Yes EI have made some bad fleet decisions, however the B747 was only bad in light of the mid 70's Oil Crisis. And EI very creatively managed to tap into the leasing market to offset the seasonality of the Irish market.
SNN was always a political issue. EI didn't want to go through there but were forced to stick with. Purely from an aircrft cycle point of view it wasn't good for EI. A smaller aircraft should ahve been sourced in the late 80's/early 90's.
Remember the furore when EI pulled the SNN-LHR flights in favour of BFS-LHR? (Personally I thought that was a short sighted decision by an incapable CEO, reduction perhaps,but abandonment no)
EI pulling out of SNN over the winter was because they finally had a CEO who was willing to make a stand. It showed the SNN did not have an eternal 'right' to have T/A ops. SNN winter Ops gave always been bad. (In fact before Mueller arrived the 2 SNN routes were losing 1m a year each) The adjustment in schedule to a 3/4 mix has allowed EI to keep both routes at high load factor.
Now lets look at the options: 14X B757= 2300 weekly seats, 7 x A330 = 1900 seats. From the SNN POV 2x B757's are a lot better, thats 1 A330 freed up.
On top of that EI shall codeshare on the UA SNN-ORD route,so EI still keep access to 3 T/A routes from SNN
2 more B757s perhaps. 1 can launch DUB-YYZ. This of course would leach some pax from the DUB-ORD route. That could allow a reduction in frequency on this route, (maybe back to 7 weekly) thus freeing up a partial A330.....
Now we suddenly have 1.5 A330 available for the EI fleet planning Dept in S14. I know when I would want to sent it.......SFO. Whether that is cost effective pre-A350, well only the EI analysts can answer that.
As for the EY option, again I will scoff at the possibility of EI launching DUB-DXB. I would however see a market for EY/EI transfer potential on AUH-DUB-BOS/YYZ.
Unfortunately for ORK I feel the the B757 while being the perect aircraft is not an option in EI hands. 2 aircraft in SNN, 1 in DUB, maybe another in ORK for ORK-JFK. Not a good position for Fleet Planning/Flight Operations.
What happens when 1 goes tech? Will EI cancel the lucrative core routes from SNN and DUB, or will they transfer ORK pax up to SNN/DUB and use the "Cork B757" to cover the tech aircraft? I would bet on the later.
And ORK currently has an pretty nice shorthaul network, I agree that T/A Ops may reduce S/H pax numbers. The lack of CBP would hinder ORK-JFK viability. Operating into 2 terminals with only 1 of 3-4 daily flights is not a smart move.
And I cannot see the US Govt setting up CBP for less then 1000 pax per week, this prevents EI trying to use ORK as a transfer point for UK regional traffic.