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Flybe-9

Old 16th Nov 2018, 13:56
  #881 (permalink)  
 
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Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:16
  #882 (permalink)  
 
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Ncl is top .... wow we aren't base but likely to be the most profit for routes

seems strange to believe that they didn't try other routes from the north east airport
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:22
  #883 (permalink)  
 
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I have already stated on the Norwich post that they won't apart from oil related (helis and Eastern) and the TUI flights they currently have. It is very difficult to make money flying even BHX-GLA etc.

There are/have been many airports that have no hope of sensible levels of traffic. DTV,NWI,DSA ( while LBA exist anyway), EXT, CWL ( while Bristol exists) HUY etc. They can only survive by diversification ( maintenance, aircraft parking etc. or local or government subsidy ( which PIK does along with many others e.g. INV, SYY). Especially with BREXIT and rising fuel costs.

Last edited by 22/04; 16th Nov 2018 at 14:50.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:26
  #884 (permalink)  
 
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Mike - the Norwich agenda sounds very reminiscent of JaySata. Given that Flybe is a very small part of Norwich and doesn't even feature on the graph you've posted (because it's so small) then I think it's fairer to consider the implications where major bases like SOU, CWL etc are concerned rather than the obsessive focus on NWI?!
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:32
  #885 (permalink)  
 
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As has been previosuly posted, this base profitabilty analysis is skewed by AF/KL code shares.

seems strange to believe that they didn't try other routes from the north east airport
Haven't they tried over the years?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:37
  #886 (permalink)  
 
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Southend is a bit of a shocker.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:42
  #887 (permalink)  
 
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Flightrider

I no longer hide behind a nom de plume as Tracey Curtis Taylor outed me in the long running saga elsewhere.

I agree that CWL is a major base and have some pretty strong connections with Rhoose as I soloed there back in 1981 and was one of the founders of the Cardiff Wales Flying Club.

I also spent many happy hours using Norwich both as a pilot and passenger before the disastrous sale by the local authorities to private investors who have turned it in to little more than a shed with a runway.

In the case of the latter their attitude and so called ‘airport development fee’ has not helped airlines such as Flybe gain regular passengers.

I see the same commercial suicide on UK city streets where a combination of business rates and anti car philosophies has led to a disaster for retailers.
22/04 There are/have been many airports that have no hope of sensible levels of traffic. DTV,NOR,DSA ( while LBA exist anyway), EXT, CWL ( while Bristol exists) HUY etc. They can only survive by diversification ( maintenance, aircraft parking etc. or local or government subsidy ( which PIK does along with many others e.g. INV, SYY). Especially with BREXIT and rising fuel costs.
Agreed.








Last edited by Mike Flynn; 16th Nov 2018 at 14:58.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:46
  #888 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sharklet_321 View Post
People don't want to pay a bloody fortune to fly these days not only because of APD but because of the state of the average persons pockets and the fact that you can now fly to the US with Norwegian for the price of a return flight to Scotland with Flybe.
You can for the moment but Norwegian are loss making, don’t let the Q2 results with their reappraisal of shares in banks and moves in forward currency transactions fool you, net yields are less than net costs. They’re bleeding cash. Sooner or later they’re going to have to start making real profits and that will not be by selling seats below cost as they’re doing right now.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 14:48
  #889 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pain in the R's View Post
Southend is a bit of a shocker.
I wouldn’t say it was a shocker, ticket prices would be lower as competition is higher.
SEN is trying to attract PAX from LCY, STN, LGW, LHR.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:02
  #890 (permalink)  
 
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SEN has eight trains an hour to London.45 minutes to Stratford.
Cardiff and Norwich are in the stone age by comparison with taxis and public transport being poor.

Flybe should have stuck to the profitable routes and dumped the rest.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:16
  #891 (permalink)  
 
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Heavens Mike - Norwich is barely relevant to the Flybe thread and yet here we are again. Give us a break, will you?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:31
  #892 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by daz211 View Post


I wouldn’t say it was a shocker, ticket prices would be lower as competition is higher.
SEN is trying to attract PAX from LCY, STN, LGW, LHR.
A key reason for the low yields is that Stobart were underwriting some fundamentally unsustainable operations, in order to put SEN on the map (which they are entitled to do, but this is where the result is visible!)
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 15:37
  #893 (permalink)  
 
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Let’s be honest here.

The purpose of the STK/BE tie up was to open up SEN and prove it was viable and that people would use it

they proved that routes were viable and that people wanted to use SEN, the franchise served its purpose and STk can take a loss from it because they have now attracted FR to operate along side U2, all of which will pay STK for the use of SEN and ground handling and fuel etc

job done. I don’t think STK are stupid with the way this has played out

cs
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 17:49
  #894 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn View Post

Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 17:55
  #895 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
Exactly what I thought; why would FlyBe supplier revenue data to any organisation to that level of detail to enable them to produce this statistic?
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:02
  #896 (permalink)  
 
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All they do is scrape fares websites and make assumptions. It's an educated guess at best trying to be sold as insightful business intelligence. Quite a lot of airlines/airports fall for it though.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:10
  #897 (permalink)  
 
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As I've posted elsewhere: If Flybe are making heavy losses (from SEN) there is little hope for them given that they are operating there without any significant commercial risk.

I suspect this is some sort of total cost of operations v revenue exercise and fails to take account of details such as the cost of operations at SEN is carried by someone else, ie Stobart.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:13
  #898 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Exactly what I thought; why would FlyBe supplier revenue data to any organisation to that level of detail to enable them to produce this statistic?
Here's what I wrote earlier today a little bit up this thread:
I believe their numbers are based on screen-scraping fares, estimating averages, and looking at flyBE's published accounts to estimate the cost base, so they are not gospel, but they seem a reasonable first estimate.
FlyBE does not provide any data to them. This company (along with a couple of other firms that I know of) provide analysis services/products to airports and other aviation firms based on continually screenscraping available fares from the booking engine and estimating the resultant yield. Does this method result in 100% accurate stats? Certainly not. Does it result in stats accurate enough for an awful lot of airports and other companies (including my employer) to subscribe to one of these services? Yes.

Originally Posted by PDXCWL45
That is based on ticket prices and i doubt very much that the person who compiled it knows the ins and outs of Flybe's routes. The fact that they've included Amsterdam and Paris and Newcastle points to that.
Not sure what the issue is with NCL. The schedule data I'm looking at tells me flyBE flies from NCL to EXT and SOU and Eastern under a flyBE code flies from NCL to ABZ and CWL. Is this wrong? And from CDG and NCL I see a range of flyBE flights too. I don't think they mean "base" as in crew base, more "airport with multiple routes".

In my earlier post I posted the link to the original graph on LinkedIn, where people have been commenting on the data and asking questions which the analyst has been answering. I imagine they can probably answer your questions there too better than I can.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:22
  #899 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cyrano View Post
Here's what I wrote earlier today a little bit up this thread:


FlyBE does not provide any data to them. This company (along with a couple of other firms that I know of) provide analysis services/products to airports and other aviation firms based on continually screenscraping available fares from the booking engine and estimating the resultant yield. Does this method result in 100% accurate stats? Certainly not. Does it result in stats accurate enough for an awful lot of airports and other companies (including my employer) to subscribe to one of these services? Yes.


Not sure what the issue is with NCL. The schedule data I'm looking at tells me flyBE flies from NCL to EXT and SOU and Eastern under a flyBE code flies from NCL to ABZ and CWL. Is this wrong? And from CDG and NCL I see a range of flyBE flights too. I don't think they mean "base" as in crew base, more "airport with multiple routes".

In my earlier post I posted the link to the original graph on LinkedIn, where people have been commenting on the data and asking questions which the analyst has been answering. I imagine they can probably answer your questions there too better than I can.
Simple they are not bases so anaylsing them separately changes the results because the flights are non based. Also Easterns routes although sold through Flybe aren't Flybe's routes ad the profits surely go to Eastern and not Flybe.
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Old 16th Nov 2018, 18:24
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn View Post

Looking at the stats it begs the question where will the small airports such as Norwich get their traffic if Flybe go under.

Cardiff is clearly not profitable.


This in my view is such a misleading representstion.
The ranking should be in terms of size of base, ie SOU, BHX, MAN, BHD.. these are the lions share of the aircraft...

What is the source if this data? BHD, not surprising given the penetration of low costers in the market...
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