BIRMINGHAM - 5

[Guest 112233]

Yes but

I read the article and Birmingham came in 19th just ahead of "Space".

A roaring endorsement.

CAT III

[GayFriendly]

Just seen that EK have finally confirmed second daily GLA from 1/6/2012 using A340-300 which I guess puts the lid on an EDI service by QR or EY? How are the loads doing BHX-DXB I know they took a slight hit when MAN got its third daily EK. Any news on TK going daily, a TK rep told me last year that it would but haven't seen anything officially announced, getting a bit late for summer?

[OltonPete]

EK/TK

GF

The figures were steadily increasing but then went south (I suppose in geographical terms went north ), as soon as the Manchester's Middle Eastern expansion took place.

December was certainly not a good month in the terms of the number of seat downgrades to the three-class 777's. I think it was the most since August and equal to June, which is/was low season. The last month without a seat downgrade was April 2011.

However 2012 has started well with all flights thus far 428 or 442 seat aircraft per libhomeradar.

Last month 16 out of 62 flights were three class 777's including one 772!!!

Per another forum BHX is now just behind Moscow to get a third EK daily but with a string of new routes and upgrades from one to two daily first but we will have to wait and see to see if that pans out.

Glasgow's upgrade is happening in the same month as BHX's second flight started, which is bang in the middle of the low season and in 2012 Ramadan starts in July (third week), which always affects loads. Anything from September 2012 would be a good for BHX

As for TK, there are plenty of rumours of BHX daily and Manchester ten weekly but not in any system I have access to at the moment.

Pete

[nigel osborne]

Gay Friendly,

Nothing officially released about TK going daily, but it is on the cards still I believe for late summer.

Certainly more 2 class 77Ws on the EK so probably better loads.

Things are settling down at MAN, SQ cutting 1 flt a week and rumours that QR may go from twice daily to 10 a week, with twice daily staying only on Sun Wed Fri,

That should help BHX a bit if true.

Nigel

[jabird]

not a good month in the terms of the number of seat downgrades

Pete, could you confirm what you mean by this? Do you just mean smaller a/c used, or are passengers who have bought premium tix actually downgraded to a smaller seat (presumably with difference refunded)?

[jabird]

SQ to Manchester is rumoured to be separeated from MUC for winter

That would be very welcome, the whole point of flying from a regional airport (whether BHX or MAN) is to avoid the hassle of going through London - the MUC stop takes away much of that.

[legalize]

Is this the end for Swissport?

Walked in to work today and heard the news that Swissport have lost the BE contract. As BE made up for 70% of their work is it now financially viable for them to continue? The small profit made from remaining airlines would barely pay to keep the lights on!

Menzies have now won the contract. About time a 3rd handling agent came in. Don't really know much about them though. Are they bigger than Swissport overall?

[Burpbot]

Menzies are ok, swissport bigger on global scale but really been pulling out throughout europe. Used to be big in Germany but about a year ago sold up. I suspect they will sell bhx ops to menzies. Just hope all the employees are looked after on what becomes a regular jobs roundabout for the guys that work for the handlers.

[GayFriendly]

EK

Anything from September 2012 would be a good for BHX

OP

Yes I think that is the very earliest we can expect for a third daily given the fact that low season and Ramadan are merging into one long-ish block and all the other route developments you mention. In an ideal world it would be so very nice to see another Mid East carrier at BHX but can't see this in the short term, I think mainly because this would dangerously dilute what yield there is from BHX. Only EK BHX and NCL will be two class services from June in the UK, this is a worry as it shows the fragility of the high yield front end of aircraft market in the Midlands. Another Mid East carrier at the moment IMO would destroy this for EK. Still, if they can fill more economy seats on a two class and still be happy then I guess it can't be all bad. I used to fly three times a year BHX-DXB-MCT for four years (only once on a three class a/c) and never flew on a less than 90% full flight, with Business often being totally full.

Out of interest, there are now very few EK destinations worldwide that are two class, some Indian sub continent destinations are plus only IST, JKT, MNL and DUR being the notable others. In the long run, will EK do mostly away with two class aircraft if the number of two class destinations served becomes so small?

Fingers crossed for TK, perhaps daily in summer then reduced for winter? Or maybe same frequency but more 321 aircraft used?

[splash&dash]

Ref runway extension doubters-
Now with the HS2 approved, surely this boosts the business case even more?!
Rail time between Birmingham interchange and Euston - 38mins! That's probably quicker than LGW to central London.

I know it's a long way off but by the time it's built London airports will be overflowing. IMHO a longer runway at BHX will be a great asset for the future.

[OltonPete]

EK

jabird

Yes I should have explained that a little bit better.

I mean the number of seats on offer in terms of capacity, this was due to the number of 360 seat three class aircraft used instead of the 428/442-seat two class Boeing 77W's (16 in total or 32 sectors).

A capacity downgrade but for cattle class no doubt a very popular seating upgrade - 386 or 400 economy seats down to 304 or 310.

Ryanair Murcia back to four a week for 2012 for the third time!!!!

Pete

[revo]

Ryanair

Im guessing the Ryanair bit is Murcia Pete?

Chris

[OltonPete]

Murcia - Ryanair

Beat me to it Chris, I was editing the post as you wrote.

A quick check of the other routes showed little change and still some gaps.

Pete

[GayFriendly]

Lets hope that them there little gaps are filled in in a constructive manner by FR in the form of a new destination or two (preferably one that is not already served)! I live in hope!

[Jonnyf]

I would think it is time Ryanair considered services back to city destinations, be nice to see them serve the likes of Bergamo, Barcelona, Madrid etc and the likes of Skavsta back that performed well before they were axed

[jabird]

Ref runway extension doubters-
Now with the HS2 approved, surely this boosts the business case even more?!
Rail time between Birmingham interchange and Euston - 38mins! That's probably quicker than LGW to central London.

I know it's a long way off but by the time it's built London airports will be overflowing. IMHO a longer runway at BHX will be a great asset for the future.

I'm still sceptical, but what it does is put the cost in perspective - hs2 is £145m per mile, similar to the whole project cost of the runway extension! If BHX get it right, they open up the airport to routes spanning all corners of the globe (well LAX and PVG on a good day).

HOWEVER - the 38 mins is only to the site, to the east of the M42. A people mover with a capacity of just 1000 people per hour will then trundle along with stops at the NEC, the existing station, and only then the airport. Airport claim 3 minutes, I think that is highly ambitious, 7-10 would be more realistic.

Then there is the question of cost. At the moment, a comparable hs1 journey would be Ashford to London, also 38 mins. There are no advance tickets, just peak for £32.20, off peak £30.40 each way, double for return. Why would hs2 be any cheaper than this, as the hs1 domestic is a secondary service on the back of Eurostar, and the distance on this journey is less?

Something will give in the SE, and at least one runway will be build somewhere. Will BHX attract some passengers on some flights to come out of London? Yes, I understand it already does - but we're talking a few percent, not big numbers.

Meanwhile, hs2 will meet Crossrail at Old Oak Common, making LHR more attractive to people who would otherwise use BHX.

So I ask how many new routes will exist as a result of hs2 being there? I suggest very few. What would happen though is that BHX will become more accessible from points further north who use services that join the line at Rugely. What remains to be seen is whether this traffic would support any long haul routes, or whether these people would continue to either use Manchester for this, or continue down to London.

I'd still rather pin my hopes on expanding the short haul network - Johnnyf, I agree about those cities, but when you say they were succesful, do you mean loads or yields?

[Jonnyf]

Loads, Do not have ideas of yields for what Skavsta and the likes of Torp, Weeze, Hahn, Pisa, Krakow, Bologna etc,

Ryanair however go where it is cheapest to operate and not exactly what routes passengers want to see !!

[jabird]

Ryanair however go where it is cheapest to operate and not exactly what routes passengers want to see !!

Very true, nor do they go where us armchair ppruners want them to go either!

That's why my disappointment is with Flybe. I don't know if they will look that way, just because of Flybenordic, again, doesn't mean they will connect the two up.

[OltonPete]

Ryanair

jabird & Jonnyf

Sad as it sounds I used to monitor the booking engine for fares quite often in the early days of the Ryanair base and of course I was quite interested in going to some of the destinations mentioned.

My thoughts from random checks mainly outside of July & August: -

NYO - Loads good, and fares in general were low-medium

TRF - Loads average outside of summer months and fares rock bottom mainly

PSA - Average loads and fares fairly high for FR compared to others

HHN & NRN - loads average although NRN did pick up towards the end but fares always seem to be rock bottom

BLG - Loads average but never really checked fares on this route

KRK- Loads good, fares medium to high (I assumed dropped in favour of EMA)

OPO - Loads good, perhaps average in the depths of winter, fares reasonable
but reported as very low yield from ancillaries especially in the low season.

Pete

[jabird]

BLG - Loads average but never really checked fares on this route

Do you mean BLQ? I used this route, and there were even some business users, iirc load was quite good, but I only paid £5 all in!

Even if loads good and yields ok, it has to suit the operating pattern of the a/c - but with 50 bases to juggle between including BHX, if enough demand is there, the route should work!

Then again, NYO in a 738 v ARN in an E175 - as they say, do the math!