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BMI REGIONAL-2

Old 31st Oct 2013, 22:23
  #781 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah thought not really, plus the fact its sort of not allowed to have passenger flights hahaha. But speaking of Southend, could they not pick up some higher end business flights from there? I've met a few stuck up sods who wouldn't touch Easyjet with a barge pole (Cant see why they're quote good but then again I would be one if I could afford it haha, no offence to anyone BTW...). But the question is, how many of these businessmen are going to troop out to Southend when they could just as easily use LHR. I think Southend could have the edge on it because heathrow is still quite a trek but... I dunno.
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Old 31st Oct 2013, 22:32
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The most obvious business route from Southend is probably Edinburgh but BM are closing the Edinburgh base. Easyjet have struggled from Southend to both Belfast and Edinburgh.

If someone has access to corporate cash to avoid Easyjet, they can also use corporate cash on the Heathrow Express taking 15-20 mins to Paddington or fly to London City.
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Old 31st Oct 2013, 22:32
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I suppose it depends where they live. For the wealthy west London area there is heathrow nearby. For City types there is LCY. But I'm not too familiar with the Southend area. If there are enough people willing to pay BM it may work as Southend is now pretty well established. There are no early trains however so the business folk would have to either taxi or drive there. So who knows what may happen. As already mentioned, most Londoners think BMI went the way of the dodo. It may be hard to tempt people to an airline that they may see as being back from the dead.
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Old 31st Oct 2013, 22:43
  #784 (permalink)  
 
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Bit of a strange idea but could they make a go of somewhere like Biggin Hill for business types? Or is it lacking a terminal etc?
No, it's not a commercial airport. The main issue here is that the company is looking for niche markets with a niche aeroplane on high yielding business routes. That's a rapidly diminishing field, and rightly so.
no offence to anyone BTW
That's a clue that you just caused offence, I would not want to do the EZY boarding experience at certain airports more than once in a while, the ground experience is often very poor at certain airfields.
As for BMI Regional, well it's game over for this business model if we're being honest.

Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 31st Oct 2013 at 22:48.
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Old 31st Oct 2013, 22:57
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I can understand the reasons for dropping the three Edinburgh routes which seem to be adequately served by other operators, I think they will have a better chance with Newcastle - Brussels on which they would be the only operator.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 06:55
  #786 (permalink)  
 
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To me one of the big problems with BMIR is the choice of aircraft. When Maersk decided to go for the CRJ customer satisfaction went through the floor and whilst there were 2 class 1-11's and 737's flying around the regions the CRJ suffered severe criticism from a general lack of room, especially from pax paying premium fares. I think BMIR have followed the same path regarding this type of aircraft. If they had invested in A318/9 aircraft then I'm sure things would have been better. Not having flown with them I can't comment on the service onboard and I'm sure it's good.

I'm at a loss to understand why BLL was chosen from BHX. having been there many times the only thing going for it is Legoland and the local sceneary. It certainly couldn't support a winter schedule hence its closure. OSL would have been a better choice.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 07:30
  #787 (permalink)  
 
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It is hardly surprising to read of the the closure of the MAN-ANR route, judging by what I saw recently. This is the morning flight arriving from Antwerp from Manchester on 24th October: Ship Photos, Container ships, tankers, cruise ships, bulkers, tugs etc Just 2 passengers! (Unless the rest were hiding on the deck!)
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 09:18
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Originally Posted by crewmeal
To me one of the big problems with BMIR is the choice of aircraft. ...
If they had invested in A318/9 aircraft then I'm sure things would have been better.
It's not as simple as that. Bear in mind that the aircraft were part of the package which they bought - they may not be as attractive to passengers as A319s but they are a damn sight cheaper. If bmir had magically found the cash to lease in A319s (hint: don't recommend the A318, the economics of the aircraft in normal use are so bad that it kills your credibility to do so ), they'd no longer be looking for high-yield niche routes, they'd have to find fatter routes where they'd be competing directly with low-cost carriers. I don't see that working either.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 09:51
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Originally Posted by KelvinD
It is hardly surprising to read of the the closure of the MAN-ANR route, judging by what I saw recently. This is the morning flight arriving from Antwerp from Manchester on 24th October: Ship Photos, Container ships, tankers, cruise ships, bulkers, tugs etc Just 2 passengers! (Unless the rest were hiding on the deck!)
There should be at least 4 pax on that aircraft because its normal procedure to seat the first 2 pax at the overwing exit for legal reasons. So if we can see 2 pax not at emergency exit there should be one sitting at each exit out of view. Doesn't look like there is though and 4 pax is still a poor load factor for a scheduled jet flight.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 10:29
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I think Manchester-Antwerp had 42 round trips in September. CAA stats indicate 1,486 passengers, suggesting an average of 17.7 passengers per flight.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 10:48
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Antwerp Airport is always going to be a niche route. It's supported London flights for years as there is enough VFR catchment in the Flanders region plus the port/diamond/petro chemical business traffic. Other routes have always struggled and been pulled after a season or so. MAN was operated by VLM/CityJet for a while until they pulled out when they re-focused on LCY only. ANR has a very short runway and tentative plans to extend it have met with ongoing opposition so it will only support turbo props or small jets such as the E135/E145. Perhaps that's why BMIR picked it up? BRU is only 40 mins away and now with direct trains to Antwerp Centraal so it really isn't a surprise that MAN/ANR had such low numbers.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 11:51
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I've never understood why anyone would fly to Antwerp at inflated prices when BRU is not far down the road with much greater frequency - therefore flexibility - and you get the train directly into Antwerp city centre.

Rotterdam is another one of those places to which it doesn't make sense having air services. Multiple flight choices into Schipol, get the train from the airport and you're in Rotterdam city centre in no time.
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Old 1st Nov 2013, 13:06
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I wonder how much of their business plan (if any) relied on obtaining an interline agreement with one or more STAR carriers? Their routes to BRU, CPH and FRA seemed to particularly rely on this, judging by the way that LBA-BRU and EMA-FRA, both well established routes, were pulled after bmi left STAR. Now EDI-BRU and CPH are going too. For this reason I am a little dubious over their choice of NCL-BRU, but I wish it well.

Since their independence, they seem to have developed what appears to be a random patchwork of routes, which has included some very odd decisions, perhaps the most bizarre of which was to operate Manchester-Antwerp. They knew the route was being abandoned by the previous carrier, they could see the passenger stats. What made them think they could turn it round? One from the Leeds-Lille school of route planning.

I would really like to see them shake off this seemingly random approach and develop some focus as to what they offer. Perhaps the relative success of their Adge Cutler operation offers some clue. Either way, I want to see them around for many years to come.

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Old 1st Nov 2013, 16:58
  #794 (permalink)  
 
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Crewmeal - re BHX-BLL

There is a lot more to Billund than Legoland and scenery. Lots of business/industrial synergies with UK. Why do you think it has maintained a LCY link for so long? I'm sure it was served from BHX before, certainly it is/was from MAN.

It is exactly the sort of route that should have worked; if it doesn't, well then you have a problem because it suggests companies aren't willing to pay the fares required to make routes too thin for LCCs work in enough numbers. You would be looking to draw in from a wide area for such routes, and it looks as though some of that market have probably gone for the low fares of Ryanair from STN.
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 02:44
  #795 (permalink)  
 
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The lack of an early train service to Southend was one of the reasons easyjet gave for their EDI and BFS services underperforming. So I suppose they could try again if an early train is introduced.

Also just wondering about the NCL-BRU service. I was wondering what sort of loads they'd need for the service to be profitable. I have no idea the reliability of these figures, if you think they're incorrect please correct me.

The aircraft is supposed to do 0.24 miles per litre, so lets say the aircraft uses 4.1 litres per mile (rounded the wrong way to be conservative). so NCL-BRU is 385 miles which equals 1578.5 litres. That's as the crow flies so we'll assume... 1700 litres accounting for takeoff, climb, the lack of straight lines etc... The ERJ145 has a fuel capacity of about 6400 litres, so, so far only 26.6% of the fuel capacity has been used. Now I don't have details per hour so, the intended flight time is 1h 25, so that's 85 minutes. 1700/85= 20 litres per minute, so 20*90=1800, 1700+1800=3500 litres accounting for reserves. Then. I couldn't for the life of me find recent definite Jet A1 prices and the ones I did, I don't know if it's per litre or per gallon. So I'm going to go with the one I think is the most reliable. According to ukga, on the 13th June 2011, fuel cost £0.84, I'm assuming per litre, so if it is, 0.84*3500= £2940. So if we assume £3000 to be on the safe side, and then a complete guess of £200 for other expenses equals, obviously, £3200. So if you use the cheapest the flight is currently available for, £70 outbound, 3200/70=45.7 = 46 passengers on the saver fare which is completely unrealistic to keep up a load factor of 94% but then at the other end of the spectrum, if all passengers fly business at £516.38, they only need 6.2, so 7 passengers to make a profit. So that's unfortunately gotten us nowhere, should have done this first and not typed as I went, so... If I take a mean of the lowest, economy saver and the most expensive, business flex, 70+516.38=586.38/2=293.18, 3200/293.18 = 11 passengers, if there is an equal balance of last minute bookings and cheapies, but assuming there weren't, an educated guess from the above calculations would suggest that 15-20 passengers would make the route marginally profitable assuming only the bare minimum saver seats were sold. Does that sound about right to people?

If anyone can see any maths errors above, or can add more accurate information then please don't hesitate. What sorts of loads are being carried on sectors of similar lengths?

Thanks
Martin
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 08:13
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Airport Fees, ATC fees etc on top of that?
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 08:15
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Also tax!
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 09:53
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Originally Posted by EK77WNCL
and then a complete guess of £200 for other expenses equals
Do you work in the bmi planning department?!
Flight crew, engineers, HQ office staff, insurance, maintenance, airways fees, airport fees, handling fees, there are many other expenses!

Btw, none of the bmi Embraers can hold 6400L of fuel. The book says capacity is 5146L which is 4173kg. Airlines work in kg, and its rare to be able to get more than 4000kg into the tanks. So that's 5000L. I couldn't follow your maths but I think you're out by a factor of 2 on the fuel burn. NCL-BRU would be about 1400 kg or 1750 L. Often less with a bit of work from the crew on shortcuts, cruise speed and descent efficiency.
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 09:53
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I don't know but the airport may offer some sort of incentive to get the route started, maybe for the first year.
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Old 2nd Nov 2013, 10:17
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If it's true that EK77WNCL is only 15 which is stated in his profile, then I think he has done a good job on some basic calculations and is maybe part of a school/college technical assignment. Yes of course there are other operating factors which have been mentioned, but well done anyway.
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