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Flybe-9

Old 26th Nov 2018, 11:52
  #1181 (permalink)  
c52
 
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Why would a Spanish company, IAG, be allowed to own another British airline after Brexit?

Since Flybe's greatest contribution to connectivity helps AF/KL (I think), why would IAG want it - except to put a temporary end to that connectivity?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 12:43
  #1182 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by c52 View Post
Why would a Spanish company, IAG, be allowed to own another British airline after Brexit?

Since Flybe's greatest contribution to connectivity helps AF/KL (I think), why would IAG want it - except to put a temporary end to that connectivity?
Why not. Freedom of the markets and weak Pound makes it an attractive deal. Though post acquisition I remain intrigued at the notion there'll be an option to restructure Flybe, pool the fuel hedging in with that of the wider IAG consortium hedging, restructure aircraft leasing using investment vehicles taxed domiciled out of Dublin, using refreshed aircraft leasing arrangements using leasing arrangements domiciled from Dublin, that will free up significant cost overheads which are strangling Flybe. Registered the entire fleet to EI, refinance debt with a new bond, collateral or parental guarantee from IAG, strip out waste and back office, pool it all including IT using existing IT and back office functions of the wider IAG operations. These sort of measures give Flybe a better than fighting chance to prosper and grow and it will secure if not create greater employment opportunities for flight crew and cabin crew, ultimately save jobs, grow and contribute to the national economy. I'm quietly confident, this could end up quite good for Flybe and it's crews.

I'm not convinced some of the companies touted in the media as being potential buyers are the right buyers to deliver and capitalise on a deal. Deep pockets, investment heavy weight is needed in the debt markets to put a bond away, for me IAG is the 100-pound gorilla in this shake down. Just my humble personal opinion.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 15:13
  #1183 (permalink)  
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Do we know that whatever form Brexit takes, UK airlines will be allowed to be owned abroad?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 15:30
  #1184 (permalink)  
 
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Based on what's happening in other sectors, I would expect the current majority EU ownership requirement to be converted to majority UK ownership, with any subsequent change having to go through parliament.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:07
  #1185 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset View Post
Question for those in the know. I bought Flybe shares a while ago. If IAG buy Flybe what will happen to Flybe shares?
You will receive communication from Flybe that a company has offered X for shares and the directors have recommend the offer is accepted. You will be provided with a low cost option to sell shares on.

BUT if you decide to hold onto them then once the buyers own 90% of the shares they will just cancel your shares and send you a cheque to the value of the shares you hold................. this will be at OFFER price. They cannot buy them for more or less than the OFFER price made to the other shareholders. This may seem a bit strange BUT this is to prevent a situation where someone with 10% of the shares gets a better price than someone with 10 shares.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:11
  #1186 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Based on what's happening in other sectors, I would expect the current majority EU ownership requirement to be converted to majority UK ownership, with any subsequent change having to go through parliament.
Agree and airlines line IAG / Easyjet / Ryanair will effect complulsory purchase of shares if required to ensure shareholding falls below 50% registered in UK.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:15
  #1187 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
Except there isn't really the airlines with either the aircraft or the will nor the profile to run routes from airports like CWL EXT and SOU whether they are profitable or not. Imo they'll be lost never to be replaced.
At the moment to what I have highlighted. If closed down and there is a profitable option then others will emerge to open up routes.

Joy of capitalism is is people invest to make a profit. If nobody invests and it cuts capacity out of the market then prices will likely rise as existng operators seek to generate a better return. As consumers we hate this but working for a company we like this as this generates Profit to invest back into the business and pay a dividend to shareholders.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:21
  #1188 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by unowot View Post
Sadly I doubt IAG will have the slightest interest in Flybe. They would be returning to a market where they saw massive losses as BA Regional. I also Doubt if Virgin will be interested, their entry into the short haul business was a financial disaster and relatively short lived. As the larger markets are well served by carriers with lower seat costs, there is no future here for a carrier operating expensive turboprops. So the future is likely to be in Niche markets and by definition there are not too many of these that will support mid size turbo props. I do hope Flybe survives but I fear it will shrink to do this. Good Luck.
There is I believe quite a bit of truth in this. IAG worried that they will lose connecting passengers. Somehow I doubt this and would debate any value in it. They will also know how many people are connecting and what the revenue is.

If 150 pax are transferring per week from Flybe service from one airport and using LH services then it make be justifiable to ensure there is connectivity between that and LHR/LCY. If it is 2 a week then wouldn't spend any time on keeping route.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:26
  #1189 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by macdo View Post
Sadly. as has been proved over the last 20 years, most of your compatriots prefer to hop over the Severn Bridge and use BRS. Whatever the outcome of this negotiation, the future of feeder routes from CWL and others is looking pretty bleak. IMHO.
Bearing in mind Severn Tolls are over then this will also impact on whether to fly from CWL or BRS. Not just the cost but the biggeration factor of their being a Toll as well.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:30
  #1190 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by mik3bravo View Post
Why not. Freedom of the markets and weak Pound makes it an attractive deal. Though post acquisition I remain intrigued at the notion there'll be an option to restructure Flybe, pool the fuel hedging in with that of the wider IAG consortium hedging, restructure aircraft leasing using investment vehicles taxed domiciled out of Dublin, using refreshed aircraft leasing arrangements using leasing arrangements domiciled from Dublin, that will free up significant cost overheads which are strangling Flybe. Registered the entire fleet to EI, refinance debt with a new bond, collateral or parental guarantee from IAG, strip out waste and back office, pool it all including IT using existing IT and back office functions of the wider IAG operations. These sort of measures give Flybe a better than fighting chance to prosper and grow and it will secure if not create greater employment opportunities for flight crew and cabin crew, ultimately save jobs, grow and contribute to the national economy. I'm quietly confident, this could end up quite good for Flybe and it's crews.

I'm not convinced some of the companies touted in the media as being potential buyers are the right buyers to deliver and capitalise on a deal. Deep pockets, investment heavy weight is needed in the debt markets to put a bond away, for me IAG is the 100-pound gorilla in this shake down. Just my humble personal opinion.
Love your optimism but I don't see a good side coming from this. More like a Monarch story. Hopefully your are right.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:32
  #1191 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Bearing in mind Severn Tolls are over then this will also impact on whether to fly from CWL or BRS. Not just the cost but the biggeration factor of their being a Toll as well.
The Severn Tolls have never really been a barrier to people from Wales flying from Bristol and most people from the Bristol side don't even give CWL a thought when looking for flights from the region .
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:38
  #1192 (permalink)  
 
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Having used the current LGW-NQY route I can say with fairly good knowledge that the service carries a decent proportion of connecting passengers, certainly on the morning and evening rotations, I can’t speak for the middle one as iv never used it.

But considering they codeshare with BA, VS and EK on the route it’s not surprising the see bags appearing at NQY from all over. I’m certainly not the only one down this way that uses the route to connect put it that way


cs
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:43
  #1193 (permalink)  
 
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could IAGbuy the company and use part of it to replace Stobart at Aer Lingus regional? That would take up 10 aircraft and allow for e-jet expansion. Another half dozen could operate thinner routes ex LCY.

How do Flybe and Stobart CASK compare?
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:55
  #1194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
The Severn Tolls have never really been a barrier to people from Wales flying from Bristol and most people from the Bristol side don't even give CWL a thought when looking for flights from the region .
Heard that one before from people about WTF wants to drive to an airport in Cambridge, for a flight to Europe, from Surrey, when Gatwick is just down the road. Saving 200 for 2 people suddenly converted people very quickly.

The tolls are just an additional cost people factor in, removed then it is no longer at back of people's mind.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 18:58
  #1195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Copenhagen View Post
could IAGbuy the company and use part of it to replace Stobart at Aer Lingus regional? That would take up 10 aircraft and allow for e-jet expansion. Another half dozen could operate thinner routes ex LCY.

How do Flybe and Stobart CASK compare?
Why spend so much on buying old equipment when can buy new and set up own network to suit you. If buy whole of Flybe then responsible for everything including redundancies etc.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 20:39
  #1196 (permalink)  
 
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Is there any actual solid info to back up the VS/IAG talks coming from any sources. If both walk away what's options are left to BE. Not many I would humbly suggest other than a potential nose dive in share price.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 20:50
  #1197 (permalink)  
 
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I'd been thinking the same, the STK contracts up soon isn't it? Goodness knows what change of direction there has been in the boardroom at STK in recent times.

I think with the dash/ejet, you could expand the EIR offer to about 20 a/c flying Dublin to more marginal mainland Europe destinations.

​​​​​​The ATR isn't best suited to transatlantic feeder services, there has been many a story about lack of hold capacity.

Some frames could go into help BACF at LCY. With a carving knife to the rest of the bases and routes and with IAGs buying power, then I would think it would be possible to run the op profitably.

We could push the boat further if there has been any fall out with YW since WX merged with them. Having witnessed first hand the absolute diabolical EI/WX service going on at LCY - there are going to be some big falls out. I've never had such a bad experience with any airline.

The bigger question however is why? EIR runs very well at present, unless they are playing very hard knowing it would be one hell of a task to swap it all over. The UK side of it would provide very little feed for BA unless they have plans to open up, say a MAN TA hub? If they get pre-clearance facilities it might be a possible.

I think it is wrong of people to say that because something didn't work in the past wouldn't work in the future. EI commuter/regional is a testament to that. I'd love to see a BA regional.

Flying regularly NCL-EXT/SOU intra UK flights are a godsend. I couldn't imagine doing it regularly via train - nor could I afford to! There is space for a UK regional carrier but one that is well run and perhaps a little less ambitious to take over Europe.

Finally, everyone will be putting their name into the hat at this stage, if only to have a nose about in the financials.

Last edited by bigjim99; 26th Nov 2018 at 21:03.
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 21:40
  #1198 (permalink)  
 
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@bigjim99 - I'm curious to learn more about your previous comment:

Having witnessed first hand the absolute diabolical EI/WX service going on at LCY - there are going to be some big falls out. I've never had such a bad experience with any airline.
Are you in a position to explain in more detail, or happy to take it off-line in a pm
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Old 26th Nov 2018, 23:37
  #1199 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Cazza_fly View Post
Not necessarily? Afterall it is IAG that the reports are saying are interested NOT BA who are indeed of course a brand of the group. Realistically there would be no gain in rebranding the airline to anything BA. By doing so they would need to align the product to that of BA / Cityflyer, so not to have yet more variation and inconsistency service offering on BAs network. Things such as Club Europe would need to be offered, a product that could cost more than they make to offer on many of Flybe regional routes if even needed at all. It also increases costs and overheads.

The best bet would be to keep Flybe completely separate of any of the groups current branding just like all their other takeovers. Being prominently in the UK, it's understandable that they could potentially allign more with BA on some of the network by increasing code sharing and perhaps using the Flybe brand on some of their routes that would work better with a single class / low cost carrier e.g the Cityflyer regional summer routes but booked under the Flybe brand and service but using Cityflyers spare capacity at these tumes
I think the opposite. If IAG were interested, I think the real opportunity to increase value would be by rebranding to some variation of BA, as that is IAG's 'premium' brand in the UK, and Flybe is very much UK focused. BA seem to have been successful in positioning themselves brand wise above the low cost carriers and although fares are a factor they don't have to compete directly on fares. I think that is exactly what is needed to increase revenue for Flybe, because at the moment as Flybe they too much in the low cost carrier space.

They wouldn't need to need to match other BA brand standards exactly, as there are already some differences anyway between BA and BA Cityflyer. If the branded Flybe something else e.g. BA Express, BA Regional, FlyBA etc there could be further differentiation whilst still capitalising on the BA brand.

Rather than Club Europe being a cost, it would be an opportunity to increase revenue, as really it would be little more than providing a sandwich, and the seating configuration on the Q400's would mean they don't even have to block out any seats.
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Old 27th Nov 2018, 06:28
  #1200 (permalink)  
 
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I'm of similar opinion, a new brand to mark new beginning. Leveraging success of bigger brands to help maximise brand identity.
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