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Old 23rd Feb 2013, 16:14
  #1301 (permalink)  
 
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My gut feeling is that it's Aerlingus or nothing on ORK JFK for the forseeable future.
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Old 23rd Feb 2013, 20:16
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Ryan2000: For decades Aerlingus has been trying to persuade business passengers in the Cork area to use Shannon to get to New York. They even provided free limousines at one stage to transport them there. However most prefer to travel via LHR.

I'm still not certain that normal business logic prevails when it comes to Aerlingus' transatlantic operation at Shannon. Is the A330 operation there profitable? It was losing money for years and yet they still operated it.

I presume if Shannon get 2 757's, it will free up an A330. San Francisco and Dubai as a code share with Ethiad are two possibilities in this scenario.


Sorry to kill your dreams but EI do not have any vendetta against ORK. They want to make a profit.

-"No-one made them buy the A330".....no-one did, but economics did. Are you siggesting that EI in the mid-1990's should have bought B757's just to serve ORK-USA?

-Yes for years EI did persuade business pax to use SNN, Why? Because thats where EI operated from/. As for the limos'.....this was an old perk of flying in Premier, you got Limo pick-up.....it wasn't a way to hurt ORK.

-"normal business logic"? Hve you noticed how EI over the last 3 years have greatly scaled back their SNN ops? They even suspend T/A serices over the Winter as its not profitable at this point.
-"Is the A330 operation profitable" Well the 2012 results say that it is. EI previously operated the route and lost money because the Govt was calling the shots.

And to be predantic.....a codeshare with EY would go to Abu Dhabi, not Dubai. Why do this when EY already have 10 flights a week?
And the DUB-SFO would need 1.5-2 A330 units to operate at 4-5 weekly,which is the lowest entry point EI need to make it attractive to business class pax.
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Old 23rd Feb 2013, 21:23
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Dollar Bill, My sources in relation to SFO and Ethiad came from within the company, I'm not advocating that they operate those routes. In June 2008 when announcing that they were stopping winter flights to BOS and JFK from Shannon, EI made the extraordinary admission that these routes were consistently loss making for over a decade. A business driven airline would have chopped them years ago or at the very least purchased a suitable aircraft for them. Better late than ever.

I still think that political considerations are taken into account in relation to Shannon.

From the decision to purchase 747's in the early 70's to the 767 fiasco in the early 90's to using wide bodies on thin routes , EI seem to have made frequent mistakes with choice of aircraft on the atlantic. I wasn't criticising them for providing surface transport for 1st class passengers from Cork to Shannon. I'm just pointing out that a 757 operation from Cork might provide enough of the lucrative business traffic that is currently using LHR and AMS if these people conclude that flying East to fly west is less convenient than a direct route.

In general I think the addition of narrow bodies for the 1st time since the 707 era is a good move and will become the norm for East Coast destinations in the future.

Last edited by ryan2000; 23rd Feb 2013 at 21:28.
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Old 23rd Feb 2013, 22:59
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Yes EI have made some bad fleet decisions, however the B747 was only bad in light of the mid 70's Oil Crisis. And EI very creatively managed to tap into the leasing market to offset the seasonality of the Irish market.

SNN was always a political issue. EI didn't want to go through there but were forced to stick with. Purely from an aircrft cycle point of view it wasn't good for EI. A smaller aircraft should ahve been sourced in the late 80's/early 90's.
Remember the furore when EI pulled the SNN-LHR flights in favour of BFS-LHR? (Personally I thought that was a short sighted decision by an incapable CEO, reduction perhaps,but abandonment no)

EI pulling out of SNN over the winter was because they finally had a CEO who was willing to make a stand. It showed the SNN did not have an eternal 'right' to have T/A ops. SNN winter Ops gave always been bad. (In fact before Mueller arrived the 2 SNN routes were losing 1m a year each) The adjustment in schedule to a 3/4 mix has allowed EI to keep both routes at high load factor.

Now lets look at the options: 14X B757= 2300 weekly seats, 7 x A330 = 1900 seats. From the SNN POV 2x B757's are a lot better, thats 1 A330 freed up.
On top of that EI shall codeshare on the UA SNN-ORD route,so EI still keep access to 3 T/A routes from SNN

2 more B757s perhaps. 1 can launch DUB-YYZ. This of course would leach some pax from the DUB-ORD route. That could allow a reduction in frequency on this route, (maybe back to 7 weekly) thus freeing up a partial A330.....

Now we suddenly have 1.5 A330 available for the EI fleet planning Dept in S14. I know when I would want to sent it.......SFO. Whether that is cost effective pre-A350, well only the EI analysts can answer that.

As for the EY option, again I will scoff at the possibility of EI launching DUB-DXB. I would however see a market for EY/EI transfer potential on AUH-DUB-BOS/YYZ.


Unfortunately for ORK I feel the the B757 while being the perect aircraft is not an option in EI hands. 2 aircraft in SNN, 1 in DUB, maybe another in ORK for ORK-JFK. Not a good position for Fleet Planning/Flight Operations.
What happens when 1 goes tech? Will EI cancel the lucrative core routes from SNN and DUB, or will they transfer ORK pax up to SNN/DUB and use the "Cork B757" to cover the tech aircraft? I would bet on the later.

And ORK currently has an pretty nice shorthaul network, I agree that T/A Ops may reduce S/H pax numbers. The lack of CBP would hinder ORK-JFK viability. Operating into 2 terminals with only 1 of 3-4 daily flights is not a smart move.
And I cannot see the US Govt setting up CBP for less then 1000 pax per week, this prevents EI trying to use ORK as a transfer point for UK regional traffic.
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Old 24th Feb 2013, 13:06
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B757x3 EI

Interesting times and good to see EI going for strategic growth
EI will do 2x daily to. ORD BOS NYC from DUB year round , Novair Scandinavia will take a 330 and further news on other winter plans

EI will likely go EWR for extra flights as a few posters have copped that JFK terminal 5 is out of the question of course this does rule Cork out for nw but brings in Bfs as well as SNn interesting and of course close parter UA will be party to the plans


West Coast fuel price too high, YYZ in the mix ,


Big increase in capacity EI to Scandiavia , as a result of Novair, so how does it get filled another Viking invasion this winter is required !!!

Last edited by Hangar6; 24th Feb 2013 at 13:09. Reason: Spelling
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Old 24th Feb 2013, 14:08
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2 more B757s perhaps. 1 can launch DUB-YYZ. This of course would leach some pax
from the DUB-ORD route. That could allow a reduction in frequency on this route,
(maybe back to 7 weekly) thus freeing up a partial A330.....
..
Now we suddenly have 1.5 A330 available for the EI fleet planning Dept in S14. I
know when I would want to sent it.......SFO. Whether that is cost effective
pre-A350, well only the EI analysts can answer that.

In the context of the strong proportion of interlining traffic at Dublin Airport, I am surprised that this does not support plans or make a west coast route sustainable. However, I do feel that if say San Francisco was to be a viable route it would need to be at least x 5 weekly. The amount of metal tied up on such a route, likely make it unattractive in the context of what fleet they have, with what is on order plus the opportunities on the eastern side of the US and Canada.

EI will likely go EWR for extra flights as a few posters have copped that JFK
terminal 5 is out of the question of course this does rule Cork out for nw but
brings in Bfs as well as SNn interesting and of course close parter UA will be
party to the plans
What is the reference to BFS about Hangar6?

Last edited by EI-BUD; 24th Feb 2013 at 14:13.
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Old 24th Feb 2013, 14:27
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BFS

Mentioned as B757 will add capacity to EWR from Island and UA rotes and EI will be looked at jointly in line with a view to build on partnership and lessons learnt on WAS MAD service as I said strategic growth sustainable and has to be profitable from day one
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Old 24th Feb 2013, 14:34
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Mentioned as B757 will add capacity to EWR from Island and UA rotes and EI
will be looked at jointly in line with a view to build on partnership and
lessons learnt on WAS MAD service as I said strategic growth sustainable and has
to be profitable from day one
Hangar6, I'm confused maybe I missed something, you said earlier, that EI will:

likely go EWR for extra flights as a few posters have copped that JFK terminal 5
is out of the question
So you are saying that EI will serve EWR again, now with 757. What has UA flying BFS to EWR got to do with EI, since EI dont fly to either airports at present. And in the context of lessons learned on IAD MAD I cannot see the linkage, EI operated the route on behalf of UA with a 330, which has now ended....
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Old 24th Feb 2013, 17:15
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I'd say we'll be seeing plenty Titan 757's at Dublin and Shannon, whatever about Cork as EI will need cover if these aircraft go tech.
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 00:22
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Terminal 5 at JFK does not rule out anything. T5i (an international wing) is being built which could accomodate flights from Non CBP airports.
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 10:23
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What were the timings of the DUB-SFO flight when it operated back in 2007 or whatever? How long were the scheduled block times? (LHR-SFO is just under 11 hours so I'm guessing DUB-SFO would be perhaps 10 hours 30 minutes?)
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 10:34
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When it first launched the flights departed DUB at 09.15 and arrived in DUB at 08.15. So 11 hours. They then changed to a lather departure/arrival in DUB but not sure if the layovers were any longer.

Last edited by EI-A330-300; 25th Feb 2013 at 10:35.
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 11:51
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What were the timings of the DUB-SFO flight when it operated back in 2007 or whatever? How long were the scheduled block times?
A/C - A332:

EI147 DUB-SFO 0950/1250 M-W-F-S 11hrs 00mins
EI146 SFO-DUB 1500/0915 M-W-F-S 10hrs 15mins*

*Arrived the following day.
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 20:08
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Thanks guys!
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 21:51
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Interesting times and good to see EI going for strategic growth
EI will
do 2x daily to. ORD BOS NYC from DUB year round , Novair Scandinavia will take
a 330 and further news on other winter plans

EI will likely go EWR for
extra flights as a few posters have copped that JFK terminal 5 is out of the
question of course this does rule Cork out for nw but brings in Bfs as well as
SNn interesting and of course close parter UA will be party to the plans
The idea that EI will go 2x daily year round on ORD/BOS/JFK would rule out the 757 increasing SNN-JFK/BOS, as only 3 aircraft are being sourced.

EI wont offer any Ireland-Newark flights; any extra flights to New York will be to JFK. It isnt cost effective to split operations between EWR and JFK.

Other forums are saying the 757's are ex Finnair, so are about 12 years old, but are in an all economy layout. It should be interesting to see what layout EI will equip these aircraft with!

Purely speculation, but ive heard the 3x 757s will operate with 2 aircraft being based in SNN for SNN-JFK and SNN-BOS, and the 3rd aircraft operating DUB-YYZ 4 weekly, and either DUB-ORD or DUB-JFK.

Removing the 330 from Shannon, and reducing ORD to a daily 330 operation, would free up 1.5 330's, as mentioned by other posters, which I would hope, would be used to launch West Coast!

The 757s operating from SNN, would have a decent amount of ground time in SNN, BOS and JFK, which means that with some schedule changes, they could easily utilise one of the aircraft on SNN-FAO next summer, or try SNN-AGP
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 23:39
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Hmmmm I didn't know EI had actually gone as far as actually evaluating 752s in the past. Was that around the time they signed the (very disadvantageous) leases on the 763s?

C
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Old 25th Feb 2013, 23:47
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3x757....a chap mentioned to me that it was 4?!

Is it an A333 or A332 being freed up?
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Old 26th Feb 2013, 06:46
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1.5 a330s is the magic figure required for west coast ops so a lot of the speculation re 757s could be spot on.
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Old 26th Feb 2013, 06:49
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I wonder if they are considering any non North American mid/long haul with this capacity? Somewhere like Moscow, Cairo or even Asia.

I guess the demand for the extra long haul is the short haul feed so probably not. I wonder would they look at IAD again in partnership with UA. UA operate their existing 4x week and EI compliment it with 3x on a code share.
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Old 26th Feb 2013, 08:16
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IAD

Anecdotedly I've flown DUB-IAD a few times with UA and always seemed good loads (of course no indication of profitability but better than empty ) But I'm not sure there is enough traffic between the two capitals to merit a year around daily service.
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