Aer Lingus - 6

[Jack1985]

Racedo,

A year of standing still.

What rubbish? Let's look at facts instead of bold statements:

• Total revenue up 2.3% year on year with average fare revenue per seat up 2.0%
• Effective network capacity management resulted in load factor climbing 0.7 points to 78.4% with increases achieved on both short and long haul services
• Very strong long haul performance with revenue up 11.1%, passengers numbers up 12.2% and load factor up 0.6 points on increased capacity of 11.6%
• Short haul revenue down 3.3% due to extremely good weather in Ireland and Northern Europe in the peak Summer period and increasingly competitive pricing environment in Q3 and Q4 2013. Capacity managed tightly to protect margins
• Operating profit, before net exceptional items, of €61.1 million is in line with stated guidance
• Continued balance sheet strength: gross cash of €897.4 million at year end and an 11.4% increase in net cash to €419.8 million
• Proposed dividend of four cent per share for 2013 is in line with prior year. Expected maintaining of dividends at this annual level for the foreseeable future.

As has been pointed out the introduction of the Cost Optimisation and Revenue Excellence (CORE) programme will drive down costs by a further €30m over the next financial 2 years by driving 3 parameters;

• Cost and business optimisation.
• Enhancing revenues by focusing on merchandising, retail revenue and business-to-customer distribution system.
• Further improvements in staff engagement, training, flexibility and productivity.

Looking at the operations side of Aer Lingus in 2013;

• Profitable expansion of L/H operations through the re-deployment of an additional A330 aircraft allowing an increase in frequency on Dublin to Boston and Chicago services. This additional capacity was fully sold.
• Successful launch of contract flying business: “Little Red” domestic UK services on behalf of Virgin Atlantic and L/H service from Scandinavia to the Caribbean for the tour operator Novair.
• New and expanded codeshare agreements with United Airlines and Air Canada.
• New retail initiatives such as pre-order, enhanced and refreshed meal offerings on short haul and long haul services, wi-fi on our transatlantic services and new checked baggage options.
• Planned L/H expansion in 2014 with new services to Toronto and San Francisco and increased frequency on services from Shannon to Boston and New York. Seat capacity up by 20% facilitated by the damp lease of three Boeing 757 aircraft from ASL Aviation Group.

Statistics side of 2014,

An increase in net cash of 11.4% from 376.9m to 419.8m. Decrease in gross bebt by 10.2%. As well as this revenue, free cash flow, AFRPS and AFRPP are all up.

In a year where S/H demand dropped for all S/H operators in Ireland/UK during the latter stages of 2013, this is an excellent result in performance.

Aer Lingus issued one profit warning, its largest competitor had to issue two and change its business model. Solid performance.

Regarding the pressing issues, doing the rounds now that SIPTU bosses are more or less set on the new pension plan, those with plus 30 years of service pensions are being scrutinised as we speak. With regards the gov intervening in any such dispute which is far from guaranteed, not a chance will it happen - This the same gov which is prancing on egg shells with recent revelations, intervening in a public company's dispute regardless of its holding would be union suicide.

It does of course also say that nothing has been included in respect of Pilot Scheme

More or less has been sorted, negotiations took place pre-xmas, final negotiations taking place any day now - all parties were in agreement at the last meeting.

I'll finish with this, 2013 was challenging and Aer Lingus met the challenge head-on - As it will do in 2014. Staff and Management are in agreement more costs can be cut, and they will - The airline still operates with some of the highest margins per seat in Europe. The argument Racedo is trying to present is nonsensical and honestly nothing more then rubbish, with the usual post ''standing still'' blah blah blah, it's as if you invested a lot with your buddy's in FR at the same time. I'd hate to see his views on a successful airline, oh wait...

[mart901]

You have to hand it to racedo, he is at least consistent in his unwaivering support of the airline that managed last year to be voted the worst for customer service even when put in a category for big brands, not just airlines, worse even than energy companies whose names are like mud currently. It was interesting talking to a client recently in a major travel company who won't sell FR seats as part of their packages because its deemed bad for business. The very business model changes Jack1985 was referring to are a mimick of EZY and EI, their two most despised rivals.

It might be worth noting EI is one of the few profitable airlines in Europe currently and manages to be so relatively independently and without global alliance.

[racedo]

All very well Jack but how again are they going to fund this €140 million for one pension scheme and whatever is required for the other.

€60 million profit and it being clear that this year will be a tough one to follow.

[Jack1985]

It might be worth noting EI is one of the few profitable airlines in Europe currently and manages to be so relatively independently and without global alliance.

Precisely. Just an update, unions will meet with the DAA Wednesday afternoon and with Aer Lingus Thursday afternoon.

All very well Jack but how again are they going to fund this €140 million for one pension scheme and whatever is required for the other.

I have no idea what there plans are to fund the €140m, but with large and growing cash reserves I'm sure management will weigh up the pro's and con's to touching that ~ For the pilots, it seems legal advice given to Aer Lingus and to IALPA by its own legal team, show little liability for Aer Lingus. At the same time, Aer Lingus won't leave its pilots high and dry so there will be compromise but I understand it will not involve financial contribution on behalf of Aer Lingus.

[MCDU2]

I love it how Racedo never answers a question nor counters when a negative fact is pointed out about his employer.

Jack, the pilot scheme is actually in quite good shape. The pain was taken a few years ago when it was de risked and employee contributions were increased to 11%. The AL legal advice is always that AL has no liability. This has to be the case from ALs and its advisors point of view. Consider the implications if someone actually came out and said that AL was or could be liable. There would be law suits galore beteem the scheme, all the advisors, lawyers plus the auditors. Counter suits left right and centre. If you think the raft of "Bertie" tribunals cost a lot then think again. Mind you it would be a win win for the legal profession!

[Angry Rebel]

How will they fund it? If that is the best Racedo can offer then best not to feed the troll....

They have €897m in gross cash of which none seems to be restricted and when you deduct debt they still have €420m. They could write a cheque in the morning.

If they wanted to maintain current cash reserves (e.g. to fund upcoming PDPs or fund cost takeout programmes) they would have a queue of banks around the back of H6 offering them debt of €140m based on €60m of profit and €420m of net cash in the bank.

[VanBosh]

So in the coming weeks we will see the expansion to two new NA destinations. What are people's thoughts on how ambitious EI are in terms of future growth? Will they expand again next year or will they give it a year or two? Which routes would be next on their list, I think looking at gaps from Ireland, possibly somewhere in Texas or Miami or perhaps a return to LAX but Sfo might delay that. Would they venture to Mexico?

[Una Due Tfc]

With the new routes EI's long haul aircraft are maxed out, won't be any spare capacity until the A350s arrive, or they lease some more aircraft, and I think Mr. Mueller knows the dangers of expanding too quickly.

[Jack1985]

So in the coming weeks we will see the expansion to two new NA destinations. What are people's thoughts on how ambitious EI are in terms of future growth? Will they expand again next year or will they give it a year or two? Which routes would be next on their list, I think looking at gaps from Ireland, possibly somewhere in Texas or Miami or perhaps a return to LAX but Sfo might delay that. Would they venture to Mexico?

I'd love to see Los Angeles back, but I think they'd give SFO a few years before thinking of further West Coast expansion. Miami and Texas definitely are contenders but the key to Aer Lingus expansion in the last few years has been weighing up capacity against the Irish diaspora in the States and actual demand, maybe even St. Louis? untapped market potential which I think if you through a 757 on could earn you some money especially with there level of connections now ex-DUB.

With the new routes EI's long haul aircraft are maxed out, won't be any spare capacity until the A350s arrive, or they lease some more aircraft, and I think Mr. Mueller knows the dangers of expanding too quickly.

To be fair so far we've seen increases of upwards of 10% the last two years in Long/Haul, many would regard that as massive expansion as would I.

[VanBosh]

Would they try taking some of the Irish diaspora from US at PHL I wonder.

[elle may clampit]

Sure hope the diaspora don't get bored visiting - still one resident leaving Irish shores for far off fields every five mins according to Gov stats

[Jack1985]

Sure hope the diaspora don't get bored visiting

Ah here, not a chance its the land of green grass, flooding, rain and missing leprechauns stashed full of badly needed cash.

[EI-A330-300]

Don't think there will be much further L/H growth, they will let the market settle in 2015, at least bookings for the new routes are where they expected and overall bookings in 2014 are up. They might add something in 2016 or 17. Wouldn't worry about no A350's there current A330 fleet is very young apart from 1 or 2 of the 7 aircraft and EY will have free A330's over the next while. They have A380 and 787's coming into their fleet from lather this year and of course there is lots of leases possible.

Main aim of EI is to increase LF's within current capacity where possible.


Just on the possible strike action, SIPTU have just announced their own employees must take a 20% cut in pensions to address their own 103 million hole. The irony of it......

[Jack1985]

Agree FY15 could be a stability year however with the level
of growth from all parties in all long haul markets I wouldn't be surprised to see a lease and further announcement (just sayin')

Regards the last part of your post A330, indeed the absolute irony haha - be more in there interest to give us all a years free membership.

[Jack1985]

EI-LBT 3rd 757 now rolled out as ''St. Brendan'' looking spectacular, heading for its cabin fit now.

[Sober Lark]

Grown tired of the Aer Lingus adverts for seat sales that we all know are not really a sale?

Well here's a tip: Aer Lingus always seem to have a strike pending so all you do is wait until they serve notice and hey presto you get a real seat sale offer.

[EI-A330-300]

They are the same as Ryanair when advertising.

Saved 120 euro for two with EI over FR for thy same flights on same day when I booked earlier. Does not include baggage so I would save even further with EI.

[stab3.5up]

I think aer lingus seat sales are the DFS of the airline world.

[Jack1985]

All-out strike notice given to Aer Lingus and the DAA between 5am and 9 am on Friday 14th March 2014. It is more then probable disruptions will be incurred by all airlines on that date and within those times. Management at Aer Lingus now requesting a second meeting with SIPTU officials to revert this possible IR dispute, DAA will follow.

[stab3.5up]

Like all Aer Lingus stikes it will all be called of 48hrs before. They never go on strike. All talk and no trousers