BMI REGIONAL-2
Join Date: May 2013
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Thanks crewmeal, I tried my best.
SWBKCB, GrahamK, Dude~. Sorry about that, I messed up I was thinking £200 per passenger, so the calculations are probably a bit messed up after that, so then you'd have to add £200 per extra pax carried, but then with the new info you have given me regarding shortcuts etc, it's probably still 15-20 ish passengers to break even, no?
Dude~, as I said, I was sceptical about the figures I had, the website didn't seem the most professional but it had some numbers, so I used them.
SWBKCB, GrahamK, Dude~. Sorry about that, I messed up I was thinking £200 per passenger, so the calculations are probably a bit messed up after that, so then you'd have to add £200 per extra pax carried, but then with the new info you have given me regarding shortcuts etc, it's probably still 15-20 ish passengers to break even, no?
Dude~, as I said, I was sceptical about the figures I had, the website didn't seem the most professional but it had some numbers, so I used them.

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The Roskam method is usually a good way to calculate the COC and DOCs for a flight. Slightly out of date, but if you use good judgement for figures you normally get a realistic answer. Sure I have an excel spreadsheet somewhere...

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EK77WNCL, no need to apologise, I like data and you were on the right lines, just trying to offer some accurate figures to help. PM me if you want more data or info! At a guess I'd like to think you're in the right ballpark with your 15-20 break even load.
planenut321, what's this Roskam Method? I've never heard of it and google doesn't help.
planenut321, what's this Roskam Method? I've never heard of it and google doesn't help.

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Jan Roskam was an American Aerospace Engineer. The Roskam method can be seen in the 8th book in his series on airplane design: Airplane Cost Estimation: Design, Development, Manufacturing and Operating. It is a very good and lengthy series if you ever want to do preliminary aircraft design (did it for various University projects) albeit, as I said earlier, it being slightly out dated. His method considers various things from crew costs, fuel charges, aircraft cost, engine cost, TAT cost, en-route costs etc. The result is the total cost for a particular sector, which can then be translated into cost per seat per mile, or whatever unit you fancy. If anyone wants more detail you can send me a PM.
Back to bmi regional (or however it is stylised)....
Back to bmi regional (or however it is stylised)....
Last edited by planenut321; 2nd Nov 2013 at 20:52.

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ROSKAM method
Hi EK77WNCL,
Nice exercise. Below link gives some more info on Operating cost calculation,including Roskam method.
http://epats.eu/Files/Deliverables/E...nal%20V2.5.pdf
I'm not in te Airline industry myself,but it seems to be clarifying literature.
Grtz
Nice exercise. Below link gives some more info on Operating cost calculation,including Roskam method.
http://epats.eu/Files/Deliverables/E...nal%20V2.5.pdf
I'm not in te Airline industry myself,but it seems to be clarifying literature.
Grtz

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NCL
Good luck to them they will need it!
I think that the route is a year too late. When flybe used to do the route for SN before pulling out to edb they should have taken over it then. Monthly loading were around 4,500!!
They now need to build that up from ZERO and the cost of setting up etc!
They are talking of more routes from NCL too..
I think the management need to think long term!
They seem to have taken over an airline open all these new routes from bhx,brs,edb and then a year on they aren't working and the pull the routes
I think this airline needs to reduce in size and routes and make a profit then build on it.
Take a look at eastern no new routes for years but they have the right aircraft and routes to make a profit. They don't take risks in today's world!!
I think that the route is a year too late. When flybe used to do the route for SN before pulling out to edb they should have taken over it then. Monthly loading were around 4,500!!
They now need to build that up from ZERO and the cost of setting up etc!
They are talking of more routes from NCL too..
I think the management need to think long term!
They seem to have taken over an airline open all these new routes from bhx,brs,edb and then a year on they aren't working and the pull the routes
I think this airline needs to reduce in size and routes and make a profit then build on it.
Take a look at eastern no new routes for years but they have the right aircraft and routes to make a profit. They don't take risks in today's world!!

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The way things are going at bmi regional are to say the least very sad. The airline has it stacked against them on many levels.
A lot relates to the future position of Flybe, a weakening BE may create opportunities, but time may not be on their side.
EI-BUD
- High costs associated with regional jets. The average fares needed to make the flying programme are prohibitive.
- To sustain these costs they need some high volume routes with steady income flows to keep cash flow in the right state
- Possibly the biggest challenge in my view is the lack of brand recognition, how do they communicate with their audience? They need a very effective marketing department. This is huge challenge for all smaller airlines, and airlines like EZY, FR etc who are experiencing success get much better value from marketing spend. Again my second point, some high frequency routes might make sense in terms of marketing and value for marketing spend. Next to impossible to market a low frequency route from EU to UK.
- The level of staffing mentioned earlier sounds huge in relation to the size of the flying programme.
A lot relates to the future position of Flybe, a weakening BE may create opportunities, but time may not be on their side.
EI-BUD

NCL-BRU
Don't forget that BRU had been dropped previously by SN and then re-instated. I know a number of people who having tried the alternatives and can't wait to get the route back (although I'm not advocating "treat 'em mean, keep 'em keen" as an airline route development strategy).
Also re marketing, I would imagine that they are aiming at very specific market sectors where the cost of time is high or the alternatives aren't attractive rather than the general public, so probably don't need the level of market awareness of the EZY/RYR.
Also re marketing, I would imagine that they are aiming at very specific market sectors where the cost of time is high or the alternatives aren't attractive rather than the general public, so probably don't need the level of market awareness of the EZY/RYR.

Join Date: May 2013
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Relating specifically to NCL, I think that there are some routes that BM operate which would slot in quite nicely at NCL, and with the correct amount of advertising definitely have potential, although I think that some would need codeshares to have any hope of working. But something was mentioned earlier saying that codeshares often don't work because the larger airline gets the biggest percentage cut of the money, rather than BM being paid for each booking, or is that specifically related to an alliance context? I think that re-joining Star would kill off Bmi for good. Thank God there is no talk of it.
But some of the routes I think have potential from Newcastle are:
-Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.
-Milan, although I think they would stand in better stead to operate from Linate for business passengers, but I understand it is quite expensive.
-Norwich, I don't know personally but it was mentioned on the Newcastle thread that it is ranked number 1 on some list saying that there is demand for a service from NCL. MAN is 2nd but I think that's too much of a risk for BM, what do you think?
If they build up the "critical mass" they need, and set up a proper crew base and everything I think that Esbjerg, Kristiansand and Lyons could maybe work. NCL-Scandinavia always used to be a big market I am led to believe. Bergen would be nice but BM don't fly there.
The above is being extremely optimistic by the way. I'd like to see them work, but have my doubts. Quite a lot of them.
But some of the routes I think have potential from Newcastle are:
-Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.
-Milan, although I think they would stand in better stead to operate from Linate for business passengers, but I understand it is quite expensive.
-Norwich, I don't know personally but it was mentioned on the Newcastle thread that it is ranked number 1 on some list saying that there is demand for a service from NCL. MAN is 2nd but I think that's too much of a risk for BM, what do you think?
If they build up the "critical mass" they need, and set up a proper crew base and everything I think that Esbjerg, Kristiansand and Lyons could maybe work. NCL-Scandinavia always used to be a big market I am led to believe. Bergen would be nice but BM don't fly there.
The above is being extremely optimistic by the way. I'd like to see them work, but have my doubts. Quite a lot of them.

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Newcastle does not have enough business travellers on expenses to niche destinations to support this sort of operation. It's a business model from ye olden times that only Eastern clings to. Without STAR Alliance membership any standalone flight into a STAR hub will struggle, they can't even keep GLA-CPH running, a monopoly route SAS flew for decades before gifting to Midland when they retired the DC9s.
Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 3rd Nov 2013 at 00:45.

Join Date: Mar 2006
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EK77WNCL:
Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.
Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.
These days it's only four weekly flights between Norway and Newcastle (Wideroe from SVG) and around 2,000 passengers per month. I can't say anything other than BMI regional will not find a treasure chest here.

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It's a bit more than a few years ago Jamesair. All direct flights between NCL and OSL was closed down sometime in 2001 according to CAA (after 9/11?). I don't know which airline flew this route at that time. In 1998 there were 91,785 passengers between Newcastle and Norway and in 2012 the same number was 33,191 - in other words 36% of what it was 14 years earlier.
Scheduled direct flights from the following Norwegian airports to Newcastle:
1998: BGO, OSL and SVG
1998-2001: OSL and SVG
2001-2005: SVG
2005-2007: BGO, SVG and TRF (Ryanair)
2007-2010: BGO and SVG
2010-2011: BGO, RYG (Ryanair) and SVG
2011-present: SVG
Braathens ceased to exist with SAS taking them over in 2002, but the aircraft stayed on under the Braathens logo until the full merger with SAS took effect on 1 March 2005 (all Norwegian SAS operation was then renamed to SAS Braathens in spring 2004 and that included also the Braathens aircraft).
Scheduled direct flights from the following Norwegian airports to Newcastle:
1998: BGO, OSL and SVG
1998-2001: OSL and SVG
2001-2005: SVG
2005-2007: BGO, SVG and TRF (Ryanair)
2007-2010: BGO and SVG
2010-2011: BGO, RYG (Ryanair) and SVG
2011-present: SVG
Braathens ceased to exist with SAS taking them over in 2002, but the aircraft stayed on under the Braathens logo until the full merger with SAS took effect on 1 March 2005 (all Norwegian SAS operation was then renamed to SAS Braathens in spring 2004 and that included also the Braathens aircraft).

Join Date: May 2013
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And why are there less passengers now??? Because the routes aren't there. As far as I know, 60,000 people haven't stopped going to Norway. Well, maybe they have, but that may only be because there is no way to get there, and they don't want to go to Stavanger.
Do you know if passenger numbers went up in 2005-2007, 2007-2010 and 2010-2011 when more flights were available? Or if you have the data for all the years to analyse the trends that would be great. Or if you could direct me where to find the info myself
Thank you
Do you know if passenger numbers went up in 2005-2007, 2007-2010 and 2010-2011 when more flights were available? Or if you have the data for all the years to analyse the trends that would be great. Or if you could direct me where to find the info myself

Thank you

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And why are there less passengers now??? Because the routes aren't there

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Nah, pilot'll do for me thanks :P as the famous saying goes:
"How do you become a millionaire"
"Start off a trillionaire and start up an airline"
- Sir Richard Branson
But yeah I see what you mean about market trends, but if SAS increased their presence could there not be hope, this critical mass thingy? Or Norwegian Air Shuttle even? Thinking along the lines of CPH, OSL, ARN and maybe HEL in the case of NAX. No? Maybe? Hopefully...
Edit: Might as well squeeze in another quote while I'm at it
"Build it and they will come"
- Dubai
"How do you become a millionaire"
"Start off a trillionaire and start up an airline"
- Sir Richard Branson
But yeah I see what you mean about market trends, but if SAS increased their presence could there not be hope, this critical mass thingy? Or Norwegian Air Shuttle even? Thinking along the lines of CPH, OSL, ARN and maybe HEL in the case of NAX. No? Maybe? Hopefully...
Edit: Might as well squeeze in another quote while I'm at it
"Build it and they will come"
- Dubai
Last edited by EK77WNCL; 3rd Nov 2013 at 22:27.

Join Date: Aug 2002
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"Build it and they will come"
- Dubai
- Dubai
Sheffield
Doncaster-Sheffield
Newquay
Durham Tees-Valley etc
Unless you have a market willing to pay a commercial return, they don't come, they really don't.
EK777 - don't take Skipness *too* literally.
Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 3rd Nov 2013 at 22:42.
