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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 11th Mar 2020, 22:43
  #261 (permalink)  
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El AL has put 80 % of staff on unpaid leave. This will include 600 out of 650 pilots.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 00:18
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Looks like things are going to get more serious here in the UK. The PM has called for a COBRA meeting tomorrow which may see the Government escalate the UK's move into the 2nd phase (Delay).

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...elled-11955695
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 02:24
  #263 (permalink)  
 
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Trump has suspended all travel from mainland Europe to the US...
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 06:16
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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China has put in restriction to stop the country being reinfected while in February they were protesting about other countries putting restrictions in place on visitors from China. How the world has changed.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 06:50
  #265 (permalink)  
 
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We all have something to learn from each other. The communists have shown their crazy, ugly, daft and also clever side. This is a world redefining moment.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 07:58
  #266 (permalink)  
 
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I think what will come out of all this was the worlds reluctance to impose travel bans right at the start from China and later Italy. Putting bans in place when the genie is out of the bottle is now too late.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 10:16
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The US majors must be feeling a little better this morning after Trump’s ban. They after all have Chapter 11 to fall back on if the hit from vastly reduced EU-US travel is sufficiently big. Many of their European rivals don’t have that luxury. If Trump was serious about reducing the risk, and not just playing political games he wouldn’t be limiting the ban to non-US citizens (who are more likely to have been in crowded areas in Europe such as tourist spots and large hotels).
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 10:19
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The genie was always getting out of the bottle . The plan is to spread the infections out into the summer. Shutting down the country means we could have a spike next winter. In a country that is economically farked.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 12:37
  #269 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Superpilot View Post
We all have something to learn from each other. The communists have shown their crazy, ugly, daft and also clever side. This is a world redefining moment.
China is not communist in any way shape or form. That idea went out years ago. It is capitalist just not the same capitalism that the US has but it is capitalist.

There is more state control but every state operates state control just often at different levels. In 1980's miners strike UK police were forcibly stopping cars and people and refusing them acces to an area because a strike was involved. When push comes to shove they all have their own way of doing things and will always find pliable judges willing to ok it.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 12:44
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Originally Posted by SARF View Post
The genie was always getting out of the bottle . The plan is to spread the infections out into the summer. Shutting down the country means we could have a spike next winter. In a country that is economically farked.
Everything is farked just now questions of degrees.

Key thing now is can your country produce enough food to be self sufficient or work with its neighbours to ensure both are. We may be glad that the Russians grow wheat like there is no tomorrow because many places could be cut off.

Assumming senior leaders catch it just like rest of population then you are looking at new leaders emerging potentially in many countrys with a very different viewpoint. Additionally IF a country ends up really weakened and its neighbours decide they want it then could have some regional impacts.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 14:46
  #271 (permalink)  
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Friend texted me to say Bratislava airport will be shut down so no flights entering or leaving country, not sure how accurate it is but things are noving quite quickly everywhere.

The wait and see which was not unreasonable for a few weeks has moved to a lets action, the actions of President Trump has opened the doors for many to up their actions without free of starting a stampede.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 14:47
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racedo, you're just a scaremonger and poor at spelling to boot!
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 15:12
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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Racedo is correct. Complete shutdown of airports, land border (except for entry by Slovak nationals) and rail.

In the last few minutes my own booking with BA has been cancelled. This was a replacement booking due to Flybe
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 15:31
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
I think what will come out of all this was the worlds reluctance to impose travel bans right at the start from China and later Italy. Putting bans in place when the genie is out of the bottle is now too late.
You keep peddling this line, but who was the only Western European country to ban Chinese flights?
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 15:38
  #275 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
The US majors must be feeling a little better this morning after Trumpís ban. They after all have Chapter 11 to fall back on if the hit from vastly reduced EU-US travel is sufficiently big. Many of their European rivals donít have that luxury. If Trump was serious about reducing the risk, and not just playing political games he wouldnít be limiting the ban to non-US citizens (who are more likely to have been in crowded areas in Europe such as tourist spots and large hotels).
The issue is he can't stop US persons from returning in the general sense. They have an automatic right to entry. He could impose an involuntary quarantine on return, but that would not fit his other MOs. However, the near total ban on non-US persons who have been in the Schengen area in the last 14 days will probably keep many US citizens from returning as the flights will dry up quickly.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 15:56
  #276 (permalink)  
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He is trying to keep within the law to prevent someone seeking to clog up the courts system with a challenge for the sake of a challenge.

The flights will dry up quickly as you state PLUS countrys they leaving from may impose quarantine on US citizens leaving or airlines demand results of tests. No doubt some would be on to Embassy / Congress etc demanding release and a "formal" protest made while behind the scenes an informal if infected then we have no objections will apply.

There are other ways to quarantine people returning from abroad into the US with resorting to Presidential dictat.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 16:13
  #277 (permalink)  
 
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Assumming senior leaders catch it just like rest of population then you are looking at new leaders emerging potentially in many countrys with a very different viewpoint.
This sort of stuff should really be in JB, strayed well off the aviation impact now but I'll rise to the bait - just curious as to what you've based this impact on, do you know something about the expected mortality rate that the rest of us don't?
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 17:10
  #278 (permalink)  
 
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Trump has had contact and may (allegedly) have underlying conditions....just saying
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 20:00
  #279 (permalink)  
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https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...yees-1.4201318

Norwegian cancels 4000 flights and lays off 50% of staff.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 00:31
  #280 (permalink)  
 
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So based on PM BJ and his two experts live briefing at 5pm in UK - they were definitely indicating the daily trend getting worse at least till May and possibly June

Am I the only to have picked up on that?

Based on a 10x multiple of virus every 16 days till May before a decline in the virus just for the UK means that the regional airlines that have rushed to backfill Flybe will be going the same way?

If the time to infliction point is 90/100 days that is 2020 written off. Add another 12/24 months to gain confidence back at discounted rates and that is massive debt for the worlds airlines when we will already be in the worst recession known to mankind

Whoa donít I sound cheery! 😎

Time to start an airline!
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