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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 27th Sep 2020, 00:01
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Originally Posted by racedo
BS because that would mean thousands would be suffering from it in UK and millions worldwide.
Well thanks for your reasoned comments Racedo.

33 million cases worldwide: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

An estimated 103,600 people (95% credible interval: 85,600 to 123,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 13 to 19 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 500 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 600 to 1 in 400). https://tinyurl.com/y53uxcrr

As I said in the post you responded to, it's important that we are fully aware of the risks. The above statistics are from the UK government and reasonably reliable. The worldometers statistics are more questionable, but the WHO gives 32.4 million cases so that gives an idea of the ball park figure.

Expressflight has stated the impact of a risk averse approach. Air travel will only recover when a reliable vaccine is freely available.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 00:11
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Originally Posted by Barling Magna
Well thanks for your reasoned comments Racedo.

33 million cases worldwide: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

An estimated 103,600 people (95% credible interval: 85,600 to 123,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 13 to 19 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 500 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 600 to 1 in 400). https://tinyurl.com/y53uxcrr

As I said in the post you responded to, it's important that we are fully aware of the risks. The above statistics are from the UK government and reasonably reliable. The worldometers statistics are more questionable, but the WHO gives 32.4 million cases so that gives an idea of the ball park figure.

Expressflight has stated the impact of a risk averse approach. Air travel will only recover when a reliable vaccine is freely available.
UK Govt stats are from whom exactly ?

ONS stats state up to end of July that deaths where Covid was mentioned on death cert were in excess of 50,000 for England and Wales but strangely enough reported deaths including Scotland and NI are 41,970 so assumme by Wednesday its 42,100 so ONS likely stating in excess of 60,000 now. So now we have 2 different branches of Govt with 2 different sets of numbers. So should I believe ONS or PHE ? Just curious.

Aviation in Uk is dead until 2024/25 when it will be back at 2019 levels. As for vaccine well just think this week has seen the death of a Newspaper reporter who chased down Thalidomide company to look after survivors. A vaccine may protect you against Covid-19 V1 but be useless against V6. Personally will avoid the vaccines because I have zero trust in Govt.

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Old 27th Sep 2020, 00:22
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The vaccines aren't being created by governments but by scientists.
You intend to rely on the herd immunity which will be generated by others who do choose to get immunised.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 09:27
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Troubled threads & troubling times...

Increasingly scattergun arguments perhaps though...Harold Evans anybody?

All now thoroughly assured of everybody else`s positions which are completely polarized...oh just like the Country in fact.

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Old 27th Sep 2020, 11:10
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
No, because those who were worried about being infected due to “age, health or genetics” would take responsibility for their health and well-being and would either take themselves out of society or accept the risk based on that knowledge.

If everyone else passes it onto 100 people who have decided not to take themselves out of society, either because of their age, the fact they don’t have an underlying health condition, aren’t fat or have just accepted the risk, we will reach herd immunity far quicker. That’s a positive.
So people like me have to "take themselves out of society" (and perhaps you'd like to define what exactly you mean by that) for an indefinite period all because you (for example) "pass it onto 100 people (in order to) reach herd immunity far quicker". Of those 100 people, and of course you need them to pass it on to another 100 etc., how many will need admission to hospital, need to go on ventilators and some die for you to reach your "herd immunity" targets? I suppose you will say that herd immunity by definition means that many people will die but that is a price worth paying to achieve that end.

I live in a low infection region (at the moment) so I assess, as do most of my friends, that I can currently carry out many 'normal' activities such as shopping, going to restaurants that I trust and spending a night or two at an hotel (50th anniversary coming up). That all helps me to stay sane but if this changes and the disease is rife locally, which would likely be the case under your plan, I would probably assess that such activities are unwise.

It's odd that I cannot find any other major country that is following your plan - I wonder why that is. Sweden tried it to some extent but their weekly infection rate now is still higher than that of Italy, Germany, Norway and Greece so after six months it doesn't seem to have worked yet. How long do you think it would take in the UK?
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 11:45
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
So people like me have to "take themselves out of society" (and perhaps you'd like to define what exactly you mean by that) for an indefinite period all because you (for example) "pass it onto 100 people (in order to) reach herd immunity far quicker". Of those 100 people, and of course you need them to pass it on to another 100 etc., how many will need admission to hospital, need to go on ventilators and some die for you to reach your "herd immunity" targets? I suppose you will say that herd immunity by definition means that many people will die but that is a price worth paying to achieve that end.

I live in a low infection region (at the moment) so I assess, as do most of my friends, that I can currently carry out many 'normal' activities such as shopping, going to restaurants that I trust and spending a night or two at an hotel (50th anniversary coming up). That all helps me to stay sane but if this changes and the disease is rife locally, which would likely be the case under your plan, I would probably assess that such activities are unwise.

It's odd that I cannot find any other major country that is following your plan - I wonder why that is. Sweden tried it to some extent but their weekly infection rate now is still higher than that of Italy, Germany, Norway and Greece so after six months it doesn't seem to have worked yet. How long do you think it would take in the UK?
Yeah, youíre still not getting it are you. Your, and your friendsí assessment is exactly what everybody should be doing. Using your own judgement and doing what you feel safe doing. Now if 60 million people could do the same thing, we wouldnít need government restrictions.

As for your last comment, have a look at the economic impact on Sweden and the U.K. and youíll find an answer.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 11:46
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Originally Posted by southside bobby
All now thoroughly assured of everybody else`s positions which are completely polarized...oh just like the Country in fact.
Precisely why a one size fits all approach wonít work any more.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:05
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Originally Posted by inOban
The vaccines aren't being created by governments but by scientists.
You intend to rely on the herd immunity which will be generated by others who do choose to get immunised.
Which is paid for and funded by Govt whether it is in University labs, direct payment for the research or by what the NHS pays.

I intend to TRY and use my best judgement to avoid catching it, do things like keep weight, health etc under control. So I give myself a fighting chance in the event I catch it and yes I do expect to catch it.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:07
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
Yeah, youíre still not getting it are you. Your, and your friendsí assessment is exactly what everybody should be doing. Using your own judgement and doing what you feel safe doing. Now if 60 million people could do the same thing, we wouldnít need government restrictions.
Sadly many people feel the nanny state must do everything for them and tell them what to do, how to live and what they can do. When this is all over will all of these people stop doing this and return to to open minded willing to make decisions on their own or still reliant on being told what to do.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:13
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
Yeah, you’re still not getting it are you. Your, and your friends’ assessment is exactly what everybody should be doing. Using your own judgement and doing what you feel safe doing. Now if 60 million people could do the same thing, we wouldn’t need government restrictions.
As for your last comment, have a look at the economic impact on Sweden and the U.K. and you’ll find an answer.
Yeah, and I'm obviously not the only one "still not getting it".

You quoted my whole message in your reply but failed to answer the questions so I'll try again.

You want me, and millions like me, to "take themselves out of society". What do you mean by that; is it total isolation at home? Avoiding contact with any other human other than other occupants of the house? Please explain.

Why have other countries not taken up your 'master plan' if it's such a great solution?

How long would you expect it to take to achieve herd immunity and for that matter what proportion of the population would need to have been infected? I'd like to know how long I'm confined to barracks while the rest of you have your fun.

Going way back wasn't there a plan to take millions of citizens 'out of society' for the 'good' of the nation? That didn't work out well.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:25
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
Going way back wasn't there a plan to take millions of citizens 'out of society' for the 'good' of the nation? That didn't work out well.
Six months ago there was a plan to take everyone out of society and that didnít work out well either.

Ive answered your question plenty of times but you just donít understand. (Continue to) do what you feel safe doing. If everyone did that and took responsibility for themselves, herd immunity would be achieved with the least amount of damage.

I donít need to repeat myself every post.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:31
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
Ive answered your question plenty of times but you just don’t understand. (Continue to) do what you feel safe doing. If everyone did that and took responsibility for themselves, herd immunity would be achieved with the least amount of damage.
I think your problem is that you don't even understand the concept of herd immunity. I suggest that you read and learn - try the recent article in The Lancet entitled The History of Herd Immunity. Easy to find on the web and more fruitful for you to understand what you're hoping could be achieved. The answer, according to The Lancet - it won't work anyway but at least you will have overloaded the NHS and caused many thousands more deaths. But hey, ho you will have continued to enjoy your 'normal life' while doing so.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 12:51
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
I think your problem is that you don't even understand the concept of herd immunity. I suggest that you read and learn - try the recent article in The Lancet entitled The History of Herd Immunity. Easy to find on the web and more fruitful for you to understand what you're hoping could be achieved. The answer, according to The Lancet - it won't work anyway but at least you will have overloaded the NHS and caused many thousands more deaths. But hey, ho you will have continued to enjoy your 'normal life' while doing so.
Article published in "The Lancet" doesn't make it right nor make it fact. NHS cost is £200 billion this year, probably more. If current Government actions continue then UK will not be generating enough to pay for the NHS never mind the rest of the public sector.

Impact on aviation / air travel / tourism has been minimum 250,000 job losses, airports, hotels, transportation, retail especially in London with foreign shoppers and loss in billions in VAT / Excise duty / PAYE / CT / Passenger tax.

A point in time gets reached where either the country returns to normality and the economy starts moving again or we spend billions more on the NHS on false assumptions. There is no right or wrong way but more peope will die as a result of cancelled operations / treatments and lockdowns than will ultimnately die of the virus.

People are responsible for their own lives and if you wish to stay at home limiting social contacts to avoid infection that is your choice. But do we destroy everything to keep 70 yr olds alive for 2 years longer if we kill the potential lives / jobs / opportunities for everybody under the age of 25 for the next 50 years ?



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Old 27th Sep 2020, 13:35
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Perhaps the "Pound Shop Tory Ultras" here should cancel their subs to the Daily Mail for a duration & relate with more balanced discursive...
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 14:08
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
Yeah, and I'm obviously not the only one "still not getting it".

You quoted my whole message in your reply but failed to answer the questions so I'll try again.

You want me, and millions like me, to "take themselves out of society". What do you mean by that; is it total isolation at home? Avoiding contact with any other human other than other occupants of the house? Please explain.

Why have other countries not taken up your 'master plan' if it's such a great solution?

How long would you expect it to take to achieve herd immunity and for that matter what proportion of the population would need to have been infected? I'd like to know how long I'm confined to barracks while the rest of you have your fun.

Going way back wasn't there a plan to take millions of citizens 'out of society' for the 'good' of the nation? That didn't work out well.
Hmmm......I do remember one great British leader stating that "there was no such thing as society", so who or what is "society"?
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 15:48
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seeryger...

Almost certainly the poster was referring to events way beyond your ken obviously.

Anyhow just generally...

Would be almost certain you too live in a society so look around & within you & answer the question yourself.

No requirement to resurrect failed political dogma & soundbites from over forty years ago.

.A successful society is marked by how well it looks after the most vulnerable.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 15:55
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It looks like this thread is drifting from talking about the impact of Covid on air travel... towards what Govt should or shouldn't do in general about Covid irrespective of air travel. Perhaps a more general discussion about lockdown measures and how Govt should act could be taken instead to JetBlast ?
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 16:20
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A gentle nudge which is indeed welcome...

"Troubled threads" & the discourse & posts from a couple of posters referencing elements of society they have or would have exception to in these troubled times would cause outrage if written or voiced more generally & is pretty much beyond the pale to be fair.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 23:02
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Originally Posted by racedo
Aviation in Uk is dead until 2024/25 when it will be back at 2019 levels.
2019 might have been a good year for aviation with very high passenger numbers but that it is some kind of normal is far fetched and that we will ever get back to those levels is possibly just a pipe dream from airlines that have invested to much in a capacity level that might never again be needed. Or rather many of those specific airplanes might not be needed before development have surpassed them due to constantly stricter environmental regulations. Some airlines might need to replace some of their chiefs that keep tooting about when we will get back to 2019 instead of looking forward with a bit more cynicism. BA have already done that. The year of 2019 have come and gone and will never come back.
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Old 27th Sep 2020, 23:19
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Originally Posted by vikingivesterled
2019 might have been a good year for aviation with very high passenger numbers but that it is some kind of normal is far fetched and that we will ever get back to those levels is possibly just a pipe dream from airlines that have invested to much in a capacity level that might never again be needed. Or rather many of those specific airplanes might not be needed before development have surpassed them due to constantly stricter environmental regulations. Some airlines might need to replace some of their chiefs that keep tooting about when we will get back to 2019 instead of looking forward with a bit more cynicism. BA have already done that. The year of 2019 have come and gone and will never come back.
Wonderful positive spirit there. Let's tear up the Runways and return to sail boats.
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