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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 12:21
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Some of them were due for delivery in October....
Ryanair's half year is from April to September.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 14:19
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When was the decision made to defer delivery.....?
Completely and utterly irrelevant as defering a decision for delivery supposedly in second half of year (if that is what occurred) has no relevance to first half year results.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 14:26
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ASFKAP wrote : "Some of them were due for delivery in October...."

And indeed, three were last Friday (and three a couple of weeks earlier IIRC) - and all have entered service this week, with two frames stood down. A recent report on an e-mail list compared Renton to Stansted with a number of FR aircraft undertaking their test flights.

MD
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 16:32
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In just the half year
Our fuel bill rose by 44% to €660m due to the increased level of activity and higher prices.
That is an extra 200 million euros for the summer. They will fly a lot less in the winter but still face a big hike in fuel costs.

They are also returning planes to leaser instead of selling the ones they own. This reduce the price they can get for the ones they own later.

It also is clear they will find it impossble to have +12% fares in the winter.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 17:16
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Possibly a slight half year profit but undoubtedly a reduction in overall profits which combined with the increase in unit costs, fuel, and average fares puts a whole different slant on yesterdays figures, especially with the fact that some of Ryanair's main competitors are also starting to show signs of recovery in some areas.
ASFKAP, you miss the point. I assume you're aware that the aircraft wouldn't have been paid for up front even if they had been delivered in H1 - being able to do so and still report a profit is impressive though. In reality, even if they took delivery of 8 aircraft on April 1st the impact on the current half year's profit wouldn't have exceeded €10m (assuming they're not needed and sitting on the ground). So now we have a €442 million profit for H1 - I'd hardly call that a 'whole different slant on yesterday's figures'.

That is an extra 200 million euros for the summer. They will fly a lot less in the winter but still face a big hike in fuel costs.
An extra €200m and still able to report €452m profit. Their per unit winter fuel costs will be broadly the same as H1 (obviously less overall due to less flights overall) given that 90% of Q3 is hedged at $730pmt and 90% of Q4 at $745pmt.

It also is clear they will find it impossble to have +12% fares in the winter.
It's also impossible (or at least highly improbable) that they will have +40% fares this winter. Or that they will carry 300 million passengers. Given that they haven't targeted either of these figures then who cares? Based on the +12% H1 increase and Q3 forward bookings, full year yield increase is expected to be at the upper end of the +5% to +10% range they previously guided.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 17:30
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Are you suggesting that Ryanair can make more money by 'not' flying their aircraft than they can by flying them.....?
Now you have it ASFKAP! Aviation is a seasonal business, there's a significant possibility that flying any more aircraft than they have currently scheduled for the winter would result in a lower full year profit. Therefore not flying some aircraft, rather than flying them, will in fact help improve profits!
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 20:16
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That is an extra 200 million euros for the summer. They will fly a lot less in the winter but still face a big hike in fuel costs.
So if they fly less in the winter how will they face a big hike in fuel prices ?

I could be wrong BUT when an aircraft is on the ground with no engines running the fuel burn rate is exceedingly low but you no doubt will say something differently.

They are also returning planes to leaser instead of selling the ones they own. This reduce the price they can get for the ones they own later.
RBS arm backing Ryanair's aircraft deal - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

Why would it be as all they are doing is keeping to the terms of agreements signed in 2003 with RBS Aviation Capitol.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 21:35
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Agreed - an aircraft that isn't flying won't generate any revenue. Indeed it will cost money sitting around. However if the revenue you generate from flying it is less than the extra direct operating costs incurred through flying then it may be more finacially prudent to leave it on the ground.

A glass half full person might say this makes better profits over the year.
A glass half empty person might prefer to say you are just making less of a loss.
Both arguably are correct!
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 23:02
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Leeds Bradford Summer 2011

Summer 2011 now out for most destinations for Leeds Bradford and it looks as though there will be a 3rd based aircraft at Leeds Bradford for Summer 2011.

Mondays for example:

Aircraft 1:

06:30 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 08:40
09:05 - Leeds - Palma - Leeds - 15:00
15:45 - Leeds - Murcia - Leeds - 22:15

Aircraft 2

06:50 - Leeds - Fuerteventura - Leeds - 16:15
17:20 - Leeds - Malaga - Leeds - 23:55

Aircraft 3

07:05 - Leeds - Nantes - Leeds - 11:10
11:35 - Leeds - Montpellier - Leeds - 16:30
16:55 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 18:55

Some increases:- Fuerteventura carries through from winter. New Palma Saturday flight, new Sunday Malaga flight.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 23:49
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As indeed is the revenue it generates.
And therefore not contributing towards a reduction in this year's profits.
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Old 2nd Nov 2010, 23:58
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Summer 2011 now out for most destinations for Leeds Bradford and it looks as though there will be a 3rd based aircraft at Leeds Bradford for Summer 2011.

Mondays for example:

Aircraft 1:

06:30 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 08:40
09:05 - Leeds - Palma - Leeds - 15:00
15:45 - Leeds - Murcia - Leeds - 22:15

Aircraft 2

06:50 - Leeds - Fuerteventura - Leeds - 16:15
17:20 - Leeds - Malaga - Leeds - 23:55

Aircraft 3

07:05 - Leeds - Nantes - Leeds - 11:10
11:35 - Leeds - Montpellier - Leeds - 16:30
16:55 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 18:55

Some increases:- Fuerteventura carries through from winter. New Palma Saturday flight, new Sunday Malaga flight.
There will only be 2 based a/c. The days and times that the routes operate will be changer over the next few weeks.

16:55 - Leeds - Dublin - Leeds - 18:55
It will be DUB - LBA - DUB with DUB based a/c
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 11:55
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Has Ryanair cancelled Alicante to Derry for 2011 no flights are appearing in the timetable but others are
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 12:50
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Winter

Ryanair had for many years been able to fly at very low cost over the winter and make small profits on many routes all year.

higher costs means that filling planes at very low seat prices makes a loss in winter. Ryanair is losing a lot of the off peak traffic that made the buisness model work so well 5 years ago. He has also lost the ablity to buy planes for so much less than he could sell them for after a few years. The owned planes could suffer a big write down in value on sale. The alternative is for him to fly an aging fleet. Others like Easyjet could then get the next generation of planes and overtake MOL.
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 13:12
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Ryanair had for many years been able to fly at very low cost over the winter and make small profits on many routes all year.
Nope there were many routes loss making during winter but thats why you have reduced services

higher costs means that filling planes at very low seat prices makes a loss in winter. Ryanair is losing a lot of the off peak traffic that made the buisness model work so well 5 years ago. He has also lost the ablity to buy planes for so much less than he could sell them for after a few years. The owned planes could suffer a big write down in value on sale. The alternative is for him to fly an aging fleet. Others like Easyjet could then get the next generation of planes and overtake MOL.
Which low seat prices is this ? The ones where they have increased since last year ?

As for U2 overtaking FR ..............with what exactly ?

FR is still buying planes cheaply with 64 due in 11 and 12 and options up to 2014 for up to 173 more.

You keep coming on here with idle speculation with not a single bit of fact and then make something up for the next time when asked for detail.
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 14:00
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What does it mean?

I have been checking flights from Alicante to various destinations and when looking for example at July next year a lot simply display 7 airplanes with a red line through them. I presume this means the flights for next year are not yet loaded.

But when checking Alicante to Derry it displays no planes. It is the only destination to do this. Is this significant? Does it mean ALC-LDY is for the axe.
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 14:19
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Ryanair have dropped another digit on the traffic number for october. last month they claim to have sold 6.84M this month it 7.0M.

the half year slid shows has them going up to 299 planes at the end of 2013 but I cannot see where they are going to park all the ones that they do not have profitable routes. It seems FR are cutting in Ireland, UK, Germany and France. Having 64 more planes coming though the door and onto the books seems like very bad news.

When I give facts they are just ignored by racodo.
look at when they made a pre-tax pre exceptional profit in winter (H2)
In 2006/7
H1 profit 329m euro - full year 401 m euro hence 72 million euro profit in winter
in 2007/8
H1 profit 408m euro - full year 481 m euro - hence 73 million profit in winter.

now they are going to make a 50m to 70m loss in winter
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 14:42
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Befree

Nope they have not said they are going to make a loss in Winter, they were very clear that while they have some indication of revenue numbers for Q3, they were not in a position to state as such for Q4.
"Our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year remains cautious as we have little visibility on Q4 yields."
They stated using caveat above that their profit will be at top end of forecast but thats subject to lots of things.

As for parking planes well I think we can go back 2 year when everyone was stating with absolute fact that Ryanair couldn't take delivery of 42 planes last year, yet they did and grew traffic accordingly. by 7.6 Million passengers.

They also have already taken delivery of 45 aircraft in this calendar year and grown passenger numbers by 7.2 Million.

Face it yet again you are caught by your own posts.
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 15:11
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racedo the worry is that there is a never ending list of Ryanair haters who will queue up to rehash the same old argument that was aired and settled ten pages back.

The logical leap from "Things are tougher than they were in better days" to Private Fraser's "We're doooooooomed" is a rather large one in the case of growing cash rich company like Ryanair. It's a fascinating take on the human condition watching people queue up to bash 'em, as from any perspective most airlines are
1) Less punctual
2) Fly older aircraft
3) Don't fly to as many places in Europe
4) but are far less enthralling!

Ryanair are clearly screwed. Why? Because.

racedo one cannot argue with that but my compliments for trying, and being informative if occasionally selective.....
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 15:38
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racedo the worry is that there is a never ending list of Ryanair haters who will queue up to rehash the same old argument that was aired and settled ten pages back.

racedo one cannot argue with that but my compliments for trying, and being informative if occasionally selective.....
...............
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Old 3rd Nov 2010, 15:52
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racedo & Skipness One Echo,

Cannot fault your latest posts....

MM
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