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Old 26th Jan 2015, 13:28
  #2561 (permalink)  
 
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all those slots at LHR

Connectivity to DUB will fall as it has to all the UK domestic airports as BA use the slots for more profitable long haul

Aer Lingus basically reduced to a European only carrier
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 15:14
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I understand the slots only to be worth about a 35% of the total txn value. Couldn't they obtain those cheaper from another airline ? Chances are they will have to give some of those up to ?

Given that EI has a profitable business model (unlike BD which was bust when BA bought them) why not try and develop/expand esp from UK regions (via EIR) without having to touch LHR.

I think BA now has the opportunity to free up slots at LHR without needing EI if this were their strategy. They could pass the slots they use to BCN/MAD/PMI (none slot constrained). Reduce BA frequency to DUBBHD and pass to EI using larger aircraft. LBA ex LHR is undoubtedly a slot sitter (3 per day).

So I think as an enlarged IAG group with the three airlines they have flexibility to use different aircraft type or reduce route capacity (and drive up yield) but keep brand presence on all.

I can't believe with all capacity ex LON to DUB/BHD that yield can be that brilliant ?

And WW is a proud Irishman !

Just my two penneth.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 16:15
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Much of the takeover discussion is about the EI DUB-LHR route and its associated slots. It appears that this route is considered to be of “vital” connectivity importance to Ireland and must be retained. So, let’s deal with that.

At this moment there is competition on this route between two airlines EI and BA. If the takeover goes through there will be a new set of circumstances to be dealt with. Whatever scenario evolves of the three indicated below the one thing that is sure is that, since they are now part of the same group, they would be no longer in competition with one another.

1.Will both EI and BA both continue to operate the route with the same frequency as they now do continuing to use their own aircraft?

2.Will each airline reduce its quota of flights and continue to use their own aircraft?

3.Will one of them drop out and leave the other to operate the route with their own aircraft?

In the case of (1) and (2) it would seem likely that they would consolidate the fares into one structure as, otherwise, IAG would be in competition with itself. In effect, we are back to something akin to the cartel days of yore.

One way or the other we now have a situation whereby IAG will have a monopoly on this “vital” route and can charge what they like. To be consistent the authorities cannot allow that situation to continue and must insist on having a certain number of slots freed for someone else to use to offer competition. But, and it’s a big but, who is likely to want to take them?

FR has said before that they won’t do LHR but is it possible that IAG has done a deal behind the scenes? Perhaps something similar to that which FR themselves concocted for their third bid for EI. If not and no others are interested we are left with a Catch-22.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 17:55
  #2564 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
why would IAG want to build long haul from Dublin? It can only be done by feeding in more peopel from the UK - which will cut into BA's LHR hub

I think the Irish authorities would be mad to agree to this
Dublin Airport has US Customs & Immigration pre-clearance, the only airport in Europe with that facility. Very attractive selling point - makes entering the US nearly painless, since there is no queuing after landing. I tested this last month: walked off a plane in Philadelphia, straight on to the domestic concourse, and could have made my connection in 10 minutes if necessary.

For example: if you're flying to the USA from anywhere in the UK outside London, DUB would be a much more attractive option than LHR.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 18:26
  #2565 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair + Aer Lingus would have better prospects for traffic at DUB than IAG + Aer Lingus and why wouldn't FR want to tap into transatlantic business. They probably provide the vast majority of PAX transiting through DUB on their way to the US as it is.


WW has already stated he doubts LHR will ever have a third runway so expansion there is capped and slots cherished. Slots are why he needs EI.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 18:32
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They probably provide the vast majority of PAX transiting through DUB on their way to the US as it is.
How do you conclude this?
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 18:53
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CSO database of passenger movements, direction, foreign airport and month. Also see aviation statistics.


Gives you better info on how well EK and EY are doing out of DUB that the DAA do.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 19:26
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With FR excess baggage charges it really make their product to transit passengers un appealing as it usually matches EI in the end and their schedules don't facilitate a huge amount of transit.

Making a connecting after arriving in DUB at 05.15 is tight as FR main flights depart between 06.00-06.40 when you consider immigration, terminal transfer, check in (40 min before flight), T1 security and 10-15 walk to gate. Apart from some UK passengers I expect it is very small.

Now your not going to come back and say T/A don't bring checked baggage are u?
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 20:34
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all those slots at LHR

Connectivity to DUB will fall as it has to all the UK domestic airports as BA use the slots for more profitable long haul

Aer Lingus basically reduced to a European only carrier
For sure some slots will be released as EI/BA combine schedules on LHR-DUB but it's a nonsense to say that IAG is engaged in a pure slot grabbing exercise.

BA did not take Iberia's LHR slots when IAG was formed. It would entirely counter-productive to IAG's strategy to restrict links between IAG hubs. Iberia also kept its own North American routes post IAG.

Also, EI's LHR slot portfolio isn't that interesting as far as long-haul is concerned. It has no arrival slots before 8am and arrival slots late in the day are of no use for long-haul.

And since IAG acquired bmi, BA's connections to the UK regions have improved. It maintained Belfast and opened up Leeds Bradford. The latter was a clear move to take traffic from KLM and is likely to also be behind IAG's thinking with EI and DUB.

For all the talk of long-haul expansion, BA says it needs to maintain a ratio of 1/3 long-haul and 2/3 short-haul at LHR for network optimisation.

I also don't believe for a moment IAG will close down EI's long-haul network.

Access to the Avios FFP base in Europe and American Airlines AAdvantage FFP base in the US will give EI a huge boost. As will access to AA and BA's corporate accounts in the transatlantic joint-venture. That is huge scope to improve revenue and margin.
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 21:47
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The board are recommending the takeover....
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Old 26th Jan 2015, 23:39
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The board are recommending the takeover....
Board discussion............
Another takeover attempt , haven't we said NO NO NO already to that Ryanair fecker, ...............
er Chairman its not from Ryanair
Not from Ryanair...... are you sure
Yes Chairman...
In which case it must be a Yes
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 00:48
  #2572 (permalink)  
 
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I'm going to have to make a comedy sketch out of that one.
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 07:40
  #2573 (permalink)  
 
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Funny Racedo. I honestly think this is good news for EI. Just like IB and VY they have optimized costs and sent them on a strategy for growth.
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 07:44
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The Aer Lingus board has formally recommended the bid and IAG has confirmed Aer Lingus will join the Oneworld alliance and AA/BA/AY/IB joint venture if Aer Lingus becomes part of IAG.

It is highly unlikely IAG would do that if just wanted to reduce Aer Lingus to short-haul only.
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 09:18
  #2575 (permalink)  
 
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Aer Lingus to remain separate operating entity!

More interesting details!


Aer Lingus 'willing to recommend IAG offer' - RTÉ News
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 09:45
  #2576 (permalink)  
 
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Being in Oneworld wasn't exactly a huge boon last time they were in it.

How will this effect the new joint ventures with UA on IAD, and in particular ORD given AA compete with both EI and UA on the route now?
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 10:16
  #2577 (permalink)  
 
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Little Red and Beyond

Given that EI are currently operating the Little Red routes and that they have shown an interest in continuing the EDI/ABZ/LHR service. They also have two a/c on lease for a further two years.

It is conceivable that EI may continue to operate these services as a feeder for BA or as a t/a feed for Dublin, ie LHR-EDI-DUB & DUB-EDI-LHR.

The set up work is already done, so it may be worth a try!
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 11:14
  #2578 (permalink)  
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Irish Opposition party Fianna Fáil are against the sale, worried about the landing rights. Well, they are the Opposition, so I suppose they wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't Oppose.
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 12:34
  #2579 (permalink)  
 
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Being in Oneworld wasn't exactly a huge boon last time they were in it.
You can't compare Oneworld then to today.

Back in 2007 there was no anti-trust immunity with AA and very limited co-operation in terms if codesharing.

Being in the AA/BA joint venture will allow for full codesharing across AA's domestic network (much expanded post the merger with US Airways, full FFP reciprocal recognition, joint scheduling and access to AA and BA corporate accounts.
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Old 27th Jan 2015, 13:41
  #2580 (permalink)  
 
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Epsomdog, I'm sure most of the 2 million + passengers on the DUB / LHR route would love to take the scenic route via EDI.
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