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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:49
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn

Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:55
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
Exactly what I thought; why would FlyBe supplier revenue data to any organisation to that level of detail to enable them to produce this statistic?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:02
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All they do is scrape fares websites and make assumptions. It's an educated guess at best trying to be sold as insightful business intelligence. Quite a lot of airlines/airports fall for it though.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:10
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As I've posted elsewhere: If Flybe are making heavy losses (from SEN) there is little hope for them given that they are operating there without any significant commercial risk.

I suspect this is some sort of total cost of operations v revenue exercise and fails to take account of details such as the cost of operations at SEN is carried by someone else, ie Stobart.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:13
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
Exactly what I thought; why would FlyBe supplier revenue data to any organisation to that level of detail to enable them to produce this statistic?
Here's what I wrote earlier today a little bit up this thread:
I believe their numbers are based on screen-scraping fares, estimating averages, and looking at flyBE's published accounts to estimate the cost base, so they are not gospel, but they seem a reasonable first estimate.
FlyBE does not provide any data to them. This company (along with a couple of other firms that I know of) provide analysis services/products to airports and other aviation firms based on continually screenscraping available fares from the booking engine and estimating the resultant yield. Does this method result in 100% accurate stats? Certainly not. Does it result in stats accurate enough for an awful lot of airports and other companies (including my employer) to subscribe to one of these services? Yes.

Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
Not sure what the issue is with NCL. The schedule data I'm looking at tells me flyBE flies from NCL to EXT and SOU and Eastern under a flyBE code flies from NCL to ABZ and CWL. Is this wrong? And from CDG and NCL I see a range of flyBE flights too. I don't think they mean "base" as in crew base, more "airport with multiple routes".

In my earlier post I posted the link to the original graph on LinkedIn, where people have been commenting on the data and asking questions which the analyst has been answering. I imagine they can probably answer your questions there too better than I can.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:22
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Originally Posted by Cyrano
Here's what I wrote earlier today a little bit up this thread:


FlyBE does not provide any data to them. This company (along with a couple of other firms that I know of) provide analysis services/products to airports and other aviation firms based on continually screenscraping available fares from the booking engine and estimating the resultant yield. Does this method result in 100% accurate stats? Certainly not. Does it result in stats accurate enough for an awful lot of airports and other companies (including my employer) to subscribe to one of these services? Yes.


Not sure what the issue is with NCL. The schedule data I'm looking at tells me flyBE flies from NCL to EXT and SOU and Eastern under a flyBE code flies from NCL to ABZ and CWL. Is this wrong? And from CDG and NCL I see a range of flyBE flights too. I don't think they mean "base" as in crew base, more "airport with multiple routes".

In my earlier post I posted the link to the original graph on LinkedIn, where people have been commenting on the data and asking questions which the analyst has been answering. I imagine they can probably answer your questions there too better than I can.
Simple they are not bases so anaylsing them separately changes the results because the flights are non based. Also Easterns routes although sold through Flybe aren't Flybe's routes ad the profits surely go to Eastern and not Flybe.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:24
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn

Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


This in my view is such a misleading representstion.
The ranking should be in terms of size of base, ie SOU, BHX, MAN, BHD.. these are the lions share of the aircraft...

What is the source if this data? BHD, not surprising given the penetration of low costers in the market...
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:29
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Originally Posted by cornishsimon
Letís be honest here.

The purpose of the STK/BE tie up was to open up SEN and prove it was viable and that people would use it

they proved that routes were viable and that people wanted to use SEN, the franchise served its purpose and STk can take a loss from it because they have now attracted FR to operate along side U2, all of which will pay STK for the use of SEN and ground handling and fuel etc

job done. I donít think STK are stupid with the way this has played out

cs
PLUS Stobart use the FLYBE reservation systems.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 19:44
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Much use of the Aviation Analytics data in this thread - though this seems flawed and somewhat sketchy - airports missing, data not taking into account code shares, data ranked by potential Profit or Loss amount by ticket, and not ranked by total amount by airport etc..
A bit more data might more accurately reflect the actual position, which might be a bit better.... or indeed a bit or a lot worse.

However, what might be most important is Aviation Analytics own view of flybe - "the underlying business is sound".
The domestic APD charge of £13.50 per sector is flybe's enemy.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 22:21
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The figures in the graph are utterly useless (also ignoring franchises, along with the other faults).

Flybe's accounts tell me that their underlying business might not be entirely sound, but is recoverable and certainly isn't awful. Even if the E195s are a convenient excuse and the effect of them wasn't quite as bad as they try to make out, they were still a momentously disastrous event in their history. However, many business with sound trading in present but disasters lurking in their history have failed, like Sky Europe and Fly Globespan.

We have lost passenger services from a lot of regional airports in recent years, and it's right to be fearful for them. It may not be that FlyBe itself is the direct cause of the next one having problems. However the same market factors that are causing FlyBe to have problems very well could. There are two obvious candidates for being next (or three if passenger services at CAX ever start...) :-(
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 09:24
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The figures in the graph are utterly useless (also ignoring franchises, along with the other faults).
Ah yes - but the colours are pretty!
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 09:44
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Flybe at NWI

Originally Posted by NickBarnes
Norwich will be fine without Flybe I can assure you Mike/Jaysata, Aberdeen would almost certainly be replaced, and I'd porbably see someone else replacing one of the sun routes at least, possibly just lose the Exeter route, so really has little relevance to it all, airports like SOU etc have a hell of a lot more to lose. Any further posts from Mike please ignore everyone.
well said yes Norwich is a bit behind but still runs a good service with what they have got
the Aberdeen route is a Eastern Airways slot operated by BMI so that will remain maybe Loganair will pick it up
The Exeter route is used for crewing purpose on the Alicante Malaga flights they change crew in Exeter
could see another operator maybe but to attract new customers need to rethink about the airport tax
The summer Jersey flight been cancelled next year
uncertain times

Mark
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 11:31
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According to this article Flybe won't go bust.
https://www.headforpoints.com/2018/11/17/why-flybe-will-not-go-bankrupt/
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 12:20
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I wouldnt put my house on it....
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 19:51
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
According to this article Flybe won't go bust.
https://www.headforpoints.com/2018/1...t-go-bankrupt/
All good and well but have doubts got into customers heads, advanced bookings must be down, we have seen a similar thing on a much larger scale with Monarch, Gossip and rumour is very damaging, once doubts and rumours are in the traveling public domain nothing is certain unfortunately.
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 20:00
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Originally Posted by daz211


All good and well but have doubts got into customers heads, advanced bookings must be down, we have seen a similar thing on a much larger scale with Monarch, Gossip and rumour is very damaging, once doubts and rumours are in the traveling public domain nothing is certain unfortunately.
That is mentioned in the article. The negative publicity could slow sales down and have the effect of making them go bust. Hopefully everything happening with Brexit means people aren't paying much attention to it.
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 20:43
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Would have thought the potential demise of flybe is a welcome distraction for the masses from the brexit debacle
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 20:57
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Originally Posted by Brigantee
Would have thought the potential demise of flybe is a welcome distraction for the masses from the brexit debacle
I doubt it. Brexit is the number one news story. Flybe's troubles are barely a footnote compared to Brexit news.
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 21:23
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Originally Posted by Brigantee
Would have thought the potential demise of flybe is a welcome distraction for the masses from the brexit debacle
Think most people will not know its even an airline..................... which is part of the problem.
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Old 17th Nov 2018, 22:30
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Originally Posted by racedo
Think most people will not know its even an airline..................... which is part of the problem.

Im sure thatís not the case , The seemingly never ending litany of mechanical disasters that are reported with glee by the press involving the Q 400 aircraft have given flybe a certain notoriety in the publicís eye
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