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Flybe-9

Old 4th Mar 2020, 07:22
  #3561 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6 View Post
Apart from the question of how to help Flybe without IAG and Easyjet complaining, the Govt has a much bigger problem to deal with right now
Assuming doctors / scientists are correct - the economy is likely to take a tumble later this year, which means less tax revenue for the Chancellor. There will undoubtedly be significant extra costs for HMG (eg around healthcare), meaning even less wiggle room on Budget Day.

There is a possibility maintaining public order will require paying police/army lots of extra cash. The NHS will seemingly be hiring lots of recently retired staff, all of whom will expect wages in return for work. Saving Flybe is insignificant in comparison.

If, as I expect, Flybe has seen a decline in forward bookings over the last 2 weeks, the owners will be aware how costly it can be to run an airline that flies fresh air around the UK
Maybe the Chancellor will find a magical money tree, but I would not be surprised if Flybe has chosen a bad time to be hoping for cash and ends up as collateral damage of the coronavirus episode

Flybe is vital to the UK economy, itís not just another airline , the government needs to act now , flybe going under would cause a big hit to the economy , Bookings are way down as a result of the needles panic , action is needed ASAP,

And we are not talking about vast sums here either ...
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 07:56
  #3562 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
Flybe is vital to the UK economy, itís not just another airline , the government needs to act now , flybe going under would cause a big hit to the economy , Bookings are way down as a result of the needles panic , action is needed ASAP,

And we are not talking about vast sums here either ...
If itís not vast sums of money, then may I suggest the owners assist from their very deep pockets instead of the ongoing begging bowl directed towards UK taxpayers!
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 08:19
  #3563 (permalink)  
 
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I beg to deference - But The Flybe Board and the Virgin Connect consortium all have been dithering and faffing around and shown no direction since last summer.
This has left the travelling punters with little or no confidence in booking tickets.
The route network was decimated.
There is nothing to date to blame anything for Flybe's perilous state other than failure of the Board, and the Consortium to direct to save the airline, bar going to HM Govt with a begging bowl which has incensed it's competitors.
Covid-19 has not been the culprit here for the low bookings until now.
All airlines are now seeing their bookings fall away.

Flybe needs a shed-load of cash to survive the next 3 months - It's not short change. It's vast - £100m's are required.

Is Flybe vital to UK connectivity and the Economy?
One would have thought so a while back, but the shear ineptitude of the Company has seen to it that the major heart surgery needed was overlooked and maybe now it is too late.

Once again my commiserations to the Staff and Crews who have faced so much uncertainty. The next month or so will be pivotal.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 08:38
  #3564 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by stewyb View Post
If itís not vast sums of money, then may I suggest the owners assist from their very deep pockets instead of the ongoing begging bowl directed towards UK taxpayers!


Itís in the UK and the taxpayers interest flybe does not fail , flybe is not a bucket and spade outfit itís vital to the UK .

Itís possible the owners simply have not got the funds needed at present , To me thatís the only explanation , I cannot see them just sitting back and letting the airline go over a cliff .

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Old 4th Mar 2020, 09:41
  #3565 (permalink)  
 
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With the current surplus capacity available across the EU - there aren't many routes that wouldn't be cherry-picked - remember Stobart / Eastern / Loganair / Blue Islands / Aurigny all operate 19-72 seat aircraft. I would be cautious saying that they are too important to fail - whilst I don't want anyone to lose their jobs if they were purely a domestic carrier flying only PSO routes it would be a different story... The £100+m APD bill can be kicked into the long grass for as long as you like - it still needs paying back - its a tax due and taxes don't get forgotten!
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:20
  #3566 (permalink)  
 
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It’s not about capacity so much as connectivity. One easyJet A320 can hoover up two Q400s worth of capacity but with no day return option for business, something flybe is very useful for. Hence regional connectivity will suffer for that. The current media driven hysteria on the Coronavirus isn’t going to help flybe, quite the contrary.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:23
  #3567 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
Flybe is vital to the UK economy, itís not just another airline , the government needs to act now , flybe going under would cause a big hit to the economy , Bookings are way down as a result of the needles panic , action is needed ASAP,

And we are not talking about vast sums here either ...
I appreciate you and the organisation are desperate for an injection of funding, I really do understand the situation. Again I or anyone else doesn't want to see the company collapse or see anyone out of work.

However remaining realistic as I'm now emotionally detached from this current situation. Flybe is NOT vital to the UK economy. It provides a well used service that could be replaced.

If and I emphasize if flybe were to collapse, the few vital routes would be operational again within the next IATA season by either of the following.

A) other operators would leap onto those profitable and viable routes.

B) Stobart (still a separate company) are still desperate to expand in the regional sector. What's to stop them during the administration process snapping up some Q400's and slots etc to expand and cover those routes? Jobs offered back to the crews to get the operation up and running again. Stobart are a lean and profitable company which would expand with the ex flybe profitable routes, aircraft and crews. No ex flybe debts or bad leases etc to hold them back.

I certainly wouldn't be hanging my hat on the belief that flybe is so important to the UK that HMG will pump hundreds of millions into it. Most other airlines will be soaring above like vultures waiting to take on those viable and profitable routes.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:28
  #3568 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
Itís possible the owners simply have not got the funds needed at present , To me thatís the only explanation , I cannot see them just sitting back and letting the airline go over a cliff .
There is another rational explanation
Suppose you own a business. You bought it recently for peanuts but have now realised it is much worse shape than previously thought. It has been making a loss in recent years, despite your competitors making healthy profits. It needs £100m right now to survive. It will probably need an extra £100m in about a month's time due to temporary decline in sales so as to pay business costs. That £200m will be spent on day-to-day expenses which you will never get back - eg salaries
You expect in 3 years time once the business is turned around, the company will make profits, maximum £10m per year in a good year, less in a bad year

Would you invest money in this company, knowing that you need 20 good years in a row just to make your money back, even longer if there are bad years or recessions ?
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:36
  #3569 (permalink)  
 
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On more operational matters - I see a 175 is operating LHR-NQY this morning, which is unusual

Looks like the NQY Q400 was a bit late up on it's first rotation (over 2hrs down), and the 175 positioned from BHX to operate the first westbound, with only about a 45 min delay.

Good to see BEE doing this kind of stuff to keep things "on the road" for their Customers, although no doubt some will say that this is the kind of action that just burns more cash.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:42
  #3570 (permalink)  
 
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Stobart Air is no longer a seperate company
It is wholely owned by Connect Airways on which Stobart group plc the former owners have a thirty per cent share.
This was part of Stpbart Groups contribution to the holfing company (Connect Airways).
In regards to assets including any aircraft owned by Flybe Ltd
They are assets owned by Flybe. and cannot be automatocally transferred. This means that Connect Airways would have to part with more cash to acquire them.
In other words Connect Airways are now in a mess.
If Connect Airways fails, Stobart Airways would probably pe put up for sale
Would Stobart group be prepared to buy it back having previously given it away as their share of Virgin Connect?
Answers on a postcard please



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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:43
  #3571 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wycombe View Post
On more operational matters - I see a 175 is operating LHR-NQY this morning, which is unusual

Looks like the NQY Q400 was a bit late up on it's first rotation (over 2hrs down), and the 175 positioned from BHX to operate the first westbound, with only about a 45 min delay.

Good to see BEE doing this kind of stuff to keep things "on the road" for their Customers, although no doubt some will say that this is the kind of action that just burns more cash.
Agreed it great to see. I suppose it's a business case of weighing up the cost of operating this against the penalty of paying EU261 costs. That could be more expensive than operating the E175 to rescue the situation.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:48
  #3572 (permalink)  
 
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I imagine the Heathrow penalty could outweigh the EU261 penalties for Flybe also. Heathrow works hard to protect it's OTP status and sanctions those who don't contribute positively.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 10:52
  #3573 (permalink)  
 
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Either way the potential liability currently on every Flybe sector is Ä19500 euros

EC261 is a hideous mechanism that has created ambulance chasers that follow FR24 and then take to social media with the flight number to try and get you to claim through them

Fairly disgusting practice IMHO
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 11:01
  #3574 (permalink)  
 
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fernlee where's your evidence to support the notion that Flybe is vital to the UK economy? If the government ploughs in +£100m then simple maths would dictate that Flybe would have to be contributing more than this to the economy to benefit bailing them out. Quite simply the business model is completely broken, it always has been and just like French & The cow, Connect have sat there and twiddled their thumbs and done nothing for nearly a year.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 12:14
  #3575 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Reversethrustset View Post
fernlee where's your evidence to support the notion that Flybe is vital to the UK economy? If the government ploughs in +£100m then simple maths would dictate that Flybe would have to be contributing more than this to the economy to benefit bailing them out. Quite simply the business model is completely broken, it always has been and just like French & The cow, Connect have sat there and twiddled their thumbs and done nothing for nearly a year.

I think the fact the chancellor saw the value of flybe to UK PLC and agreed without hesitation to assist with short term funding speaks volumes about the place flybe has in the UK economy

As said we are not just a bucket and spade outfit we provide essential services to the UK
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 12:16
  #3576 (permalink)  
 
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So does the NHS. Where is the extra funding for that??
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 12:23
  #3577 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
I think the fact the chancellor saw the value of flybe to UK PLC and agreed without hesitation to assist with short term funding speaks volumes about the place flybe has in the UK economy

As said we are not just a bucket and spade outfit we provide essential services to the UK
As fond as I am of flybe, it is absolutely NOT essential to UK plc, fact!

The NHS, police, fire service coupled with the armed services etc. Now they are essential to the UK.

Flybe is not the same as those vital services. Please stop hanging your hat on this silly idea.

The only reason why the ex chancellor contemplated the idea of loaning money to flybe was due to the Tories commitment to regional connectivity in the recent elections. It is not because flybe is essential. It was just convenient to their manifesto pledge. This idea has received a huge backlash.

Last edited by Set 1013; 4th Mar 2020 at 12:34.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 12:29
  #3578 (permalink)  
 
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Essential? I'm not so sure.

However, if the current Gov can see to reinvest in rail franchises and take them under ownership... then there may be argument that they could look to do the same with this. I mean hey, they made an absolute fortune taking on Northern Rock...

But I dont think this needs to turn in to a political debate. What will be, will be and I wouldn't hold out for the best outcome at the moment.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 12:53
  #3579 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
I think the fact the chancellor saw the value of flybe to UK PLC and agreed without hesitation to assist with short term funding speaks volumes about the place flybe has in the UK economy

As said we are not just a bucket and spade outfit we provide essential services to the UK
No, what the chancellor said was is that it connects the regions and it's a viable business (how they came up with that in 3 days when it takes the average CEO 3 months to completely assess a business is anyone's guess), the chancellor didn't say it's vital to the UK economy, I think this notion is a complete fabrication by yourself.
Not just a bucket and spade outfit? Flybe is NOT a bucket and spade outfit.
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Old 4th Mar 2020, 13:12
  #3580 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fernlee View Post
I think the fact the chancellor saw the value of flybe to UK PLC and agreed without hesitation to assist with short term funding speaks volumes about the place flybe has in the UK economy
To note - The chancellor offered a honeymoon on the APD due and prevented HMRC from placing the company in compulsory liquidation for default of the debt due - HMG have not spent a penny or extended a loan - they have done what HMRC does with any company but due to the size of the debt, the HMRC head honcho wanted it on the chancellors shoulders and not theirs! All the time the company is still trading and I hope it does for many years to come but not with a govt bailout and rightfully with the shareholder's money who only have one focus and that is to turn a distressed asset into a cash cow..... Guess what - not gonna happen unless they the shareholders who bought the brand extend a credit line of over £250 million without relying on HMG to act as guarantor or provide any assurances - so all the time you are still flying currently you are still adding to the APD debt that will need to be repaid - it will not vanish into thin air unless the company does!

You only have to read this https://www.ft.com/content/ed86c7be-...a-c4b328d9061c and look at the accounts here https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/c...filing-history to see that this was meant to be a good idea on how to make a quick buck....by only exposing a couple of million for a brand that could with a low-cost govt backed loan turn around into a $billion USD sale down the line

Then along came an unknown virus that wiped billions off of the stock markets and made the travelling public nervous to get on a plane.
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