Much of the takeover discussion is about the EI DUB-LHR route and its associated slots. It appears that this route is considered to be of “vital” connectivity importance to Ireland and must be retained. So, let’s deal with that.
At this moment there is competition on this route between two airlines EI and BA. If the takeover goes through there will be a new set of circumstances to be dealt with. Whatever scenario evolves of the three indicated below the one thing that is sure is that, since they are now part of the same group, they would be no longer in competition with one another.
1.Will both EI and BA both continue to operate the route with the same frequency as they now do continuing to use their own aircraft?
2.Will each airline reduce its quota of flights and continue to use their own aircraft?
3.Will one of them drop out and leave the other to operate the route with their own aircraft?
In the case of (1) and (2) it would seem likely that they would consolidate the fares into one structure as, otherwise, IAG would be in competition with itself. In effect, we are back to something akin to the cartel days of yore.
One way or the other we now have a situation whereby IAG will have a monopoly on this “vital” route and can charge what they like. To be consistent the authorities cannot allow that situation to continue and must insist on having a certain number of slots freed for someone else to use to offer competition. But, and it’s a big but, who is likely to want to take them?
FR has said before that they won’t do LHR but is it possible that IAG has done a deal behind the scenes? Perhaps something similar to that which FR themselves concocted for their third bid for EI. If not and no others are interested we are left with a Catch-22.