SOUTHEND - 4

[Phileas Fogg]

In a previous life I lived around Wellingborough and, EVERY TIME, BHX (less than an hour's drive away) got my business, I wasn't the least bit interested in LTN nor STN because I wasn't interested in LoCo's and from BHX I could fly with the likes of Lufthansa, KLM, Swiss, Air France, SAS to name but a few.

[Daza]

FRatSTN wrote

You live north of Birmingham and that even in my opinion is pushing Stansted's catchment area being on the the far side of the Midlands. The fact is, no matter how horrible you find it, something in the past had attracted you to travel all that way to Stansted when you have Birmingham, East Midlands, Manchester, Luton and Liverpool all closer to North Birmingham.

We have flown from Stansted on 6 return journeys since 2005. A large number of us in Leicestershire have and do use Stansted. I doubt if many of us even know that EasyJet has a base at Southend. In order to get a cheaper flight, Stansted is a more than realistic option for us, but Southend would never even come into most people's mind. Why? Because the catchment area is well out of our reach! It's the best part of an hour further away from anybody living west, northwest or north of Stansted, which is quite a large number of us!

I completely disagree with you that the WHOLE of the Midlands is in Stansted's catchment area. I live in Lichfield so maybe 10 miles due north of Birmingham. Would someone in Shrewsbury, Telford, Worcester or Hereford use STN as their first choice? They are all in the Midlands.

I did use STN once in 2010 with EZY and it was to a destination not offered from BHX, MAN or EMA. The flight was booked by friends. I also found the whole experience awful, from parking in long stay miles away from the terminal to long queues at check in. The bun fight of baggage reclaim (9 flights bags on one carousel) on return was horrendous. I guess you get what you pay for?

Anyway back to Southend! Hopefully the people of Southend, Essex and the East End of London will get more airline services and competition between airlines and airports will see prices will fall for consumers.

Daza

[FRatSTN]

Would someone in Shrewsbury, Telford, Worcester or Hereford use STN as their first choice? They are all in the Midlands.

Of course not, but to be in the catchment area of an airport doesn't mean it has to be the first choice. For example, East Midlands is my first choice, but since people from my area regularly use Birmingham, Luton and Stansted, we are still within the catchment area of those airports.

But ok I agree, the WHOLE of the Midlands maybe a bit OTT, but certainly the East Midlands, less so the West Midlands but people from places like Coventry, Birmingham etc. will certainly consider Stansted, but very unlikely to look at Southend.

The point I'm trying to make is that Southend has a catchment area which is much smaller than its rivals and that may be unattractive to start-up carriers and the extreme liklihood of Stansted adding value under new ownership may worsen things for Southend as competition will increase.

[Phileas Fogg]

Admittedly, from the Dartford Crossing and north-east London it's six of one and half a dozen of the other between SEN and STN, trunking down the A14 (if they still call it that) from the Midlands and/or the A11 from Narwich, then the M11, then people would be routing past STN to get to SEN.

Take the A12 from north East Anglia and/or from the A14/A45 then they'd never find STN.

[Copenhagen]

When I lived in Dunmow (5mins from STN) I once flew from EMA to the Canary Islands. Catchment works both ways.

[Pain in the R's]

You can just look at a UK map showing the motorway network to see what airports are easy to get to.

You can hate the place but there is no London airport easier to get to from the whole of the Midlands than Luton. Southend might as well be on the moon and Stansted is not that much better.

I do think that Southend could well struggle to attract new airlines with Stansted looking for new opportunities.

So how is Southend doing in attracting executive jet traffic away from other London Airports? I hear that it has made no impact what so ever but I am too far from Southend to know that for a fact.

[Ernest Lanc's]

FRatSTN

Of course not, but to be in the catchment area of an airport doesn't mean it
has to be the first choice. For example, East Midlands is my first choice, but
since people from my area regularly use Birmingham, Luton and Stansted, we are
still within the catchment area of those airports.

I live 20 miles from MAN, and 31 miles from BLK...I always choose BLK, unless MAN has a route that BLK does not.

If I lived in the Midlands, I would not use Stansted..

[Expressflight]

Changes to the DUB route

With effective from 1st April the Aer Lingus Regional DUB route will be operated by a DUB based aircraft so the timings are altered substantially. STAs SEN will be 0850, 1445 & 1905 with STDs 0915, 1510 & 1930.

The only valid commercial reason that I can see for making this change is if the current traffic is biased towards inward to SEN. If so it will offer much better timings for a DUB-SEN-DUB day return. Conversely it will make a day return in the opposite direction less attractive.

[Pain in the R's]

No issues with public transport for the first departure of the day which must be a good thing as it must have put some passengers off.

Also makes it less likely that other routes will now be launched from Southend seeing that they will be closing their Southend base

[FRatSTN]

The morning flight on Saturday's and Sunday's will be 1 hour later, arriving at SEN at 09:50 and leaving at 10:15.

Also makes it less likely that other routes will now be launched from Southend seeing that they will be closing their Southend base

I suppose it also means that there is more of a risk of them cutting to 2 flights a day as they can easily drop one of them and replace it with another route from Dublin.

[Expressflight]

I would be very surprised if RE didn't look at additional routes from SEN next year, bearing in mind the common ownership. I don't think that not having an aircraft based at SEN this summer makes any difference one way or another to the prospect of that happening.

[SWBKCB]

Does anybody know how the deal with EI affects RE's ability to operate flights in their own right? i.e. I wouldn't have thought EI would be particularly interested in SEN-CAX, so would RE have to have an aircraft dedicated to this route without the EI branding etc, etc

Also, catchment areas - surely these are dependent on the type of service and destinations offered by the airport concerned, and will be different depending on what is available. e.g. I'm in the NCL catchment area for DXB but in the catchment area of EDI/MAN for NYC...

[Expressflight]

SWBKCB

I don't know the answer to your question but I would think that RE would need to operate a fair network of routes in their own name to make it worthwhile. Brand recognition might also be a problem. I thought the original EI/RE agreement gave RE the freedom to choose the routes, provided they didn't conflict with RE mainline's interests, so CAX-SEN under Aer Lingus Regional branding might be possible.

I agree with you regarding catchment areas. When I lived in south Norfolk I flew from NWI, STN, LHR, LGW and SOU (once), depending on flight availability & frequency, price, timings and airline etc.. I lived next to the A11 so was technically in the STN catchment I suppose but, yes, I drove past STN somestimes to fly from elsewhere.

As far as SEN is concerned I'm sure it attracts travellers from well outside its core 600,000 catchment -some Norwich friends of mine flew from there last October for example. The A140/A12/A130 to SEN from Norwich would be the natural route by the way, not the A11.

[Expressflight]

PitRs

To answer your question on whether or not SEN is attracting more business flights, the raw answer would appear to be 'yes' as the last quarter stats for 2012 show a 63% increase on the 2011 figures.

It's still at a pretty low level though and a major commercial push is planned this year apparently. New management at the Executive Terminal should be in place by next month.

[airhumberside]

If RE are paying EI for using the brand, booking facilities etc, I can't see why EI would refuse permission to use their brand where it doesn't conflict with their own interests. I doubt BE are particularly bothered about Barra-Benbecula, but Loganair are paying them to use the BE brand, so they let them

[LGS6753]

Speculation on SEN being sold by Stobart

See the following story from 'Commercial Motor':

Commercialmotor.com - Is Stobart Group feeling the strain?

The last paragraph is the relevant one. It seems the City feels that Stobarts have over-diversified, and has appointed a new Executive Chairman to "rationalize the portfolio".

[Expressflight]

I would suggest that they would be unlikely to try to sell SEN at this time. To do so would smack of it being a 'fire sale', so reducing the likely price achievable. I can foresee the day when they might sell it; once its terminal is up to 2 mppa capacity and the full value of the asset is realisable. If they could then get a very healthy premium on their total investment it might make some sense, but not now.

[Barling Magna]

This story has been around for a while. Other articles have suggested that other parts of the Stobart portfolio will be sold off, but there's no denying that SEN could be sold. It would be a great shame in my opinion to see Stobart leave SEN after all the investment they have put into it. It would also put SEN at the mercy of being bought up by a rival airport owner and run down, as was alleged happened in the 1990s when RAL (a subsidiary of BAA) took over. On balance though, assuming that EZY maintained its 10 year contract with the new owner and that the excellent Alastair Welch remains as manager, the impact could be relatively minor. But, I doubt that Stobart will sell SEN - not for a few years anyway.

[LGS6753]

I'm afraid the points made by Barling Magna and Expressflight, whilst perfectly valid, will have little traction with the new Madame Executive Chairman of Stobart.
Her main concerns will be the strategic direction of the group, the use of management time, and the allocation of capital. If she considers operating aviation infrastructure is too different from the core business (road haulage & logistics), she may decide to sell. Also, if the group can achieve a better return on capital in haulage, she may choose to realign the business there and sell.
Aviation is unlikely to become the core business for Stobart - the best SEN can hope for is that she decides to retain the aviation assets (Aer Arann, SEN and Carlisle Airport) and place them in a separate division.
My personal view is that the least attractive asset is a small regional airline, operating as a franchise, and with no effective identity of its own.
Aviation is a business that Stobart has entered almost by chance - having seen an opportunity or three and taken them. Carlisle Airport is really about building a distribution depot in their home town, and buying SEN was an almost-logical extension of that. Then taking a stake in RE from examinership to create 'business' for a newly-developed airport was logical but perhaps not sensible.

[vulcanised]

The directors of Stobart have worried me (as a shareholder) for some time.

They sometimes seem to treat the business as a personal toy train set and, coupled with the incestuous deals, don't seem to be focussed where they should be.