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Gatwick-2

Old 5th May 2020, 18:32
  #821 (permalink)  
 
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Vistara LGW

Back at the start of March my management at MZA confirmed that we would be handling the Vistara contract. When this appears on Gatwick flight info and the community app does that mean these were the slots applied for and would have been the departure times if the operations were to have started?
It shows 06:55 arrival UK015 and 10:25 departure UK016.


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Old 5th May 2020, 18:43
  #822 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot View Post
I bet Jet2 would drop STN tomorrow if LGW offered a deal. Their business model is classic Gatwick Airport and would be a good fit.
‘Classic Gatwick airport’ is officially dead I’m afraid. Those days are long gone by the looks of it.
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Old 5th May 2020, 18:51
  #823 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FRatSTN View Post
On the contrary, Ryanair would probably only take a keen interest if Wizz went for it, for simply a matter of cost. Perhaps a bit like they did with Bucharest and Vilnius at SEN on a potentially much bigger scale. Otherwise, it's all about STN for Ryanair.
I’m not talking a shift of operations by Ryanair from Stansted. I can definitely see FR having a much bigger presence at Gatwick with the availability of slots because A. They already serve LGW. And B. They are one of a few airlines with money deep pockets to do so.

This could however be to the detriment of LTN/SEN however.

Only time will tell.
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Old 5th May 2020, 19:01
  #824 (permalink)  
 
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Gatwick’s best hope in my opinion for the longer term, if the economy is strong enough and people can travel, is for Jet2 to open a parallel base to STN. The problem with Ryanair showing up on any scale is they would take the fight to EZY so that operation would be undermined. I can see Wizz doing more but for most of their routes LTN is better because it has wider reach.

This is could be a turning point in the balance between LGW and STN, the latter massively benefiting from MAG ownership and the access and joint deals that can bring. Don’t forget STN has already scored victories with LGW-type routes and airlines recently, such as Air India and Air Senegal and even perhaps Air Corsica. Greek islands that used to be a LGW speciality have shifted north with Jet2 after TCX collapse. LGW and SEN will be the big losers in my opinion.
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:14
  #825 (permalink)  
 
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In the same way as it is assumed Ryanair might not wish to enter LGW in a large way due to the size of EasyJet's operation, I wonder if Jet2 would really opt to move on LGW where they would compete head on with Tui.
They had the opportunity to do so when TCX collapsed and didn't do so, instead choosing to offer some of those routes at STN.
Whilst there may be more free slots when this resolves itself and I am sure there could be some deals to be done, I would suspect they are likely to see better results growing their existing market rather than taking on an already successful incumbent in what could be a very different market,
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:29
  #826 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by True Blue View Post
Slots for Wizzair!
Not wholly convinced on growth to CEE going forward. Know of quite a few Poles / Romanians / Bulgarians who headed home on lockdown. They are not entirely convinced they will ever be returning to live because they look at how their countrys handled in and UK. They have saved their money and family pressure is to be at home rather than UK.

It has been evident for some time that Wizzair flights to Poland other than at weekend have not had great loads at Ltn. I don't see it improving post Brexit.
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:39
  #827 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pamann View Post
‘Classic Gatwick airport’ is officially dead I’m afraid. Those days are long gone by the looks of it.
I mean in the holidays to Spain sense, not the long haul carriers who all wanted fo be at LHR and left flrst chance.
I mean Laker, Dan Air, Monarch, Ambassador, Excalibur, AirUK Leisure, Leisure International, Cal Air, Novair, BCAL Charter, Sabre, Orion, Airtours, MyTravel, JMC, Thomas Cook, Excel, IEA sort of thing but ideally minus the insolvency bit that got most of them....

That’s an awkward list, my apologies. I feel old...
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:51
  #828 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Foxtrot View Post
I mean in the holidays to Spain sense, not the long haul carriers who all wanted fo be at LHR and left flrst chance.
I mean Laker, Dan Air, Monarch, Ambassador, Excalibur, AirUK Leisure, Leisure International, Cal Air, Novair, BCAL Charter, Sabre, Orion, Airtours, MyTravel, JMC, Thomas Cook, Excel, IEA sort of thing but ideally minus the insolvency bit that got most of them....

That’s an awkward list, my apologies. I feel old...
But you’ve missed the point entirely or I didn’t make myself clear. None of those airlines exist anymore for a reason. Apart from Tui, the bucket and spade charters are very much a thing of the past. The golden days of charter airlines no longer exist. Easy, Ryanair etc are the way forward. Wizz a possibility.
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:58
  #829 (permalink)  
 
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Virgin leased a load of slots to easyJet post 9/11 and I believe those are still technically on lease. It's quite possible that there will be another such deal. The other obvious candidate would be Wizz growing and perhaps shifting its services out of Southend.
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Old 5th May 2020, 21:21
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I'm not sure much leasing out of slots at Gatwick by the likes of BA, Norwegian or Virgin will really happen (I don't count Vueling using BA slots as leasing since it's all within IAG). If leases are done, I imagine the terms will be extremely generous - e.g. for a nominal £1 - this is very much a buyer's market

When Gatwick was fairly full, obtaining slots required more effort - hence worthwhile for Easyjet to enter some sort of leasing relationship with another airline. If there's a major exodus from Gatwick, it's likely that slots will be much more available. Yes, Virgin / BA / Norwegian can say 'if you don't pay we won't lease the slots to you', but I imagine Wizz may call their bluff knowing these airlines will struggle to fulfil the 80% rule, and that ACL or Govt are unlikely to look well at such a claim. A more aggressive airline seeking slots at Gatwick might even decide to sue ACL if Gatwick slots are left unused while the entrant airline cannot gain the slot via the pool

If we assume slots are readily available, why would a new entrant (e.g. Wizz) want to bind itself to Virgin ? Perhaps easier to keep things simple, and for Wizz to just obtain as many slots as they can from the open pool - and not risk any ongoing return-of-lease obligations in case Virgin decide to return to Gatwick in 3 years time
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Old 5th May 2020, 21:30
  #831 (permalink)  
 
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How quickly would any slots being released by current airlines become available for new takers, if there are any?
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Old 5th May 2020, 22:26
  #832 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post

This is could be a turning point in the balance between LGW and STN, the latter massively benefiting from MAG ownership and the access and joint deals that can bring. Don’t forget STN has already scored victories with LGW-type routes and airlines recently, such as Air India and Air Senegal and even perhaps Air Corsica. Greek islands that used to be a LGW speciality.
Maybe that was because they could not get slots into Gatwick.

Train is also slow to London at around 47 minutes compared to half an hour.
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Old 5th May 2020, 22:48
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No one mentions easyJet growing further at LGW...

I wonder if they could purchase enough new slots, maybe they would consider consolidating their London operations from four to three bases? They are unlikely to be receiving any new Airbus for the forseeable future, so why not simply move them south of the river!

They make no secret that Gatwick is their most lucrative base.

The Stansted base is a shadow of the years gone by when it was Go/post-easyJet takeover, and I am sure it has been mentioned they were down to 6-8 aircraft. I am sure LTN/SEN could pick up some slack for the odd route that isn't already flown north of the river, that closing the STN base brings and also bolster the loads from those bases too.
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Old 5th May 2020, 23:01
  #834 (permalink)  
 
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No airline is going to give up prime time slots at Gatwick, period. If BA and Virgin aren’t going to use them in the short term, they’re going to lease them or slot sit (not required under current waiver).

I know the world is shrouded in negativity right now, but it will return to normal. Virgin have made it abundantly clear they’re keeping the Gatwick slots, BA won’t let any go and Norwegian will keep their entire set as long as they intend to keep the LGW base in 2021 (or earlier if demand picks up).

Any talk of Stansted suddenly becoming the airport of choice is pie in the sky. Airlines will always favour Gatwick over Stansted, this will never change.
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Old 6th May 2020, 01:33
  #835 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Vokes55 View Post
BA cut the bulk of their LGW hub post 9/11 and let easyJet in to take over. They’ve been playing catch up ever since. They won’t make that mistake again.
I think you're re-writing history. BA changed their strategy at LGW by de-hubbing in the early 2000s.
They had never turned a profit and lost millions in the years since taking over Dan Air in their attempt to build a second complimentary London hub. Sadly it wasn't possible to maintain yields on the routes moved to LHR as they found the front cabins stayed too empty as that market remained at LHR, and worse, flew with their competitors. So all the European business connectivity was removed and BA downsized, allowing easyJet to gain a foothold. Without the high cost base of 2000AD BA, easyJet could turn a decent yield on European leisure routes, whereas BA couldn't even get close. It took another decade of slashing costs at BA to get their costs down to anything that could compete with EZY. Only then did BA LGW grow again, into sun markets mainly using ex BMI A319s and a ragtag fleet of second hand A320s.
The idea that BA should have stuck in there losing millions year in year out doesn't wash. The original rationale for BA LGW was replaced by a new business model which seems to have made them money, but crucially, BA have no need to dominate LGW. There was no ambition to be the dominant network carrier at the airport, much of BA's LGW operation is predicated on flying leisure routes where Exec Club frequent fliers can burn their AVIOS and make sure they fill the front cabins out of LHR in the next FY. They're not looking to catch up with easyJet, it's not that sort of competiton. If the LHR market collapses to some extent, and it will, BA may end up picking up even more slots and be able to maintain more of the LGW network out of LHR. All this talk of Vueling coming in sounds a lot like the hype of Norwegian coming building up a few years back. It wasn't a sustainable model.

I know the world is shrouded in negativity right now, but it will return to normal. Virgin have made it abundantly clear they’re keeping the Gatwick slots, BA won’t let any go and Norwegian will keep their entire set as long as they intend to keep the LGW base in 2021 (or earlier if demand picks up).
There's a new normal coming up, we've just seen a bubble go pop.
I'm sorry but anyone thinking that Virgin will be back at LGW in the next five years is likely mistaken, traffic is very cyclical, and we're on the rollercoaster down. They're closing the hangar and ClubHouse, it's game over. No Delta either come to that, that's not happening either. The focus over the next 2-3 years will be stabilising LHR, protecting market share and paying off debt. On that basis, any growth that can't be accomodated out of LHR that needs the costs of setting up a LGW station and ClubHouse, that's a medium term growth aim, not something we'll be seeing soon.
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Old 6th May 2020, 01:41
  #836 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pamann View Post
But you’ve missed the point entirely or I didn’t make myself clear. None of those airlines exist anymore for a reason. Apart from Tui, the bucket and spade charters are very much a thing of the past. The golden days of charter airlines no longer exist. Easy, Ryanair etc are the way forward. Wizz a possibility.
I know that, I just mean in terms of getting pale English holidaymakers to the continent, LGW did that very well. Their inbound/outbound mix was always more skewed to the home market than LHR which brought in enormous volumes of overseas visitors in a way LGW never managed.
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Old 6th May 2020, 05:21
  #837 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Vokes55 View Post
Any talk of Stansted suddenly becoming the airport of choice is pie in the sky. Airlines will always favour Gatwick over Stansted, this will never change.
I have to agree with that statement. Luton, Stansted and Southend have all benefited from capacity restraints at Gatwick while Southend has further benefited from capacity issues at Luton.

Flights will clearly be consolidated to increase yields. Whether that involves just cutting back route capacity at each individual airport or merging routes to particular airports will all be revealed in the coming months.
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Old 6th May 2020, 06:32
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VS and LGW

This is desperately sad news for VS, LGW, but especially for all those facing job cuts at the base- I really do feel for them. I don't think any of us thought we'd ever see the day where VS would withdraw from LGW completely, even if the airline had gradually been reducing ops here in favour of LHR expansion. LGW was where it all began for VS back in 1984, so it doesn't bear thinking about no longer seeing their 744s/333s/332s at LGW; we certainly will miss them. I just hope that, on behalf of all the employees and ground staff, that it won't be too long before we see them back at Gatwick- I am sure they will return at some stage, even with a reduced network and reduced capacity as a result of the 744 retirement. The press release mentions that they are retaining their LGW slot portfolio to "allow us to return in the future" (see https://flywith.virginatlantic.com/g...ronavirus.html).

In the meantime, what do people think will become of the now former VS check in and Club lounge in the North terminal?
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Old 6th May 2020, 07:34
  #839 (permalink)  
 
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What of long haul operations? If BA pull out of LGW and VIR close will other long haul carriers take up the slack? Would LGW see more overseas operators coming in? Now Norwegian have been saved (for now) will they increase their schedules? Interesting times ahead.
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Old 6th May 2020, 08:02
  #840 (permalink)  
 
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A selection of airlines saying they will not be using their slots for 2020 but they intended to keep their slots for the time being.

Could Gatwick find themselves turning business away at a half empty airport?
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