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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 24th Feb 2020, 21:25
  #21 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 View Post
This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!
In truth people will happily lose their jobs if it came to it V their lives. Hopefully it never becomes a choice we need to consider.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 04:53
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by alm1 View Post
Reportedly Israel banned all tourists from Italy from entry. This should start affecting European airlines now in a major way.
I am sorry but apparently my source was wrong. I see planes still going from Bergamo to Tel Aviv.

Still in my country there are plenty of populist calls to ban air travel from Italy. We also have a basketball match here in my city on Friday with Milan team with usual attendance of 15000. This is still not canceled but there are plenty of calls to not allow any fans from Italy.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 07:18
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Btw. My son happens to be in Italy right now and he sent me a photo
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What if you checked the inventory at your nearest store?
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 10:57
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Originally Posted by eu01 View Post
Btw. My son happens to be in Italy right now and he sent me a photo
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What if you checked the inventory at your nearest store?
5 million people caught the regular flu this winter in Italy and 400 died. Long before we had heard of CV. If paranoia or overreacting make people apply better hygiene habits it can't be a bad thing.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 14:39
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Originally Posted by mike current View Post
5 million people caught the regular flu this winter in Italy and 400 died. Long before we had heard of CV. If paranoia or overreacting make people apply better hygiene habits it can't be a bad thing.
European heat wave of 2003, record high temperatures across Europe in 2003 that resulted in at least 30,000 deaths (more than 14,000 in France alone).
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 15:25
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So the world is over reacting which is what the deputy health minister of Iran was saying until he caught it as he didn’t believe in quarantine.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 16:00
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Originally Posted by Sober Lark View Post
European heat wave of 2003, record high temperatures across Europe in 2003 that resulted in at least 30,000 deaths (more than 14,000 in France alone).
NHS indicated that 30,000 people died in UK in 2014/15 winter because of Flu.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 16:04
  #28 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
So the world is over reacting which is what the deputy health minister of Iran was saying until he caught it as he didnít believe in quarantine.
I think the world is attempting to take reasonable precautions over what could be something small / medium or large.

Best case is nobody dies in uk, medium case is 15,000 infected and 300 deaths, worst case is 15 million infected and 1 million die. Faced with this Governments are trying to manage a line between everything is ok and let's all panic.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 16:26
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And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly? Already hotels are being quarantined in Tenerife and Austria. If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism? No wonder airline stocks are plummeting. Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 17:43
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I have to say I wouldn't book a holiday in a few months at the moment - not so much because of the disease but because of the potential my holiday won't go as planned due to restrictions etc. Wait and see. Not for 10 years though - six months to a year maybe
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 20:08
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Originally Posted by 22/04 View Post
I have to say I wouldn't book a holiday in a few months at the moment - not so much because of the disease but because of the potential my holiday won't go as planned due to restrictions etc. Wait and see. Not for 10 years though - six months to a year maybe
I think your view will be the one picked by many people, lets wait and see, hold back, then stay at home on the basis of better safe than sorry. This will be disastrous for travel industry who will have to lay off thousands and economically will impact quite a lot of countries.

Ultimately it is about confidence, when people start to worry then they alter behaviour, like in a recession when even though job safe, not in financial difficulty people decide not to renew the 2 cars and wait another year or two, hold back on consumer spending.

Potentially a real negative could be xenophobia where immediately anybody foreign looking is suspected of being a carrier, this is irrational but people act irrationally when afraid of the inknown.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 20:23
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There is one more problem. I have checked my travel insurance - epidemics and pandemics are specifically not covered. Getting stuck somewhere could very soon end up very expensive.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 20:24
  #33 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
And then if the population panics how many people will want to fly?
Zero pretty much and industry will collapse.

If there was a major outbreak in say London what would happen to UK bound tourism?
It virtually ceases to exist.

Let’s hope this drops off when the weather warms.
Me too

BUT if doesn't and Govt have to go for a shut down, what happens ?
People won't be working so mortgages get unpaid, banks will demand payment, well in reality nobody working in banks so nothing will be happening, what happens to cash / food etc.
Almost like the 1930 great depresssion again. Fingers crossed weather kills virus and no other Black Swan event occurs but Locusts in Africa / Asia could be interesting.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 20:44
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Originally Posted by alm1 View Post
There is one more problem. I have checked my travel insurance - epidemics and pandemics are specifically not covered. Getting stuck somewhere could very soon end up very expensive.
True BUT getting stuck somewhere may not be the worst thing to happen. Imagine you stuck in a place, flying in and out banned, home place becomes a hot zone and you in a place which is infection free.

The how they hell am I going to pay for it becomes less of a worry and you just hope on the kindness of the people where you are. If you have a skill which helps the then even better but even if not the people there have 2 options. One is kick all the non natives out, two include them as all in the same boat. Humanity has dealt with this before in times of war or pandemic.

Those who kick everybody out will find history judging them very harshly but I have a belief in people, look at the thousands who shielded people in WW2 and other events.
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Old 25th Feb 2020, 23:23
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My daughter has booked a holiday to Minorca a few days ago. This health event is moving so fast I would suggested now that she deferred any plans for travel outside the U.K. Not so much about the fear of catching the virus but getting caught up in a lock down. So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 01:15
  #36 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
My daughter has booked a holiday to Minorca a few days ago. This health event is moving so fast I would suggested now that she deferred any plans for travel outside the U.K. Not so much about the fear of catching the virus but getting caught up in a lock down.
Reasonable because always can take another holiday and at the moment it is reaction to events.

So who is funding the people trapped in their hotel complex in Tenerife?
Ultimately Spanish Govt as they are preventing you from leaving hotel for Public Health reasons. Same way as people shut off in Liverpool / Milton Keynes after flying in from China.

The nightmare scenario is people flying in via 3rd and 4th countries / cities. Keep quiet about any illness, not disclosing how they came to a country and leaving a trail that cannot be quickly followed.

I can't remember the book but was mass infection in the US, person visiting LA but disease spread from Las Vegas, person had joined someone else for a weekend in Vegas, never used any cards to spend money / registered at a hotel. After weekend back to LA and they died there but gap was why not disease in LA but in Vegas.
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 09:40
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I've just become aware of a large multi-national company, with employee numbers that run well into 6 figures that has instituted an immediate work travel ban (with the exception of getting people already traveling home). This is when the financial consequences for aviation really kick in.
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 09:58
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Originally Posted by 840 View Post
I've just become aware of a large multi-national company, with employee numbers that run well into 6 figures that has instituted an immediate work travel ban (with the exception of getting people already traveling home). This is when the financial consequences for aviation really kick in.
If it is a one off and nobody follows then maybe, however likely the message will permeate quickly and others will do similar.

HR friend did a risk analysis of 3 people travelling to Taiwan last week. Risk was acceptable and they travelled. She has been in Northern Italy twice in last 2 weeks so it was an Oh SH*T.
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 10:02
  #39 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Jetscream 32 View Post
Black Swan:

Pandoras box is fully open and this will probably tip the worlds greatest economies into recession or something close to it, corporates will almost immediately start cancelling flights for employees and if they are all booked on full flex refundable tickets, the airlines that use that money for cash flow and fixed costs in advance on release from BSP or card merchants will quickly start calling in for more investor money or start going bust.

Europe will see a major swing in the profitability of even the richest LCC's and it will happen with such speed that nobody will be able to mitigate against it. Fixed costs of airlines are the killer - banks and lessors are going to be in fear of default and it will change the landscape of airline travel forever I think.

In the days of the Black Death virus, we didn't have Twitter, Facebook and instant media attention that is stoking the fear, the narrative versus flu (which is still the biggest killer) is strong enough as we don't have a vaccine or anything for Covid-19 yet....

As an airline exec, I'd be super focused right now on damage limitation, having the very best lawyers speaking with lessors and pre-briefing all of our staff that we may be forced to suspend operations and what the outcomes of that will mean for shareholders and staff.

This is not going to be a pleasant journey for anyone in aviation in 2020 - hold tight and I pray you all to keep your jobs! Roll the dice!
I think the ecnomic impact could be considerable BUT Govt and Central Banks may take a freeze on loan repayments etc to prevent lots of places folding. Banks foreclosing on lots of businesses like 10 years ago happened because there were others who could buy or pick up the slack. When the whole economy is like that it is a different position.
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Old 26th Feb 2020, 10:32
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Does anyone have knowledge concerning no shows on flights to Italy? How much does it differ from usual numbers?
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