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Flybe-9

Old 23rd Oct 2020, 20:30
  #4441 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
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Originally Posted by SKOJB View Post
Canít imagine any new startup will involve more than 10-15 airframes!
I've seen mention of 12 airframes. SOU, EXT and MAN likely first bases
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 21:47
  #4442 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
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I really hope I'm wrong but I do think you need to be in a dream world to think this will happen any time before 2022 or a vaccine of decent efficacy and distribution coming into the mix quickly.

I think a lot of enthusiasm is understandably coming from ex-flyBe crews but sadly they are completely out of touch with the true scale of the issue aviation is facing right now. Most have not worked in aviation since pre-lockdown when airports still had open shops; more than one lane of security open; busy long stay car parks and more than half a page on the departures/arrivals boards.

The situation is truly bleak. Walking to the crew room past empty arrival halls, stationary baggage belts and shuttered shops to then fly single digit loads is the story we are currently facing. The routes I am flying are not international either, so are applicable to the likely market which would be targeted.

Just looking at what other airlines are doing on the ex flybe network is indicative too. Combining services between regional airports just to make it work. Routes which were once 4 times daily down to twice per week. Constant reductions in schedules etc.

All of this combined with ever changing and confusing guidelines and advice from the government on travel and misconceptions on cabin air. Oh, and did I mention the "bounce back greener" initiative?

Sorry to be so bleak but an investment company buying a "brand" which has a largely unsettled reputation and no AOC or aircraft truly aren't breaking into this market anytime soon. Again I would genuinely love to be proven wrong!
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Old 23rd Oct 2020, 22:09
  #4443 (permalink)  
 
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For the next 6 months... template posts in this thread should read....

"I've been told by someone involved.... that the bases will be INSERT BASES HERE: XXX XXX XXX"
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 03:41
  #4444 (permalink)  
 
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You're not wrong but I don't think that anyone would imagine this operation would really take-off before 2022 in any case. In my opinion this may well be the start of a few start-ups because from a business perspective the current opportunity in the Airline industry is phenomenal. As mentioned previously everything is super cheap for the next 5 years- Crew, Aircraft, Fuel, Airport space etc. On top of that all current competition is irrevocably harmed. BA, Easyjet, Ryanair etc are adding debt piles to stay afloat. There will be a lot of slots (previously worth a lot of money) freely available at Heathrow and Gatwick. BA will never return to it's previous size. It will be new debt free players that will be the "new normal" in the post Covid Airline world.
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 06:18
  #4445 (permalink)  
 
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Flybe’s most profitable international routes

https://www.anna.aero/2020/10/23/fly...till-unserved/
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 10:28
  #4446 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RogueOne View Post
For the next 6 months... template posts in this thread should read....

"I've been told by someone involved.... that the bases will be INSERT BASES HERE: XXX XXX XXX"
No change over the last 7 years then.
As a plc all flybes major decisions had to be reported to the stock exchange. They were but a lot of the ignoramouslys who post on here did'nt bother. I tried time and time again to point thrm in the right direction but yo no avail
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 10:43
  #4447 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
Flybeís most profitable international routes

https://www.anna.aero/2020/10/23/fly...till-unserved/
That makes for interesting reading. As a BHX local I am amazed that Milan hasn't been snapped up. I remember BA on the route, often filling A319s and its right up there on the list.If a new Flybe does come about I would hope they would look at BHX as there is a lot of potential there. . Obviously accepting Covid as a fly in the ointment
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 13:49
  #4448 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, however the fundamental issue is that there are no paying passengers to prevent any "start-up" from getting into said debt in the first place. From a business perspective until an effective vaccine comes along quite frankly the opportunity in the airline is far from phenomenal; its truly woeful.

Perhaps in 5 years time once there are greener technologies, less flight-shaming and zoom fatigue truly sets in this will be better but until then if you haven't got a seat when the music stops: you're goosed.
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 14:10
  #4449 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
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The flight shaming that you're talking about is a North European political view. Which even in that small part of the world, only 50% of people subscribe.

I won't go into why I think it's a nonsense but needless to say it is. Aircraft manufacturers are rapidly working towards emission free technology. We have emission free technology in virtually all other areas yet we don't use it. Why? Because it's too expensive for the campaigners. Aviation doesn't effect the campaigners life, so that's what they pick on.....
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 14:45
  #4450 (permalink)  
Snr
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
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Originally Posted by willy wombat View Post
Snr - where would these 30 - 40 dash 8s operate exactly?
Apologies, I was meaning that 30-40 Q400 would've been the ideal number pre-Covid. A reduction of 40 airframes from what Flybe had at the beginning of 2020. Of course Flybe Mk2 (or any other start up) would be starting with a smaller number initially.
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 15:35
  #4451 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by MARK 101 View Post
As a BHX local I am amazed that Milan hasn't been snapped up. I remember BA on the route, often filling A319s and its right up there on the list.
I believe Maersk did BHX-MXP and BHX-LIN, but as a BA Franchise, although it's true they filled their BAC1-11s and B737-500s, I'm surprised RYR aren't interested as they have a base at MXP.
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 16:22
  #4452 (permalink)  
 
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BHX to Milan

Also at Malpensa are easy jet
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 16:25
  #4453 (permalink)  
 
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Milan

Originally Posted by D9009 View Post
I believe Maersk did BHX-MXP and BHX-LIN, but as a BA Franchise, although it's true they filled their BAC1-11s and B737-500s, I'm surprised RYR aren't interested as they have a base at MXP.
Ryanair must have been interested as BHX-MXP appeared in the 2019/2020 slot coordination report but as we know these are just intentions and plenty examples where routes have not transpired such as Loganair BHX -IOM which is in for winter and was for last summer but it has never been announced.

I couldn't see any notes with the anna-aero report explaining how the revenue and costs figures have been calculated which make it difficult to comment on with any authority. It would be interesting if they hold the individual route costs and not just apportioned figures from the Flybe accounts.

Pete
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 16:27
  #4454 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
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Milan was an E-Jet route, don't think Flybe Mk2 will be bringing any of them back... And I don't fancy operating two sector day on the Dash across the Alps to Italy, all be it I'm desperate to fly again!
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 18:04
  #4455 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly which routes will the new BEE operate ? Most of their old ones are now (or are going to be) operated by other airlines ? Will there be any left for BEE ?
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 22:23
  #4456 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LTNman View Post
Flybeís most profitable international routes

https://www.anna.aero/2020/10/23/fly...till-unserved/
You can take RDC Apex numbers with a pinch of salt. In the kingdom of the blind.....the top 4 most profitable aren't even on the list!
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 23:17
  #4457 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed. I always suspected that BHX EDI/GLA were in the top 10 but who knows?
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Old 24th Oct 2020, 23:27
  #4458 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by willy wombat View Post
Indeed. I always suspected that BHX EDI/GLA were in the top 10 but who knows?
Was only International routes looked at, not domestic.
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Old 25th Oct 2020, 08:40
  #4459 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
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Originally Posted by TartinTon View Post
You can take RDC Apex numbers with a pinch of salt. In the kingdom of the blind.....the top 4 most profitable aren't even on the list!
At last - wondered when somebody was going to raise an eyebrow at the data...
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Old 25th Oct 2020, 09:09
  #4460 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
At last - wondered when somebody was going to raise an eyebrow at the data...
I've raised eyebrows about data like this coming out of consultancies and been shot down by others for doing so, usually by other "consultants".
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