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Old 18th May 2013, 09:53
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April

The April figures would have come as no surprise to BHX and anything less than 5% down would have been near on impossible due the staggering loss of capacity.

Clearly the timing of Easter did not help but that is only part of story and as for the other part only only really guess work from me but it revolved around Monarch's Midlands strategy for April.

Monarch of course added an aircraft at EMA for April compared to 2012 but slashed BHX services beyond the level of 2012 even taking into account what BMI Baby operated last year.

Some examples of this are the routes to Malaga, Alicante and Faro.

All were daily in April 2012 plus 6 BMI Baby's to AGP and ALC and Faro 3.

2013 - AGP 4 a week, ALC 5 and Faro 3 -yes a combined 10 FAO to 3.

All three routes also operated at EMA in April 2013 where they were up against FR and Jet2 on all or most. Also with the expanded Jet2 and FR operation it left EMA a pretty impressive 4% down.

Even taking into account that tradtionally EMA has a fine record of attracting "bucket and spade" pax, the figures below are staggering considering the overall passenger difference generally between the two airports: -

EMA - Malaga 26217 +42% compared to BHX 15591 - 37%
EMA - Alicante 27709 + 21% compared to BHX 20232 -23%
EMA - Faro 18863 +18% compared to BHX 8649 -48%

If I was EMA I would be making hay with these figures. EMA had more pax on every head-to-head route to Spain except the Canaries with Palma the highlight at 16742 to BHX's pathetic 5712 - However Monarch did'nt operate from either but they went from 4 a week in 2012 at BHX to nil.

Did Monarch choose to cut BHX to support EMA against FR & Jet2? Well Monarch denied it when I e-mailed them but of course some would say they had little choice as the base was new and they had to operate some flights.

One explantion for the ZB BHX capacity cut was lack of aircraft due late deliveries - absolute rubbish I'm afraid. Look at the utilistion of the BHX aircraft during April and most days two of the four based aircraft did only one flight a day and on Wednesday not even that.

All in in my opinion the reason was a mix of early Easter and Monarch not taking for the BMI Baby slack whereas airlines did at EMA - to a certain extent.

Pete
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Old 18th May 2013, 10:13
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OP a briliant comparison with well supported figures. Seems as Monarch aren't all they made out to be diluting routes between 2 airports. I wonder what management would make of these figures? Perhaps they should go after Norwegian who seem to be expanding heavily with their eyes on UK airports. I'm surprised Easy haven't expanded in to BHX now they have established themselves on BFS/GVA.
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Old 18th May 2013, 10:52
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I'm surprised Easy haven't expanded in to BHX now they have established themselves on BFS/GVA.
Obviously it's the Belfast base that will get the pat on the back for the success of the BHX route rather seeing any potential from Brum .
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Old 18th May 2013, 11:11
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Remember Ryanair starts it's summer schedules in late March and that meant Ryanair more than doubled in size overnight at East Midlands. Monarch, Thomson etc. start on the 1st May so that hugely disadvantages Birmingham for April figures since it has a much smaller Ryanair presence and hasn't really expanded on last summer like East Midlands has.

FlyBe also have bought an increase to East Midlands flying the Belfast, Edinburgh and Glasgow routes up to 4x a day and now base an aircraft there. 4 Dash-8's is slightly up to compared to the once or twice daily flights BmiBaby operated with a 737-300/500. Perhaps FlyBe has seen a decrease in the number of passengers flying these routes from Birmingham as a result.

East Midlands will certainly be up on last year and probably will be every month this year, perhaps significant growth in June, July and August since BmiBaby had cancelled some routes (including Belfast, Edinburgh and Glasgow) by then and was no expansion by Ryanair, Monarch, Jet2 or FlyBe at that stage. Growth will probably continue into 2014 with an extra Jet2 aircraft and a slight increase with Thomson. It all depends whether FlyBe and more so Ryanair deliver at least the amount they have in 2013. So yes, Birmingham has got some tough competition with LCC's at East Midlands but there's certainly no major cuts or lots of lost passengers to East Midlands.

Now Monarch has started its summer schedule, the May figures at Birmingham won't be nearly as bad. There's certainly no need to go e-mailing Monarch about cuts when they will be expanding to 9 based aircraft (5 A321 and 4 A320 I beleive) this summer, compared to 2 at East Midlands!
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Old 18th May 2013, 11:36
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Monarch

crewmeal

I would say in Monarch's defense, I believe traditionally yields can be poor on some routes in the post Easter period until May.

Next year Easter is almost in May so not so much of a problem.

However even if they thought there was too much capacity from the Midlands to Spain, it does not explain why some of the other routes did not operate (Nice, Dalaman etc) at low frequency. Also Almeria has traditionally operated at BHX in April and not a sniff.

getonittt

The Belfast figures are not brilliant compared to easy's overall load factor (65% in April) and fares in the mornings are still generally low but I would describe it as promising and of course easyjet as you would expect quickly identified the lack of seats on a Sunday and some evening services by increasing capacity (will be in the case of Thu & Fri).

I have to say the rumour mill is awash at the moment even with an airline that apparently has no interest in BHX but I suppose some enquiries are just that enquiries and nothing comes of it.

FRatSTN

Flybe. BHX - EDI and GLA was up in April, which was a nice surprise but BHD took a major hit but that is to do with easyjet more than EMA I would have thought.

The reason I e-mailed Monarch was from frustration as yet another month of friends etc having to depart from airports miles away to MED destinations due to lack of capacity at BHX where in the past and future it is generally fine.

Okay is was only one month and in general Monarch at BHX has done well other than the the failed MXP & MUC routes but the April schedule was so off the wall I thought it worthwhile asking the question and of course Monarch did have the decency to reply which was very impressive.


Pete
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Old 19th May 2013, 06:41
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Couldn't get flights to AGP in April

I am one of these missing customers from BHX which I prefer to travel from.
I had three return flights to Malaga in April but had to make 2 from EMA and one from Luton due to unavailable flights from BHX. Didn't Ryanair run daily to Malaga in April 2012 ?
Kehoe for god sake get on this and if Ryanair won't increase and Easyjet won't come then you need to be outside Norwegians office every day.
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Old 19th May 2013, 09:45
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Ryanair

clivegore

The example you give is exactly what I have heard although you will see when I post the April stats later that most of the these BHX med routes did have between 10-15% empty seats averaging over the month (although those empty seats are not always at the right time) but these were sky high prices compared to other airlines at other airports. I suppose that is just supply and demand but it is frustrating.

To be fair to Ryanair they have operated a good 90% of their summer schedule from day one and Malaga was daily, Alicante in fact was up on 2012 at 9 weekly but Palma remained 5 and Faro 3. I think overall Ryanair have increased their BHX flights this summer but rather than shouting from the rooftops they have been rather quiet about it - not very Ryanair like but I suppose that is due to the base has stayed at 4 but come August with the away based flying it is as good as six based if you count the Dublin flights.

I don't particularly want to knock Monarch, as I am sure they have industry experts running their yield-management but it was such a drastic change on 2012 and not in line what was happening at some other airports but as FRatSTN stated it changed in May with what was on offer.

Pete
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Old 19th May 2013, 11:53
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April route analysis - schedule International

Sources: -

Monthly passenger figure: CAA (2012 in brackets) - a couple destinations are missing as the data is suspect (Sharm & Chambery)
Average pax per flight: BHX Blog and Libhomeradar
Load factor: Estimates based on planespotters.net and airline websites (2012 in brackets)

I went into the archive to find last years post to add the load factor in brackets to compare each year. Obviously it is not like for like as Easter was fully contained within April in 2012 rather than just 1-2 weeks in 2013 (school hols ended around the 14/15). Also of course BMI Baby had four based aircraft of which three were flying full-time. Monarch used I think four or five last year and had the same this year but sitting around a lot more.

In other words the above is a pretty good reason why the headline figure were so bad.

The good news is that in general the load factors are much better and in a month where Easter only partly affected the figures.

The big positive is Emirates as load factor and pax both up in a month Turkish increased. In fact the major hub destinations did well with FRA, MUC, DXB, IST, BRU, CPH up with only AMS (remember baby operated 2 x 149 seat aircraft a day compared to flybe's 78, 1-3 services a day with higher fares) and Zurich which suffered a 33% cut in frequency but was only down 24% and increased load factor by 6 points.

There are some disappointments such as Stockholm but it is early days and the Berlin figures seem to be cooling as well, which is a worry.

Another crude way of looking at it is to say that two thirds of the April loss (32000 pax) was accounted for on just four routes alone (Faro, Alicante, Malaga & Palma), which is only about 6% of the schedule destinations - quite a staggering stat.

BRUSSELS........9050 (8366)......46pax......57% (55%)

LARNACA...... 3363 (5000).....198 pax...92% (89%)

PAPHOS..........nil (3349)..........nil pax....nil (87% LF)

Copenhagen..... 7146 (6979).....78 pax.....78% (71%)

GRENOBLE....1314 (1192)......110 pax.......65% (76%) - 2012 easyjet only

MONTPELIER ......2187 (2387)......122 pax....64% (68%)

NICE................... nil (3438)........nil..........(72% LF 2012)

PARIS (CDG)... ...31654 (30171)......94 pax......80% (80%)

BERLIN (TEGEL).....4489 (nil)....75 pax...60% (nil)

DUSSELDORF.....16075 (13171)......53 pax....61% (55%)

FRANKFURT ...23763 (23737)......83 pax...71% (66%)

Hamburg.....2687 (2036).......56 pax..65% (50%) - flybe 2012 LH 2013

HANOVER....3699 (5241)....62 pax.....74% (60%) - daily from double daily

Munich.......14428 (13353).... 83 pax.....64% (73%) 2012 LH only but 2013 ZB until 22/4

STUTTGART......3401 (2909_...39 pax.....50% (43%)

GIBRALTAR......2364 (nil)....91 pax...52% (nil) - the promising start faltered

BUDAPEST...........0 (2367)....nil pax....nil (78%LF)

Cork..............6178 (6371) .....52 pax....73% (74%)

DUBLIN.........42700 (41458).....121 pax..67% (69%)

KNOCK..........2489 (5232).....42 pax.....59% (73%) WW 733 replaced by EIR AT72/42

SHANNON.....2678 (2976).....45 pax.....63% (69%)

WATERFORD..1569.(1554).....46 pax....57% (33%) - could be higher as posible cancellations

BERGAMO.......3530 (nil) .....136 pax...72% (nil)

MILAN (MXP).....3486 (5425).....58 pax...58% (41%) - ZB & BE in 2012)

ROME (FCO)......5343 (8513) ....157 pax..80% (67%) 0 ZB & WW in 2012

TRIESTE ............ 1897 (1951) ....119 pax...63% (57%)

VENICE..............3643 (3592).....140 pax..72% (61%)

KAUNAS............. 2570 (2870).....161 pax....85% (84%)

MALTA...............2976 (2976)......165 pax...87% (87%) - did the all the same pax fly again!!!!!!

AMSTERDAM....40985 (42671)...92 pax....81% (78%)

ISLAMABAD.....8818 (10121) ....259 pax...75%

BYDGOSZCZ......4340 (4070).....167 pax...88% (90%)

GDANSK............2805 (2587).....156 pax....83% (86%)

KATOWICE..........3953 (4232)....152 pax...80% (86%

KRAKOW,............2534 (nil) .....158 pax..84% (nil)

RZESZOW...........2455 (????).....164 pax....87% (88%) - based on 15 sectors - one RZE divert?

FARO.................8649 (16765)....166 pax...84% (80%)

LISBON.................nil (1749).......nil pax....nil (73%)

FUNCHAL......... 1993 (nil) ....125 pax...72% (nil)

BRATISLAVA.........4423 (3844).....170 pax...90% (85%)

ALICANTE............20232 (26365).....169 pax...85% (84%

ALMERIA......................0 (3363).....nil pax....nil (87%)

BARCELONA......... 4991 (3913)......147 pax...78% (73%) BMI Baby in 2012 & FR 2013

GIRONA....................2172 (4787).....121 pax...64% (75%) - frequencies added to BCN by FR at GRO's expense

IBIZA.......................3216 (3392).......124 pax...65% (69%)

MAHON......................0 (2489)...........nil pax....nil (72%)

MALAGA.............15591 (25862) .....166 pax...84% (83%)

MURCIA ................5299 (6982).....147 pax...78% (73%) - 2012 WW & FR)

PALMA .................5712 (13464).....136 pax....72% (75%) - WW, FR & ZB in 2012 just FR in 2013

REUS......................2894 (3544)....121 pax... 67% (72%)

ARRECIFE.............7277 (8103)....173 pax...87% (84%)

FUERTEVENTURA..4425 (4720)...170 pax...87% (69%)

LASPALMAS..........4576 (6002)....176 pax..89% (83%)

TENERIFE (TFS).....14450 (16075) .185 pax..90% (???)

GOTEBORG..................0 (1049)......nil pax

STOCKHOLM (ARN)....2409 (nil)....57 pax 45-50% approx

GENEVA.................3947 (4952)....123 pax....79% (89%) - WW & U2 in 2012

ZURICH..................8836 (11609)....74 pax....75% (69%) - 33% reduction in flights

DALAMAN.................. 0 (3409).....nil pax.....nil (88%)

ISTANBUL............9885 (7428).....115 pax....73-80% (75-82%)

Ashkhabad...........4932 (5629).....145 pax.......76% (83%)

DUBAI.......... 40817 (39490)...340 pax.....79% (77%

NEW YORK (EWR)..7764 (6650).....149 pax....88% (89%) 2012 saw few rotations in mid April

Pete
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Old 19th May 2013, 12:34
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RE :April route analysis - schedule International

Thanks for sharing your stats OP .

In fact the major hub destinations did well with FRA, MUC, DXB, IST, BRU, CPH up with only AMS
And don't forget DLH were on strike 22 APR so the figures could have been even better for the German hubs .
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Old 19th May 2013, 14:00
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April

getonittt

The DUS figures were already impressive without the loss of three return trips on strike day but I suppose some would have a gone on the flybe.

No alternatives for FRA or HAM but the Berlin actually operated - the only flight.

Waterford - I have used 34 sectors but libhomeradar had four missing so the load factor might be higher and perhaps Jamie2K9 or 78Whiskey could confirm.

Pete
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Old 21st May 2013, 15:08
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Air Berlin are operating a charter flight this Sunday using an A330.

They have a new growth plan: Birmingham Airport pushes forward huge new growth plan - Birmingham Mail

Last edited by Planeaddict; 21st May 2013 at 17:54.
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Old 21st May 2013, 17:14
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What are your thoughts on a new outdoor spotting facility, possibly situated near the fire station, giving a good view of the terminal as well as the runway, and being rather close to the taxi-way?
Might I suggest that you go back to page 5 and have a read of what everyone said the last time you raised this question? I doubt opinions have changed.
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Old 22nd May 2013, 05:11
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Growth Plan -2021

Whilst it should be applauded for forward planning I can't help thinking that the creation of 20,000 jobs is a little unreal. Without harping on previous posts regarding airline expansion, where are these jobs being created? The only evidence I can see for the immediate future is Monarch's hangar which is being constructed along with various hotels and shopping areas that are being planned.

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news...d-huge-3876552
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Old 22nd May 2013, 18:08
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Crewmeal,

Talking about diluting routes, don't forget TOM they also split both European and more so long haul routes between EMA and BHX.

Being a BHX bod, I would have thought it would be more cost effective to have just 1 long haul Midland base at the much larger conurbation area ..Birmingham.

Then again sure EMA bods would rightfully disagree with this, and sure TOM wouldn't offer EMA long haul if there wasn't a demand for such.

Nigel
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Old 22nd May 2013, 18:51
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Monarch

Monarch

Nine based from today and all were Monarch aircraft with one the old'uns gracing the tarmac (G-MONX). However BW was used for the two new services which were to Bordeaux and Split.

Alas rumour has it for one day only (at present) with at least one flight planned to be covered by another airline tomorrow. Saturday saw a Titan 146 on the Nice, therefore a light load or a long walk for the rest of the pax . A second flight appeared briefly on the departure screen but I don't think that operated.

Ryanair

I noticed that Krakow today was operated by a Krakow based aircraft with the BHX based aircraft that was used, now "rests".

The extra Faro on a Friday in August which I reported a while ago is actually a day swap from an extra Monday service which operates in July.

Small Planet

Seems to have been pushed back to 5th June and the Friday Skiathos to late June unless all earlier flights are completely sold out, which I doubt.


Pete
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Old 23rd May 2013, 00:15
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Small Planet Airlines at Birmingham

OP wrote
Small Planet

Seems to have been pushed back to 5th June and the Friday Skiathos to late June unless all earlier flights are completely sold out, which I doubt.
Package holidays to Skiathos are bookable on Olympic holidays website. Maybe they have sold the flight only allocation on the flight? The booking engine is showing the flight is operated by Small Planet if you choose a package on 14th June. I have family booked on that first flight. Also looking at their booking engine Birmingham-Corfu is bookable from the 3rd June 2013.

Daza

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Old 24th May 2013, 15:02
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BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.
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Old 24th May 2013, 16:58
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BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.
Erm, Easyjet don't offer connections.
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Old 24th May 2013, 17:04
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BHX needs an Easyjet base - could do wonders as far as connections are concerned.
Leaving aside the fact that, as chinapattern has said, EZY doesn't do interline, where would they be likely to fly from BHX that would really offer anything in the way of connections that aren't already offered across FRA, MUC, AMS CPH, DXB etc?

What BHX needs are services to the major European cities that are currently not served directly. These need to be business friendly services, and as such for the local economy would be best offered by major carriers offering minimum daily services, and business friendly times.
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Old 24th May 2013, 22:36
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What BHX needs are services to the major European cities that are currently not served directly. These need to be business friendly services, and as such for the local economy would be best offered by major carriers
Indeed, I couldn't agree more. However, assuming you mean places like MAD, PRG, HEL, LIS, WAW, ATH, well BHX has (for now) bugger all squared chance of even getting major full service alliance carriers to operate to such cities, let alone at daily frequency. The likes of TP, IB, AY, LO and OK are happy to codeshare into BHX with their partners who already do or not bother with it at all. These airlines don't even (with the exception of AY and TP) operate into MAN.

I think an increased EZY presence at BHX would do wonders, they operate to, or indeed have bases in a lot of the city gaps in the BHX European route structure and offer relatively business orientated products. As a point to point airline though, can BHX profitably fill an A319 or A320 to said cities without the interline pax who I am sure help keep many of it's current full service airline hub routes viable. Therein perhaps lies the answer to why there has never been an EZY base at BHX.

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