Ryanair - 8

[INKJET]

I think we are entering a new and interesting time in the low cost market of which Ryanair are of course the biggest player. Historically legacy airline operated routes pretty much year round and reduced frequency over the winter months, they lost a lot of money in winter but not quite as much as they made in the summer, the nett result was a small ish profit for the year and year round services with prices higher in Summer than would have been the case if they could park up and more importantly not pay their staff in the winter.

With out sourcing of contracted services, handling, cleaning, check in and now pilots, airlines can fly when routes are profitable and not when there not!!

Of course there are still some cost for parking your fleet over the winter, but i guess if you can promise AND deliver squidmillion pax and have a new base a week you can probably park your airplanes all over Europe for free and that is pretty much what most airpark (sorry airports) look like with heaps of Harps parked up, its a brilliant strategy because it means that you don't loose (as much) in the winter which means you don't have to make as much in the Summer ie your charges can be less than other competitors who employ people year round (Jet2 take note)

So what can go wrong? , you have billions in cash a route network that allows few other airlines a chance to start with out being driven off on pricing a huge customer base that flys with you because your cheap and on time and thus far safe(very safe) they have trained masses of pilots (profitably) and are unafraid of any national government or indeed the EU?

I am unsure what effect (positive or negative) the looming sovereign debt crisis in Ireland may have?

Threats? well clearly the raft of EU governments imposing so called environmental taxes is an issue but if they all do it your back to a level playing field?

In moving into more traditional airports there is some risk that after a few years the airports might re think the benefit equation of having a large LoCo on site all year, but flying only in peak months?

On balance i think O'leary probably right that it will end up with a few very large airlines groups LH AF/KLM BA/IB with protected hubs, the IT the few that are left that is and Ryanair/Easy and niche players

Bring on 2011

[mickyman]

INKJET

I'm still waiting for Ryanairs 'LUCK' to run out!

MM

[INKJET]

Its not luck

Mickeyman you don't make that much money based on luck, sure luck helps but you make your own luck.

But in this industry bad luck is lurking around every corner, having lots of cash sorts out the men from the wannabes

[mickyman]

INKJET

The Ryanair detractors seem to put the airlines
continuing performance down to 'LUCK' and not
planning - something I have been quite willing
to correct in the past on this forum.

MM

Good to see that BA is digging itself out of the hole
at last.

[befree]

Befree

Nope they have not said they are going to make a loss in Winter

Ryanair have reported the profit for the half year that is far more than their expected whole year profit. They are expecting in effect to have something like 60m euros loss in the the winter that needs taking off the summer profit to give the year end figure. If you can do maths knowing H1 and also knowing H1+H2 allows you to work out H2.

[racedo]

Ryanair have reported the profit for the half year that is far more than their expected whole year profit. They are expecting in effect to have something like 60m euros loss in the the winter that needs taking off the summer profit to give the year end figure. If you can do maths knowing H1 and also knowing H1+H2 allows you to work out H2.

Wrong they are very clear in what they are saying in stating the caveat that they have no visibility on revenue in Q4.
Stating in line with forecast or at upper end of forecast is NOT stating what it will be nor is it stating they will make a loss.

[pee]

@ Cyrano (Lappeenranta / Russia issue)

I did answer your question, but unfortunately it's gone as my text went to the last page of the Ryanair-7 thread truncated after the database error.

Anyway, if you are interested, I just came across the English-language publication made by (probably) Russian-born bachelor of Business Administration from Finnish University, analysing the market potential of Lappeenranta airport towards Russia. His thesis are from May, when the flights have just begun. Many details you can find there.

This week Ryanair started its new connection to LPP, from Charleroi. Amazingly (or should it really be such a surprise?) and in spite of low-season, the first flight from Lappeenranta to Belgium was almost sold-out and the LF approached 100%.

[Cyrano]

Thanks, Pee!

[befree]

H1

Ryanair Half Year Profits Rise 17% To €452m

Full year

we now believe that full year Net Profit will exceed the upper end of our previous forecast range (€350m to €375m) and will now finish (subject to Q4 yields) within a range of €380m to €400m.

Even with some uncertinty over revenue in Q4 they are clearly expecting a loss in H2 and have told the city to expect full year net profits to be less than half year net profits. They are expecting to be around a €20m window and even if they were well high it would be a loss in the winter.

[Lord Lardy]

Stating in line with forecast or at upper end of forecast is NOT stating what it will be nor is it stating they will make a loss.

On Morning Ireland, a breakfast news program on Irish radio on Nov 1st, Michael Cawley, the deputy CEO of Ryanair says in an interview and I quote his exact words "We are going to lose up to 50 million in the second half of the year" He volunteers the information himself and makes the point that this 50m loss will be less than the 70 million loss in the same period last year. Dosen't get much clearer than that.

These appear to be a good set of results overall by Ryanair. Just making the post to clear up the argument in relation to a second half loss.

Podcast here of the interview under Business section Nov 1st about halfway down the page. The loss remark is made 1 minute into the interview.

[racedo]

Despite what is said on RTE the statements that count are those to the Stock Exchange and are clear they have no idea what Q4 revenue will be so he is making a forecast nothing else.

IF a double dip happens they could lose €200 million but if demand firms up the could just as easily make that as well.

I love the idea that all of a sudden that oh well they MAY lose money in 2nd half seems to be this week reason for hating Ryanair from usual mob but until results are known post March 31st there is no way to know.

[befree]

Thanks Lord Lardy for finding the clip. Most airlines make a profit in the summer and a loss in the winter. Ryanair was different as it used to be able to make winter profits as well as summer ones. It is a very important change. The ryanair model could be changing to something like the easyjet one! FRs space at the bottom of the market is getting less profitable in the winter.

[LEEDS APPROACH]

Leeds Base

A question to Jamie2K9.

Why are you so sure that LBA will remain a 2 aircraft base next summer?

[Jamie2k9]

A question to Jamie2K9.

Why are you so sure that LBA will remain a 2 aircraft base next summer?

I can't confirm if it will be 2 or 3 a/c next summer.

Alicante, Barcelona, Faro all operated by non based aircraft.
Dublin morning by Leeds aircraft and evening by Dublin aircraft.
Carcassonne & Girona dropped for summer 2011.

There is not enough routes been operated by Leeds aircraft to justify a 3 based a/c.

Venice & Gdansk is not on sale yet but will be Leed a/c
Pisa will be a Pisa based a/c.
Weeze will be Weeze based a/c

[frfly]

I would expect Leeds to have 3. I'd also expect Edinburgh to have 7 or 8. All other UK airports I would think would stay similar to this year, maybe with a slight reduction in STN.

The schedule is nowhere near finished, it might take until after Christmas for it to be fully up and running.

[jpta2000]

Any changes to Malta base?

The start of a 1-plane base in MLA seems to have been a good move for FR - the good performance of the base was commented upon in FR's half-yearly report.

The national airline, KM, are in deep financial trouble and have already indicated that they will reduce the number of flights flown next summer.

Jamie2K9 or frfly might know - are there any plans to increase the number of FR based aircraft in summer 11?

JP.

[frfly]

No strong rumours to suggest another aircraft but I would be shocked if another one was not added. The only problem is Ryanair have to agree routes with the authorities in advance, and now Air Malta are in trouble it's a question of does the government protect Air Malta or have in place an airline that can continue to deliver tourism growth to the island....which is in no doubt Ryanair.

I would expect at least 1 more to be added, maybe just for 6 months April-October in the same way ALC and AGP are increased in size for the summer for holiday routes.

[apaul]

Ryanair is probably one of the worst options for regions to develop tourism in the medium term or longer. As plenty of places in Italy, Spain, France Croatia and indeed Ireland have already found out, Ryanair will move on when it can no longer squeeze 'marketing support' from the public purse and little or no landing fee deals from the airports. Plus the high baggage charges and poor customer service make Ryanair a lot less attractive for family holidays than the headline cheap fares suggest. EasyJet and Jet2 are better partners to develop tourism.

[racedo]

Plus the high baggage charges and poor customer service make Ryanair a lot less attractive for family holidays than the headline cheap fares suggest.

So you reckon that in Summer just gone that booking FR rather than U2 was likely to have left people with poorer customer service ?

Even the U2 people who saw cancellations all over the place due to lack of crew resources would struggle to back that one up.

As for the bags well funnily enough the majority of passengers are now travelling lights with bags so that blows that theory out the window.

The ontime stats speak for themselves.

[jpta2000]

Frfly,

thanks for the reply .

JP