodes and Zante.

The biggest increase is from Birmingham, where there are 60 extra weekly services to Corfu, Kefalonia, Heraklion, Kos and Rhodes.

From Manchester there are another 50 weekly services to Corfu, Kefalonia, Santorini, Zante and Kos.

Leeds Bradford will boast 18 additional services to Kefalonia and Kos, while Stansted will see six additional services added to Zante in response to demand.

The capacity hike comes after Jet2 recently revealed Bristol as its 10th UK base.

“The launch of a new UK base for summer 21, followed by this Greek expansion, demonstrates the company’s confidence and underlines its long-term strategy to become the UK’s leading leisure travel business,” Jet2 said.

Steve Heapy, Jet2.com and Jet2holidays chief executive, added: “Customers are telling us that flights and holidays to Greece are very much in demand for summer 21.

“As ever, we have responded quickly to that demand by adding more seats and holidays on sale to seven fantastic Greek destinations, and we know that they will be extremely popular
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 12:34
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Turkish

What a surprise, on the day they announce Antalya from MAN the BHX flight disappears from sale.
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 14:43
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Turkish

Hi chinapattern, are you sure, as the last time I checked BHX-AYT was not on sale - I check most weeks but thought they were removed a while ago but could be wrong.

Emirates 10 a week from 3rd July with EK37 Saturday Monday & Wednesday. I assume lack of aircraft why it hasn't run over Christmas not lack of pax.

Latest as of Saturday evening so probably completely changed.

Wizz - Budapest operates hopefully next Sunday but then March

Rix - Monday 4th then March

Vilnius - Next 2 Tuesdays & Saturdays then March

Krakow - as above

Warsaw - Inbound operating today then Friday, 4/1 then weekly Friday until March

Wroclaw - next 4/1 then 8/1 and then 12/2

Bucharest - Wednesday possibly, Friday 1/1 then three a week from Monday 4th (MWF)

Cluj - Friday, then Monday 4th then Friday 8th weekly

Craiova - next Saturday Tuesday 5th Saturday 9th then 9th Feb

Iasi -next Sunday then 10 January before stopping until 7 Feb

Jet2 - next outbound 6th or 7th February Madeira weekly, Arrecife 3pw, Las Palmas 4 but then dropping to 2, Tenerife 8 dropping to 5. Fuerteventura showing 13 Feb

Ryanair - Several changes coming up but this week is mainly as planned - will add a separate post later or tomorrow but seem to ending the Canaries until February

easyjet - No noticeable changes with Edinburgh & Glasgow ending next Sunday until February, Geneva stated to restart next Saturday. Belfast is double daily except Tu & Wed

Lufthansa - difficult as operating one wat but Monday, Wednesday lunch is bookable inbound and two next Sunday A319;s from Saturday

Eurowings - suspended until 1st February

SAS - Next 2 Mondays listed then March

KLM - 2 inbounds & 1 outbound most days at least but Wednesday there are 3 inbounds, 1 Thursday, 2 Friday & 3 the weekend

Aer Lingus - Belfast double daily ex Sat and Dublin continues inbound only with passengers until the 1st and outbound is shown

TUI - outbound suspended until 6th Fuerteventura (2), Arrecife & Las Palmas (2) from 7th and Tenerife (2) 8th. Long-haul, Cape Verde & Egypt delayed 3rd week in January

Loganair - back 1st February,

Blue Island - tomorrow Wednesday & next Sunday bookable then 1st February

Blue Air - cancelled?

Turkish - A321 this afternoon , Thursday & Friday cancelled Saturday & Sunday 737 and two Monday week one the 789

Emirates - 10 per week 3rd July

Air India - In Googleflights on sale next Friday/Saturday but means little
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Old 28th Dec 2020, 19:39
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Any info about Ryanair and Canaries appreciated Pete. Due to fly with them to Tenerife on Feb 13th but would prefer a cancellation and voucher/refund given the Covid situation
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Old 1st Jan 2021, 17:36
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Birmingham 2020 Arrival Stats (per FR24)

Happy New Year All,

I have attached 2 spreadsheets showing the 2020 Passenger Arrival Statistics for Birmingham, with information taken from flightradar24 (FR24), obviously I can’t claim its 100% accurate, but it should be reasonably accurate.

PDF 1 shows:-
number of arrivals by aircraft registration (Flybe E75s still claim 5 of the top 6 arrivals!)
arrivals by aircraft type & registration
arrivals by aircraft type, (the 738 counts for 38.5% of all arrivals, followed by the A320 at 12.09%)
arrivals by airlines, Ryanair (20.99%), Flybe (15.63%) and Jet2 (11.85%) lead the way.
arrivals by destination, Amsterdam (8.9%), Dublin (8.4%), and Frankfurt (4%) are the top 3.

PDF 2, contains 2 pie charts, showing total passenger arrivals by aircraft type, and airline.

Attached Files
File Type: pdf
BHX 2020 Arrival Stats 1.pdf (1.21 MB, 50 views)
File Type: pdf
BHX 2020 Arrival Stats 2.pdf (1.15 MB, 24 views)
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Old 1st Jan 2021, 20:15
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An extremely comprehensive set of reports Matt995. That must have taken some effort and is much appreciated.
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Old 5th Jan 2021, 12:48
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SAS A333

SAS are basing an Airbus 330-300 at BHX from today to operate two cargo flights a day to Brussels.

BHX is booming on the freight side at the moment
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Old 8th Jan 2021, 19:13
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Qatar

Info courtesy of SPD Travels on Twitter:

"Unconfirmed at this time, but I’ve now been told by several different sources that Qatar airways is indeed cutting Birmingham and Cardiff. Both routes may return in 2022, but despite still being bookable, are apparently not in the 2021 plans. Hopefully clarification soon."
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Old 12th Jan 2021, 19:31
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Qatar/EK/Loganair

This seems to be the general opinion from various sources but rather naughty if correct as still on sale for 27th March which to be fair hasn't looked likely or realistic for over a month or so now.

On the positive side Loganair start Isle of Man on 2nd April 4 times a week on the E145 then daily from the 22nd May and should change to the ATR72. Aberdeen and Inverness pushed back until 1st March

Initial reports on EK is good and only a reduction to 5 a week for a short period - Monday and Wednesday are the non-ops days from 20 Jan to 8 Feb but no doubt will get extended

An odd one and I am sure will change but Air France is still bookable next Monday for a restart albeit very infrequent.

Jet2 have gone further than Ryanair cancelling all flights to the end of March. Ryanair at BHX was not far behind that anyway from next Tuesday with just a twice a week Dublin and a few Canaries flights over half-term with the rest of schedule already gone until the end of March.

Last edited by OltonPete; 13th Jan 2021 at 19:28.
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Old 13th Jan 2021, 16:51
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Just had an e-mail from Ryanair moving our flight to Tenerife on 13th Feb to East Midlands. We were never going to go and were just waiting on Ryanair to cancel it anyway so we could get a refund
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Old 13th Jan 2021, 17:57
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Originally Posted by OltonPete View Post
This seems to be the general opinion from various sources but rather naughty if correct as still on sale for 27th March which to be fair hasn't looked likely or realistic for over a month or so now.
Interesting. I have just been pricing a Thailand flight and hotel for later in the year, via British Airways Holidays, flying > BA5806, < BA5805 opb Qatar. The Club prices are very attractive, as are the opportunities to earn BA miles and Tier Points. It will be disappointing to see this alternative to EK disappear.
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