Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

[Playamar2]

A report on the BBC about Ryanair refusing to cancel flights from Cardiff Airport at the request of the Welsh Government, as it breach their lockdown restrictions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-53637418

[racedo]

Govt own airport, won't shut it down because it doesn't suit them but demand everybody follow what they say.

[davidjohnson6]

Number of cases in the last 14 days per 100,000 people in the UK has been rising recently. The numbers are still low compared to Belgium or Spain, but I'm wondering if the three Baltic countries are about to re-impose a requirement that people travelling from the UK go into 14 days of quarantine on arrival... might be announced either this week or next week

I know traffic between the UK and the Baltics is rather less than UK-Spain, but still not great thing to happen

[Playamar2]

A few snippets of quarantine changes from around Europe. (credit schengenvisainfo)
Lithuania - Quarantine for arrivals from France
Norway - Quarantine arrivals from Belgium
Switzerland - Quarantine arrivals from Spain (except Canary & Balearic islands)
Denmark- Portugal now exempt from quarantine.

As mentioned by 2Planks the rate in Portugal is falling a new other countries around Europe have recognised this and have relaxed their quarantine rules.

[AirportPlanner1]

To take the thread back to its core question, Eastern Airways launching a daily route into Heathrow has to be the poster child for impact on air travel. Peak 2020.

[davidjohnson6]

News reports that Belgium is to be added to the 14 day quarantine list for all people entering the UK

[2Planks]

dg6, now formalised by FCO, self isolation now required on returning from Belgium to UK.

[davidjohnson6]

Reported cases per 100,000 over the last 14 days has been creeping up this week.

Greece is being a little more cautious in its welcome to tourists compared to Spain, giving conditional entry to Brits with the right to decide whether Brits need a virus check or other meaaures at the arrival airport

I'm wondering at what point Greece will decide to be a little more active in the default way they handle Brits and other residents of northern Europe on arrival in Greece

[Playamar2]

Looking at the ECDC website the UK Gov't seem to use a factor of about 40 cases per 100k for quarantine to kick-in. Certainly Spain & Belgium fall into that category (there are no figures for Andorra or non-European countries). Spain currently is 89 (Canary Islands 7.3 just to show the injustice of it all) & Belgium 55, Greece has nearly doubled to 10.6 in a week, whereas Italy is fairly stable at 6.9.
Portugal is gradually decreasing and may be a candidate for being put on the exemption list. A bit late for their summer season unfortunately.

[southside bobby]

Tourism named as partly playing a role & a factor in a "2nd wave" in Greece.

More European countries are entering the frame for UK Quarantine measures to be imposed on arriving passengers.

Conversely Cyprus being reinstated by EXS from 17/18th Aug with Larnaca & Paphos.

[Playamar2]

I have to give full marks to Qatar Airways for the way they are trying to stimulate growth by adding extra flights to various destinations around the world almost on a daily basis. It would surprise me if all these new flights are making money initially. They are just about the only full service carrier trying to kick start their network. Others who have gone down this route are mostly LCC like Wizz, Ryanair & EasyJet.

[inOban]

Qatar are certainly listing these flights but how many are actually operating? They've been advertising 3/wk from Edinburgh but only 1/2 have flown each week.

[ATNotts]

And unlike the LCCs that were mentioned, Qatar doesn't have to worry where the next tranche of cash is coming from, being essentially a state vanity project (willy waving if you prefer). The LCCs are operating only where they can turn a profit.

[davidjohnson6]

In deciding whether to book a short haul flight from the UK, two things beyond price/schedule are making me reluctant
1 - number of Covid cases in a region... so Romania and Catalonia are out, but much of Europe seems ok
2 - whether I would be subject to quarantine or other rules either on arrival at the destination or on return to the UK that would make a brief trip very difficult

In particular, if I book a flight for September, i am left thinking I could spend money on tickets, quarantine gets introduced or there is a very high level of Covid cases by departure time, either of which mean I wouldn't want to fly, but the airline still decides to operate the flight and keep my cash. The conclusion is I decide not to buy a ticket at all

I'm wondering if airlines should change the terms to boost confidence in air travel - if quarantine appears then flight gets cancelled and pax gets refund. That way pax would believe that money would buy not only a ticket, but a *usable* ticket. Of course no airline wants to issue refunds if it still has an obligation to operate the flight for a small number of pax

Can this be done and is it compatible with EU261 ?

I know this covers what insurers call 'disinclination to travel' but this is something which is easily observable by a neutral 3rd party. Furthermore, if nobody has confidence that spending money on a ticket is worthwhile - it eventually causes the industry to collapse

[JSCL]

The biggest problem here is that you apply an assumption based on your circumstances. Not everyone will sacrifice their holiday for the sake of the 2 week quarantine when they're already having to work from home.

[davidjohnson6]

So maybe airline has an ancillary product 'pay £x extra and you can get a refund if there is a quarantine requirement'. Presumably some insurer will see a profit in such a product...

[ATNotts]

In the scheme of things, just how important is a holiday? It looks as though 9.6m people have been having a 4 month "holiday" at government expense already. It isn't just working from home, it's returning and not being able to go shopping, not being able to entertain the kids in what is still the school holidays, with trips out, and worse, later this month the kids not being able to return to schools when they open, because they're in quarantine - assuming of course that people are actually bothering to adhere to a quarantine law that the government itself appears unwilling / unable to enforce.

A greater, and much more consequential effect of the quarantine on air travel and the economy is the virtual collapse of business travel - the media however is focused 100% on holidaymakers!

[AirportPlanner1]

ATNotts - Working from home isn’t a “holiday”, and if it is a holiday for anyone sooner or later they’ll find it’s not a sustainable one. If it were a holiday then companies - where roles allow it - would not be promoting it being done permanently.

With regards to furlough perhaps also some sensitivity and empathy wouldn’t go amiss - those I know in that position very much want to be working and have no choice in being furloughed. I’d respectfully suggest that’s also not been a “holiday”, while I’m sure the first two or three weeks were fine perhaps you try going weeks with no real purpose....

[Yeehaw22]

I've been furloughed and would much rather be working in an industry where I would be working full time. Ive never taken a government handout in my life and it doesn't sit easy with me in the slightest even though I've paid hundreds of thousands in taxes over the years.

And I've not once considered it a 'holiday'.

How important is a holiday? Well by the same measure how important is going to the pub? Eating out? Going to sit on Bournemouth beach? Going to the cinema? Where do you stop? Just shut down everything and turn the lights off on your way out......

[ATNotts]

Did I say that working from home is a holiday??? I work from home, have done for 6 years, and work is work, however being furloughed is not "working from home" it is a holiday on 80% pay, albeit a very strange one. I was also furloughed for 5 weeks before returning to full paid employment.

The 5 weeks was a holiday of sorts, though obviously very much restricted as to what I could do, I made the best of it, but was very happy to return to work, it made me realise that despite my years, i'm not ready to give up just yet. There are some people, and I've heard then talking quite openly, who feel that furlough is wonderful and hope it never ends!