Blue Islands
Join Date: May 2007
Location: davenport IA
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Blue islands did a daily rotation into CWL under the Flybe franchise but not under Blue islands. Some CWL followers are saying blue islands will operate into CWL under their own right. I have seen nothing to confirm this, i can only think the spotters are being wishfull yhinking with this as it being run ubder Flybe franchise and think it will continue under Blue islands flight numbers.Time will tell if it will run or some body has seen it some where to say it will run.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Waters edge
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4 months on It seems I was rather too optimistIc
It’s easy to be distracted by the fall out from the unfortunate demise of Flybe and the subsequent scramble to back fill routes. But the reality of the present crisis is much more profound for aviation and - in context of the Southampton area - for the Cruise Industry too.
Among the many announcements over the past ten days was the statement by the Delta Airlines CEO in which he said that demand is not expected to return for 18 months. Of course, none of us know, but we do have some precedent with both the global financial crisis of 2008/9 and 9/11. 18 months from now is the beginning to the winter schedule 21/22, so the reality is more likely to be a return to normality for the summer 2022 season. In the meantime, buckle up.
For the south coast, BOH in 2019 had recovered only about 80% of its previous peak passenger throughput which was in 2007! Meanwhile SOU, until fairly recently, doing better, had peaked a year or two prior to 2019. So what is a likely outcome?
For the UK as a whole, a reasonable estimate of the impact in 2020, is a 25% annual fall in passenger numbers for 2020, 20m wiped from LHR, 11m from Gatwick and so on. On current indications, it is also likely that more airlines will go under. In simple terms, those with cash in the bank and relatively manageable debt will probably come out of this stronger. That means IAG and Ryanair, perhaps even easyJet, but the latter has picked a very bad year to launch its inclusive holiday business.
In the meantime, all airlines (and airports) are in a cash preserving mode, cutting costs wherever they can. Staff will go, projects will be deferred or cancelled, at least until there is more clarity about revenue normalising again. The airport owners - usually Pension Funds and Infrastructure investors - look for consistent returns, when revenue falls, that means cost cutting.
Pressure on London runway slots and airspace will ease, the need for airlines to move into the UK regions to deliver growth has probably moved right by 3 years, and for easyjet the recently acquired Thomas Cook slots at LGW and BRS are in its back pocket for growth when it does return.
So where does that leave SOU expansion plans?
In my view there is no doubt that planning permission for the runway extension is much more likely to get the green light now, planners will need to be seen to support economic growth, there will be environmental requirements, but it will be approved. But, the airport owners are much less likely to be ready to spend the money on development. Why? Because the value of the (all) airports, has just taken a big hit, money will be spent only when there is a reasonable basis that it will deliver a return through increased traffic, or the value of the airport.
So, for the next 2-3 years staying in business will be the key objective for all airports, especially the regions.
FF
Among the many announcements over the past ten days was the statement by the Delta Airlines CEO in which he said that demand is not expected to return for 18 months. Of course, none of us know, but we do have some precedent with both the global financial crisis of 2008/9 and 9/11. 18 months from now is the beginning to the winter schedule 21/22, so the reality is more likely to be a return to normality for the summer 2022 season. In the meantime, buckle up.
For the south coast, BOH in 2019 had recovered only about 80% of its previous peak passenger throughput which was in 2007! Meanwhile SOU, until fairly recently, doing better, had peaked a year or two prior to 2019. So what is a likely outcome?
For the UK as a whole, a reasonable estimate of the impact in 2020, is a 25% annual fall in passenger numbers for 2020, 20m wiped from LHR, 11m from Gatwick and so on. On current indications, it is also likely that more airlines will go under. In simple terms, those with cash in the bank and relatively manageable debt will probably come out of this stronger. That means IAG and Ryanair, perhaps even easyJet, but the latter has picked a very bad year to launch its inclusive holiday business.
In the meantime, all airlines (and airports) are in a cash preserving mode, cutting costs wherever they can. Staff will go, projects will be deferred or cancelled, at least until there is more clarity about revenue normalising again. The airport owners - usually Pension Funds and Infrastructure investors - look for consistent returns, when revenue falls, that means cost cutting.
Pressure on London runway slots and airspace will ease, the need for airlines to move into the UK regions to deliver growth has probably moved right by 3 years, and for easyjet the recently acquired Thomas Cook slots at LGW and BRS are in its back pocket for growth when it does return.
So where does that leave SOU expansion plans?
In my view there is no doubt that planning permission for the runway extension is much more likely to get the green light now, planners will need to be seen to support economic growth, there will be environmental requirements, but it will be approved. But, the airport owners are much less likely to be ready to spend the money on development. Why? Because the value of the (all) airports, has just taken a big hit, money will be spent only when there is a reasonable basis that it will deliver a return through increased traffic, or the value of the airport.
So, for the next 2-3 years staying in business will be the key objective for all airports, especially the regions.
FF
Q4 this year is likely to be ugly.
FF
Join Date: Mar 2003
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Are they allowed to fly around with a franchised branding if the franchisor is insolvent? I assume they will have to pay the administrators to some extent? I remember that elsewhere airlines using a franchised brand hastily removed as much as possible of the livery .
Join Date: Jan 2008
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The colours in the Blue Islands logo changed fairly recently, suspect it will be navy blue and white, along the lines of Lufthansa with mainly white fuselage - can't see it being that revolutionary, especially if the branding has been done by someone in the Healthspan Marketing Team, like the last one supposedly was.
Join Date: Oct 2006
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The website is currently showing a new Blue Islands 'logo'.
The Welcome Difference tagline has been rolled out again - I wonder what difference they plan to introduce this time around?
The Welcome Difference tagline has been rolled out again - I wonder what difference they plan to introduce this time around?
Last edited by Jerbourg; 7th Jul 2020 at 19:44.
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As an aside, any business which shuts its' website to launch a revamp during the day is idiotic. Have to wonder about their commercial acumen. They either launch it in parallel or flip it in the unearthly hours. Not during the soaps when Joan wants to book some flights on Jeff's credit card.
This is a small airline with 5 puddle jumpers, not Easyjet or BA. Resources are likely to be very limited.
The person(s) doing the switchover likely works on a UK bodyclock. If the changeover takes maybe an hour or two, then best to let them do it when everyone is reasonably alert, instead of at 3 am, and other people are available to confirm all is ok or make a decision to roll back the changes
That said, 8 am on Sunday morning is maybe a better idea...
The person(s) doing the switchover likely works on a UK bodyclock. If the changeover takes maybe an hour or two, then best to let them do it when everyone is reasonably alert, instead of at 3 am, and other people are available to confirm all is ok or make a decision to roll back the changes
That said, 8 am on Sunday morning is maybe a better idea...
Join Date: Jan 2000
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As an aside, any business which shuts its' website to launch a revamp during the day is idiotic. Have to wonder about their commercial acumen. They either launch it in parallel or flip it in the unearthly hours. Not during the soaps when Joan wants to book some flights on Jeff's credit card.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Guernsey
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I understand from someone who works at the airport that they haven't seen any sign of the Blue Islands handling equipment recently
Last edited by KindaUnstuck; 7th Jul 2020 at 20:34.
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Clearly the words of someone who has never been involved in a res system migration from one platform to another. It's a process which many airlines have had years to plan and implement (and some have still messed it up royally) and so to be at this point just four months after Flybe collapsed having had an interim system running in the meantime is good going. Even when planned, this process can take 12 to 14 hours to migrate bookings then test and conduct the integrity checks of migrated bookings before going live.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I wonder how prepared they were for the border release
Will LCY return this summer?
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: jersey
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As prepared as anyone, I think. They have been in discussion with the States of Jersey for a while over the loan etc., so I would expect that they were made aware of what was being planned re. the re-opening. However, will it last now that a Covid case has materialized among the first arrivals ?
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Join Date: Nov 2016
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G-ISLK has already been resprayed at NWI and is returning to JER today.
Lets hope the new colours are a bit more interesting than those on 'LM and 'LN!
