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Flybe-9

Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:07
  #601 (permalink)  
 
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As a user of GLA I wouldn't be bothered about any cuts because Loganair would fill the gaps.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:17
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Originally Posted by billyg
Yes , but they're not very happy with their Edinburgh base !
maybe not but I'd have thought that Edinburgh would be more important to them
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:18
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Good point mwm991... in fact bmi regional, Loganair, Blue Islands and Eastern are probably all waiting on Flybe to go under for exactly that reason.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:29
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They have said they have been happy with quiet a few other bases that are now shut even after swapping aircraft types there and training all the crew up to fly the new type sometimes less than a year after they heavily invested in training.

You will just have to wait and see what the financial types decide. punters tend to always favour there local base and think everything is great there, mind you so do the crew. But when it comes down to seat yield and competition the bean counters will win.

I do have empathy for the pax but after having several mates be made redundant by flybe then weeks later be asked to return (which thankfully they refused as they were just so pissed off with them) what ever happens it will cause a great deal of stress to a vast number of family's which won't be affected by if their base closes or not. From the last round of redundancy's I think everyone I know is pretty glad they left. Several operators are now sniffing out the crew both on jet and Q400 and also technicians. It could be they have no option with some bases if they have to many people move on. I have already stuck 3 cv's through of Q400 Captains to other mates who are looking for heavy TP drivers. A reluctance to move the family or go sideways to ATR will be the handbrake for most. Now Ryanair have thrown a carrot out for PIC time quickly on a 737-800 for Q400 PIC then it maybe carrot enough to abandon ship.

This is all speculation on my part.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:59
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Is there no way the remaining E95ís could be handed back to the lessor early with a financial agreement being struck? Iím sure there are early term penalties but this might be more cost effective than keeping hold of, just a thought!
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 11:59
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How to rescue Flybe:
1) Bring back Saad
2 Get rid of the Jets
3)Focus on Belfast, Birmingham, Exeter, Glasgow, Manchester and Southampton. Close all other bases and cut routes that are loss makers.
4) Sell or park non Q400 fleet.
5) Sell simulators and out source line and base maintenance.


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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:02
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Id imagine they'll ditch Glasgow long before Edinburgh, even despite their unhappiness with current arrangements at the airport. More inbound tourism and business traffic, so I'd guess money will talk.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:18
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Any thoughts on the Isle of Man? Currently they have Stobart Air on a wet lease operating MAN LPL and BHX. They plan to re open the base from 1 Apr next year. Some insiders who want to relocate home have yet to have their basing letters.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:22
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From BHD thread

Flybe LPLlooks like it is gone from end of December??
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:24
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Originally Posted by hatton
How to rescue Flybe:
1) Bring back Saad
2 Get rid of the Jets
3)Focus on Belfast, Birmingham, Exeter, Glasgow, Manchester and Southampton. Close all other bases and cut routes that are loss makers.
4) Sell or park non Q400 fleet.
5) Sell simulators and out source line and base maintenance.
So your suggestion is to shrink the airline, thereby increasing the already uncompetitive costs, increase their presence at big airports and expose themselves further to competition. At the same time you want to sell off profitable parts of the company? The ATR's at SK are on a white-label deal, if they are not making money on those, there is no hope for the airline - white label and ACMI flying can be highly profitable.
Do you really think flyBe could obtain line maintenance and training cheaper on the open market? How much guaranteed business would they have to give to the new owners? With the level of expertise flyBe has built up wit the Q400 and E-Jets I think outsourced maintenance could increase their costs, reduce fleet reliability or both.

I agree that flyBe needs to focus. It might be that smaller, regional bases with limited competition make sense. The reality is without the numbers everyone will cheer for their local airport. Domestic connections at MAN/BHX/GLA/EDI seem unattractive to me, low yield, long journey times - let that market to trains and coaches. Subsidised flying at CWL and DSA is a game out of the FR playbook. these different things can work - but with focus. Is flyBe a local airline for local people or a low cost airline with ruthless revenue generation that happens to fly 70-120 sear aircraft?
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:25
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Why not have Eastern operate from bases like Cardiff and Aberdeen with J41s as part of the franchise deal?
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:29
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.

2Excel Aviation at Lasham, Bruce Dickinson at Cardiff or KLM UK at Norwich would, I am sure be very competitive for base maintenance.

would it be out of the realms of possibility for Stobbarts to buy Flybe?
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:32
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Eastern donít seem to have the crew to operate their own routes out of Aberdeen without regular disruption.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:41
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Given the knock backs my suggestions have been with perhaps a take over by Stobbarts is Flybeís only hope.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:55
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Originally Posted by hatton
Given the knock backs my suggestions have been with perhaps a take over by Stobbarts is Flybeís only hope.
Itís a deal that has been looked at within recent memory, if I recall.

The thing is, I suspect that relatively modest revenue generation combined with APD makes it a tough space to make money in. Painting the aircraft white, purple or lilac wonít make much difference. Equally ATR, Q400 or E-Jet themselves arenít going to make or break the airlines. Stobart couldnít make SEN-GLA/MAN work for example, with ATRs.

I do think there is a role for an airline like BE, but domestic U.K. opportunities arenít endless. Franchising, connections and code-shares can all add complexity, but little revenue. Itís a well trodden road to extinction. Focussed airlines like Ryanair, easyJet, TUI, Thomas Cook and KL Cityhopper have thrived in U.K. regions. Unfocused, confused airlines like bmi and bmibaby havenít.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 12:58
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Originally Posted by hatton
Cardiff
Doncaster
Southampton

I would get rid of all the Embraer jets including the 175s☹️
How easy would it be to get out of the project blackbird deals at CWL and DSA? I thought they were 10 year agreements.

Using CWL as an example, are only operated from there;
VCE MXP MUC


How well does MAN and SOU do as a hub? Could a better hub setup be created in order to feed onto quiter routes to mainland Europe within 2 hours?
I've looked at BEs route network in the past and the German/French etc routes are randomly operated from some Airports and not others.

Is their route network strong enough or just randomly picked? Using CWL as an example, MUC FCO and VCE are only operated from CWL, nowhere else. Given they have a number of jets in the fleet, are they being wasted being used on domestic routes where they could be building up the network on longer routes from other airports?
SOU has quite a variety of routes, especially in France. It would be interesting to know how many people connect through SOU onto these routes? Similarly at CWL with the above routes which are offered as connections when booking from Airports like BHD and EDI

I'm not sure what the issues are at EDI but I have read that Airport charges are starting to play a part for other Airlines. If that's the case, could they build a route network out of EDI but with less aircraft based there, thus saving on overnight parking charges if they can get a good deal at cheaper regional Airports?
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 13:05
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How about setting up a base at EMA. Itís central location would help and it already operates a number if routes into there.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 13:22
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How about setting up a base at EMA. It’s central location would help and it already operates a number if routes into there
I'm not anti EMA but no one seems to have made a success of true scheduled routes from EMA. The airport has relied in a limited way on viable non-sun routes by true LoCos and on sun routes by both LoCos and Inclusive tour operators. I doubt that would work.

Does anyone know if LHR is profitable - if not that would be one of my first targets.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 13:44
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East Midlands growth has been stunted by the development at Doncaster and Birmingham. It does well to handle 4.5m pax every year! Location of that airport perfect for cargo but not high yielding pax.
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Old 22nd Oct 2018, 14:02
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I think they are gradually choking at SOU tbh, the new deal they got after using BOH as leverage, as some what back fired on them.
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