Possibly a slight half year profit but undoubtedly a reduction in overall profits which combined with the increase in unit costs, fuel, and average fares puts a whole different slant on yesterdays figures, especially with the fact that some of Ryanair's main competitors are also starting to show signs of recovery in some areas.
ASFKAP, you miss the point. I assume you're aware that the aircraft wouldn't have been paid for up front even if they had been delivered in H1 - being able to do so and still report a profit is impressive though. In reality, even if they took delivery of 8 aircraft on April 1st the impact on the current half year's profit wouldn't have exceeded €10m (assuming they're not needed and sitting on the ground). So now we have a €442 million profit for H1 - I'd hardly call that a 'whole different slant on yesterday's figures'.
That is an extra 200 million euros for the summer. They will fly a lot less in the winter but still face a big hike in fuel costs.
An extra €200m and still able to report €452m profit. Their per unit winter fuel costs will be broadly the same as H1 (obviously less overall due to less flights overall) given that 90% of Q3 is hedged at $730pmt and 90% of Q4 at $745pmt.
It also is clear they will find it impossble to have +12% fares in the winter.
It's also impossible (or at least highly improbable) that they will have +40% fares this winter. Or that they will carry 300 million passengers. Given that they haven't targeted either of these figures then who cares? Based on the +12% H1 increase and Q3 forward bookings, full year yield increase is expected to be at the upper end of the +5% to +10% range they previously guided.