Blue Islands
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With no codeshares, how will they sustain the Exeter-Manchester service?
Join Date: Nov 2007
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The bigger picture
It’s easy to be distracted by the fall out from the unfortunate demise of Flybe and the subsequent scramble to back fill routes. But the reality of the present crisis is much more profound for aviation and - in context of the Southampton area - for the Cruise Industry too.
Among the many announcements over the past ten days was the statement by the Delta Airlines CEO in which he said that demand is not expected to return for 18 months. Of course, none of us know, but we do have some precedent with both the global financial crisis of 2008/9 and 9/11. 18 months from now is the beginning to the winter schedule 21/22, so the reality is more likely to be a return to normality for the summer 2022 season. In the meantime, buckle up.
For the south coast, BOH in 2019 had recovered only about 80% of its previous peak passenger throughput which was in 2007! Meanwhile SOU, until fairly recently, doing better, had peaked a year or two prior to 2019. So what is a likely outcome?
For the UK as a whole, a reasonable estimate of the impact in 2020, is a 25% annual fall in passenger numbers for 2020, 20m wiped from LHR, 11m from Gatwick and so on. On current indications, it is also likely that more airlines will go under. In simple terms, those with cash in the bank and relatively manageable debt will probably come out of this stronger. That means IAG and Ryanair, perhaps even easyJet, but the latter has picked a very bad year to launch its inclusive holiday business.
In the meantime, all airlines (and airports) are in a cash preserving mode, cutting costs wherever they can. Staff will go, projects will be deferred or cancelled, at least until there is more clarity about revenue normalising again. The airport owners - usually Pension Funds and Infrastructure investors - look for consistent returns, when revenue falls, that means cost cutting.
Pressure on London runway slots and airspace will ease, the need for airlines to move into the UK regions to deliver growth has probably moved right by 3 years, and for easyjet the recently acquired Thomas Cook slots at LGW and BRS are in its back pocket for growth when it does return.
So where does that leave SOU expansion plans?
In my view there is no doubt that planning permission for the runway extension is much more likely to get the green light now, planners will need to be seen to support economic growth, there will be environmental requirements, but it will be approved. But, the airport owners are much less likely to be ready to spend the money on development. Why? Because the value of the (all) airports, has just taken a big hit, money will be spent only when there is a reasonable basis that it will deliver a return through increased traffic, or the value of the airport.
So, for the next 2-3 years staying in business will be the key objective for all airports, especially the regions.
FF
Among the many announcements over the past ten days was the statement by the Delta Airlines CEO in which he said that demand is not expected to return for 18 months. Of course, none of us know, but we do have some precedent with both the global financial crisis of 2008/9 and 9/11. 18 months from now is the beginning to the winter schedule 21/22, so the reality is more likely to be a return to normality for the summer 2022 season. In the meantime, buckle up.
For the south coast, BOH in 2019 had recovered only about 80% of its previous peak passenger throughput which was in 2007! Meanwhile SOU, until fairly recently, doing better, had peaked a year or two prior to 2019. So what is a likely outcome?
For the UK as a whole, a reasonable estimate of the impact in 2020, is a 25% annual fall in passenger numbers for 2020, 20m wiped from LHR, 11m from Gatwick and so on. On current indications, it is also likely that more airlines will go under. In simple terms, those with cash in the bank and relatively manageable debt will probably come out of this stronger. That means IAG and Ryanair, perhaps even easyJet, but the latter has picked a very bad year to launch its inclusive holiday business.
In the meantime, all airlines (and airports) are in a cash preserving mode, cutting costs wherever they can. Staff will go, projects will be deferred or cancelled, at least until there is more clarity about revenue normalising again. The airport owners - usually Pension Funds and Infrastructure investors - look for consistent returns, when revenue falls, that means cost cutting.
Pressure on London runway slots and airspace will ease, the need for airlines to move into the UK regions to deliver growth has probably moved right by 3 years, and for easyjet the recently acquired Thomas Cook slots at LGW and BRS are in its back pocket for growth when it does return.
So where does that leave SOU expansion plans?
In my view there is no doubt that planning permission for the runway extension is much more likely to get the green light now, planners will need to be seen to support economic growth, there will be environmental requirements, but it will be approved. But, the airport owners are much less likely to be ready to spend the money on development. Why? Because the value of the (all) airports, has just taken a big hit, money will be spent only when there is a reasonable basis that it will deliver a return through increased traffic, or the value of the airport.
So, for the next 2-3 years staying in business will be the key objective for all airports, especially the regions.
FF
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A balanced post.
Although some of the lost demand will most likely bounce back after this crisis is over - some of that 'demand' may never return. The demand that may never recover is domestic UK or air travel which has an environmental impact far outweighing the economic benefit. UK domestic is not an area that anyone should be investing in, certainly not on a big scale.
The evolution of UK aviation to date clearly shows a move away from it, corona is simlpy speeding this up.
Although some of the lost demand will most likely bounce back after this crisis is over - some of that 'demand' may never return. The demand that may never recover is domestic UK or air travel which has an environmental impact far outweighing the economic benefit. UK domestic is not an area that anyone should be investing in, certainly not on a big scale.
The evolution of UK aviation to date clearly shows a move away from it, corona is simlpy speeding this up.
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Due to the Covid crisis Blue have grounded all GCI flights until further notice
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/...t-of-guernsey/
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/...t-of-guernsey/
Last edited by Jerbourg; 20th Mar 2020 at 20:11.
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Due to the Covid crisis Blue have grounded all GCI flights until further notice
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/...t-of-guernsey/
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/...t-of-guernsey/
FF
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The Blue Islands Monday / Wednesday / Friday Jersey to Southampton service seems to be fairly busy. Designated by GOJ as essential workers and medical travel only, the route is also reportedly subsidised by GOJ.
Reported on the LGW thread BI are also starting to operate a once weekly flight Jersey - Gatwick on a Tuesday again for essential travel only, assume this is also subsidised by GOJ.
The Southampton thread has also mentioned BI's planned expansion (no doubt post crisis) into the U.K market with 3x SOU - MAN daily and a 2x EXT - MAN daily. The little airline from the rock certainly seems to be trying its best to adapt and overcome this current crisis! Unfortunately for both BI and AUR the SOG seem to have a restriction in place until the end of August for travel off island, this will no doubt hamper BI planned return and normal ops for a little while.
Reported on the LGW thread BI are also starting to operate a once weekly flight Jersey - Gatwick on a Tuesday again for essential travel only, assume this is also subsidised by GOJ.
The Southampton thread has also mentioned BI's planned expansion (no doubt post crisis) into the U.K market with 3x SOU - MAN daily and a 2x EXT - MAN daily. The little airline from the rock certainly seems to be trying its best to adapt and overcome this current crisis! Unfortunately for both BI and AUR the SOG seem to have a restriction in place until the end of August for travel off island, this will no doubt hamper BI planned return and normal ops for a little while.
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In the ACL report for Dublin for the upcoming winter season Blue Islands have been awarded 28 slots, presume this application is with Exeter (or maybe Southampton) in mind rather than the Channel Islands
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https://www.itv.com/news/channel/202...eys-government
Blue Islands gets a £10m loan from the Jersey Government and will become the main carrier for Jersey.
Blue Islands gets a £10m loan from the Jersey Government and will become the main carrier for Jersey.
Last edited by BA318; 6th Jul 2020 at 08:01.
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Blue Islands gets a £10m loan from the Jersey Government and will become the main carrier for Jersey.
The airline will become the 'base carrier' for Jersey Airport and say it will focus its operations in Jersey, taking on many of the former Flybe routes, 'safeguarding vital regional connectivity into the UK'.
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The ITV Channel Island news piece about it was very vague - mentioned keeping the Guernsey routes, no mention of the new UK routes from Southampton and Exeter and also the only "new routes" mentioned were from Jersey to Birmingham and Exeter - which is hardly taking over "most of the former Flybe routes"
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Blue islands flew the BRS route in their own right for many years. They then went into a franchise agreement with Flybe till Flybe ceased. The BRS route flight numbers went back to Blue islands flying the route till this covid 19 kicked in in a big way. Blue Islands are due to start the BRS route i think in august but not sure on that one.The BRS route has been flown all year round so i would imagine that will happen again when they restart.
