MAN-ATL.........14063 (13607) +3%
MAN-ORD.........7390 (9882) -25%
MAN-JFK.........29166 (19440) +50%
MAN-EWR.........7326 (8870) -17%
MAN-PHL..........8884 (9276) -4%
MAN-IAD..........5117 (6133) -17%
Are these figures correct as they incredibly low on some routes?
Is this a case of too much too soon or just a bedding in period after the Thomas Cook expansion?
Something more sinister with Thomas Cook destroying legacy carriers loads?
As early as April/May this year certain "in the know" posters were reporting poor loads on some of the US Big 3 flights at MAN. Don't want to sound ungrateful, but for years now the USB3 have offered regional UK markets sky high fares and fairly lousy service - especially at the back of the bus - on their direct services from the UK regions. The reason they could get away with this for so long is there really wasn't much competition, with the only alternatives being via LHR or another Euro hub.
Enter Virgin, and now Thomas Cook, both offering something different, and both with strong brands in the UK regions, and I suspect UK originating Y-class passengers may have been voting with their feet this summer ? With SQ about to launch MAN-IAH the gap in service levels with the USB3 on MAN-USA routes will become even more obvious for all to see.
In the case of MAN-ORD, as a poster on another forum noted it was only 10 years ago in May 2006 when almost 22,000 passengers flew the route. That was when BMI and AA were both competing. Once BMI pulled out and AA decided to substitute the 757 (an aircraft which lacks the range to fly MAN-ORD at certain times of the year) and then go seasonal, the writing was on the wall. The route hasn't been helped either by AA's appalling reliability - even the brief 787 operation this summer was so poor it eventually had to be reverted back to a 767. Other factors may of course be involved, such as competing services via other US hubs, but if ever there was an airline case study on how to self-destruct a route it would have to be MAN-ORD !
2017 will be an interesting year, with the pound now worth around 20% less, we may well see a decrease in UK originating holiday traffic to the USA and elsewhere which could be bad news for airlines like TCX and Virgin in the regions. By the time Brexit happened many holiday makers had already have booked and paid for this year's holidays. When uncertain times come around, people tend to be a little more cautious with their cash especially when planning a long way ahead.
On the flip side the lower pound favours inbound tourism from the USA, China and elsewhere, and American citizen travellers do seem more willing to endure the service on board their own airlines for whatever reason. However inbound tourism (from the USA especially) still tends to be somewhat focused on London and Edinburgh and not much else.
This year airlines everywhere have been scrambling to launch capacity (witness Vueling, Jet2, and Norwegian's increased use of third party charter airlines). However for me a number of factors are pointing towards 2017 being a year of consolidation for the industry. The MEB3 loads - if reports from various sources are correct - have not been as stellar as usual. Fuel prices are heading north again. Some large airlines like CX, IAG, LH and EZY are announcing or forecasting sharply lower profits. Delta is cutting UK capacity by 6% this winter. UA has already announced the demise of EWR-NCL for next summer, and EWR-BFS only continues to survive on UK Government hand outs.
Shortage of capacity could well be the least of problems for a number of airlines next year. When the tide goes out, we find out who's been swimming naked ! I really hope I am proved wrong.