Aer Lingus - 6
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: UK
Posts: 471
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Oh but BE will be competing with FR ? Flybe, the airline in huge financial troubles and with hardly any brand recognition on the republic ? Should do well...
...and really, do we consider BE to be in 'huge' financial troubles?? Lets not over exaggerate...sure they are forecast to make losses in the current year but even at £15m, this is still only 2% of their annual turnover. Believe me, that's not a big loss for an airline - ask AF about Cityjet or LH about BMI.
Last edited by JobsaGoodun; 6th Feb 2013 at 19:24.
Not sure of the desperation of FR but definitely desperation of users on PPRuNe.....
Pre tax profit dropped by 51% year on year and effectively lost same in Q4 as they did in Q4 2011. Its taking 1.9% more in Revenue as it was in 2008.
As for idea of price at €1.30, reason its at that is because of previous offer has set that as a base.
Based on what you will see in a standard takeover, a price is offered which the share moves at or close to often above in the hope of a higher price, pretty often a second offer made at a higher price to encourage even more acceptance. Nobody offers best price straight away.
I guess issue shareholders will need to consider is that Ryanair potential new offer is keeping the share price at its current level, dividend yield is 3% (Dividend / Share Price) on existing price or about the same as AIB will give you in Ireland in a desposit account but your money is safe in the bank.
But if you bought at €2.20 at float will it ever reach that again or if offer is rejected will share price crash below €1 and you never get your money back.
So either you hold on hoping capital growth above €2.20................could be a while, dividends get a lot better......doubtful or you take what you can get now and get 3% in the bank.
Everything is possible BUT if was undervaluing as much as people think then share price would have passed €1.30 a long time ago.
IF a bid is allowed to go ahead then it will be the Hedge funds and Institutions who have block holdings who will be the king makers ..................depends on how much profit they will make.
But then again with pension deficit ruling not yet been made it makes it interesting how Aer Lingus could fund a €500 pension deficit if court decides that is what its liability is.
Pre tax profit dropped by 51% year on year and effectively lost same in Q4 as they did in Q4 2011. Its taking 1.9% more in Revenue as it was in 2008.
As for idea of price at €1.30, reason its at that is because of previous offer has set that as a base.
Based on what you will see in a standard takeover, a price is offered which the share moves at or close to often above in the hope of a higher price, pretty often a second offer made at a higher price to encourage even more acceptance. Nobody offers best price straight away.
I guess issue shareholders will need to consider is that Ryanair potential new offer is keeping the share price at its current level, dividend yield is 3% (Dividend / Share Price) on existing price or about the same as AIB will give you in Ireland in a desposit account but your money is safe in the bank.
But if you bought at €2.20 at float will it ever reach that again or if offer is rejected will share price crash below €1 and you never get your money back.
So either you hold on hoping capital growth above €2.20................could be a while, dividends get a lot better......doubtful or you take what you can get now and get 3% in the bank.
Everything is possible BUT if was undervaluing as much as people think then share price would have passed €1.30 a long time ago.
IF a bid is allowed to go ahead then it will be the Hedge funds and Institutions who have block holdings who will be the king makers ..................depends on how much profit they will make.
But then again with pension deficit ruling not yet been made it makes it interesting how Aer Lingus could fund a €500 pension deficit if court decides that is what its liability is.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Dublin
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: in a house
Posts: 96
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well it shows that the FR shareholding has artificial deflated the EI share price.......it could however be institutional investors buying in on the chance that FR will offer 1.50 or more if given the go ahead. Does anyone know can they increase their bid?
Didn't the EI CEO state last year that based on assets/slots/cash reserves that EI was actually worth 1.70. Of course this is the same for many companies, share value is a reflection of the level of trading and the attractiveness of the stock portfolio.
I know the 1st bid was stopped, the 2nd was withdrawn before it could be closed/ended, this is the 3rd attempt and we will soon see how this pans out. I believe FR have a one final shot if this bid is shut down.
Didn't the EI CEO state last year that based on assets/slots/cash reserves that EI was actually worth 1.70. Of course this is the same for many companies, share value is a reflection of the level of trading and the attractiveness of the stock portfolio.
I know the 1st bid was stopped, the 2nd was withdrawn before it could be closed/ended, this is the 3rd attempt and we will soon see how this pans out. I believe FR have a one final shot if this bid is shut down.
Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?
Well it shows that the FR shareholding has artificial deflated the EI share price.......it could however be institutional investors buying in on the chance that FR will offer 1.50 or more if given the go ahead. Does anyone know can they increase their bid?
Didn't the EI CEO state last year that based on assets/slots/cash reserves that EI was actually worth 1.70. Of course this is the same for many companies, share value is a reflection of the level of trading and the attractiveness of the stock portfolio.
I know the 1st bid was stopped, the 2nd was withdrawn before it could be closed/ended, this is the 3rd attempt and we will soon see how this pans out. I believe FR have a one final shot if this bid is shut down.
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: in a house
Posts: 96
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Nice selective quoting racedo.
I mentioned the quote from Mueller and also added the bit about "this could apply to any company"
And the last loss published by EI was in mid 2010, can't see that affecting the recent shareprice. The pension issue is a factor, I think the LC issued a proposal on that so it should be clarified in the next couple months. And the share price was down before the pension issue became public.
I was trying to be balanced...you should try it.
Now back on topic.......as you say the bid lapsed when the EU got involved. I was of the opinion that this EU investigation was of the 1.30 bid.
Does this mean FR must make another public bid if given the go-ahead?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?
I mentioned the quote from Mueller and also added the bit about "this could apply to any company"
And the last loss published by EI was in mid 2010, can't see that affecting the recent shareprice. The pension issue is a factor, I think the LC issued a proposal on that so it should be clarified in the next couple months. And the share price was down before the pension issue became public.
I was trying to be balanced...you should try it.
Now back on topic.......as you say the bid lapsed when the EU got involved. I was of the opinion that this EU investigation was of the 1.30 bid.
Does this mean FR must make another public bid if given the go-ahead?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?
Last edited by DollarBill; 8th Feb 2013 at 20:34.
And the last loss published by EI was in mid 2010, can't see that affecting the recent shareprice. The pension issue is a factor, I think the LC issued a proposal on that so it should be clarified in the next couple months. And the share price was down before the pension issue became public.
Does this mean FR must make another public bid if given the go-ahead?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?
Does this mean that if this happens the subsequent bid (at whatever price) will be the 3rd permitted under Irish regs?
IF they bid they can bid at any price they wish, extend the deadline if they fail to get 50.00001% and increase the offer price which is generally the norm in a hostile takeover. Based on historic hostile bids for companies I would expect to see all three.
Also based on historic hostile takeovers I would expect that Hedge funds / Investors have already bought up sizeable blocks for a quick profit.
Once you get 50.00001% you in control and while people can hold onto shares it is pretty pointless.
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Noo Yoik
Posts: 126
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Obviously some heavy trading going on- is there any chance it could be Ryanair looking to increase their stake before the decision? Maybe EI buying back some shares or EY? I presume.if the price stays this high EI's shareholders would reject the bid?
If the share price is above the FR offer of 1.30 why would a shareholder sell for less than market value, duh?
Of course he'll have to improve the offer, as I said all along! It was a joke bid - a stalking horse. He knew the EU would get involved as soon as he made an offer, and his offer would expire leaving the option to alter it later if he got approval.
But if the EU give him permission - unlikely though it is - he'll need to make a significant move to twist the Irish Governments reluctant arm.
I hope none of you sold below 1.30?
You swallowed Racedos propaganda!?
Oh dear.... should know by now.... Must sting a bit.....
When FRs gone the EI share price will strengthen further as other interested parties start to show their hand. Mark my word, I've been right all along....
"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"
Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.
Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.
If you are going to comment on Aer Lingus financials at least read what they have paid their Finance team and PR team to produce.
If the share price is above the FR offer of 1.30 why would a shareholder sell for less than market value, duh?
As to why a Shareholder would take a lower price ?
Well if he/she/it felt that once a bid was unsucessful the share price would collapse then better to take what is on offer now rather than watch it all collapse. A reason not to would be to hold on for an improved offer which as indicated in previous post is pretty routine in hostile takeovers.
Of course he'll have to improve the offer, as I said all along! It was a joke bid - a stalking horse. He knew the EU would get involved as soon as he made an offer, and his offer would expire leaving the option to alter it later if he got approval.
But if the EU give him permission - unlikely though it is - he'll need to make a significant move to twist the Irish Governments reluctant arm.
As for Irish Govt.......IF someone holds 50.0001% then their shareholding is irrelevant.
A minority shareholding can do little.
When FRs gone the EI share price will strengthen further as other interested parties start to show their hand. Mark my word, I've been right all along....