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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 13:26
  #5981 (permalink)  
 
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Dublin may have its problems but it is miles ahead over Manchester in terms of passenger experience.
Only your opinion as a regular MAN moaner. bayer328 and All Names Taken would seem to disagree with you about DUB.

Following the slump after 2006, MAN took longer than some airports to recover, so I can understand some reticence in committing to infrastructure investment too soon. However, from an outsider perspective it could be thought that action is maybe a couple of years late and I can understand why some feel the 10 year time frame for the TP is too long.

That said, my own experiences at MAN in recent years have not been at all bad.
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 14:51
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I picked a couple of relatives up yesterday AM from T1, said relatives landed just before 9 on the Air Transat from Toronto, we were on the M56 by 0935, eating a bacon sarnie in Birmingham by 1045, can't argue with that.

Parking spaces in that multi story are a bit tight though, do you all drive Smart cars up there?
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 16:07
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Parking spaces in that multi story are a bit tight though, do you all drive Smart cars up there?
it's quite old, designed before cars got super-sized and 4 x 4's stuck to mud and fields
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 18:02
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I have flown through some very nice airports in Europe, Zurich, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, I won't mention CDG, apart from never again. Manchester, has all the potential after the remodel is completed to be a truly magnificent airport with state of the art facilities. I for one can live with the present infrastructure knowing that change is on the horizon.
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 18:18
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A great shame that Mr A Tis has left the building. A true professional who usually had his 'finger on the pulse'.
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 19:39
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As one of an apparent number of frequent critics of the conduct of this thread, can I ask whether anyone would support an alternative, which is that the socio-economic development stuff is spun off into a separate "Manchester - Long Term Development" thread and the remaining stuff (which I and, I suspect, many others tune in to read) about shorter term developments of airlines and routes is in a "Manchester - Ops & Airlines" thread. It would seem to me a logical compromise, so as to provide a forum for those wishing to indulge their passion for the former.
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 20:16
  #5987 (permalink)  
 
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May US Stats

Now for something completely different.

Well maybe not but food for thought?

I posted some Middle Eastern stats on the Newcastle thread which were decidedly average and there are more going in the other direction.

Source: CAA Provisional stats with 2015 in brackets

MAN-ATL.........14063 (13607) +3%
MAN-ORD.........7390 (9882) -25%
MAN-JFK.........29166 (19440) +50%
MAN-EWR.........7326 (8870) -17%
MAN-PHL..........8884 (9276) -4%
MAN-IAD..........5117 (6133) -17%
  • Are these figures correct as they incredibly low on some routes?
  • Is this a case of too much too soon or just a bedding in period after the Thomas Cook expansion?
  • Something more sinister with Thomas Cook destroying legacy carriers loads?

I haven't worked out the load factors out as libhomeradar at times can be patchy on some routes and I only have 2 months history on FR24. I seemed to have traced most Chicago frequencies which is a worry, as it equates to 119 per flight and on a 763.

The PHL reduction has been well documented in the past and is this route now endanger of getting the 757 treatment? To be fair a 757 wouldn't have been filled most days on these figures and although May is not high-season but still "summer" and it was pre-Brexit.

There was a net increase of around 20000 to the US from Manchester in May, which is obviously a positive but I don't believe that tells the whole story.

The only compare I have is the New York area flights from BHX, which weren't great either but from what I was told I have little to doubt the figures returned. The Middle Eastern figures are more suspect in my opinion but I suppose we will have to wait for the "actuals".

Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 22nd Aug 2016 at 20:17. Reason: spelling
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Old 22nd Aug 2016, 20:20
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"As one of an apparent number of frequent critics of the conduct of this thread, can I ask whether anyone would support an alternative"

I would support us stopping that debate entirely.

It is unrealistic to expect it to lead to an agreement, it has nothing to do with the airport, and everyone quitting right now would greatly improve the signal to noise ratio.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 00:48
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MAN-ATL.........14063 (13607) +3%
MAN-ORD.........7390 (9882) -25%
MAN-JFK.........29166 (19440) +50%
MAN-EWR.........7326 (8870) -17%
MAN-PHL..........8884 (9276) -4%
MAN-IAD..........5117 (6133) -17%
Are these figures correct as they incredibly low on some routes?
Is this a case of too much too soon or just a bedding in period after the Thomas Cook expansion?
Something more sinister with Thomas Cook destroying legacy carriers loads?
As early as April/May this year certain "in the know" posters were reporting poor loads on some of the US Big 3 flights at MAN. Don't want to sound ungrateful, but for years now the USB3 have offered regional UK markets sky high fares and fairly lousy service - especially at the back of the bus - on their direct services from the UK regions. The reason they could get away with this for so long is there really wasn't much competition, with the only alternatives being via LHR or another Euro hub.

Enter Virgin, and now Thomas Cook, both offering something different, and both with strong brands in the UK regions, and I suspect UK originating Y-class passengers may have been voting with their feet this summer ? With SQ about to launch MAN-IAH the gap in service levels with the USB3 on MAN-USA routes will become even more obvious for all to see.

In the case of MAN-ORD, as a poster on another forum noted it was only 10 years ago in May 2006 when almost 22,000 passengers flew the route. That was when BMI and AA were both competing. Once BMI pulled out and AA decided to substitute the 757 (an aircraft which lacks the range to fly MAN-ORD at certain times of the year) and then go seasonal, the writing was on the wall. The route hasn't been helped either by AA's appalling reliability - even the brief 787 operation this summer was so poor it eventually had to be reverted back to a 767. Other factors may of course be involved, such as competing services via other US hubs, but if ever there was an airline case study on how to self-destruct a route it would have to be MAN-ORD !

2017 will be an interesting year, with the pound now worth around 20% less, we may well see a decrease in UK originating holiday traffic to the USA and elsewhere which could be bad news for airlines like TCX and Virgin in the regions. By the time Brexit happened many holiday makers had already have booked and paid for this year's holidays. When uncertain times come around, people tend to be a little more cautious with their cash especially when planning a long way ahead.

On the flip side the lower pound favours inbound tourism from the USA, China and elsewhere, and American citizen travellers do seem more willing to endure the service on board their own airlines for whatever reason. However inbound tourism (from the USA especially) still tends to be somewhat focused on London and Edinburgh and not much else.

This year airlines everywhere have been scrambling to launch capacity (witness Vueling, Jet2, and Norwegian's increased use of third party charter airlines). However for me a number of factors are pointing towards 2017 being a year of consolidation for the industry. The MEB3 loads - if reports from various sources are correct - have not been as stellar as usual. Fuel prices are heading north again. Some large airlines like CX, IAG, LH and EZY are announcing or forecasting sharply lower profits. Delta is cutting UK capacity by 6% this winter. UA has already announced the demise of EWR-NCL for next summer, and EWR-BFS only continues to survive on UK Government hand outs.

Shortage of capacity could well be the least of problems for a number of airlines next year. When the tide goes out, we find out who's been swimming naked ! I really hope I am proved wrong.

Last edited by Logohu; 23rd Aug 2016 at 01:05.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 04:36
  #5990 (permalink)  
 
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Further to my previous post, I see AA54 is back on the 787 most dates starting from today through until 07th October. Let's hope the operational issues which dogged their earlier attempt have been ironed out !
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 08:18
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Logohu, I won't copy all your earlier post 6017 but you offer some excellent points. It makes for sombre but in my view realistic reading. Just to add one or two comments about the UK-US market.

It was reported elsewhere that it wasn't just MAN that was seeing a fall on US routes in the Spring and the CAA provisional stats tend to confirm that.

Routes from LHR where pax numbers fell compared to May'15 were BOS, JFK, EWR, PHL, LAX, SFO IAH & DEN with decreases ranging from 2% to 16% (BOS). There were increases on some US routes however.

BHX saw a slight reduction to New York overall in May with AA gaining at the expense of UA.
It's interesting though that this year UA carried more pax on EWR from BHX than MAN, the reverse of the previous 2 years when MAN's monthly figure exceeded BHX by 500-600 pax.

I'm sure you are right about the impact of TCX, and UA at MAN will probably also have been affected by competition from DL to NY, especially as UA still operate with a narrow body a/c.

Olton Pete has also highlighted the poor ORD and PHL figures so there's little to add.

A couple of more optimistic comments: - If one takes the previous US exchange rate as $1.5 = £1, then it hasn't yet fallen 20% fortunately, more like 13%. Still bad enough for UK holiday makers and I must say if we hadn't booked a Florida holiday earlier in the year for this winter, we might have been looking for a cheaper alternative!

Now I know some feel that seat plans are not reliable and shouldn't be commented on but I still believe that what they show say 30 minutes before departure is a pretty good reflection of loads, even though we don't know specifics about free upgrades, airline staff on board etc. On that basis, I would suggest that loads from MAN in the last few weeks on the USB3, as we would hope and expect at this time of year, have been much improved. Some flights looked to be totally full and others with just a hand full of business class and the odd economy seat available. This despite some high fares and with TCX flying to MIA, LAX, BOS and JFK (as well as LAS and MCO).

No doubt the CAA stats will eventually give us a clearer picture for the summer.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 10:46
  #5992 (permalink)  
 
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from OltonPete. There was a net increase of around 20000 to the US from Manchester in May, which is obviously a positive but I don't believe that tells the whole story.
Looking at the CAA stats, JFK with an increase of 50% was about an extra 9,700 pax. However, I'm not sure how that matched with the increase in capacity.

Other increases were Orlando (net of a decrease on Sanford charters) of some 7,200 pax, while the new routes to LAX & BOS (the latter only started at the end of May) produced 4,500 pax. There were also increases on LAS & MIA.

It is therefore quite a complex and mixed picture. With SFO and BOS seasonal due to be added in s2017 by VS, and a final decision awaited on DL to DTW, it will indeed be interesting to see what the final schedules to the US look like for next year and how it all pans out.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 11:09
  #5993 (permalink)  
 
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And just to throw something different into the mix instead of this tedious MAN vs LPL vs DUB thread, I noticed this pop up on Facebook the other day. Interesting to note these ridiculous fares are only available from LHR.

MAN has been performing strongly for a while now, perhaps this LHR only sale proves that?

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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 13:31
  #5994 (permalink)  
 
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Those prices exclude taxes and charges. Still £350 return to DXB is a steal.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 13:51
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Same price from Manchester to Singapore so guessing same throughout. Bit naughty 'hiding' the £150 tax under "*Terms and conditions apply" if advertising to the UK market.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 13:57
  #5996 (permalink)  
 
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I thought these days advertised prices had to include taxes and surcharges

Hey ho
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 14:05
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On a slightly related note, does anyone know when FR release their S17 schedule?
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 14:44
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Just got this from Flybe.

Don't recall seeing that before.

CHILL OUT!

Introducing our new winter route from Manchester to Innsbruck, Austria’s ski capital!

Famous for its urban cool – as well as its proximity to dozens of perfect pistes – you can hit Innsbruck’s cafés and cultural scene when it’s time to come down from the slopes.

Our weekly flights are now on sale from £44.99 one way. For travel from 18 December to 19 March, 2017.

Start planning your wonderful winter escape today!
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 16:34
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Never before September.

Next month if RYR are expanding majorly, if not it could be near December.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 20:32
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Hearing Etihad may be sending the A380 on tomorrow's EY21/22
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