Ref runway extension doubters-
Now with the HS2 approved, surely this boosts the business case even more?!
Rail time between Birmingham interchange and Euston - 38mins! That's probably quicker than LGW to central London.
I know it's a long way off but by the time it's built London airports will be overflowing. IMHO a longer runway at BHX will be a great asset for the future.
I'm still sceptical, but what it does is put the cost in perspective - hs2 is £145m per mile, similar to the whole project cost of the runway extension! If BHX get it right, they open up the airport to routes spanning all corners of the globe (well LAX and PVG on a good day).
HOWEVER - the 38 mins is only to the site, to the east of the M42. A people mover with a capacity of just 1000 people per hour will then trundle along with stops at the NEC, the existing station, and only then the airport. Airport claim 3 minutes, I think that is highly ambitious, 7-10 would be more realistic.
Then there is the question of cost. At the moment, a comparable hs1 journey would be Ashford to London, also 38 mins. There are no advance tickets, just peak for £32.20, off peak £30.40 each way, double for return. Why would hs2 be any cheaper than this, as the hs1 domestic is a secondary service on the back of Eurostar, and the distance on this journey is less?
Something will give in the SE, and at least one runway will be build somewhere. Will BHX attract some passengers on some flights to come out of London? Yes, I understand it already does - but we're talking a few percent, not big numbers.
Meanwhile, hs2 will meet Crossrail at Old Oak Common, making LHR more attractive to people who would otherwise use BHX.
So I ask how many new routes will exist as a result of hs2 being there? I suggest very few. What would happen though is that BHX will become more accessible from points further north who use services that join the line at Rugely. What remains to be seen is whether this traffic would support any long haul routes, or whether these people would continue to either use Manchester for this, or continue down to London.
I'd still rather pin my hopes on expanding the short haul network - Johnnyf, I agree about those cities, but when you say they were succesful, do you mean loads or yields?