Manchester-3
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I can see your point absolutely. Other airports have been through this before - but especially in the cases of GLA and BHX they were during periods of consolidation - to EDI and LHR specifically.
For BHX, they (and the other regional airports bar MAN) lost United because practically they reviewed most of their 757 TATL routes, and it was ‘upgauge or chop’.
For MAN, I feel different to be honest - B6, UA, AA have come particularly close to adding/re-adding MAN since COVID. UA was almost a dead cert for 2023 but this is now an XLR resumption. It is believed that B6 were to start in 2024 - AA are waiting on A321s, they have signalled their intent to return with slot requests in S21 and S22 being open for the public . Delta will return if/whenever EI or B6 launch BOS, they love a game of retaliation.
I absolutely agree with your point on Norse. IMHO they will be the catalyst needed to kickstart some actual restoration. The intent is there from most carriers, but the commitment is hard to secure. I’m not saying necessarily we’ll return to the levels of the TCX heyday, but the fact that MAN still beats EDI at a high/low point for both airports does suggest that the ratio will swing back in MAN’s favour. The fact that EDI, MAN & LHR are equidistant from each other will be of benefit. GLA, BHX, BRS have lost out because of proximity.
For BHX, they (and the other regional airports bar MAN) lost United because practically they reviewed most of their 757 TATL routes, and it was ‘upgauge or chop’.
For MAN, I feel different to be honest - B6, UA, AA have come particularly close to adding/re-adding MAN since COVID. UA was almost a dead cert for 2023 but this is now an XLR resumption. It is believed that B6 were to start in 2024 - AA are waiting on A321s, they have signalled their intent to return with slot requests in S21 and S22 being open for the public . Delta will return if/whenever EI or B6 launch BOS, they love a game of retaliation.
I absolutely agree with your point on Norse. IMHO they will be the catalyst needed to kickstart some actual restoration. The intent is there from most carriers, but the commitment is hard to secure. I’m not saying necessarily we’ll return to the levels of the TCX heyday, but the fact that MAN still beats EDI at a high/low point for both airports does suggest that the ratio will swing back in MAN’s favour. The fact that EDI, MAN & LHR are equidistant from each other will be of benefit. GLA, BHX, BRS have lost out because of proximity.
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This has turned into a right wankfest.
It's not a competition Manchester beating Edinburgh, but if you wish to view it that way 36% of wide body movements are to Orlando/MLB. Manchester has 8 North America routes, Edinburgh 10.
There is no route development fund in Scotland and has not been for several years.
any Marketing assistance from "visit Scotland" would or should be available from Visit England and if not why not
It's not a competition Manchester beating Edinburgh, but if you wish to view it that way 36% of wide body movements are to Orlando/MLB. Manchester has 8 North America routes, Edinburgh 10.
There is no route development fund in Scotland and has not been for several years.
any Marketing assistance from "visit Scotland" would or should be available from Visit England and if not why not
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I think Lavistions points do hold some value particularly the core New York and Atlanta routes in capacity over frequency YEAR ROUND and associated market dynamics viewed from a point of sale ( UK perspective)
As for a competition there is certainly some at play both Airport operators are having to pitch to the same customers (airlines not individual organic blobs) and their associated assets.
Visit Scotland has a significant funding and global team dedicated to the Sale of Edinburgh Castle, tartan, golf, Nessie, The Highlands, Shortbread and Whisky and also jumping on the Hogwarts bandwagon It’s an enticing offering for a relatively short holiday for many a vacation starved American.
Problem is the target market is fickle and recidivist visits are not at all guaranteed. Another shiny thing will be round the corner soon enough.
As for Visit England well we all know they only care about London and day trips to Shakespeare land via a marketing opportunity at Bicester !
Going to point out there is evidently some softening in the underlining Edinburgh market . Delta and Air Canada both reducing or canning the shoulder season and frequencies.
No disrespect to Edinburgh however I would not expect much further growth beyond 2024 here.
Now as for Manchester the days of Thomas Cook sure there isn’t a replacement for them anytime soon in the UK marketplace it’s similar in Dusseldorf with the loss of Air Berlin and the shift of much of Condor operations and the Lufthansa JFK to Frankfurt .
Caveat Manchester actually has done rather better than Dusseldorf in retaining core routes namely New York and Atlanta post Covid .Indeed Virgin recommenced New York the very day restrictions were lifted !
Although I expressed concerns about the UK US air transport agreement a little while ago and others satisfied those concerns I do expect 2025 to see at least two new services from Manchester and one on a US carrier to resume.
Disappointments in the immediacy is not securing JetBlue through.
As for Norse not sure I have an opinion on them one way or another to be honest
As for a competition there is certainly some at play both Airport operators are having to pitch to the same customers (airlines not individual organic blobs) and their associated assets.
Visit Scotland has a significant funding and global team dedicated to the Sale of Edinburgh Castle, tartan, golf, Nessie, The Highlands, Shortbread and Whisky and also jumping on the Hogwarts bandwagon It’s an enticing offering for a relatively short holiday for many a vacation starved American.
Problem is the target market is fickle and recidivist visits are not at all guaranteed. Another shiny thing will be round the corner soon enough.
As for Visit England well we all know they only care about London and day trips to Shakespeare land via a marketing opportunity at Bicester !
Going to point out there is evidently some softening in the underlining Edinburgh market . Delta and Air Canada both reducing or canning the shoulder season and frequencies.
No disrespect to Edinburgh however I would not expect much further growth beyond 2024 here.
Now as for Manchester the days of Thomas Cook sure there isn’t a replacement for them anytime soon in the UK marketplace it’s similar in Dusseldorf with the loss of Air Berlin and the shift of much of Condor operations and the Lufthansa JFK to Frankfurt .
Caveat Manchester actually has done rather better than Dusseldorf in retaining core routes namely New York and Atlanta post Covid .Indeed Virgin recommenced New York the very day restrictions were lifted !
Although I expressed concerns about the UK US air transport agreement a little while ago and others satisfied those concerns I do expect 2025 to see at least two new services from Manchester and one on a US carrier to resume.
Disappointments in the immediacy is not securing JetBlue through.
As for Norse not sure I have an opinion on them one way or another to be honest
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I think Lavistions points do hold some value particularly the core New York and Atlanta routes in capacity over frequency YEAR ROUND and associated market dynamics viewed from a point of sale ( UK perspective)
As for a competition there is certainly some at play both Airport operators are having to pitch to the same customers (airlines not individual organic blobs) and their associated assets.
Visit Scotland has a significant funding and global team dedicated to the Sale of Edinburgh Castle, tartan, golf, Nessie, The Highlands, Shortbread and Whisky and also jumping on the Hogwarts bandwagon It’s an enticing offering for a relatively short holiday for many a vacation starved American.
Problem is the target market is fickle and recidivist visits are not at all guaranteed. Another shiny thing will be round the corner soon enough.
As for Visit England well we all know they only care about London and day trips to Shakespeare land via a marketing opportunity at Bicester !
Going to point out there is evidently some softening in the underlining Edinburgh market . Delta and Air Canada both reducing or canning the shoulder season and frequencies.
No disrespect to Edinburgh however I would not expect much further growth beyond 2024 here.
Now as for Manchester the days of Thomas Cook sure there isn’t a replacement for them anytime soon in the UK marketplace it’s similar in Dusseldorf with the loss of Air Berlin and the shift of much of Condor operations and the Lufthansa JFK to Frankfurt .
Caveat Manchester actually has done rather better than Dusseldorf in retaining core routes namely New York and Atlanta post Covid .Indeed Virgin recommenced New York the very day restrictions were lifted !
Although I expressed concerns about the UK US air transport agreement a little while ago and others satisfied those concerns I do expect 2025 to see at least two new services from Manchester and one on a US carrier to resume.
Disappointments in the immediacy is not securing JetBlue through.
As for Norse not sure I have an opinion on them one way or another to be honest
As for a competition there is certainly some at play both Airport operators are having to pitch to the same customers (airlines not individual organic blobs) and their associated assets.
Visit Scotland has a significant funding and global team dedicated to the Sale of Edinburgh Castle, tartan, golf, Nessie, The Highlands, Shortbread and Whisky and also jumping on the Hogwarts bandwagon It’s an enticing offering for a relatively short holiday for many a vacation starved American.
Problem is the target market is fickle and recidivist visits are not at all guaranteed. Another shiny thing will be round the corner soon enough.
As for Visit England well we all know they only care about London and day trips to Shakespeare land via a marketing opportunity at Bicester !
Going to point out there is evidently some softening in the underlining Edinburgh market . Delta and Air Canada both reducing or canning the shoulder season and frequencies.
No disrespect to Edinburgh however I would not expect much further growth beyond 2024 here.
Now as for Manchester the days of Thomas Cook sure there isn’t a replacement for them anytime soon in the UK marketplace it’s similar in Dusseldorf with the loss of Air Berlin and the shift of much of Condor operations and the Lufthansa JFK to Frankfurt .
Caveat Manchester actually has done rather better than Dusseldorf in retaining core routes namely New York and Atlanta post Covid .Indeed Virgin recommenced New York the very day restrictions were lifted !
Although I expressed concerns about the UK US air transport agreement a little while ago and others satisfied those concerns I do expect 2025 to see at least two new services from Manchester and one on a US carrier to resume.
Disappointments in the immediacy is not securing JetBlue through.
As for Norse not sure I have an opinion on them one way or another to be honest
MAN relies very much on UK originating PAX for T/A services and the USA is no longer to economical destination it once was.
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The alleged “MAN airport PLC” failures are well documented here, nobody is blaming EDI for anything, from what I can see it’s simply an in depth comparison of the two airports
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The only thing I said were that there is an underlying softening of demand right now in forward bookings and that the market “may” be already over supplied in some aspects.
Can I be critical of MAG efforts in the last 18 months , as with Navi, Laviation and others yes there are questions to answer in that respect .
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Not at all did you read what was written Visit Scotland and Edinburgh have done a fantastic job and highly creditable , I have no animosity whatsoever.
The only thing I said were that there is an underlying softening of demand right now in forward bookings and that the market “may” be already over supplied in some aspects.
Can I be critical of MAG efforts in the last 18 months , as with Navi, Laviation and others yes there are questions to answer in that respect .
The only thing I said were that there is an underlying softening of demand right now in forward bookings and that the market “may” be already over supplied in some aspects.
Can I be critical of MAG efforts in the last 18 months , as with Navi, Laviation and others yes there are questions to answer in that respect .
The Air canada shorter season is due to aircraft availability, which is ehy we saw an Omni 767 last year on he Manchester route
Last edited by tictack67; 27th Dec 2023 at 09:36.
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For info, the reference to VisitEngland is well placed.
I referenced VisitBritain and it's polarised view of the UK a few months ago.
If you check LinkedIn so often workshops and external promotions seems to promote Heathrow as the be all and end all (which of course it is).
Nobody can compete with 120 flights a day from the US or 30 flghts a day from China but the galling thing from the Norths point of view is the fact that Manchester is actually the 3rd most popular destination for US visitors. That is from VisitBritains own statistical analysis, sadly the correlation between visitors and flights is now completely out of kilter and will never be rectified. I suspect its unbreakable.
For "International visitors" to England as Rutan says, V.B. look through the prism of London, Shakespeare Country and Bicester Outlet village.
There "virtual" move to Birmingham may enhance that offering. Good luck to Birmingham if it does.
I say virtual as under a FOI request to the cabinet office they confirmed they were judge , jury and executioner in moving there HQ to Birmingham as part of Goves levelling up agenda. Some government depts have moved North but not V. B. who somehow managed to swerve the fate of other departments who ended up in Newport, Manchester, and Darlington.
Incidentally that vacuum in Whitehall has been filled 3x over. Despite the propaganda in moving civil servants "up North", there are now more civil servants in London than there were pre Covid. The void has been well filled.
I digress, the Visit Britain move was performed using Hacker protocols of setting up a committee to then convene an internal committee based on personel from the department that then decided the best place to relocate re levelling up was 'er Birmingham!
Zero input from the regions.
Birmingham was selected based on unknown internal criteria , it also meant that the current London based staff who formed the committee can no doubt enjoy a mix of working from home and of course commuting , they declined to answer if the commute was subsidised by the taxpayer.
I referenced VisitBritain and it's polarised view of the UK a few months ago.
If you check LinkedIn so often workshops and external promotions seems to promote Heathrow as the be all and end all (which of course it is).
Nobody can compete with 120 flights a day from the US or 30 flghts a day from China but the galling thing from the Norths point of view is the fact that Manchester is actually the 3rd most popular destination for US visitors. That is from VisitBritains own statistical analysis, sadly the correlation between visitors and flights is now completely out of kilter and will never be rectified. I suspect its unbreakable.
For "International visitors" to England as Rutan says, V.B. look through the prism of London, Shakespeare Country and Bicester Outlet village.
There "virtual" move to Birmingham may enhance that offering. Good luck to Birmingham if it does.
I say virtual as under a FOI request to the cabinet office they confirmed they were judge , jury and executioner in moving there HQ to Birmingham as part of Goves levelling up agenda. Some government depts have moved North but not V. B. who somehow managed to swerve the fate of other departments who ended up in Newport, Manchester, and Darlington.
Incidentally that vacuum in Whitehall has been filled 3x over. Despite the propaganda in moving civil servants "up North", there are now more civil servants in London than there were pre Covid. The void has been well filled.
I digress, the Visit Britain move was performed using Hacker protocols of setting up a committee to then convene an internal committee based on personel from the department that then decided the best place to relocate re levelling up was 'er Birmingham!
Zero input from the regions.
Birmingham was selected based on unknown internal criteria , it also meant that the current London based staff who formed the committee can no doubt enjoy a mix of working from home and of course commuting , they declined to answer if the commute was subsidised by the taxpayer.
Last edited by Navpi; 27th Dec 2023 at 10:18.
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Now certainly Westjet may have had an impact not denying that .
However the Delta cuts are a much more significant indicator of the underlying trend .
The none appearance of American and United not extending the season on Washington or indeed Chicago anytime soon .
Again I stress the evidence of a softening is right there .
Do I think any routes are under threat right now for 2024 summer no . Do I think there is consolidation down the line yes I do .
Especially Chicago, its no longer a Hub for anyone not United or American today .
The feed gotta be pretty marginal.
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Where HS2 in its new plan will open on 2029 meaning BHX to LON will be 52 mins. (mind you they promised that to Manchester, East Midlands Leeds and Scotland after it was funded)
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except United is starting Washington a month early in April 24, was originally May '24
source https://simpleflying.com/united-airl...in-april-2024/
anyway, Ill leave it there before you have too many sherries and start making unfortunate comments.
Good day
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Do the Brummies think HS2 will be good or bad for BHX?
Surely If you live in Birmingham but can be at Heathrow in not much more than hour with almost hourly frequencies everywhere and no doubt cheaper fares doesnt BHX become well a bit redundant?
Surely If you live in Birmingham but can be at Heathrow in not much more than hour with almost hourly frequencies everywhere and no doubt cheaper fares doesnt BHX become well a bit redundant?
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In terms of air travel yes, however one of the reasons dkr H2 was to provide affordable houses for workers in London, with a 52 min commute
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Air Canada have a history of cutting the shoulder season on seasonally operated services such as those to Manchester and Edinburgh . Believe the aircraft shortages argument if you like , however hard revenue or lower than projected bookings counts every time
Now certainly Westjet may have had an impact not denying that .
However the Delta cuts are a much more significant indicator of the underlying trend .
The none appearance of American and United not extending the season on Washington or indeed Chicago anytime soon .
Again I stress the evidence of a softening is right there .
Do I think any routes are under threat right now for 2024 summer no . Do I think there is consolidation down the line yes I do .
Especially Chicago, its no longer a Hub for anyone not United or American today .
The feed gotta be pretty marginal.
Now certainly Westjet may have had an impact not denying that .
However the Delta cuts are a much more significant indicator of the underlying trend .
The none appearance of American and United not extending the season on Washington or indeed Chicago anytime soon .
Again I stress the evidence of a softening is right there .
Do I think any routes are under threat right now for 2024 summer no . Do I think there is consolidation down the line yes I do .
Especially Chicago, its no longer a Hub for anyone not United or American today .
The feed gotta be pretty marginal.
So based on the above, there's obviously some evidence of softening TATL demand in the January to April period and it's worth recalling these sensible comments from the time the DL cut was announced. But the April to October period looks ok, albeit there's still time for things to change.
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HS2 southern end only benefit the capital right now, and whilst Rishi takes “ credit” for the cancellation of the northern section right now as with everything it’s a half truth. The financial hole is the loss of 35% of the original funding no longer available for the EU development budgets .
BTW some of my colleagues are working today in Birmingham and Ruislip pouring tonnes and tonnes of concrete into ventilation shafts on the HS2 project.
Correct analysis .
HS2 southern end only benefit the capital right now, and whilst Rishi takes “ credit” for the cancellation of the northern section right now as with everything it’s a half truth. The financial hole is the loss of 35% of the original funding no longer available for the EU development budgets .
BTW some of my colleagues are working today in Birmingham and Ruislip pouring tonnes and tonnes of concrete into ventilation shafts on the HS2 project.
HS2 southern end only benefit the capital right now, and whilst Rishi takes “ credit” for the cancellation of the northern section right now as with everything it’s a half truth. The financial hole is the loss of 35% of the original funding no longer available for the EU development budgets .
BTW some of my colleagues are working today in Birmingham and Ruislip pouring tonnes and tonnes of concrete into ventilation shafts on the HS2 project.
But then the whole point of HS2 is now to feed the monster that is London.
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Delta are suspending JFK from early January to late March. Air Canada are suspending Toronto from early January until early May. That restart date is about a month earlier than they restarted it in S23 and they intend using a larger aircraft (787-9 as opposed to the -8 used in S23). United are restarting IAD about a month earlier than in S23 and DL are continuing ATL for about a month longer than in S23.
So based on the above, there's obviously some evidence of softening TATL demand in the January to April period and it's worth recalling these sensible comments from the time the DL cut was announced. But the April to October period looks ok, albeit there's still time for things to change.
So based on the above, there's obviously some evidence of softening TATL demand in the January to April period and it's worth recalling these sensible comments from the time the DL cut was announced. But the April to October period looks ok, albeit there's still time for things to change.
Whilst Manchester maintains year round to New York ( with two differing carriers) Atlanta and indeed Toronto .
Noted United resuming Washington a little earlier .
There is a separate BHX forum some where. All this talk of US flights is confusing us old codgers.
PS. The reason we are not seeing further wide body expansion at MAN is because there's no where to put them until Pier B is finished.
PS. The reason we are not seeing further wide body expansion at MAN is because there's no where to put them until Pier B is finished.