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Etihad only fly direct to 22 European destinations, even less which are year round. London (LHR) and Manchester (MAN) are the only 2 UK routes flown. Spain is the only country in Europe with 3 routes with year round routes to Madrid (MAD) and Barcelona (BCN) and a season summer route to Malaga (AGP). In the event they were looking for a 3rd UK route, returning to Edinburgh (EDI) would be obvious choice with Gatwick (LGW) also looking attractive to get more London capacity. BHX would be way down the list in my eye.
Etihad have now refocused and re-branded itself along the lines of a boutique airline similar to the likes of Gulf and Oman Airways and i think that is the right decision for them. Out of BHX, Etihad doesn't have the capacity or route network to comepete with EK, QR and TK and doesn't have the cost base and government support the lines of SV have in capturing market share.
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Agreed, if EY look at a new UK route it will be EDI, it has been rumoured to restart in 2024.
For BHX, I suspect QR will eventually bring in a bigger aircraft or go twice daily on the 787 and I can see Saudia doing more upgrades to the 787-10, availability permitting and perhaps adding another frequency.
In the long term, Kuwait Airways may be a possibility, they have vaguely mentioned BHX in the past. Gulf Air at present simply don't have the aircraft availability and Oman Air haven't even returned to MAN after the pandemic.
For BHX, I suspect QR will eventually bring in a bigger aircraft or go twice daily on the 787 and I can see Saudia doing more upgrades to the 787-10, availability permitting and perhaps adding another frequency.
In the long term, Kuwait Airways may be a possibility, they have vaguely mentioned BHX in the past. Gulf Air at present simply don't have the aircraft availability and Oman Air haven't even returned to MAN after the pandemic.
If you wanted to do some 'kite flying' Ethiopian might be slightly more likely than Etihad.
Still an extremely long shot mind you.
Still an extremely long shot mind you.
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For what it's worth I read on line an article in a travel magazine with Qatar about 4 weeks ago where they stated that wold like to re-instate CWL but want to go double daily BHX as soon as they have the capacity. Interesting emphasis I thought.
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I've heard from a number of different sources, QR has always aspired to go 2x daily from BHX in order to truly and effectively compete with EK. The only way they can effectively do this is to have 2x daily departures which connect into the 2x waves of departures in DOH throughout the week. At the moment, this isnt possible with the mix of morning and lunchtime departures at the moment.
This is backed up by a) there being 2 different flight numbers between BHX-DOH and b) the ACL slot allocations allows for 2x daily flights. I believe this is still largely driven by aircraft availability so once the aircraft come available, i would impact they will slowly up capacity from 7 -> 10 -> 14 times weekly. Will be keeping an eye on their March 24 schedule if LF continue to remain heathy over the next few months...
With regard to any new Carriers, having QR/SV start in 2023, im not in a rush to get any new airlines on the deck as am happy to let these guys bed in, but as for new short/medium terms MH/LH stuff to look out for...?
This is backed up by a) there being 2 different flight numbers between BHX-DOH and b) the ACL slot allocations allows for 2x daily flights. I believe this is still largely driven by aircraft availability so once the aircraft come available, i would impact they will slowly up capacity from 7 -> 10 -> 14 times weekly. Will be keeping an eye on their March 24 schedule if LF continue to remain heathy over the next few months...
With regard to any new Carriers, having QR/SV start in 2023, im not in a rush to get any new airlines on the deck as am happy to let these guys bed in, but as for new short/medium terms MH/LH stuff to look out for...?
- Pegasus - Lowcost but offers great connections through SAW and would offer some nice capacity for istanbul
- Play - Same as the above but going west for the first time in while. Also, whilst Jet2 offer BHX-KEF for a majority of the year, be good to get this year round rout back
- Air India - Long rumoured to be planning significant expansion from BHX, would defo be good to see DEL go daily and BOM 3x weekly added alongside existing ATQ route
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Pegasus would be a great addition! Their connections via SAW are extensive
Play keep putting slot requests in so BHX is on their radar but not enough to commit.....
AI have made it very public that they wish to aggressively expand so I'd be surprised if there was no further growth from them at BHX, although they must also be looking at MAN
Ethiopian, I wouldn't not bet on them starting but in the longer term, not in next few years . Would also put a punt on EgyptAir as well in the next 5 years or so
Play keep putting slot requests in so BHX is on their radar but not enough to commit.....
AI have made it very public that they wish to aggressively expand so I'd be surprised if there was no further growth from them at BHX, although they must also be looking at MAN
Ethiopian, I wouldn't not bet on them starting but in the longer term, not in next few years . Would also put a punt on EgyptAir as well in the next 5 years or so
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The big pinchpoint of the day is during the 0700z hour and even that still has slots.
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Qatar always does this in order to have flexibility. They do it also at other European airports. If QR increase frequency at BHX next year, I would expect 10 weekly to start, but for that they will apply for twice daily slots. I notice that at EDI they have been twice daily this summer but with an overall downgrade in size of aircraft.
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Assuming this is to do with pax loads? If so, this route has performed extremely well in a very short space of time. Will be interesting to see Aug and SEP LF"s. On the Saudia website, BHX fares are often the highest out of their 4 UK departure points.
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100% full inbound today
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Everything to do with pilgrims in the back, with BAe and other military contractors middle and front and their boxes in the basement .
And just a little connecting traffic via the consolidators to Pakistan and Bangladesh filling the back.
And seriously do I have to comment on alcohol on a flight into Saudi
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Unlikely to be that many umrah pilgrims at this time of year because of the heat in Mecca. BAe’s main Saudi connection is at Warton in Lancashire so I do not think the success is connected with them above or below deck. I believe that connections to Pakistan are the major driver.
I guess a visual survey of the check in queue would give a reasonable idea of what the principal driver for Saudia loads is.
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Unlikely to be that many umrah pilgrims at this time of year because of the heat in Mecca. BAe’s main Saudi connection is at Warton in Lancashire so I do not think the success is connected with them above or below deck. I believe that connections to Pakistan are the major driver.