Not sure of the desperation of FR but definitely desperation of users on PPRuNe.....
Pre tax profit dropped by 51% year on year and effectively lost same in Q4 as they did in Q4 2011. Its taking 1.9% more in Revenue as it was in 2008.
As for idea of price at €1.30, reason its at that is because of previous offer has set that as a base.
Based on what you will see in a standard takeover, a price is offered which the share moves at or close to often above in the hope of a higher price, pretty often a second offer made at a higher price to encourage even more acceptance. Nobody offers best price straight away.
I guess issue shareholders will need to consider is that Ryanair potential new offer is keeping the share price at its current level, dividend yield is 3% (Dividend / Share Price) on existing price or about the same as AIB will give you in Ireland in a desposit account but your money is safe in the bank.
But if you bought at €2.20 at float will it ever reach that again or if offer is rejected will share price crash below €1 and you never get your money back.
So either you hold on hoping capital growth above €2.20................could be a while, dividends get a lot better......doubtful or you take what you can get now and get 3% in the bank.
Everything is possible BUT if was undervaluing as much as people think then share price would have passed €1.30 a long time ago.
IF a bid is allowed to go ahead then it will be the Hedge funds and Institutions who have block holdings who will be the king makers ..................depends on how much profit they will make.
But then again with pension deficit ruling not yet been made it makes it interesting how Aer Lingus could fund a €500 pension deficit if court decides that is what its liability is.