SOUTHEND 5
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Suffolk, Diss, UK
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Believe this is in need of been posted on here again, hope Cyrano doesn't mind but this is in response to my question in regards to an airline operating a route that was dropped by larger aircraft.
So hope this explains why Edinburgh or Belfast hasn't been taken up at southend
It doesn't really work like that, Nick. There's this thing called revenue management.
So for example on the Q400, maybe (I'm making up these numbers) the first 20 seats were sold at £40 one-way, the next 20 at £60, the next 20 at £80 and so on. If there were 30 passengers a flight on average, the majority of them would in all probability have paid the lower fares.
On a 31-seater D328, things will be different, of course because the aircraft is smaller but also because the cost per seat is higher, so the average fare needs to be higher. So maybe there'll only be 5 seats at £40, then 5 at £60, then 10 at £80. The average fare across 30 passengers on a 31-seater aircraft will be a lot more than the average fare across 30 passengers on a 78-seater. And unless airline passengers are insensitive to price a higher average price means lower average demand.
In other words, if you had an average of 30 passengers a flight on a 78-seater and you switch to a 31 seater, you won't have an average of 30 passengers, because the fares on offer will be higher so the demand will be lower.
(And even more basically, even if the fares were magically the same, you still wouldn't have an average of 30 passengers. That figure is an average across different passenger loads, for example if five flights carried 10, 30, 25, 50, and 35 passengers the average is 30. If the highest possible number of passengers in a flight is 31 rather than 78, your average is going to be a lot smaller.)
And finally: you make the entirely wrong assumption that a full or nearly-full flight means a profitable flight.
So for example on the Q400, maybe (I'm making up these numbers) the first 20 seats were sold at £40 one-way, the next 20 at £60, the next 20 at £80 and so on. If there were 30 passengers a flight on average, the majority of them would in all probability have paid the lower fares.
On a 31-seater D328, things will be different, of course because the aircraft is smaller but also because the cost per seat is higher, so the average fare needs to be higher. So maybe there'll only be 5 seats at £40, then 5 at £60, then 10 at £80. The average fare across 30 passengers on a 31-seater aircraft will be a lot more than the average fare across 30 passengers on a 78-seater. And unless airline passengers are insensitive to price a higher average price means lower average demand.
In other words, if you had an average of 30 passengers a flight on a 78-seater and you switch to a 31 seater, you won't have an average of 30 passengers, because the fares on offer will be higher so the demand will be lower.
(And even more basically, even if the fares were magically the same, you still wouldn't have an average of 30 passengers. That figure is an average across different passenger loads, for example if five flights carried 10, 30, 25, 50, and 35 passengers the average is 30. If the highest possible number of passengers in a flight is 31 rather than 78, your average is going to be a lot smaller.)
And finally: you make the entirely wrong assumption that a full or nearly-full flight means a profitable flight.
A320
It seems to be confirmed that SEN will become a 1 x A320, 2 x A319 base for the winter period. Last winter an A320 was positioned to SEN as required to operate the 2 x weekly TFS flights; until March when an A320 became resident. This will offer some useful capacity increases across the SEN route network for the whole 2014/2015 winter period.
Empty space
The terminal expansion has been open for a while - flew in and out this weekend, admittedly on lightly loaded ATR 72s at times when the terminal was fairly quiet. I kept thinking that on the upper floor after security, the ground floor near the departure gates, and in the baggage claim area, there seem to be large amounts of floorspace that are either unused or significantly underused.
I know that people reading this post will be more interested, when at an airport, in flying than shopping, but retail units can contribute to an airport's profitability and thus future long term prospects, e.g. capacity to minimise charges to airlines with other income source like retail units income, car parking, etc, particularly at a non-hub airport with modest passenger numbers like Southend.
Please don't think however that I'm a shopping freak - I loathe what's happened to the post-security area at Stansted with a compulsory lengthy walk through the duty free shop, but I do want Southend where possible to be commercially succesful and robust to the fleeting whims of airlines.
Is there any plan to try to flog some more square feet in the terminal to retailers ? For the time being at least, seems like a bit of wasted commercial opportunity.
I know that people reading this post will be more interested, when at an airport, in flying than shopping, but retail units can contribute to an airport's profitability and thus future long term prospects, e.g. capacity to minimise charges to airlines with other income source like retail units income, car parking, etc, particularly at a non-hub airport with modest passenger numbers like Southend.
Please don't think however that I'm a shopping freak - I loathe what's happened to the post-security area at Stansted with a compulsory lengthy walk through the duty free shop, but I do want Southend where possible to be commercially succesful and robust to the fleeting whims of airlines.
Is there any plan to try to flog some more square feet in the terminal to retailers ? For the time being at least, seems like a bit of wasted commercial opportunity.
CAA Provisional August Figures
Total pax during August totalled 120,832, a 2% increase on last year.
The new Stobart Air routes carried:
ANR ...... 1,392 ...... 29% load factor
CFR ...... 2,092 ...... 58%
RNS ...... 3,142 ...... 62%
FMO ...... 2,042 ...... 46%
GRQ ...... 2,065 ...... 55%
MST ...... 927 ...... 25%
It will be interesting to see how these routes perform outside the main tourist season when, presumably, those with strong business travel potential may benefit.
The new Stobart Air routes carried:
ANR ...... 1,392 ...... 29% load factor
CFR ...... 2,092 ...... 58%
RNS ...... 3,142 ...... 62%
FMO ...... 2,042 ...... 46%
GRQ ...... 2,065 ...... 55%
MST ...... 927 ...... 25%
It will be interesting to see how these routes perform outside the main tourist season when, presumably, those with strong business travel potential may benefit.
Four out of the six routes started in June/July look as if they have potential and some are performing better than many predicted. I personally doubt that these early figures have much bearing on the Stobart Group share price.
Join Date: Jun 2009
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Stobart share price
Stobart Group is a group of diverse operating companies of which the airport is just one part. On its own the performance of the airport cannot adversely affect the share price to the extent seen recently.
Yes, the inability to begin to repay the huge investment in the airport will have a cumulative effect on the downwards pressure on the share price but the overwhelming factor is the inability of the group as a whole to provide dividends to shareholders out of trading profit. Most of the dividend is being paid for out of the proceeds of the disposals of assets.
Another factor seems to be the market's concern regarding over-valuation of real estate (including the airports) on the group's balance sheet.
Contributing factors are statements by the chairman telling investors that a brand new airport needs to cut costs when most investors assumed a brand new airport would be managed from day one on a lean cost model.
It's not easy running an airport!
Yes, the inability to begin to repay the huge investment in the airport will have a cumulative effect on the downwards pressure on the share price but the overwhelming factor is the inability of the group as a whole to provide dividends to shareholders out of trading profit. Most of the dividend is being paid for out of the proceeds of the disposals of assets.
Another factor seems to be the market's concern regarding over-valuation of real estate (including the airports) on the group's balance sheet.
Contributing factors are statements by the chairman telling investors that a brand new airport needs to cut costs when most investors assumed a brand new airport would be managed from day one on a lean cost model.
It's not easy running an airport!
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Selling a controlling interest in their core business (logistics) might have recouped their investment in SEN and left them debt free but it smacks of all eggs in one (aviation) basket.
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It's not easy running an airport!
Airports and airlines are not a core part of the Stobart business model. I expect the airport will be sold in the next 5 years to reduce debt. As for the airline who knows? It will either be sold or shut down but I just can't see Stobart keeping it long term as profits would always be modest while losses could be large.
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I flew in this evening on a very lightly loaded and delayed flight from Antwerp, which to give credit where it's due operated when it would have been easy to cancel.
There were just 9 of us, and 12 on the arrival from SEN.
My outbound flight on Monday afternoon had 16 on board, so not much better.
I noticed Tuesday afternoon's flights were cancelled, which I'm certain were on sale when I booked just three weeks back.
8/16 outbound mon, 4/12 outbound today and 1/8 inbound today were business pax.
All but three on my flights were British
There were just 9 of us, and 12 on the arrival from SEN.
My outbound flight on Monday afternoon had 16 on board, so not much better.
I noticed Tuesday afternoon's flights were cancelled, which I'm certain were on sale when I booked just three weeks back.
8/16 outbound mon, 4/12 outbound today and 1/8 inbound today were business pax.
All but three on my flights were British
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Yes, the Antwerp and Maastricht routes don't seem to be attracting passengers at the moment, maybe they never will, but I would think they need to be given a few months to see if they can succeed in attracting business traffic. The other four Stobart routes look more viable though. I would have thought that services to Edinburgh and Belfast would be attractive - easyJet had proved a strong demand for both destinations (just not strong enough to fill an A319).
Join Date: Aug 2011
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I am surprised that EDI and BHD weren't taken up by BE/STK. Would have made more sense than some of the European routes given that there was demand for the routes created by U2.
BE maybe considering these routes with their own metal given their bases at EDI and BHD?
BE maybe considering these routes with their own metal given their bases at EDI and BHD?
Join Date: May 2006
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Again just because the numbers easyjet has suggested they would happily fill an ATR or dash it doesn't really work like that.
With Ryanair (offering fares as little as £20) and easyjet operating STN - EDI with a total of 6 flights a day from October then you have LCY which has BA citiflyer flying loads of sectors each day plus from October Flybe themselves will start operating the LCY - EDI.
So if you really that a good look at it would SEN - EDI be viable at this present time, I would certainly say a big No!
In fact in that part of the world flights to EDI are starting to look over saturated!
Please don't think I'm being rude but you have to look at all the factors why they haven't done this particular route from SEN
With Ryanair (offering fares as little as £20) and easyjet operating STN - EDI with a total of 6 flights a day from October then you have LCY which has BA citiflyer flying loads of sectors each day plus from October Flybe themselves will start operating the LCY - EDI.
So if you really that a good look at it would SEN - EDI be viable at this present time, I would certainly say a big No!
In fact in that part of the world flights to EDI are starting to look over saturated!
Please don't think I'm being rude but you have to look at all the factors why they haven't done this particular route from SEN
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SEN/ANR
Yes, the Antwerp and Maastricht routes don't seem to be attracting passengers at the moment, maybe they never will, but I would think they need to be given a few months to see if they can succeed in attracting business traffic.
8/16 outbound mon, 4/12 outbound today and 1/8 inbound today were business pax.
Jota
fjencl
Jota have completed the CAA route proving process so it seems just a matter of days before the paperwork is issued for the addition of the type to the AOC and the Type A Operating Licence is forthcoming.
Jota have completed the CAA route proving process so it seems just a matter of days before the paperwork is issued for the addition of the type to the AOC and the Type A Operating Licence is forthcoming.
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A bit early to be thinking about replacement routes, but maybe WAT, SCN, LGG or DLE could work if others fail. ANR was always going to be interesting with the competition of WX to LCY, but MAA does surprise me. I think domestic routes are probably out of the question.
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I do wonder if the logic for ANR was based on industry expectation that WX would fold, which as yet has not occurred. Without that happening I cannot see that the route has a future and even if it did would enough pax migrate to SEN? WX can offer day returns from both ends and greater frequency. BE only has day returns from ANR, and my (limited experience) yesterday revealed most of the pax on both evening departures from ANR last night (WX and BE) were British.
I also think part of the problem is lack of awareness of the joys of Antwerp - a great place to visit but I heard very few English voices while walking around.
As for the other routes, I can comment on Groningen flight on Monday which went shortly before mine - around 40 travelled which isn't bad but all seemed to be leisure so possibly yield could be an issue. I would say all were Dutch.
I saw the evening Rennes had 54 booked which sounds pretty good
I also think part of the problem is lack of awareness of the joys of Antwerp - a great place to visit but I heard very few English voices while walking around.
As for the other routes, I can comment on Groningen flight on Monday which went shortly before mine - around 40 travelled which isn't bad but all seemed to be leisure so possibly yield could be an issue. I would say all were Dutch.
I saw the evening Rennes had 54 booked which sounds pretty good